The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Festive period?
Very Christian/Western-centric.
Tanzania is around 60% Christian/35% Muslim.
So not everyone will consider the period a holiday.
They are getting on with that pad tout-suite, so it doesn't look like they'll go hell for leather doing the pad (nothing existed two weeks ago, now it is nearly finished, roadway and all), moving the rig etc and then down tools for a month.
They appear to be under severe time pressure, including drilling in the rain, but maybe there is a reason?
The authority to issue shares at the 2023 AGM was scrapped, to much fanfare, at the AGM by IS.
he trumpeted it saying - "see we don't need cash" - "it is impossible for us to raise now, we don't have the authority!"
Then they did that cake box/cash box thing and the shares, and the managements reputation has never recovered.
Not only was the AGM brought forward, but so were publication of the accounts.
Just thought I'd give my interpretation of where we might be drilling at Itumbula-2.
We seem to be moving deeper into the fault system.
Usual caveats apply DYOR, IMHO etc.
They give us very little to go on so numbering a faults etc, is provisional. This is the result of a number of overlays on Google Earth so some definition lost.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53351143405/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53349819357/in/dateposted-public/
If they moved any further to the SW then they could end up bypassing the Karoo altogether, and head straight for the basement.
This is being built lightning fast.
20 days ago there was nothing there
15 days ago - no image
10 days ago - outline of a roadway track
5 days ago - start of civils and site clearance
0 days ago - completed pad and cellar dug out ready for concreting
Does anyone think they are going to do lightning civils, probably completed by this weekend, rig up starting probably Monday - and then just stop?
Unlikely - spud in 14 days, drilling at AGM, then...
Geology - sits on the A-A' line from the end of august presentation.
Begs the question of why build the Itumbula-1 pad at all?
They did stop work on it from around 25-9-23 to 15-10-23 but then went ahead again.
the Itumbula pad is really recent, within the last 10 days.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53349490325/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53349274758/in/dateposted-public/
Sentinel this afternoon.
It is here, Itumbula-2.
Complete by end of weekend?
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53349003441/in/dateposted-public/
Land Grab going on in Tanzania at the moment, but not of the 19th Century variety fortunately.
"▪️✔️STAMICO Projects Named The Ministry of Mines has auctioned about 441 licenses for the exploration of important and strategic minerals and 46 licenses for the mining of these minerals, which are opportunities for investors to enter into joint ventures with the license holders to develop them and finally establish mines. This was stated on November 21, 2023 by the Assistant Commissioner of Mines from the Ministry of Mines, Engineer Ally Samaje, when giving a Ministry presentation on the first day of the Business Forum between the UK and Tanzania, where he explained to the audience about important minerals and strategy in Tanzania, the opportunities available in investment in these minerals and the Government's strategies in attracting investment. Engineer Samaje said that among the licenses, the National Mining Corporation (STAMICO) has projects for the exploration of important minerals of lithium, graphite, rare earth elements and copper which are in various stages of development and which investors are welcome to cooperate with STAMICO to develop them to the stage of mining for the benefit of both parties"
https://twitter.com/Hakingowi/status/1727290084595056869
Needs translating, as I think it is Swahili.
Can't see LB in the audience, but she needs to slam in those applications!
And then tell us about the "secret" applications and any new ones.
Just to follow up on earlier posts regarding the Itumbula-2 location.
I had earlier speculated that Itumbula-2 could be next to the Itumbula Helium Springs as some civils work appeared to have been conducted there.
Overall view of the area.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53348358196/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53345270331/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53345370962/in/dateposted-public/
It was a bit off the wall for various reasons notwithstanding the lack of seismic.
however there is another location of interest. I had earlier mentioned an unfinished roadway running NW of the Itumbula-1 pad location, and this looks more interesting than I first thought.
It is here,
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53348825109/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53348561261/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53347715327/in/dateposted-public/
I'm variously calling it Itumbula-2/3 depending on what mood I'm in.
It has advantages, close to a fault line and on two seismic lines.
But LB said in her last interview 20-11-2023 "Civils already been completed"
Sentinel on 17-11-23 showed that the civils appeared to have just been started, following completion of the roadway. From the speed of their previous works it would be several weeks before they were complete. Rush job anyone?
Sentinel this evening may give more, but clouds may intervene.
Don't worry too much about the bridges, one looks a bit dodgy from our point of view but they are all in much better condition than they were a couple of years ago.
If LB thinks transport will take a week then she know it will be done in that time.
Don't forget they've used this road to transport most things from Camp Rukwa to Tai-3 already this year.
The distance from Tai-3 pad to the main road is around 2.5km.
From the main road junction to the Itumbula-1 junction is around 16km.
To Itumbula-1 junction to that pad is around 3.5km.
But - if I've got the Itumbula-2 pad location right (not 100% certain, but) that pad is immediately off the main road itself, so from the Tai-3 road junction it is around 18km.
There are a couple of bridges but they appear in good repair.
Some transport equipment was probably always retained at Camp Rukwa, no good having your own rig if you can't move it, so they probably have sufficient on hand in order to be able to do the job. Grab a tractor unit and off you go!
Looks like they may also have a tractor unit there also.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53199207724/in/dateposted-public/
I did used to think, a couple of years ago, that someone could be building up a big stake, unbeknownst to anybody - but I've now got rid of such foolish notions.
The share price tells its own story.
Not impossible that someone is building, but unlikely.
However I do hear rumours that there are those who think He1's licences are good (very good), are looked upon admiringly by others and if there is one slip up too many on the part of He1 then they will be pounced upon, and the licences prised away.
Make of that what you will. Possibly just tittle tattle.
"Yet across the gulf of space, minds that are to our minds as ours are to those of the beasts that perish, intellects vast and cool and unsympathetic, regarded this earth with envious eyes, and slowly and surely drew their plans against us"
Across the gulf of Lake Rukwa, maybe.
Sorry gogs!
No TR1's here ever! ( caveat - there has been a couple by a lse listed company, but that was a question of their internal compliance).
This is BVI registered, different rules.
Very convenient.
Funny how they'll likely be drilling Itumbula-2 at the date of the AGM.
Takes a bit of heat off the directors.
And if they can drill Itumbula-2 in December, which is one of the rainiest months, then they can certainly be drilling Tai-3A in January when the rains are easing off.
Provided they don't try that cake box or cash box chicanery nonsense again (severely damaging to company and management I think) then you can have a bang bang drilling scenario coming up to Christmas - 100M @ 3p, to get them through to May/June 2024.
So prior to then it's Itumbula-2, Tai-3A, CPR, rig overhaul, JV/farm out, and then on to Eyasi '24.
Eyasi '24 won't wait, hence drilling through the rains, which has always been a big no-no prior to now.
All IMHO, DYOR etc
PS The Ministry of Minerals has a high powered delegation in London at the moment, I wonder if they're making house calls?
Oh, sometimes I think that I should be taken out there, trussed up, tied to the rig, and banned from posting on this board or flikr ever again.
It is a great hobby, but financially expensive and mostly painful.
I should take up roulette.
Just trying to gauge timelines here - all a bit academic really, as it is only the traders who are making any money, and even then it must be hard at the moment (2.9p - who would have thought it.)
Misery.
Anyway -
14-10-23 - RNS -drilling recommenced on Tai-3 from 100M
16-10-23 - RNS - last mention of Itumbula in an RNS
20-10-23 - Tweets - last mention of Itumbula-1 in a tweet.
30-10-23 - RNS - Tai-3 @ 1445M, close to basement
12-11-23 - Itumbula-1 pad completed between 2-11-2023 and 12-11-2023 (Sentinel didn't download on 7-11-23)
12-11-23 - Work commences on Itumbula-2 between 2-11-23 and 12-11-23, complete by 20-11-23.
So I'd say from this that doubts were creeping in over the wisdom of going for Itumbula-1 after 20-10-23, tweets up to then had been regular 10-10-23, 16-10-23, 20-10-23, the next tweet was due around 25-10-23 and never happened. Certainly appears to be influenced by what they found close to basement. Then a very rapid move to Itumbula-2, as soon as the Itumbula-1 pad completed.
Maybe they knew around 25-10-23 that they were not encountering free helium, and by around 2-11-23 knew that they had to go somewhere where they were certain that lots of it exists.
Nothing else would cut the mustard, as failure on the next well really isn't an option.
(It is of course, but not for long term shareholders, or management credibility.)