Member Info for skittish

Brimsness - newbies are learning that owning He1 shares can be an "interesting" experience.

I thought that they were cheap when they fell to 2p, having fallen 80% in a round 4 months.

Little did I know that they had another 90% to fall.

Not 90% in total but 90% from 2p ie 98% in total.

If you're not prepared for a wild rise, in both directions, then you need to belt up, and fast.

That's right if it is handled correctly it could be a win-win situation.

But I guess things are never quite that straightforward.

Looking back to early December Siemens sold their entire 11% stake crashing the share price from around 13p to 6p (the sale price), before it crashed again to 3.5p on Decembers payroll not being met.

The "billionaire association news" dropped and we're back up to 12pish, and for the time being holding there.

One could envisage a situation in which the company late November/early December were sounding out the major shareholders on support for a right issue, knowing Decembers payroll could not be met. Siemens reaction was to take fright and sell at just 6p, having put money in at 55p only a couple of years before. They obviously were not willing to put more money in.

I would imagine discussions are the same at present.

That the majority of workers were willing to defer their entire December payroll suggest considerable loyalty, and that Mr Curren is playing hardball, preferring that he take the drastic step of asking the workers to defer payroll rather than agreeing to alternative finance arrangements.

From a brief look at the figures it looks like SND are short of around £4M pa, so you would think that would be the minimum they would need so as to give a 12 month runway.

Maybe a combination of loan, and rights issue?

Money runs out end of March, unless they can work out alternative arrangements.

Well with the share price around 4p, and the need to raise I'd leak a story (this is all hypothetical, of course) around a well known billionaire and tech entrepreneur having approached the company to use their expertise and products in the said billionaires technological devices.

Having lifted the share price, I'd then seek to throw in the winning of a few new significant contracts.

Then raise at the best price that I could.

But it is clear from the resolutions at the last AGM that the directors would prefer a rights issue pro rate and can issue up to 58M new shares in a rights issue (issued and paid for pro rata by all shareholders), but if it were a placing then there is only authority to issue around 8.7M new shares.

It would appear that Mr Curren does not want to be diluted, and even if he has to be then only marginally so.

I have no idea about his personal finances, however in view of the resolutions passed at the last AGM I would imagine that in the event of needing to raise cash he would have thought about what was required and would have the wherewithal to maintain his shareholding or only be marginally diluted.

Of course they could always call an EGM and pass new resolutions, although time is short for that, and there are also more exotic ways of raising eg cashbox, but he seems to have set out his stall fairly clearly.

This is a BVI registered company trading on Aim.

Whilst certain UK registered entities may feel obliged ethically to register TR1's there is no legal obligation to do.

So if you are a foreigner or simply don't feel like it you don't have to notify the company and no TR1.

Different rules as it is not a UK company, it makes a difference.

Very much easier to have secrets.

Yes, I think that is a big clue £4.7M (depending on what is left from the previous raise) isn't enough to do anything significant.

That added to the other clues suggests something more low key than roadways and drill pads, but perhaps more significant long term.

I think Itumbula may take a while, so am watching other areas.

LB may RNS but not likely prior to the bush telegraph, and flickers on other websites springing into action.

She will RNS/tweet when ready, but everyone knows it takes quite a while for a gal to get ready, especially if *you* are in a hurry.

I too will see it to the end.

Will be interesting to see what Noble say tomorrow (very different PR - sometimes too different),

Extraordinary if they are only to drill a couple of shallow wells for the rest of 2024?

that is part of the problem at the moment, it is mostly cloudy, and will be until end april, so i'm sort of kicking my heels.

doing research and watching and waiting for other things to happen, which could be signals for future events.

but they play their cards very (very) close to their chest, so news is sp****.

i have around a dozen sites that i watch for just a flicker of change, but at the moment flickers are few and far between, so i wait.

frustrating, but with this share the satellite is likely to reveal what is going on long before and tweet or rns.

Half-of-2

If there is anything for newbies to learn about this share and the Saint Lorna way of doing things is that PR is irrelevant.

They simply don't care about it. You've been into this share for a while now (maybe off and on) so surely do know.

Significant events will be announced days, weeks even months after they have occurred, even RNS'd long after, so anyone expecting a blaze of Aim like publicity, I suspect is going to be sadly disappointed.

LB deals with matters in a "different" way, and on "different" timescales to most.

I don't know when news will come, although I suspect it may be not what most are expecting, but people need to be prepared for the wait.

Likely good, but a surprise and it may be some time.

So the wait could be a while.....

Hold long and tight, and test those nerves of steel, because if you don't know where those are, you need to find them and quick.

Love the project, no longer love the share.

I don't know the identity of the Tier 1 motor manufacturer, but if Elon is using SND chips for Neuralink then it doesn't take a genius to work out who the motor manufacturer might be.

The staff deferring salaries was in the 5-2-24 RNS, all paid up to date now.

Recruitment look here

https://www.sondrel.com/careers/vacancies

A company still hiring rather than making cutbacks suggests it remains quite viable.

Yes, and if you look at their website they are still recruiting staff in all geographical areas, and offering that they can work from home, so they can really live almost anywhere.

Doesn't sound like a company expecting to run out of cash, despite their current difficulties.

Summat brewing, chunky buys coming in this lunchtime, squeezing it higher?

The last RNS 8-2-2024, here -

Statement re Share Price Movement

Sondrel (AIM:SND), a leading provider of ultra-complex chips for leading global technology brands, notes the movement in its share price and recent press speculation.

Sondrel remains one of only a few companies capable of designing and supplying higher-spec, complex chips built on the most advanced semiconductor technologies, and the Group's customer base continues to include leading global technology brands.

The Company remains encouraged that demand for Sondrel's ASIC services, including in the US, remains strong and that the Group continues to trade in line with current market expectations with a number of new ASIC business opportunities at advanced stages of negotiation. The Group does not comment on the identity of customers."

Sounded all positive to me. No words of caution, "we know of no reason" etc, just bullishness. We know there are financial difficulties over cashflow, however the words not used in the statement suggest to me that these will be well on their way to being resolved. The higher the share price the easier they will be resolved.

There is a big gap to be filled, hopefully sooner rather than later.

I'll refrain from making share price predictions on here, as one who was recently sitting on a 98% loss after believing I'd got in at a "bargain" price.

I did "fall in love" with this share, and fell out of love with it also. I still "love" the project, and believe it has great potential, but the share itself, not anymore. I'm not so badly off having retrenched a somewhat, and put a bit into US tech a little while ago, so still willing to play the game. Some were not so lucky.

The project is great, but the share, not so much.

Anyway where from here?

I'm not so sure we'll get results very soon, could be wrong of course but labs like to take their time, and dance to their own tune on timing, hence the opportune fundraise. CPR, at least 3 months I'd say. And then off to more funding, well have to be paid for. JV at Itumbula?,Likely to take many months to negotiate, look at what happened to Nobles JV, all whizzbang, smoke and flashing lights and then nothing....

But I think that there is much going on in the background.

These are the various licences, already posted, He1 blue, Noble yellow, Kidunda purple.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53207672875/in/dateposted-public/

Now take a slide from Nobles latest presentation of 30-1-2024 here

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53523716110/in/dateposted-public/

Effectively they're saying that they are fully funded to do a lot of talking to people and drill a shallow well, presumably using one of Tanzania's water well rigs (300M) at Mbelele-1, test flow and small pilot plant sometime after mid year and ....that's it!

Looks to me like no more "deep" drills in 2024 for them.

But we know that they have a drill on site and presumably at present it is housed in the white structure here at Mbelele-2, on the right

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53508263060/in/dateposted-public/

So Noble have a rig at Rukwa, but at present no plans or funds to use it in 2024, concentrating on their pilot plant.

He1 also have a rig, our famous and now "reliable" and tested Predator now at Itumbula. We also at present have no funds to drill.

So what gives? He1 raised £4.7M a few days ago, not enough to drill, but enough for housekeeping and licences and a bit of consulting and number crunching.

Last weekend I speculated that our Predator could be off to Eyasi in early 2024 to look for oil, gas and helium.

This is a map of Eyasi, showing our 3 admitted licences, the 5 noble licences and our 9 applications, applied for approved, but not yet issued, but never an RNS or mention about anything of this on He1's website.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53315420152/in/dateposted-public/

And Rukwa Helium (T) Ltd recently gave up its licence, so if we got that block we would have a clear run through the Eyasi/Wembere basin. I suspect quite a bit of our £4.7M will go on these licences and some number crunching prep.

cont/....

Part 2

Cont/...

Now as I've outlined previously this Eyasi/Wembere well drilling is a project of national importance to Tanzania. They've been trying to get it off the ground for the last 20 years and by joining up with He1, and doing 2D seismic last summer and 300M drilling in 2019 it looks like they may finally do so.

It is all wrapped up in regional politics and Tanzania scrapping with Kenya to be top dog in East Africa, but for a domestic company (PURA) for the first time to be drilling for oil/gas onshore Tanzania would be a big coup for the government, and it will happen via this agreement

https://www.reddit.com/r/HeliumOne/comments/17a1ac0/just_an_fyi_the_government_of_tanzania_through/

Also, incidentally, never RNS'd.

We provide the rig, technical expertise, probably (likely) some cash and they provide a free run at those licences and some technical support.

This also all ties in with a $5Bn project for an East African Oil Pipeline, construction is to begin Q1 2024, and it will run within a few km of the Eyasi/Wembere oil licences, and it would be really useful if Tanzania had something to put into the pipeline as opposed to just being a transit country.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Crude_Oil_Pipeline

So a project of National Importance, a Tanzanian general election is in 2025, much positive publicity, and He1, as outlined last week is potentially sitting at this top table.

But Tanzania will call the shots, so our rig will likely (IMHO,DYOR) be co-opted for around 4 wells at Eyasi this year, drilling on one of the seismic lines here

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53274349179/in/dateposted-public/

The starting gun will be the issue of those 9/10 new licences.

So what of Nobles rig if they're not using that?

Well, there could be still plenty going on in Rukwa.

Remember Kidunda our next door neighbours at Itumbula, just 4km to the east of Itumbula W?

They're here - right next door to us.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53522843498/in/dateposted-public/

Well as of 2023 they were proposing that an Aussie company D3 Energy buy them out for shares and then float on the ASX. Following our drill the value of their acreage must have increased somewhat, like say 100x, and all for doing nothing, just sitting there.

It does perhaps help that the present owners of Kidunda are also the owners of Pulsar Helium in the US and the same people who were originally directors and and the major shareholders of...yes you've guessed it HE1.

And whilst were at somewhat incestuous relationships it just so happens that Greg Columbus who is a director of D3 Energy also happens to sit on the board of Noble Helium.

And whilst He1 and Noble do not appear presently to be cooperating over their respective rigs, I bet 2023's rig cooperation agreement is still alive and capable of resurrection, if needs be.

Cont/

Part 3

Cont/..

So as Noble suddenly seem to have the need of a drilling rig I'd wager that it will be used by D3 Energy/Kidunda to drill that big juicy target around 4km from Itumbula W with what could be a very good chance of success.

And we could possibly get a well or two in too, subject to funding agreeing a JV or similar by end of summer, remember that rig co opertaion agreement?

And whilst we're at incestuous relationships here is another map showing what is around a a 300 metre gap between He1 and Kidunda at Itumbula, a sort of "No Mans Land" area.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53522843498/in/dateposted-public/

Except that in 2022 we did own that strip but relinquished it just prior to Kidunda applying for their licence.

And in 2022 we also shot around 3km of seismic over what is now their licence area, useful if you wanted to check on how accurate the legacy seismic was, I guess?

So plenty going on here, but I'm just not sure it will all happen as quickly as some expect.

And with all the smoke and mirrors, and incest you perhaps see why I can only love the project but no longer love the share.

All IMHO, DYOR etc

Third slide should be this one

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53294530511/in/dateposted-public/

Onsolidground, will these do? A bit old and posted before but maybe of interest to newbies...

Noble, He1, Kidunda licences and wells

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53207672875/in/dateposted-public/

Overview of the fault system and Nobles licences, wells drilled etc

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53309673949/in/dateposted-public/

Fault systems and the relationship to the Rungwe Volcanoes, the theorised source of the heat to release the helium from the source rock, showing the faults running directly from the volcanoes into He1's licence area

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53207672875/in/dateposted-public/

Theorised route of the helium

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53291973974/in/dateposted-public/

A brief overview of licence swapping, somewhat out of date already.....

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53312737487/in/dateposted-public/

This sort of cooperation/swapping would never be admitted to by any of the parties involved.

Itumbula W is important, but it isn't the only show in town.

If anything it is something of a sideshow, but has been an important proof of concept.

But it proved a number of things to the market and investors,

a) that gaseous helium can be extracted in high concentrations, 4.7% is a world beater. No news as yet on quantity, no doubt that will come.

b) the rig has been proved to work without issue, this is really important. More importantly He1 has proved that it is able to drill a well without issue, that it has the technical capacity to do so. Out of the 3 major wells Tai-1/1A, Tai-3 and Itumbula W this is the first well, not only to be completed successfully but also to achieve a result.

c) He1 has now raised a number of times in recent months, proving financial capacity. to long term holders the prices are very disappointing, 6p, .25p, now 1.5p, but the important matter is that they can raise.

They have now raised £4.7M. Serendipity that the amount raised is the same figure as the helium concentration - maybe.

They say it is vaguely allows for "sufficient working capital to progress its planning for the next stage of the work programme in Tanzania"

No mention of what or where.

I suspect that most of it will not be spent at Rukwa, £4.7M isn't enough really for even one well, suspect it is for staged payments of some sort, and there will be another fun ding round at much higher prices once the drilling season starts around May 2024, following CPR, and maybe Rukwa farm out/JV etc etc.

I mentioned earlier today that the licence situation had changed significantly over the last few months around Rukwa. there is quite a bit of fresh licence area now potentially up for grabs.

But the licence area has also changed at Eyasi.

This is what He1 would have us believe is the Eyasi prospect - 3 licences covering around 800sq km.

https://www.helium-one.com/projects/eyasi-project/

The Tz government portal however reveals that He1 has actually applied and been approved for another 9 licences, with another recently vacated by a third party covering around an additional 2500sq km. the applications commenced on the day LB became CEO. This has never been RNS'd but was admitted at the AGM.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53315420152/in/dateposted-public/

These applications are important as He1 entered into a JV with the Tz government on 13th October 2023, again never RNS'd.

https://www.reddit.com/r/HeliumOne/comments/17a1ac0/just_an_fyi_the_government_of_tanzania_through/

Eyasi is important as it potentially holds large amounts of oil and gas, as well as helium, and the Tz government has been trying and failing to get the project off the ground for around the last 20 years

https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/national/tanzania-to-strike-huge-oil-deposits-in-wembere-eyasi-basin-3869452

Continued...

Part 2

continued...

The Eyasi project is the reason for the formation of the new company East Africa Holdings Limited, created the same day 20th November 2023 as the results from Tai-3 came in, presumably the results there were sufficiently good to trigger some sort of milestone with the Tz government, allowing the company to be set up

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53508216124/in/dateposted-public/

The result from Itumbula is important as it satisfies the conditions for the Strategic Partnership with the Tz government over Eyasi moving forwards

The conditions come from this 2019 presentation by the Tz government at the Geological Society in London

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53340551497/in/dateposted-public/

Itumbula proved that He1 has

1. Recognised capacity - they own a rig (unusual for a small explorer)

2. Technical knowledge - well successfully drilled, and find confirmed

3. Financial Capability - two fundraises in quick succession

This is from the same presentation

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53336848112/in/dateposted-public/

The geophysics and drilling (to 300M) were carried out in 2019, the 2D by PURA over summer 2023, and the strategic partnership with He1 inked, but not RNS'd in October 2023.

This is how the He1 approved licence area interacts with the oil/gas licences and the area surveyed in 2D last summer.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53315769617/in/dateposted-public/

Rukwa Helium (T) Ltd gave up its licence a few months ago, and if He1 applied for that it would have a clear run across the whole of the Eyasi basin.

It is this prospect which is where the real value lies I believe, and Rukwa, whilst important is just a side show, proof of concept if you like.

The licence applications here, the purchase of the rig, the JV with the government, setting up of a new company and the hasty recent fundraise, even before a new CPR, all ties in with advancing this prospect, I believe, and that is where the real value lies, producing oil gas and helium from Eyasi.

Much news to come in the next few months, Eyasi, CPR for Itumbula, JV or farm out and then further raises at higher prices and an extensive drill campaign at Eyasi.

All IMHO, DYOR etc etc.

Suspect that there is a balancing buy to come in later...