Member Info for skittish

Funny how they'll likely be drilling Itumbula-2 at the date of the AGM.

Takes a bit of heat off the directors.

And if they can drill Itumbula-2 in December, which is one of the rainiest months, then they can certainly be drilling Tai-3A in January when the rains are easing off.

Provided they don't try that cake box or cash box chicanery nonsense again (severely damaging to company and management I think) then you can have a bang bang drilling scenario coming up to Christmas - 100M @ 3p, to get them through to May/June 2024.

So prior to then it's Itumbula-2, Tai-3A, CPR, rig overhaul, JV/farm out, and then on to Eyasi '24.

Eyasi '24 won't wait, hence drilling through the rains, which has always been a big no-no prior to now.

All IMHO, DYOR etc

PS The Ministry of Minerals has a high powered delegation in London at the moment, I wonder if they're making house calls?

Oh, sometimes I think that I should be taken out there, trussed up, tied to the rig, and banned from posting on this board or flikr ever again.

It is a great hobby, but financially expensive and mostly painful.

I should take up roulette.

Just trying to gauge timelines here - all a bit academic really, as it is only the traders who are making any money, and even then it must be hard at the moment (2.9p - who would have thought it.)

Misery.

Anyway -

14-10-23 - RNS -drilling recommenced on Tai-3 from 100M

16-10-23 - RNS - last mention of Itumbula in an RNS

20-10-23 - Tweets - last mention of Itumbula-1 in a tweet.

30-10-23 - RNS - Tai-3 @ 1445M, close to basement

12-11-23 - Itumbula-1 pad completed between 2-11-2023 and 12-11-2023 (Sentinel didn't download on 7-11-23)

12-11-23 - Work commences on Itumbula-2 between 2-11-23 and 12-11-23, complete by 20-11-23.

So I'd say from this that doubts were creeping in over the wisdom of going for Itumbula-1 after 20-10-23, tweets up to then had been regular 10-10-23, 16-10-23, 20-10-23, the next tweet was due around 25-10-23 and never happened. Certainly appears to be influenced by what they found close to basement. Then a very rapid move to Itumbula-2, as soon as the Itumbula-1 pad completed.

Maybe they knew around 25-10-23 that they were not encountering free helium, and by around 2-11-23 knew that they had to go somewhere where they were certain that lots of it exists.

Nothing else would cut the mustard, as failure on the next well really isn't an option.

(It is of course, but not for long term shareholders, or management credibility.)

Unfortunately you can only view (unless you are prepared to pay big $$) the Tai site at 5 day intervals using Sentinel.

It is good enough to see large objects moving around the pad, construction etc, but you can't tell what those objects are, just that there is movement.

Just occasionally you get a very clear view from Google Earth Maxar but as that updated at Tai (and over the whole Rukwa region) around the beginning of September it is unlikely to update again any time soon.

So unfortunately using Sentinel you can perhaps tell that something is going on but not exactly what it is, unless it is major earthworks.

In any event it is likely to be cloudy shortly, and then Sentinel will be of no use probably until end April. Should be clear skies however for tomorrow's Sentinel pass - hopefully.

Missed out a map showing seismic lines and Kidunda licence areas, Itumbula-2 is nearly on top of them!!

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53346584434/in/dateposted-public/

Good on you No1!

Just to update on my last post re the possible new well location.

Lorna says in the last interview (20-11-2023) that the civils are all completed. she has never actually pulled punches, during the rig fiasco weekend she said He1 would still drill in Q3 and 99% of the people on here (including me) said she wouldn't. She did. So when she says the civils are ready then they most definitely are.

This is the only location which fits, as no where else seems to have had a significant alteration in recent weeks.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53345370962/in/dateposted-public/

Lorna says they'll be rigged up in a week - so they will be. Parts 2-3 weeks so spud, possibly around 4-12-23 to 11-12-23.

But this location is quite interesting.

Factors in favour of it being correct

- obvious and significant changes on the ground

- fits with LB's description

- on top of a 10.4% helium source

- no other obvious changes close to Itumbula that I can see

- 3km from Camp Rukwa

Factors against

- there is no recent seismic at this location

- it is on top of the existing salt evaporation ponds

- likely to upset Kidunda (maybe a positive)

- Tai-3 and Itumbula-1 are on seismic and ERT lines, this location is not

- no roadway leading to the pad, but area is subject to heavy traffic in any event

It could be a shallow drill. Itumbula-1 was around 850M, basement here could be as shallow as 500M-600M (not absolutely clear from the information supplied). TD before Christmas.

If they are successful in drilling in the wet here (it needs to be done in the wet so as not to interfere with salt production) then they may go straight back to Tai-3.

It is also clear the new pad was commenced sometime between 28-11-23 and 12-11-23, so around the beginning of this month. Doubts over the results from Tai-3 at that stage? Also work at Itumbula-1 appeared to stop between 25-10-23 and 15-11-23, before commencing again, so maybe doubts as to that well location at that time? We'll probably never find out. There is also a new roadway running a few hundred metres NW of Itumbula-1, so maybe a possible pad to be built somewhere there - they wouldn't waste money doing it if it wasn't for a reason.

If this is indeed the new location I see it as a bit of curveball, perhaps there is outside influence here, doesn't seem to fit with a steady measured LB approach, more like a high stakes game of poker.

The stakes are indeed high, they are planning and acting for the future, needs funds, fall overdone, but it will always fall to the price at which the big hitters are prepared to put money in.

The roller coaster continues...

PS Itumbula-1 was described originally as Itumbula-C SE. Have we now found out where Itumbula A and B are located? Or is drilling in the helium springs themselves a complete off the wall curveball?

Dai, I guess the calculation is that if they hit helium then the subsistence salt extraction trade will be history.

Dallas vs The Beverly Hillbillies.

GG, good question.

I always thought Tai-3 was presented as a lower risk, more certain option which would produce decent but not spectacular results.

Obviously for the moment it has failed to do that.

Itumbula-1 I believed (possibly erroneously) was a higher risk option but designed to hit a big target with high levels of He1.

Tai-3 having effectively failed in its purpose for now I think that they just want to hit something which has free helium gas in it. Clearly if they are indeed drilling at the springs then the helium is escaping there. Hopefully it hasn't all escaped, but at least some is trapped.

The gas obviously is liberated at some point passing from fizz gas in solution to free gas.

I think they think this is their best bet of free gas, but they realise they are approaching the last chance saloon, so are prepared to place a bet that they may otherwise have postponed.

Maybe.

And another thing - if they are drilling directly into the Itumbula Helium springs it can only really be done in the wet season, I would think.

In the dry season they are harvesting the salt upon which the local economy depends.

Drilling would be impossible then without dislocating the local economy.

So wet season drilling it is.

What a terrible day!

But maybe we are about to witness Lorna's most audacious move yet?

Or most desperate move?

Backs against the wall etc?

In the interview LB says "The helium is in the fault and the fractured basin, where the helium is liberated"

"We have moved the well location slightly"

"We will drill into the main boundary fault of the Itumbula prospect. One of the major faults in the basin connected to the most prolific helium seep"

Apart from the roadway I pointed out this morning, which leads nowhere, I can't find any new activity close to the new Itumbula-1 pad. There is nothing there which looks to me like a new pad, apart from Itumbula-1

But LB says in the interview Itumbula-2 has already been built.

This is a general overview of the Itumbula Spring area, showing Itumbula-1 and Camp Rukwa.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53311040934/in/dateposted-public/

This is a view of the Springs themselves L-R 30-7-2023, 4-9-2023, 12-11-2023.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53345270331/in/dateposted-public/

By 12-11-2023 a squarish grey area about the size of a drill pad has appeared where the lake side brine evaporation ponds were located only a couple of months ago. It seems to have appeared in the last couple of weeks.

This is the Itumbula Helium Springs in relation to the main fault system, the main fault passing directly under the small lake, and then curving down towards the SW.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53345596374/in/dateposted-public/

If this is the location of Itumbula-2 then LB intends drilling directly into the source of the 10.4% He springs at Itumbula.

Audacious or what?!?

CP, yes it looks like they will drill 2.

But time is money, and they've spent two months on Tai-3.

And they already appear (possibly) to have started on I2 civils.

But these companies always seem to eat up money, it is in their nature, especially if things don't go to plan.

But they don't appear to be missing a beat and are getting on with things. If they are building I2 raises the prospect that they may drill sooner than the next dry season, I would have thought.

For the doubters this is Itumbula-1 28-10-2023, 12-11-2023, 17-11-2023.

It does exist, but appears largely empty of equipment.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53337952113/in/dateposted-public/

They may already be on their way to building Itumbula-2.

This is from Sentinel 17-11-2023. At first I thought that they were probably just using leftover materials to surface an existing track, however between 7-11-2023 and 17-11-2023 they appear to have started on a new roadway to the west of the existing Itumbula-1 pad, which was completed a number of weeks ago.

It is tentative at the moment, and appears to lead nowhere other than a few hundred metres west of the existing pad, but worth keeping an eye on. Sentinel in 2 days, but will be increasingly cloudy.

Disappointed by today, but this is a volatile high risk share.

More of DM's "fizz gas".

If it were truly a duster I'd have expected a larger fall as the whole project would be in doubt, but I think this is more funding issues, they'd budgeted for 2 months drilling and 2 pads. They've built 2 pads and drilled for 2 months.

Now they want a third pad (apparently), and more drilling.

Do the maths.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53343880916/in/dateposted-public/

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53344351245/in/dateposted-public/

Sorry I think that should be 0.8%, still good

8%, that is the only bit of the rns you need to know.

And they will go for Itumbula-1 as soon as fixed.

Then cpr....etc...

You would think so - if I'm right - but I think I've backed it up by some fairly compelling evidence.

There maybe a good reason for not revealing, and the bad.

Good is not to distract shareholders/markets from Rukwa, as that is the big imminent news, and I think getting a good result at Rukwa is really important for getting Eyasi off the ground.

Bad would be to lead to the conclusion that Rukwa was no good and they were off chasing rainbows all around Tanzania, starting at Eyasi.

To counter that would be that the Ministry knows exactly what they have at Rukwa in real time, has its own geologists and experts assessing the situation, and wouldn't get into bed with a load of duffers.

The no publicity line could also be that these agreements are not fully concluded as yet - maybe the deal with TPDC/PURA/The Ministry is only outline, our 9 new licences are approved but not yet issued, they need to negotiate money, how many drills when and where, once the 2D is fully interpreted.

But yes, I do find it odd, the top civil servant at the Ministry of Mines takes ownership of this deal on his own Linkedin page and He1 say... nothing.

And that money thing, could explain why the shares are 6p? AGM brought forward, 315M shares potentially to be issued, Eyasi will cost etc etc. Some people here say it is 6p because there is uncertainty over the news to come (which inevitably there must be) but maybe part of the reason is some people know about Eyasi and know it won't be cheap, but will propel the company to the next level.

Over to you Saint Lorna...

Hi KeithOz,

TPDC/He1 - Yes if it were just the press release that existed - even though it refers to "jointly develop the overlapping area" (possibly just hyperbole) then I'd agree with what you were saying, maybe a simple pooling of data. And one of the licences at Eyasi held by Universal Metals is actually for Oil and Helium.

However there are several factors that indicate that it is far more important that just sharing a bit of geological data.

The first is that 2019 Presentation at the RGS by the Tanzanian government looking for investors - to me that sets out a roadmap of what needs to happen at Eyasi/Wembere and all the points in the roadmap have been dealt with and the agreement with He1 is the final one - the strategic partnership.

That presentation ends with this slide

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53340551497/in/dateposted-public/

They were seeking strategic partners, and He1 stepped forward.

Add to that the 13th October 2023 was put on LinkedIn by the Permanent Secretary to the Ministry of Mines (this guy is close to the top in the Tz government)

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kheri-mahimbali-b85b03265_madiniyetu-stable-predictable-activity-7119995888843784192-Z9In/

and it becomes a bit more than just an agreement to share a bit of geological data.

Add into that the events of 8th February 2023 when DM lost his job, the filing of the He1 Eyasi licence applications that day (he was obviously blocking, why when they already had licences at Eyasi, and why lose your job over it?). And then you have the extraordinary purchase of a rig, by a small explorer, prior to their even being able to declare a discovery (fits in with the "recognised capacity" bit of that last slide) and the 2D seismic being conducted following that, and that it encompasses the entirety of He1's new licences (around 2,000 sq km)

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53331794921/in/dateposted-public/

and I then think this all points to a bigger deal.

And then the silence from He1. Nothing. It is a big deal, as the Tz press and the Ministry tell us, but not a peep from He1. That in itself is telling. You've also got that some of the seismic covers parts of Nobles licences, and Rukwa Helium (T) Ltd, but no Tz govt deal with them?

Also the Tz govt website shows that most areas are covered by licences. I think it unusual that such a large area was unlicensed. I don't know whether it was licenced to others prior to He1, maybe it was just waiting for the right partner, maybe He1 was time limited in applying, maybe it was part of the licence swaps we see happening at Rukwa - I can't find that out.

As to NHE I'm not quite sure where they fit in. All the Rukwa companies are linked either directly, or indirectly. It could be that some sort of licence swap has taken place already, we don't know, or can only see one side of the swap.

cont/...

To KOz (Continued)

Kidunda also issued 3M new shares on 14-11-2023. We don't know where they are going. The last time they issued shares it was 4M which appeared to have gone to an Aussie company Archean Pty Ltd, who may have been the broker behind the deal between Kidunda and D3Energy, to get their licences onto the ASX. Time will tell where these shares go and possibly why.

So it is always wheels within wheels, shadows, and what we poor punters see is always a mere fraction of what is really going on.

We have to make the best we can of what we can find, but when the company is so silent, they can hardly complain. It is our money after all.

But the Eyasi/Wembere/TPDC/PURA deal I think is very significant and the Real McCoy.

Yes, and I think the Tz government believes that also, hence why they are willing to get into bed with He1 on a prestige project.

If they thought He1 were a load of duffers they wouldn't risk it.

I think that is also why He1 are bigging the rig up for future projects, that is after all the repairs it will be good as new.

They are messaging to their big backer.

Hopefully the results will do Tai justice.

Cyber, you seem to have missed the point completely.

The whole point of what is going on/has gone on is that they know/knew on 8-2-23 that Tai-3 would be a discovery, provided it was drilled right.

Otherwise, they would not be able to divest themselves of Rukwa (presumably with some cash) and then embark on a much more adventurous project.

No one would ever give them a load of cash going forwards if they've already failed at Rukwa, and failed with 3 wells.

Anyway I hear they are being circled, and others maybe ready to pounce depending on the results at Tai-3.

The licences are good, the only question is whether the drilling will do them justice.