The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Scirocco is a UK registered company and therefore may feel morally obliged to issue a TR1, but there is no requirement to do so.
Where is Mr Hale's TR1? He has(or maybe had) 7%, seemingly acquired in December 2022.
The big seller theory is really to answer the 30% fall in the share price without there being the need for anything wrong with the company, wrong with Tanzania, wrong with the rig, or a imminent placing.
Pays your money etc...
I should add also that Sentinel images show a dark line running W to E, North of the wellhead. It is unclear what this is, it has been there for quite a few weeks, one of the tweeted images seems to show some sort of trench being dug, but what its purpose is, is unclear.
Could be something to do with a camp, but I think unlikely.
No, I don't believe so.
The last image on my Flikr feed from 24-8, around 8 images down (can't post url atm) compares the pad on 19-8 with 24-8 and suggests that the camp isn't there yet.
Of course it may be Sentinel just hasn't got the resolution to show it.
Next image should be 29-8 so could be something shows up then.
Just a quick follow up on this image
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53145703095/in/dateposted-public/
I've overlain it on the original prospect/play image from the Admission Document, based on reanalysed 1980's seismic, which is what I suspect they used when locating Tai-1, in the wrong place.
It is clear that He1 have done much work as a result of the 2021/22 seismic, although with the exception of Tai, none of the results of this have ever been disclosed. It is clear that some new prospects have been found, some discounted and another confirmed all close to Tai.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53148584304/in/dateposted-public/
Commentary within the image.
As always IMHO, DYOR.
I too am awaiting several tweets etc., but until the seller is out I suspect the share is going no where, no matter what news. News/publicity only serves to get him out quicker. We know when he will be out as the share price will rise around 40% on no news, I suspect.
Armed guards, eh? That wasn't there last night. The ship was only in Hull for 9 hours, so I suspect only the rig was loaded there. Should be first off when it docks. Sentinel (27-8) suggests that the cellar is now being prepared at Mbelele-1.
Everything looks good for big news in around 4 weeks time.
Whilst we all get ourselves tied up in knots will she/won't she etc...
(Any bloke {and it is mainly blokes} who has tried to ever predict what a female will do is likely to come off worse than if he had simply gone with the flow!)
Anyway a look at the CPR gives us some tantalising clues that other plays aside from Tai have been clearly defined by Helium One, but almost no information has ever been released concerning them.
Whilst some were outlined in very general terms in the Admission Document, they have never been referred to since, but here they are with very clear and detailed outlines. CPR's also maybe done on them, following seismic, but never disclosed?
Their locations are here -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53145703095/in/dateposted-public/
And from the CPR
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53144676382/in/dateposted-public/
The blue hatched areas are helium seeps from the MSS survey, about which little has also been said.
And Mr Big (assuming it is just one, which I think is likely) has between 10-8-23 and 25-8-23 got rid of around 22M shares (taking account that there is a (possibly large) element of guesstimate here), his best days being the day of the presentation and tweet days, when there is real demand for the shares. I think that demand has held up pretty well, but of course there is a cost to shareholders, and that is an ever declining share price.
I haven't had a chance to go back further, but I think there is a pattern, big 500K's often at the end of the day and a series of 100K's during trading hours.
By Tuesday it will have been a week since a tweet, so I'm expecting at least two next week, so he should be able to shift quite a few more.
Of course (IMHO,DYOR) I think that all works revolving around rig set up at the pad were completed last week, as there was no change at Camp Rukwa between 19-8- and 24-8, here -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53138258862/in/dateposted-public/
and almost no change at the pad, here -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53138276267/in/dateposted-public/
Clearer atmospheric conditions may have resulted in better definition on 24-8-23.
And the Bohwa Tsingtao will exit the Red Sea and enter the India Ocean this evening.
But if Pete is correct, and I have no reason to doubt that he is (bearing in mind I have a maths 'O' level) then the calculation is 1- (0.86x0.86x0.86x0.86x0.86x0.9) = 57% chance of success of a discovery, at one of the six target levels, whether it be commercial or not.
I think that is okay, bearing in mind that some of the assumptions underlying the CPR could be considered to be fairly conservative.
HNW = High Net Worth = rich people, to you and me.
Very difficult to know because we don't know for sure who it is (although there are very few people with many millions of shares), and we don't know what the ultimate objective is, completely or partly out.
If He1 is being marketed to HNW's it depends on them being willing to buy.
Since IS left we've had 3 15M+ volume days, with a few more of those then you could go through the 56M quite quickly. There may be quite a bit of a dent in that number already after a few crazy days last week. It would also depend upon a steady stream of publicity from here and elsewhere to build up a compelling and exciting narrative over the next month or so.
So we shall see, but it doesn't appear to me (IMHO,DYOR) that the price will rise until the selling stops, but no one knows when that will be.
But possibly a very compelling investment at this price, as if all goes well, during October there could be quite a feverish atmosphere surrounding this share and the prospects at Tai.
I don't see him as a trader though.
There is so little information on him (and around this general situation) that you have to make some semi educated guesses, so you sort of ascribe a trading technique to him which may or may not be correct.
So from what little I can glean he appears and "all or nothing man", taking largish stakes in early stage investments, and then selling out (probably entirely) on a decent 50% ish rise after a number of months.
The difference her is that an associate of his from days past (IS) left the company at the beginning of this month, so that is his reason to sell now, and he could have been introduced to another investment where he can repeat the same again. He isn't (IMHO) interested in big risk, or very long term, or multi bag possibilities.
But, if this is indeed all correct, and I caution that it may not be, then it should be a comfort to He1 investors, as it means that there is nothing wrong with the company, or Tanzania, or Tai, or anything else for that matter, but the share price may be somewhat erratic (that is putting it politely) for the next month or so.
We are simply subject to and being buffeted by his investing style, for the four weeks.
Great opportunity if you time horizon exceeds 30 days.
The MM will have made around £2K on the 1.9M transaction, and if I'm right we should get a 1M balancing sell at 7.8p in the next day or so. The problem is that the broker has to do this every working day for the next month . So maybe He1 is now being actively marketed to HNW's to get rid of these shares?
Time will tell whether this is all correct or a complete load of old codswallop, of course.
Yes, we don't know for sure who it is, but I did make something of a guess a few days ago, (see my posts 19-8-23 13.07), and we don't know whether he will go to zero, although I suspect he might.
We'll only get confirmation, one way or the other, in several months time, when it will all be history, and events will have moved on in a major way, and after that no one will care.
So it is all a bit academic.
If the price starts moving a major way within the next few weeks then we'll know that he has either stopped selling, or that I am wrong in my surmising.
But we shall see.
PS. The seller likely got them (possibly all) @5p, so by selling at around 8p, he is making around 50% to 60% on his investment.
The hardest part is getting rid of them all in an orderly manner without collapsing the price, hence a nicely managed and massaged (I would not say invented, because it is all actually true, but events are not taking place at the times described, but a number of weeks previously) news flow over the next 5 weeks or so.
All IMHO etc, etc, as usual
The 632,835's I would say are buys.
632,835 x £.079 = £49,993.965, so £50K less £6.03 commission.
I see only 3 at the moment.
The 600K is a sell.
The 2 250K's a roll over.
Possibly the price rose initially this morning because MM's knew that the £50K orders were incoming. I anticipate however (IMHO) that there will be further balancing sells to be posted later today, or first thing tomorrow.
If I'm right the seller has many more to get rid of. Difficult to know exactly what is going on, but if I'm right the selling will continue for probably the next month or so, right up to and including spud (25-9-2023), which may be enough to finally get rid of him (or maybe not).
There may well be a number of stars to be aligned, for the end of September, not just two.
Nothing is certain of course, but just a feeling I have.
Could be wrong, of course.
IMHO,DYOR, etc, etc...
Yes, I'm hoping for a mega bagger!
But it is painful at the moment.
The slightest rally is sold into, and there is so much talk on here (and elsewhere) concerning de risking (not that there is anything wrong with that) that I sometimes wonder if the share price will ever gain any traction.
I've speculated in previous posts as to why the share price does not appear to ever, these days, get above 10p, hopefully it will, but at the present time it seems that someone is always willing to sell around the 8p-9p level.
Hopefully that will end in the next month or so.
If we spud and we're still below 10p, it is going to be one wild ride.
Well, I'm not really into share price predictions, except for saying it should be higher than now.
He1 and the markets generally could be so volatile, so it is really difficult to predict.
And after all who would have thought that with only a month or so to go til spud we would be struggling with 8p?
18 month ago, after with the Tai-1 disappointment we were higher than this.
So I will give share price predictions a miss, if you don't mind, as I whilst being great fun, they aren't too helpful in reality.
I too believe that Tai was a "discovery".
Indeed DM tweeted as such "#discovery" and the tweet remained up for all of 30 minutes before being taken down, no doubt as the Nomad and He1's lawyers were having a seizure and foaming at the mouth
But they can't prove it, and that is why the share price is struggling to get to 9p, the company is worth circa £60M, whilst sitting on many $billions of Helium.
So people can think that Tai-1 was a discovery, and if they are right, then if they buy these shares could become very rich.
My holding is many times greater now than it was at the time of Tai-1, so I have positioned myself accordingly.
So Tai-3 remains for me officially an exploration well.
I haven't actually said Camp Rukwa is empty, I said it "empties".
The latest Sentinel image here, 19-8-2023 on the right, still shows equipment to be there-
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53129396158/in/datetaken/
In particular there is a dark blob at the bottom end of the compound, some form of equipment and a dark "L" shape at the top of the compound. This we know is a piping storage area. How? Well because He1 inadvertently told us. And that picture is here -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52896943825/in/datetaken/
Now have He1 ever told us where Camp Rukwa was located? No never! They have barely even admitted that such a place exists, just referring to it as a "Forward Base" although once, just once, in an early morning tweet at 5.41am (obviously still half asleep) DM referred to it as "Camp Rukwa". I actually managed to work out the location Camp Rukwa from the above photo, although it wasn't easy, and involved searching many hundreds of km of roadway around the Rukwa area, and took quite a while.
I am sure that they never intended the location of Camp Rukwa to be discerned from that photograph, or any photograph.
But in the same presentation dated 9-5-23, it is still on the He1 website, was this, in the same location
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53133246877/in/dateposted-public/
It shows a well head. I don't know much about wellheads but I counted three in that picture. A correspondent of mine said that there were actually 6 in the photograph. And that these are all production wellheads.
So He1 only tells us a bit of what is going on, and then 3 weeks late, and crops their photographs very carefully (still to this day) to reveal as little information as possible.
But don't for a moment think that there isn't quite a bit more equipment at Camp Rukwa than they really want us to know about.
Six production wellheads for one exploration well?
Seems like overkill to me.
Good reason??
Good question!
I really am not sure, I just try to report what I see (IMHO, DYOR etc, as always) but yes, it is a little extraordinary.
I can understand them trying to manage expectations, especially after what happened with Tai-1, and related to that is taking their time, as the rush job last time was not much short of a disaster, certainly for shareholders who held on (me), so they'll want everything to be absolutely ready this time. Same goes for the workforce.
But who would have guessed in mid July that Nobles Drillmec rig, which was then around 5000 miles from Rukwa, and at that time still in Chesterfield could spud at the same time as our Predator which was then 16km away from the wellhead?
Of course those spuds have yet to come to pass, but it looks increasingly likely that that could be the case, nothing guaranteed of course.
I can only think that possibilities are that a "joint" spud would be a form of "insurance" for both companies, doubles your chances of a find.
Also if one hits and the other doesn't all is not lost for the "loser", Nobles is a Basin Margin play, ours an Intra Basin play, but both have the two different types of play in their licence areas, so the "loser" can say, "we'll just drill the type of play we "know" will be successful".
We know Noble will drill two wells Mbelele-1 and 2, and are funded for that, we obviously are funded for Tai-3, and they say "possibly" another well. He1 have spent at least $10M on all this at Tai-3 so what would be another 4 weeks wages to get a 2nd drill in - a paltry amount - they may not just be fully committed as yet. I suspect is almost nailed on but if they hit big at Tai-3 may not be necessary, but would be useful for a CPR.
So I'm expecting a 4 well programme between the two, both drilling and spudding at the same time.
That I think gives both a much better chance of success, and of course they've both got their eyes on funding a 2024 campaign.
But if none of those 4 wells were to find helium, commercial or not, then both companies have got a really serious problem on their hands, and I suspect it will be back to the drawing board, and not just until 2024.
But as always as pi's we only see a fraction of what is going on, and co operation between Noble and He1, for the benefit of both sets of shareholder could be closer than we think.
And as an aside, if you have say £500K+ committed to this company, it would pay you to buy some high resolution Maxar images for a few $100 a piece, which would tell you exactly what was going on down at Rukwa, with only 24/48 hours delay. Maybe the "big money" worked out what is going on some time ago and is yet to commit fully.
We rely on fuzzy Sentinel images.
Doing better today, but still below a month ago. Extraordinary. But so is this share!
Yes, fantastic to get that rig pic, today.
But Sentinel tells us, again, that all is not what it seems. This is a bit of a rehash of my post from a few days ago, with a bit more narrative detail, and linking with today's pic.
That picture was almost certainly taken between 30-7-23 and 4-8-23.
This is the pad on 30-7-23, a diffuse darker area around the site of the well head -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53082115558/in/datetaken/
which had developed into a denser, less diffuse black splodge over the wellhead by 4-8-2023 -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53095653270/in/dateposted-public/
That (IMHO, DYOR) is what we now see in this mornings picture -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53134077305/in/datetaken/
In fact Sentinel shows that equipment had already been moved to the pad well head area by 25-7-2023, although that could have been the trucks an cranes pictures of which were tweeted by He1 last week.
This image I've posted recently, showing Camp Rukwa, 26 June, 25 July, 19 August, filling up and then emptying
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53128339617/in/datetaken/
That dark blob in the centre of 25-7-23 is almost certainly the rig convoy. It is approx 50M x 25M or 1,250 sq metres. Trucks are usually around 15M x 3M = 45 sq metres (although some for transporting this sort of stuff may be a little oversized. So allowing say 18M x 4M for each truck, and a parking area, the "blob" at Camp Rukwa on 25-7-2023 would represent around 17 - 18 trucks, which would be the whole of the rig convoy.
By 4-8-2023 that large black blob had started to break up and become diffuse, showing that quite a bit of the equipment and trucks had already moved to the pad at that time -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53094691087/in/datetaken/
There are a couple of other blobs on 25-7-23, one black two white which have since disappeared. The white ones are likely van/pickup trucks, a white blob appeared at the pad on 19-8-2023, and a white van was in one of the tweets from last week.
So what does this tell us?
1. Well, they've confirmed (of course) that the rig was one of the first pieces of equipment to reach the pad, and be set up and Sentinel shows us that this probably happened around 3 weeks ago.
2. That they are confident enough to tweet it and therefore the pad set up by now is actually complete.
3. That they are maintaining a 3 week "delay" in news reporting, so we'll probably get the pad all rigged up and complete tweet around 9-9-2023, say 10 days for testing etc, big drum roll, and spud week commencing 19-9-2023.
4. Which will be just around the time Noble operating at Warp speed will be about to spud also. Their ship should be at Port Said tonight.
Still quite a bit of selling into that little rise, Ho hum....
All IMHO, DYOR etc etc