Member Info for skittish

After a number of requests to those who run Google Earth, my requests (and prayers) have now been answered this afternoon. So thanks to google Earth (and to the CIA who gave them some initial funding).

We now have Maxar views of the Tai-3 pad as at 22-8-2023!

I haven't much time to post or interpret the images, so just a brief overview for now -

This is a close up view of the Tai-3 area, the DNR Base Camp appears to have been cleared entirely -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53152882169/in/dateposted-public/

This is the Tai-3 pad

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53152099367/in/dateposted-public/

I was right yesterday in thinking that pipes have been moved from Camp Rukwa, but wrong in thinking that some were not at Tai-3, they can be seen here in top left corner, and just north of the well head. Quite a bit of other equipment is there also. Others more knowledgeable than me can say what is there and what is yet to arrive, bearing in mind the image is at 22-8-2023. This was the same date as the rig tweet with this picture here -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53152722606/in/dateposted-public/

This is Sentinel from 24-8-2023 for comparison -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53138839446/in/dateposted-public/

And Sentinel from last night showing some changes

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53151456093/in/dateposted-public/

Real close up of Tai-3 pad

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53152676896/in/dateposted-public/

Roadway access to Tai-3, it looks like the huts/accommodation from the DNR Base Camp may have been moved to here -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53152882634/in/dateposted-public/

The cleared area 2km north of Tai-3 -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53153172933/in/dateposted-public/

Maybe at best jury still out on this one, there is an improved road to the NE, with what looks like a tree across the roadway blocking access, and the area has been cleared, but difficult to say that it has been by heavy machinery. Interesting nonetheless and now we have good imagery it would be easier to interpret the Sentinel imagery for updates.

Will have a better look round when I have time. Camp Rukwa is not covered by the more recent imagery.

Whilst Saint Lorna gave us a full update only a fortnight ago, I can understand why some are a bit bleak given the 40% fall in the share price over the last few weeks.

But hope springs eternal.

Sentinel from earlier today -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53151456093/in/dateposted-public/

Tai-3 pad, not much change that I can see, main addition appear to be several white dots (5 or 6), possibly pickup trucks or support equipment, possibly Geo Truck etc. in the lower half of the pad.

There may also be a couple of white dots in the upper half, where presumably the accommodation is to be located.

Not much change at the well head, although it now appears smaller. If they had completed here a week or two ago then this area would not change much until they were ready to drill.

No sign of accommodation but they may use the same accommodation as at the DNR Camp, which was tan/grey coloured and may be very difficult to see on Sentinel images.

See DNR Camp here -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53038822556/in/dateposted-public/

Camp Rukwa, no changes over the last couple of weeks but hint of a change today in the pipe area, at the north of the compound, next to the roadway.

Previously it has been an inverted "L" shape, now more of an "I" shaped block, suggesting that some of the pipes may have been moved within the camp if not outside it - no evidence yet that they have arrived at the pad.

Also hint of a green area to the left of the camp, possibly a tent?

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53150957111/in/dateposted-public/

Compare with images from 5 and 10 days ago, the pipes certainly look to have been moved slightly -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53138258862/in/dateposted-public/

Interesting idea that Nobles ship may carry equipment for us also - because a little bird had told me, prior to Noble taking the Marriot rig and us the Predator, that the Marriot rig was being prepped for us and would be contracted by He1, who were about to ditch Sofori, and even provided me with the coordinates for the Marriott yard in Chesterfield, a week prior to Noble contracting that rig. That would explain some of the goings on here, but as ever nothing is certain.

But we do seem to be moving towards the end game, if at something of a glacial pace.

Scirocco is a UK registered company and therefore may feel morally obliged to issue a TR1, but there is no requirement to do so.

Where is Mr Hale's TR1? He has(or maybe had) 7%, seemingly acquired in December 2022.

The big seller theory is really to answer the 30% fall in the share price without there being the need for anything wrong with the company, wrong with Tanzania, wrong with the rig, or a imminent placing.

Pays your money etc...

There has never been and will never be a TR1.

BVI registered.

Normal rules don't apply.

I should add also that Sentinel images show a dark line running W to E, North of the wellhead. It is unclear what this is, it has been there for quite a few weeks, one of the tweeted images seems to show some sort of trench being dug, but what its purpose is, is unclear.

Could be something to do with a camp, but I think unlikely.

No, I don't believe so.

The last image on my Flikr feed from 24-8, around 8 images down (can't post url atm) compares the pad on 19-8 with 24-8 and suggests that the camp isn't there yet.

Of course it may be Sentinel just hasn't got the resolution to show it.

Next image should be 29-8 so could be something shows up then.

Just a quick follow up on this image

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53145703095/in/dateposted-public/

I've overlain it on the original prospect/play image from the Admission Document, based on reanalysed 1980's seismic, which is what I suspect they used when locating Tai-1, in the wrong place.

It is clear that He1 have done much work as a result of the 2021/22 seismic, although with the exception of Tai, none of the results of this have ever been disclosed. It is clear that some new prospects have been found, some discounted and another confirmed all close to Tai.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53148584304/in/dateposted-public/

Commentary within the image.

As always IMHO, DYOR.

I too am awaiting several tweets etc., but until the seller is out I suspect the share is going no where, no matter what news. News/publicity only serves to get him out quicker. We know when he will be out as the share price will rise around 40% on no news, I suspect.

Armed guards, eh? That wasn't there last night. The ship was only in Hull for 9 hours, so I suspect only the rig was loaded there. Should be first off when it docks. Sentinel (27-8) suggests that the cellar is now being prepared at Mbelele-1.

Everything looks good for big news in around 4 weeks time.

Whilst we all get ourselves tied up in knots will she/won't she etc...

(Any bloke {and it is mainly blokes} who has tried to ever predict what a female will do is likely to come off worse than if he had simply gone with the flow!)

Anyway a look at the CPR gives us some tantalising clues that other plays aside from Tai have been clearly defined by Helium One, but almost no information has ever been released concerning them.

Whilst some were outlined in very general terms in the Admission Document, they have never been referred to since, but here they are with very clear and detailed outlines. CPR's also maybe done on them, following seismic, but never disclosed?

Their locations are here -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53145703095/in/dateposted-public/

And from the CPR

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53144676382/in/dateposted-public/

The blue hatched areas are helium seeps from the MSS survey, about which little has also been said.

And Mr Big (assuming it is just one, which I think is likely) has between 10-8-23 and 25-8-23 got rid of around 22M shares (taking account that there is a (possibly large) element of guesstimate here), his best days being the day of the presentation and tweet days, when there is real demand for the shares. I think that demand has held up pretty well, but of course there is a cost to shareholders, and that is an ever declining share price.

I haven't had a chance to go back further, but I think there is a pattern, big 500K's often at the end of the day and a series of 100K's during trading hours.

By Tuesday it will have been a week since a tweet, so I'm expecting at least two next week, so he should be able to shift quite a few more.

Of course (IMHO,DYOR) I think that all works revolving around rig set up at the pad were completed last week, as there was no change at Camp Rukwa between 19-8- and 24-8, here -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53138258862/in/dateposted-public/

and almost no change at the pad, here -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53138276267/in/dateposted-public/

Clearer atmospheric conditions may have resulted in better definition on 24-8-23.

And the Bohwa Tsingtao will exit the Red Sea and enter the India Ocean this evening.

But if Pete is correct, and I have no reason to doubt that he is (bearing in mind I have a maths 'O' level) then the calculation is 1- (0.86x0.86x0.86x0.86x0.86x0.9) = 57% chance of success of a discovery, at one of the six target levels, whether it be commercial or not.

I think that is okay, bearing in mind that some of the assumptions underlying the CPR could be considered to be fairly conservative.

HNW = High Net Worth = rich people, to you and me.

Very difficult to know because we don't know for sure who it is (although there are very few people with many millions of shares), and we don't know what the ultimate objective is, completely or partly out.

If He1 is being marketed to HNW's it depends on them being willing to buy.

Since IS left we've had 3 15M+ volume days, with a few more of those then you could go through the 56M quite quickly. There may be quite a bit of a dent in that number already after a few crazy days last week. It would also depend upon a steady stream of publicity from here and elsewhere to build up a compelling and exciting narrative over the next month or so.

So we shall see, but it doesn't appear to me (IMHO,DYOR) that the price will rise until the selling stops, but no one knows when that will be.

But possibly a very compelling investment at this price, as if all goes well, during October there could be quite a feverish atmosphere surrounding this share and the prospects at Tai.

It was at 7.7p, but yes it balances the book for today.

I don't see him as a trader though.

There is so little information on him (and around this general situation) that you have to make some semi educated guesses, so you sort of ascribe a trading technique to him which may or may not be correct.

So from what little I can glean he appears and "all or nothing man", taking largish stakes in early stage investments, and then selling out (probably entirely) on a decent 50% ish rise after a number of months.

The difference her is that an associate of his from days past (IS) left the company at the beginning of this month, so that is his reason to sell now, and he could have been introduced to another investment where he can repeat the same again. He isn't (IMHO) interested in big risk, or very long term, or multi bag possibilities.

But, if this is indeed all correct, and I caution that it may not be, then it should be a comfort to He1 investors, as it means that there is nothing wrong with the company, or Tanzania, or Tai, or anything else for that matter, but the share price may be somewhat erratic (that is putting it politely) for the next month or so.

We are simply subject to and being buffeted by his investing style, for the four weeks.

Great opportunity if you time horizon exceeds 30 days.

The MM will have made around £2K on the 1.9M transaction, and if I'm right we should get a 1M balancing sell at 7.8p in the next day or so. The problem is that the broker has to do this every working day for the next month . So maybe He1 is now being actively marketed to HNW's to get rid of these shares?

Time will tell whether this is all correct or a complete load of old codswallop, of course.

Yes, we don't know for sure who it is, but I did make something of a guess a few days ago, (see my posts 19-8-23 13.07), and we don't know whether he will go to zero, although I suspect he might.

We'll only get confirmation, one way or the other, in several months time, when it will all be history, and events will have moved on in a major way, and after that no one will care.

So it is all a bit academic.

If the price starts moving a major way within the next few weeks then we'll know that he has either stopped selling, or that I am wrong in my surmising.

But we shall see.

PS. The seller likely got them (possibly all) @5p, so by selling at around 8p, he is making around 50% to 60% on his investment.

The hardest part is getting rid of them all in an orderly manner without collapsing the price, hence a nicely managed and massaged (I would not say invented, because it is all actually true, but events are not taking place at the times described, but a number of weeks previously) news flow over the next 5 weeks or so.

All IMHO etc, etc, as usual

The 632,835's I would say are buys.

632,835 x £.079 = £49,993.965, so £50K less £6.03 commission.

I see only 3 at the moment.

The 600K is a sell.

The 2 250K's a roll over.

Possibly the price rose initially this morning because MM's knew that the £50K orders were incoming. I anticipate however (IMHO) that there will be further balancing sells to be posted later today, or first thing tomorrow.

If I'm right the seller has many more to get rid of. Difficult to know exactly what is going on, but if I'm right the selling will continue for probably the next month or so, right up to and including spud (25-9-2023), which may be enough to finally get rid of him (or maybe not).

There may well be a number of stars to be aligned, for the end of September, not just two.

Nothing is certain of course, but just a feeling I have.

Could be wrong, of course.

IMHO,DYOR, etc, etc...

25th September.

Because the stars will align on that date.

Yes, I'm hoping for a mega bagger!

But it is painful at the moment.

The slightest rally is sold into, and there is so much talk on here (and elsewhere) concerning de risking (not that there is anything wrong with that) that I sometimes wonder if the share price will ever gain any traction.

I've speculated in previous posts as to why the share price does not appear to ever, these days, get above 10p, hopefully it will, but at the present time it seems that someone is always willing to sell around the 8p-9p level.

Hopefully that will end in the next month or so.

If we spud and we're still below 10p, it is going to be one wild ride.

Well, I'm not really into share price predictions, except for saying it should be higher than now.

He1 and the markets generally could be so volatile, so it is really difficult to predict.

And after all who would have thought that with only a month or so to go til spud we would be struggling with 8p?

18 month ago, after with the Tai-1 disappointment we were higher than this.

So I will give share price predictions a miss, if you don't mind, as I whilst being great fun, they aren't too helpful in reality.

I too believe that Tai was a "discovery".

Indeed DM tweeted as such "#discovery" and the tweet remained up for all of 30 minutes before being taken down, no doubt as the Nomad and He1's lawyers were having a seizure and foaming at the mouth

But they can't prove it, and that is why the share price is struggling to get to 9p, the company is worth circa £60M, whilst sitting on many $billions of Helium.

So people can think that Tai-1 was a discovery, and if they are right, then if they buy these shares could become very rich.

My holding is many times greater now than it was at the time of Tai-1, so I have positioned myself accordingly.

So Tai-3 remains for me officially an exploration well.

I haven't actually said Camp Rukwa is empty, I said it "empties".

The latest Sentinel image here, 19-8-2023 on the right, still shows equipment to be there-

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53129396158/in/datetaken/

In particular there is a dark blob at the bottom end of the compound, some form of equipment and a dark "L" shape at the top of the compound. This we know is a piping storage area. How? Well because He1 inadvertently told us. And that picture is here -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52896943825/in/datetaken/

Now have He1 ever told us where Camp Rukwa was located? No never! They have barely even admitted that such a place exists, just referring to it as a "Forward Base" although once, just once, in an early morning tweet at 5.41am (obviously still half asleep) DM referred to it as "Camp Rukwa". I actually managed to work out the location Camp Rukwa from the above photo, although it wasn't easy, and involved searching many hundreds of km of roadway around the Rukwa area, and took quite a while.

I am sure that they never intended the location of Camp Rukwa to be discerned from that photograph, or any photograph.

But in the same presentation dated 9-5-23, it is still on the He1 website, was this, in the same location

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53133246877/in/dateposted-public/

It shows a well head. I don't know much about wellheads but I counted three in that picture. A correspondent of mine said that there were actually 6 in the photograph. And that these are all production wellheads.

So He1 only tells us a bit of what is going on, and then 3 weeks late, and crops their photographs very carefully (still to this day) to reveal as little information as possible.

But don't for a moment think that there isn't quite a bit more equipment at Camp Rukwa than they really want us to know about.

Six production wellheads for one exploration well?

Seems like overkill to me.