Member Info for skittish

Bladderman, it's been there for a week now, at Camp Rukwa.

Lots going on here, we only see mere shadows, in comparison to the reality.

Highly possible, just trying to square Nobles Q3 spud with the facts, and the reality that their 'chosen' rig is still in the UK.

We've been thrown a few curve balls recently, re going from no rig on a Friday, to owning one on the following Monday.

Always expect the unexpected.

From Saint Lorna, anyway.

There is no road to Tai 1 anymore

Indeed, and while the Sofori deal was jacked, no mention of jacking the collaboration.

Also may fit in with rumours of a shallow early first drill, but would be Noble going to 500M.

All the equipment and materials to complete Nobles pad could already be at Tai, just awaiting the completion of Nobles fundraising, tomorrow, I think.

Quick pad completion, they could be drilling by mid/end August, and get the rig back to us by end September for spud.

Speculation, but interesting...

The problem at Tai-1 is that it was on the wrong side of the fault, and the drill didn't get to the right side until 500 metres. So the Lake Beds were intercepted out of closure, although there was a find at 70 metres.

There presently doesn't appear to be a roadway to Tai-1, as it was all ripped up after the 2021 drill.

Maybe Lorna will surprise, or at least allow the drill bit to surprise, prior to 8 weeks...

Aimster,

Of course, it is less than 1km from Tai-3, something a little odd there, but not possible to say what it is from Sentinel.

But totally off beam, Noble say they will drill in Q3, even now, down to 500 metres. How long would that drill take, 7 to 14 days? And their Drillmec is still in Chesterfield undergoing maintenance/inspection.

We are to spud mid September, still almost 8 weeks away.

I know of a rig around 80km from Mbelele-1, sitting on a low loader, all ready to rock and roll.

I wonder...?

No, that's impossible....

Totally forgot, today is Sentinel day at Tai and Camp Rukwa, will have to wait until tomorrow now, but I'll see what I can see then.

I expect Saint Lorna to stick to the published timetable though, she'll let the drill bit produce all the surprises.

Noble have now released more information on their intended locations for drilling.

I don't know which drill plan they are now using, but they must be up to plan "F" or thereabouts. so now it is two shallow wells, targeting the Lake Beds, Mbelele-1 and 2.

During the time Noble have been giving out fairly vague information on their likely drilling locations, I have tried to pin point their intended well sites.

My map now looks like this -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53070990149/in/dateposted-public/

Dartboard drilling.

Contrast that with He1, who have given unwavering attention to Tai-3, whose location I have been able to determine within around 100 metres for the last 9 months or so.

So using this map

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53070760686/in/dateposted-public/

I've been able to ascertain the likely locations of their wells by lining up that map with the GE coastline images, and we get this -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53070878146/in/dateposted-public/

which gives us locations on the ground.

So what is on the ground, the ground truth, as it were?

Some may recall I posted some images at the beginning of this month, showing Nobles area of interest and some disturbed ground. The area was around 1km north of the northernmost location I had for Mbelele-1, so I wasn't sure whether the activity was related to them or not, but I tended towards thinking it was as not much goes on in this part of the world.

One of the images is here, from 9-7-23, indicating the area of disturbance

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53033194525/in/dateposted-public/

And this image shows the area of disturbance, together with the new location revealed today, for Mbelele-1 superimposed

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53071357050/in/dateposted-public/

And this from Sentinel on 23-7-2023 showing around 6 white objects, 3 at either end of the disturbed field, all of which have arrived over the last 4 weeks.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53070900441/in/dateposted-public/

So this is indeed Noble activity, proof positive, presumably surveying the ground for Mbelele-1 in advance of drilling. No pad, or roadway as yet, but it looks like Mbelele-1 will be right next to the road, so only the minimum civil works required. It looks like everything is being done to save money, minimal civils, shallow drills etc.

I make no comment on their saying they'll be ready in Q3, execept "?", and as for their own internal resource update from 8bncf to 15bncf @3-5% helium, this appears to be just from the Lake Beds, of He1's resource their CPR assumes around 1% He, and most of it from the Upper Karoo, with the Lake Beds only providing a small part of the resource.

This is obviously another area to now keep an eye on, along with Tai-3 and Camp Rukwa.

And Chesterfield, but mainly cloudy there.

They can now drill ad infinitum.

Possibly also all year round, given the right logistics and planning.

That is transformational.

I'm advised by my interloquitor that the 'hint of yellow' arrived at Camp Rukwa around 18th/19th July.

I regard him as highly reliable.

LB is playing her cards close to her chest. She will play her ace(s) when ready.

PS. The party hasn't even started yet.

Okay, we'll use this thread as it has the better header.

Looking at the long object at Camp Rukwa arriving between 15-7 and 20-7, it is around 40 M long by 15M wide, it could be a large tent, one was used in 2021, or it could be a number of large vehicles parked together.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53064456497/in/dateposted-public/

The Predator is around 14M long, but my interlocutor tells me that it will have arrived on a low loader making it around 20 M long. That and three/four lots of support equipment would account for the large blob in the centre. Anyone else see the slightest hint of yellow there?

Taking account of the scales involved there could be around a dozen large vehicles parked at Camp Rukwa as at 20-7.

Just for context this is what Camp Rukwa looked like in 2021 during drilling Tai-1, for those who are coming late to the party.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52902443112/in/dateposted-public/

This is a ground level view provided by Saint Lorna, which enabled me to geolocate locate Camp Rukwa, there aren't many manicured hedges or telecoms masts in Rukwa, but I now know the location of every single one!

There aren't many images of Camp Rukwa either, they seem to want to keep it a bit under wraps.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52896943825/in/dateposted-public/

And this is a view tweeted in 2021 by DM himself, from just beyond the treeline to the south, looking north towards the telecom mast.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52904324752/in/dateposted-public/

Location of Camp Rukwa in relation to Tai, 16 km as the crow flies, already posted, but for newbies

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52904294727/in/dateposted-public/

URL for the last image was cut off, here it is

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53065389810/in/dateposted-public/

You can flick back and forth between the images to see how they change over time.

Personally I think talk of a second drill at this stage, by Saint Lorna herself, is really quite relevant.

I don't think He1 will wait for the results of the first drill before deciding what to do.

They have already decided.

What they don't know is what the results of the first drill will be.

So they will have planned out a whole range of scenarios, numbered 1 - 20, depending on how good, or bad those results will be.

If the result of Tai-3 is scenario number 8, then they go for plan H, if 9 then plan I, etc. It iwill all have been planned and costed in advance, so that all the equipment they need for plans A through to T, and no doubt various minor permutations, whichever one they choose will be available, without them having to wait for some new equipment to arrive.

Building the 2 1/2 km roadway, the Tai-3 massive pad, the massive TNR base camp (possibly also to be Tai-4), will have cost quite a bit, $ millions, so the idea that they will wait until 2024, if they get a successful drill in 2023 is to me inconceivable. These works are on a different scale to those at Tai-1.

Saint Lorna plays her cards close to her chest.

Building of Tai-3 commenced, we know know at the beginning of May 2023 (it was there but I didn't see it). Negotiations for the purchase of the Predator rig began, we now know, around the beginning of May 2023. We were all looking the other way, at the Sofori Predator, but likely LB knew by early May 2023, it was already likely history. She and Noble just needed to get out cleanly, from whatever deal they had made.

So that she now mentions a second drill in fact, to me, means that it already nailed on. Only a duster, if that occurs, would mean that they would have to completely rethink what they were doing, as a no show here, their best researched and most understood prospect would mean that they had got their reasoning and methodology wrong.

This is where owning your own rig really comes into its own.

90% (ish) of the expenditure in 2023 has been on the rig and earthworks and pads(s). 10% (ish)is on running costs, so the cost of drilling an additional well in 2023 is probably just wages for the drillers. So having spent 90%, you might as well spend that additional 10%, to get 50%+ more in results.

So if they drill mid September to mid October, they then have another month before the rains to drill again, either from Tai-3, or from the TNR base, above the highest part of the top Karoo. Appraise, CPR, raise.

More details on Camp Rukwa

This is it on 5-7-23

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53065518293/in/dateposted-public/

This on 20-7-23

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53065023856/in/dateposted-public/

with my annotations (revised)

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53064456497/in/dateposted-public/

Sentinel is a land use tool, hence the fuzzy images

This is the best pad I can get 20-7-23

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06

I think if the graph shows anything it is how 'leaky' He1 was in 2021.

The share price 'anticipated' good news, and bad.

This year hopefully things have changed, thus far it appears it is so.

Camp Rukwa was created around May 2021 for Tai-1.

It has been "mothballed" until earlier this year when the pipes and well head casing arrived.

The give away was the photo tweeted by Saint Lorna with the telecom mast in the background, and the manicured hedge. There aren't many telecom mast around Rukwa, but locating them all took a few days, and then one appeared with an interesting "camp" next to it.

I could then compare the tweeted photo with Google Earth and - there it was.

I've been watching ever since but today was the first really big change.

So the Tai-3 pad and the TNR base and roadway are all new, Camp Rukwa (DM's named it) is pre existing.

I'm expecting more "stuff" to arrive over the next week or two, prior to the pad being completed and it will then be shipped there and put into action. Camp Rukwa will likely remain the support base, for accommodation, workshops, offices etc.

Not as yet, they may be surveying, but nothing definite.

I wonder if they'll use TNR for civils, once they've finished at Tai? Part of the cooperation agreement may still be live?

Okay, not much time at the moment, Sentinel has overflown again, pad looks very interesting?

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53059897803/in/dateposted-public/

But of more (much, much more) interest is Camp Rukwa 14km east of Tai

This is it on 15-7-2023 false colour

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53057493926/in/dateposted-public/

This is it now

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53058840582/in/dateposted-public/

And with my annotations

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53059898468/in/dateposted-public/

This is it in 2021 for context during drilling of Tai-1, via Maxar and GE

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52902443112/in/dateposted-public/

This is how we know there are pipes there, cos Saint Lorna told us so,

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52896943825/in/dateposted-public/

And this is where it is in relation to Tai

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52904294727/in/dateposted-public/

I say, I just caught a "whiff" of a rig, don't ya know!

How about spilling the beans,

Saint Lorna?

Something, in fact a number of large objects have "arrived"

There will be no TR1 as He1 is domiciled in the BVI, and the normal rules don't apply.

Well everyone on here knows what to do in the interim.

Barring some major disaster this is shaping up very nicely.

The herd will arrive, eventually.

Dai, I understand that photography is discouraged, but that is not to say that there are no photographs, only that I don't know of any.

We will have to wait for Saint Lorna to start tweeting, to see what morsels are cast in our direction, and then if possible draw some conclusions from them.