Member Info for skittish

The rig is 100 miles from He1 HQ, straight up the M1, 12,500 miles from Noble HQ.

The mind boggles.

I think we would have to aim to be all packed up by mid November.

Rains started early December last year, this year we have La Nina turning into El Nino, which should mean theoretically that the 3 year East African drought is over and rainier times are ahead.

So working backwards

All packed up - mid November

2 week contingency - beginning November

set up and spud - beginning October

2 week transport - rig arrives Tz mid September

So there are around 10 weeks to get the rig to Tz, as transport by ship is 6 weeks we have around 4 weeks maximum to get it sorted and on that ship.

No wonder Noble jumped, they were out of time as that 4 weeks was their drilling time for even their first well, Mbelele-1.

Unless it is travelling by mid August it would be impossible to drill this year, I'd say, as we also would be out of time.

I did a similar exercise last year and concluded fairly early on that we wouldn't drill.

Maybe Noble had a different cut off date built into their part of the LOI, as they were drilling second. Our Notice of Rectification is maybe an attempt to bring forward a cut off date for ourselves so we can go elsewhere without incurring any penalty, if Sofori have incurred costs in dealing with us.

A similar, but forwards exercise for Noble would be

Ship end July

Arrive Tz end September

2 weeks to site mid October

Set up and spud mid October to mid November

Pack up and restore site mid to end November

So they will only get one well in this year, even then it is tight, and if we went with them now we would have to wait until May 2024 to drill.

Perhaps that is why we remain with Sofori for the time being, but time is starting to run very tight for both companies to drill in 2023.

But we could still spud first! Shipping from Tunisia to Tz is two weeks less for us and Noble aren't going anywhere until end July. So if and it is a big IF, Sofori got themselves and the rig sorted, we could still spud first at this point in time and pip Noble by a couple of days/weeks. And our drill pad is coming along nicely.

Share price recovering nicely (amazing) but perhaps a few are looking at the bigger picture.

Well done anyone who got in below 5!

I too am surprised the share price hasn't fallen more. It is disconcerting that we are still chasing Sofori, to whom we were introduced by Noble, when Noble have already walked away.

Sofori do appear to be a hapless outfit.

But my central take from this is that Noble will drill at Rukwa, around 80km from us in Q3.

Whether we have drilled by then or not I think the result of that Noble drill will impact heavily upon the share price here.

If successful will prove up what is presently only a concept, ie that there is recoverable helium at Rukwa. Indeed Keith Oz seems to think that we have the better acreage.

Noble and He1 remain linked, as the always will be, if not by contract, then by geography.

I expect groundworks at Nobles site to commence post haste, nothing so far, but they cannot delay long.

Now they've been forced to break radio silence let's have a couple of dozen pics on twitter of the ongoing works on the ground.

They've got to get the PR going to repair the damage of Noble being first to the Marriott rig.

Already marked down prior to opening.

How do you know it is false hope?

Please do tell...

If you can't see anything then it is because you don't want to.

That is a drill pad and access road in precisely the location indicated in the CPR.

People can sell or buy, as they wish, but clearly there is significant activity and major works at the intended drill site.

But I don't think anyone should base investment decisions on bb posts.

Each to their own.

Difficult to say whether they could use it next year.

The Tai-1 pad was completely cleared at the end of the 2021 season, all trace of the pad and roadway completely and very efficiently removed, save perhaps for a small fenced area around the well head. Soon after they finished drilling there was no trace that they had ever been there at all. This must be part of the agreement with the Tz authorities.

Whether they could use the pad next year and not remove, if they couldn't drill this year, I'm unsure. Theoretically they could use it I guess, with refurbishment, but the locals may not be too pleased if their activities are interrupted by the roadway, which cuts across the landscape and interrupts many tracks used by them. Heritages 2018 pad on the other side of Lake Rukwa, never used, is still there albeit slightly underwater now.

The access route to the pad at Tai-3 is also interesting. They could have used the same route as at Tai-1 and extended by around 1km further NW. Maybe it was the topography, but an alternative reason is that now another, different set of farmers /landowners have received monetary compensation all along that 2.5km route, which would I imagine be very generous in terms of the local economy, and paid in hard cash. For an economy which probably relies much on subsistence agriculture and barter, that would carry much weight in keeping the locals on board.

Large scale injections of hard $$$, are probably few and far between around the Lake Rukwa area.

The locals are people they would need to keep on side, so I expect the pad will be used to drill this year.

And that they keep building it suggests to me all is generally on track for Q3, even if we don't endless breathless tweets telling us such.

Just in case anyone doubts that they are indeed getting on with things, this is a rough collage of images of the roadway leading to the pad taken every 5 days, left to right 20-6-2023, 25-6-2023, 30-6-2023, 5-7-2023.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53025332606/in/dateposted-public/

Significant progress every 5 days is clear.

I can't vouch for the rig, and quite why they don't RNS/tweet progress is something of a mystery, save that LB has said they won't until the rig is signed.

But we see clear non rig, albeit rig related (you can't put the rig in an unprepared field), progress on the ground, so I for one would say that there is progress in other areas, but simply we cannot see it.

Unlike the progress at the drill pad, which we can see, given to us by the wonders of 21st century technology.

Imagine there was no Sentinel, then you couldn't even see the progress on the pad, or even know that there was a pad.

Unless all this is a complete charade, which I don't believe, the rig will be on its way in due course, to meet the already prepared pad, and drilling will commence and be completed prior to the rains coming.

We indeed will see whether LB is a woman of her word in two respects, firstly delivery on the rig in Q3, secondly no RNS until they have the rig contract.

I expect she will deliver on both.

All IMHO, DYOR etc, etc...

Should be "now a different colour".

Also, as yet, no obvious changes at "Camp Rukwa" 14km to the east, which will be the main forward operating base once they get drilling.

Latest image are available.

This is an overview of Tai-3 and the surrounding area.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53025075236/in/dateposted-public/

There have been some changes to the pad area. The roadway now appears completely gravelled, from one end to the other, so as to be ready to receive heavier vehicles. 10 days ago it was around 30% gravelled, 5 days ago 50%.

This is a closeup of the pad area, clearly evidence of vehicle movements from 5 days ago, although the immediate access road appears darker rather than a lighter brown gravel colour.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53024496642/in/dateposted-public/

The pad does not yet appear to have been surfaced with light grey gravel as one would expect prior to delivery of the rig.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53025247859/in/dateposted-public/

Trees on the pad are still evident, but it has a more mottled appearance than 5 days ago. Possibility there is some equipment/vehicles there in SW/SE corner.

Access road

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53025466285/in/dateposted-public/

Grey roofed structure is still there, access road is no a different colour to the "layby" area adjoining to the right.

Clearly work has been continuing over the last 5 days, but they appear in no rush at present.

"Been trying to buy a small amount all morning, looking at all the sells on here looks like i`m the only one buying"

But what does that tell you?

Lots of selling, at the same prices as yesterday, even though the price is marked down, but no one can buy?

Tomfoolery about.

I'm sure LB is very busy, too busy to answer a load of pestering emails, but if people think a few emails are going to elicit a response before Saint Lorna is ready I suspect that they are deceiving themselves.

The Lady is made of sterner stuff than a load of panicky private investors.

Lucky us!

Time would be better spent looking round GE and Sentinel to try to discern what is going on.

All IMHO, DYOR etc, etc...

The thing is...LB knows what is actually going on, so it is within her power to decide what will look good or alternatively terrible.

We merely take part in wild speculation.

It seems to me that they are waiting for a liquidity event, either BMN (unlikely at this point, although there are many supporters of vanadium), or the WeShop IPO, if it happens later this year, sometime next.

Like watching paint dry, but it depends on your time horizon.

Another day of unusual volume, 8M+, on no news.

I commented on the unusual volume for 28-6-23, 9M, the following day.

This volume, on a no news day, is exceptional. It isn't the buys or sells that are important, or even the direction of the share price, but volume.

Maybe the stars are aligning, after all.

IMHO, DYOR etc, etc...

It certainly is odd. I would never have believed that we would have to rely on sentinel for news as opposed to tweets.

But you have to admire her - she is sticking to her guns, the lady certainly isn't for turning.

As an aside Tai-3 is located at around 843 metres altitude. This is of more than passing importance.

I had mentioned previously that Lake Rukwa was expanding, but casually dismissed any concerns here that it would impact He1. I still believe that is the case, but the expansion appears to be continuing, and is quite dramatic.

This is Lake Rukwa in June 2018 -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53013290526/in/dateposted-public/

This is the exact same area today

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53013453509/in/dateposted-public/

Tai-3 is around 3km south of the area marked Kamsamba.

The lake level appears to have reached around 808M, Ivuna-1 is now close to the shoreline at around 817M. All the low lying land including the He1 2018 survey camp is now well under water.

I think there is a watershed to the north of the lake at around 840M, so if it ever did reach this level Tai would still be safe, albeit a bit "coastal".

Graphic, previously posted, of the ever expanding lake.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52156773915/in/dateposted-public/

Overview of locality, false colour, today 30-6-2023

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53013366874/in/dateposted-public/

25-6-2023

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53012612527/in/dateposted-public/

Latest images from Tai -

Overall view as at 30-6-2023, pad is at the top margin, entry to access road at the bottom

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53013519565/in/dateposted-public/

Contrast with this image from 25-6-2023, the gravelling on the access road now covers around 50% of the access road, as opposed to around 20% 5 days ago.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53013519155/in/dateposted-public/

If you flick between the two images using the arrows then the more recent work becomes obvious.

This is the entry to the access road as at 30-6-2023

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53013141641/in/dateposted-public/

There is at least one structure on there, around 20 metres by 5 metres, shows up pale grey. There is a similar structure at Rukwa Base 14 km east which is permanent. That at Tai has been there for around 15 days. Possibly security/offices. Other darker objects seem to come and go, so possibly vehicles.

This is the pad area itself

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53013141801/in/dateposted-public/

Not much change there, the dark areas near the centre of the pad appear to be trees, at least 3 haven't yet been removed. The pad is a different colour to the roadway, but does not yet appear to be the distinctive grey one would expect if it had been completed.

So more work to do, perhaps not surprising as the rig must be at least 8 weeks form arrival as yet, but clearly work is continuing.

Its all them weak sellers being snapped up by someone...

I think the thing with the rig and its present location, is that just to the north of Tunisia is Europe which has a massive need for gas, having reduced imports from its main previous outside supplier, Russia, to zero over the last 18 months.

There will be no shortage of work in Tunisia for this rig.

But for little known Sofori, it could be a company maker, if they play it right - so there is a great opportunity in Tz for them also.

As for other rigs, I'm doubtful that they could get another across Africa and drill two wells within four months.

As for Sofori, don't underestimate them or their countrymen - ever tried haggling at a bazzar?

"Arabs are born to trade; which is what makes them so formidable at the negotiating table. Having to trade to get most of their products throughout the centuries has made them shrewd negotiators in modern business."

proeliumlaw.com/negotiating-tactics/

Happy days...

This has become a *really* interesting situation.

Has gogs got it right and He1 and Noble are being put through the wringer by Sofori?

Quite possible, as things seem to have got a bit out of kilter.

The end Q2 shipping date appears to have come from those ultra slick salesmen (too ultra slick, if you ask me) at Noble, and only Noble. All He1 have said is spud Q3, although it was mid August at the AGM. Now they say nothing, and even the last RNS didn't mention any spud date.

But we see extensive pad preparation going on at the Tai-3 location, and the latest images (25-6-23) showed what appeared to be two additional structures at the entrance to the access road, making three in all, as well as an embankment where the access way crosses the dip caused by the surface fault on its way to the pad.

But you would normally expect a rig contract signed prior to all these works being commenced, not after.

So He1 is truly committed to the "drill in 2023" scenario, whether it be in Q3 or Q4.

My post of a few days ago, emphasised that in 2021, at Tai-1/2 He1 had erased the pad and accessway at the end of the drilling season and restored all the fields to their original state, only a small area around the wellhead remains likely fenced. That is probably a term of the drilling rights, that everything had to be restored to its original state, hence at the end of 2023 He1 will likely have to obliterate everything, even if drilling has not taken place. Contrast with the 1987 wells, where their locations and seismic can still be seen to this day.

So He1 is truly committed, and a year delay if that happened would cost a minimum $3.6M just for administration, let alone several $M in wasted costs. So it is now or "never".

So if the pad works (and drill pipes, well head) have come before the rig contract no wonder Sofori are pushing hard.

Maybe they want more $, maybe a payment in equity, in the event of success - Mitchell were entitled to be paid partly in shares for the 3rd and 4th wells - a massive win in the event of success. Maybe they are after equity in both He1 and Noble, something Noble may baulk at as they are fundraising, and can't issue until end July anyway.

And I am a little suspicious of recent share trading. Normal volume is around 3-4M, with the odd spike on news like 15M on 5-6-23 when Noble did its fundraise, 15M also on 22-5-23 when we got the new CPR, 10M on 6-4-23 the rig LOI news. But spikes on no news are unusual. On the 28-6-23 we had a 9M day - on no news.

If Sofori can squeeze He1/Noble for $ on the one hand, and control the flow of news on the other, which clearly they could if they so wished, it would make sense (IMHO, DYOR) for them (or some related party) to try to have a little side bet on share price performance over the next couple of months.

I'm sure Saint Lorna and the team are working hard to bring this home.

And I'm sure it will come home - at the right price and once the stars align.