Watch LIVE the focusIR May Investor webinar with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund here.
Just a quickie.
This is the pad for Tai-3 taken by Sentinel, in optimised colour.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53036147922/in/dateposted-public/
The pad looks a more greyish colour, and less mottled than 5 days ago, so it may now have been at least partly gravelled with stone ready to receive our new rig.
The roadway is quite a different colour.
No other obvious changes that I can detect. It may be that most of the preparatory work has now been completed. Will look in more detail in a few days.
Thanks, a few more that may interest you -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52771234238/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52925328096/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52868098870/in/dateposted-public/
The project looks good, it is just the execution that looks somewhat wobbly.
D66,
A newbie!
Try each companies website.
Or you might try here -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52857082558/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52756774476/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52363968479/in/dateposted-public/
Good luck with your investment.
I wonder - if the activity indeed be Noble, the 13-7-23 Sentinel pass should tell us - will they be as circumspect as He1 when it comes to Twitter.
Somehow I doubt that those slick oily salesmen will hide their light under a bushel.
Expect a twitterstorm shortly.
Left hook Friday, Noble rig announcement, right hook Monday/Tuesday, Noble twitter pics of groundworks. He1 left reeling.
C'mon He1, unless you are going to look like a load of dullards, you've got to give something away.
All the pics of the He1 pad and roadway are all on the computers at HQ.
Release them!
You can't be accused of creating a false market as the share price is trashed anyway.
Pics, and a suitable RNS on the lines previously outlined, might just convince a few battered shareholders that you are after all earning your crusts.
Or not, as the case may be.
Silence could be considered a winning strategy when all is going to plan, when it is all falling apart, it don't work.
I'll tell you what I'm hoping for next week.
A really big announcement from He1 that they've got things sorted.
Hopefully they haven't had the weekend off, not on £200k per annum anyway, and have been feverishly doing a deal.
It doesn't matter if it is with Noble, doesn't matter if it is a drill in May 2024, it just needs to be realistic, detailed and achievable.
None of this woolly 'alternative rig provider' nonsense, no by now, unrealistic drill dates, no 'we've written a really nasty letter and we've now heard they've run out of bog roll in Tunis'.
Simple, detailed and achievable so people know that it is the real deal, and can invest accordingly.
I always hedge my bets!
But previously both He1 and Noble have really highlighted drilling in the dry season.
DM of course was going to drill in Q1 23, but quite a few called him out on that.
I'm not really upto speed on AEX so can't comment, may look into it, if they could drill all year round that would be great, I'm just not convinced at this stage, that's all.
One has to be realistic.
The Marriot rig won't even arrive at Rukwa until mid October. By mid November it will possibly be raining hard. Nobles area is close to some very wide rivers. There will only be one spud with this rig in 2023.
And it won't be Noble who decides when the rig is withdrawn to safety, but Marriot.
What triggered Noble withdrawing with Sofori, apart from Soforis performance was that they had run out of time with the Sofori rig, if they were going second.
The rains and terrain determine everything.
Some on the other side are talking about Noble going first with the Marriot rig and then us going in Q4, they are deluded and need to get a pencil and a calendar.
And Sofori are not going to come through. They didn't for Noble and won't for us. It's all in the timing. The NoR is to get us out of any possible obligations (the "legal advice" bit tells you that) not to get Sofori to perform.
The latest images from 8-7-2023 are now available for Nobles area of operation at Rukwa.
Noble have always been pretty vague about where exactly they were intending to drill. There is some evidence of activity around 1km north of my northernmost location for Mbelele-1.
This was the area on 28-6-2023
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53033293968/in/dateposted-public/
No unusual activity, although a field in the centre appears to have been harvested a few days earlier.
Same location on 3-7-2023
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53033294083/in/dateposted-public/
The field has now turned brown and a small track/roadway now leads off the main road, at the point of the overhanging tree and then circles around the back of the field.
This is the latest image from yesterday, 8-7-2023
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53033208780/in/dateposted-public/
The field has darkened and 3/4 white objects have appeared at the southern most part of the field, 1 large and 2/3 smaller objects. There is also now a white object around 300 metres north of the field, which was not there earlier. There is some evidence of tree lopping on the boundary of the roadway.
You can flick through the images and the objects magically appear and disappear. This is not an area where much changes, and certainly groups of new objects are unusual.
This is the location on Google Earth using Maxar imagery. Most of the image is from 21-5-2022, (although the easternmost part is from 2013), with Nobles map of helium anomalies and the main BMF fault line superimposed, with my annotation.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53033194525/in/dateposted-public/
The new activity is right next to the main BMF, and around 500 metres north of the biggest helium anomaly Noble could find. The location is interesting because the main river to the north is crossed by a ford, there is no bridge. Any rain and the route to the north is cut off for heavy (or any) equipment. The river to the south has a bridge, but this appears to be the last one heading up from the south.
It is early days, and the activity could be something else, but IMHO it could well be the start of Noble building a pad.
Also interesting that activity appears to have started around 25-6-2023. Possibly Noble knew then they were about to get a rig, could tie in with a 14 day Notice of Rectification from them as they knew Sofori couldn't/wouldn't perform.
Not definitive but definitely an area to keep an eye on.
Next Sentinel pass 13-7-2023.
Well, if Nobles Mbelele-1 well is a duster, then there will have been 3 and a bit holes drilled at Rukwa over 3 years, and none of them will have discovered free flowing helium.
Bearing in mind Nobles much vaunted 100% BMF success rate, I'd say it would call into question the whole basis of what both companies are doing at Rukwa and the theory underpinning that.
In which case both companies are likely to struggle to get anywhere in 2024, or any time thereafter.
Indeed it would be an effort to build back trust, but it would benefit both sides, and as you say it is business.
But how else can it be done, it is unlikely we can get another suitable rig on site in 23, and there is one there for the taking.
I could post a picture of what I believe to be Sofori's yard but believe me you don't want to see it.
It is the sort of image you can't forget.
It makes Steptoe and Son look the height of sophistication, Marriotts yard is paved with gold in comparison.
So I for one would be happy if lb proceeded along the lines outlined...
A way forwards....
You have to deal with what you've got not what you want to have.
The Sofori deal is dead, Fridays RNS told us that.
There will be a rig in Rukwa in October 23.
The Noble relationship is severely damaged, they've shafted us. But lb needs to swallow her pride and go with them, their RNS says they are still willing to work with us.
They will only have time for 1 well in 23, Mbelele-1.
If it is a discovery then he1 can raise at 20p to 30p, £10-15m, only 100m shares or so around November 23, and then drill in 24.
Winter the rig at our already built Rukwa Base, then we drill 3 Wells, May June July 24, Noble drill 3, August September October 24.
Then go from there.
It is the only sensible way forwards.
I did give what I estimate to be their timeline earlier today, I think they'll struggle to do both. The rig won't leave till end July, then 8 weeks to Tz, so won't even arrive until the end of September.
Then 8 weeks for everything, including factoring whether the rains come early?
Very tight for two, but they may just get one in and a discovery.
And that is all He1 need to stay afloat.
I suspect the NoR is not a means to contract them, but a way of getting a clean break on the LoI.
I'm assuming Noble also served a NoR, and the things requiring rectification have not been rectified, so they are able to say 'sod you' to Sofori and move on.
If their requirements were not rectified, then presumably He1's requirements, which will be identical will also not be rectified, so then He1 can also say 'sod you', but 24 hours later, possibly around 4pm today.
Now it is a question of who has an available Drillmec HH 102 which can be in Rukwa by the beginning of October.
Because Sofori have done work, or forgone other contracts in reliance of He1/Noble saying "we will take your rig".
It is not a contract but Sofori's overall position has bene damaged, they would say, in relying upon promises made by He1/Noble.
So to get out of any possible claims/or threats of claims they have to say it is Sofori who have not performed and therefore we are entitled to walk away, even if Sofori are now in a worse position than they would have been had we not said we would take your rig.
Thinking about how this has arisen.
If Noble had a cut off date in the LOI everyone would have known about it including He1, and He1 could have adjusted their plans accordingly. Obviously they haven't.
However, I think it possible Noble had an internal cut off date ie now, for rig share with He1 and Sofori.
So if Noble had filed a Notice of Rectification with Sofori (so as to avoid any possible claims under the LOI) say 7 or 14 days ago, to expire yesterday, then He1 may not have been given notice of that and have been unaware of it until the following day, or possibly a couple of days.
So Lorna would not have been surprised that this thing was thundering down the tracks.
What may have surprised her is the speed at which Noble then contracted with Marriot, possibly within an hour or two of their NoR expiring.
But what would He1 have done 6 or 13 days ago, as soon as they found out Noble had filed a NoR?
Yes, that's right, they would have filed their own NoR to expire 7 or 14 days hence, ie probably expiring today or tomorrow, and hoping that they could make the time up with Marriott, who I suspect has been on some radars for a week or two now.
But they were out manoeuvred by Noble who put pen to paper as soon as their NoR expired, leaving He1 holding the baby. He1 could not contract earlier to save holding two babies. That was the surprise this morning.
So end result is that He1 could be free of Sofori, if they so wished within the next few hours. Question is where then?
But at least Rukwa will get drilled in 2023, that is effectively guaranteed, and is significant progress from yesterday.
It just may not be He1 doing the drilling.
Thinking about it He1's cash burn is around $300,000 whilst ticking over, as per the last set of accounts.
I'd estimated that with drilling, say at slightly under $10M, and following the raise last December taking them to around $13M cash, they'll run out of money in early 2024.
If they retain finance for just drilling one well, then to get them to say mid October 2024, with no other activity they will be around $3M- $4M short.
That is what they'd need to raise if the drill was delayed until May 2024.
Disappointing, but not a massive ask.