Member Info for skittish

And don't forget they began building Tai-3 in April, or even earlier, but not a peep from them until July.

I think Saint Lorna has 3 million options, she doesn't actually need to buy shares, although she might.

3M x £x = a lot of money!

The cleared area in relation to the Tai structure

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53100437761/in/dateposted-public/

and in relationship to Tai-3, at present there is no direct line, the cleared area can only be accessed by truck from the north west

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53100841565/in/dateposted-public/

This may be a long post, so please bear with me, but it is possible to postulate (IMHO, DYOR etc, etc) that Helium One's planning is much more advanced than they have admitted to or has been speculated about on here previously.

Saint Lorna plays her cards close to her chest, and in reality only gives away the minimum to keep investors (at least those on this board) happy, but it is possible to argue that their plans are actually far more mature than the company would ever presently admit.

Feel free to criticise (constructively) as what I put on here leads down a very long rabbit hole....

This is the general layout at Rukwa, showing Camp Rukwa and the Tai site, together with the main road running from Itumbula to and the Camp towards Kasamba and Tai.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53100937318/in/dateposted-public/

Some time ago I noticed the heavy use of a roadway some distance from Tai off the main Itumbula to Kasamba highway.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53097236815/in/dateposted-public/

Now Google Earth shows very few vehicles in the area of Rukwa, even cars and vans are quite rare, so heavy traffic, likely trucks, is even rarer still. The heavily used roadway however seemed to peter out after running a few km, and I didn't persue where it might lead to. There was a new building near the roadway, however this may not be related to He1, infact probably isn't.

However the roadway headed northwards and after a while I noticed in that northern direction that there is another roadway which also appears to have been subject to greater use recently.

This image shows the roadways

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53099900527/in/dateposted-public/

Question was, why are there roadways which are effectively in the middle of nowhere, a number of km from Tai suddenly showing the effects of greater use by heavy traffic?

Especially as this greater use was occurring at the same time the first stages of the earthworks to build Tai-3 and its own access roadway had commenced.

Answer – possibly - that there is another “facility” (I'll call it that for now), hitherto undisclosed by He1, which is presently “under construction” by Helium One and which remains “secret”.

I'll call it a “facility” (the facility) as that is a fairly neutral description.

Question – where is this other “facility” and what would its purposed be?

Well after al little searching it is here -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53100876220/in/dateposted-public/

cont/...

Cont/...

Part 2

What is it? That is unclear, but I will speculate shortly...and then speculate some more, as the existence of this facility, and its construction (that may be going it a bit as they appear to have only cleared an area of ground) at this stage could be really important for what is really going on – remember those cards, and ace poker player Saint Lorna.

Of course, I don't know whether Saint Lorna does play poker, ace or otherwise, but I bet if she did there would never be even a hint of a smile.

Anyway, how do we know that this is Helium One at work?

Well there are several clues.

Firstly, no-one else that we know of is operating heavy equipment around Tai, there is no evidence for this.

Secondly, look at the location of the new cleared facility, it is almost exactly 350Mx350M, a whopping 120,000 sq metres, and it appears to be closely related to the Tai structure. It is so large it can be represented by four “pins” on the GE map.

The outlines of the cleared area are directly parallel and perpendicular to the closest seismic line (it also happens to sit on another seismic line) to the west. The southern border of the Tai pad is exactly 1998 metres (2km) from the northernmost point of the facility, and most importantly it sits just outside the boundary of the Tai structure – which I think is a major clue to its purpose. It also straddles two licence areas, why I don't know, we don't know the terms of the licences, but I do not believe that a square cleared area 350Mx350M, just on the outer edge of the Tai structure covering a part of two licence areas in the vastness of Rukwa is mere coincidence. I don't believe in coincidences.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53100431881/in/dateposted-public/

Thirdly its construction coincides with the construction of the Tai-3 pad and DNR camp.

Earthworks for the Tai-3 pad commenced at the end of April beginning of May, this is the new facility in mid April 2023

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53100654494/in/dateposted-public/

this in mid May

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53099902572/in/dateposted-public/

Presumably all this work was carried out by DNR, at the same time as they were building Tai-3.

The area has been cleared of much vegetation but many trees remain, will He1 work round these or will some be lopped? A few trees actually remain at Tai-3, presumably it is one of the terms of the licence. So they may work around them.

It is also quite remote, well away from any major highways or centres of population, here I think we are getting close to thinking about its purpose.

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Part 3

Fourthly, it would appear to be located on the “wrong” side of Tai, you would have thought that any new facility would be closer to a roadway or Camp Rukwa. But this may also give a clue to its purpose.

This is an image taken from a presentation around May 2022 showing other prospects in the Tai area.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53097320963/in/dateposted-public/

Overlay that on GE and you get this -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53100621784/in/dateposted-public/

So the new facility is not so far away from other areas of interest to He1, and which we have been told so little about. And if you intended it to serve possibly these other areas, I'd submit this is around the place where you could build it.

The only other reason I can think of why this area has been cleared and possibly scooped out would be to provide material for Tai-3 and the roadway, (I estimate they may have needed 250K cu metres) but they'd already scooped out an area of around 300Mx500M for that south of Tai, and the distance to Tai-3 from this site would be around 20km, as there is no direct access, you'd have to go first east, then south, then west again along the highway, then north to reach Tai-3. 20km to transport material 2km, wouldn't make sense.

But I wouldn't rule this out entirely as there is another cleared area, (a little like the chaotic area south of the DNR Camp) located just to the north of this facility.

But if you were say building a production facility then you would want it to be outside the Tai trap structure, so as not to interfere with any future well planning, and a new roadway could be built to link with the Tai-3 roadway 2km to the south, ultimately giving quick access to the Kasamba to Itumbula highway. Thus a remote location, far away from populated areas, but reasonably close to He1's other plays.

So if (and it is if) this is groundwork for a production facility (although suggestions are welcome as to what else it could be), and it can't be for drilling as it is outside the Tai boundary, what does this tell us?

Well, we've already seen that the pad for Tai-3 is large, around 130Mx130M (16,900 sq metres), and the DNR Base Camp (now apparently empty) sitting directly above the Top Karoo is also large again around 130Mx130M. Compare that to Tai-1 around 70Mx40M (2,800 sq metres).

And this “facility” exactly 350Mx350M (122,500 sq metres) is larger still.

All this has cost money, and is so unnecessary for mere exploration drilling – Tai-1 was for exploration the footprint of this new “facility” is almost 50 times larger!

cont/...

Cont/....

Part 4

What this suggests to me (IMHO, DYOR etc etc) is that He1 planning is indeed way more advanced than anyone has hitherto realised. Not just a bit more advanced, but way, way more advanced. They are already not just planning, but actually carrying out work on the ground in anticipation of production.

Which in turn suggests to me that maybe they are not actually exploration drilling with Tai-3 (usual caveats apply) , but actually preparing for production.

And so this is what the present He1 map of Rukwa looks like at present,

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53102471670/in/dateposted-public/

and prior to annotation

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53102471420/in/dateposted-public/

Which then leads on to the suggestion that this confidence in being able to plan for production means that they did indeed have a discovery at Tai-1/1A, but couldn't prove it as they did not either take the necessary measurements, or their equipment was lacking at the time.

Remember Saint Lorna's trip to see the Ministry, shortly after her appointment in February, Chairman of Mining Commission, Professor Idris Kikula and his colleagues? I don't think that he or other officials in Tanzania would allow He1 to go around tearing up vast swathes of Tai and the local environment (and they do indeed appear to be tearing up vast swathes of Tai and its environs) without very good reason, and I don't think that a bit of exploration drilling could be considered good enough reason for the large scale works which we see on the ground at present.

And this would also make sense of buying your own rig, which is quite an odd thing for an exploration company in virgin territory to do.

I accept that this is an extraordinary claim, but would submit that the evidence I have provided is reasonably compelling.

All IMHO,DYOR, usual caveats, etc, etc...

For Tai-1 they had the Tai-1 drill site, but all the accommodation appears to have been at Camp Rukwa 14km east, DM actually tweeted about it.

For Tai-3 you have the much larger drill pad, then the DNR Camp 300M to the south, the same size as the Tai-3 pad, which now appears largely empty. So I guess you could use this for accommodation. Someone has also mentioned a cleared area a few metres to the NW of Tai-3 could also be used for accommodation.

As I've already mentioned the DNR camp coincidentally lies on the same seismic line as Tai-3, and ERT line, and sits directly above the highest part of the main target for Tai-3 the Top Karoo. I don't believe in coincidences.

But I think that there is much more going on at Tai than Saint Lorna is prepared presently to admit. More later (today) hopefully.

I know all the excitement is with He1, but just an update on the Noble situation and do I appreciate that at the present time most (if not all) posters on here are many times closer to their rig than their rig is to Rukwa....!?!?

Not much change at Mbelele-1, but this is their Mbelele-2 pad yesterday

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53102471060/in/dateposted-public/

and with annotations, emphasising the size of the pad area

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53102259624/in/dateposted-public/

Certainly looks like they will drill Mbelele-2 first, and are concentrating all their efforts there.

But I haven't been neglecting He1, far from it, as I think I may have found evidence on the ground, as it were, of the practical application of Saint Lorna's confidence in the forthcoming He1 drilling campaign. Some might think it a bit tenuous but I think it is fairly compelling. More to come shortly, when I get a chance to finish it.

Latest images from Rukwa are now available from Sentinel.

This is Camp Rukwa, 16 km east of Tai-3,

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53094691087/in/dateposted-public/

A white 'blob' which was present on the western side of the camp 5 /10 days previously has now disappeared, this was likely to have been either a single or a collection of vehicles which has now been moved away from the camp.

The large dark 'blob' in the centre of the camp which arrived around 10/14 days ago is now slightly lighter and more diffuse, vehicles are likely to have also moved from this location.

This is the Tai-3 pad

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53095653270/in/dateposted-public/

The diffuse black 'blob' which was lower centre of the pad 5 days ago is now more distinct and darker. Again this is likely to be a collection of vehicles and/or equipment.

The implication is that some vehicles and equipment seen at Camp Rukwa 5 days ago have now left Camp Rukwa and have now been transferred to the Tai-3 pad, as it moves closer to completion. Impossible to say whether the rig is amongst this collection of vehicles. Camp Rukwa still holds a significant number of vehicles and equipment.

This is the DNR Camp 300M south of the Tai-3 pad.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53095735614/in/dateposted-public/

As 5 days ago the Camp itself appears empty, suggesting that all the earthworks/ major pad building activity is now complete (although there may be some smaller vehicles/articles still present which can't be resolved by Sentinel), but a largish diffuse black patch has now appeared just outside the southern boundary of the camp. This could be a collection of vehicles or even the spreading of fertiliser on the newly cleared land which was used to quarry materials for the roadway and pad at Tai-3. The land excavated was largely wooded/scrub but having been cleared may now be available for use as farmland. A few weeks should show whether these are vehicles or fertiliser.

Just an update, latest images from Sentinel, appearing to show some progress at both sites.

Noble has said that Mbelele will be ready to receive the rig at the end of August. Unfortunately the images are not great as there was some high level cloud over Rukwa yesterday, hopefully will clear by tomorrow when we Tai is overflown.

Mbelele-1 site

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53089853307/in/dateposted-public/

This is Mbelele-2

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53090418946/in/dateposted-public/

Both sites offer direct access of the main highway, no 2 1/2km roadway for them. Mbelele-2 certainly appears more advanced, and looks like it will be drilled first. And Mbelele-1 looks very different in design to Mbelele-2, I wonder why, as they are both supposedly to serve the same purpose? It is possible that the appearance of Mbelele-1 will change over time, but it hasn't over the last month or so.

And if someone hasn't already said it Justyn Wood owns around 30% of Noble, so directors would appear to be aligned for success there.

Dai, yes that could be useful

I think you may both be right, they are confident, but the proof of the pudding etc...

But the sizes of the pads is what gets me, from memory

Tai-1 2,800 sq metres

Mbelele-1 as it now is 14,000sq metres

Tai-3 16,000sq metres

Mbelele-2 within the perimeter road about 70,000 Square metres.

D66, from earlier this morning, I'm not sure exactly what they will do.

I guess they've got to find and flow helium, first, then they'll decide.

But the pads appear very large to me, as is the DNR base directly above the highest part of the Top Karoo, the only photo we have seen shows it to be almost empty. Odd.

And Nobles Mbelele-2 drill area, taking its perimeter as the semi circular roadway is around 250M by 300M, seems very large for exploratory drilling, although it may also serve as a base camp.

We shall have to see what they do, neither are really giving very much away, Noble give a bit and lots of spin, but He1 are very tight lipped when it comes to real news, and what they think they may have got.

The race for first helium.

What a great story, what great publicity.

Who will spud first, or will they do it the same day, these 'rivals '?

4 to 6 wells between them in 2023, I reckon.

This all looks very interesting.

ALTE, at the last accounts had around £900K in cash with which to do DD, and finance other activities.

PRIM realised around £75K in investments in February, which I had assumed would keep it ticking over for around 12 months.

They then realised around another £85K in early July, I suspect that this is somehow related to the ALTE announcement today, maybe getting the company better positioned than it would otherwise be?

We should also be getting around $75K per week from BMN shortly, if the final payment is to be made on 30-11-23 then the initial payment looks to be made around 17-8-23, or maybe slightly before.

This announcement appears to have gone unnoticed by the market, only die hard PRIM'ers have really noticed, however these recent announcements could be transformational within a relatively (by PRIM standards) short timescale.

Completion Q4 23, place your bets with the runners and riders.

Just for completeness, this is Camp Rukwa as at 30-7-23, things will start to get interesting when it starts to empty...

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53082268440/in/dateposted-public/

and this is Tai-3 as at the same date

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53082115558/in/dateposted-public/

In theory, as Camp Rukwa empties of dark objects the Tai-3 pad should fill up with the same.

But we shall see.

Saint Lorna is full of surprises.

News must indeed be close, but don't forget He1 were building the Tai-3 pad for 3 months before they admitted such.

And now Noble have been building theirs for over a month, and silence from them on the topic, they're usually shouting from the rooftops.

Odd.

Yes, lots of news incoming, and not just from Helium One.

Noble, who are the apparent laggards have been making progress on the ground.

Not much change at the Mbelel-1 site, but this at Mbelel-2 which now seems more advanced. work actually started around beginning of July but things now shaping up so you can see that something is actually going on.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53079346780/in/dateposted-public/

You can't go around giving private briefings, with material information and then no RNS!

And they can't say it isn't material as it sort of put a bit of a rocket under the share price.

So I think RNS incoming, now a few mates have loaded up, as they can't really do otherwise.

Alarms set for 7.00AM.

But now for some nitty gritty, and I suspect we won't have to relay on Sentinel for much longer.

This is Camp Rukwa on 25-7-2023

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53073705023/in/dateposted-public/

Contrast with 20-7-2023

flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53073608270/in/dateposted-public/

So much more equipment has arrived even in the last 5 days. I estimated around a dozen lorry loads on 20-7-2023, probably double that for 25-7-2023. I reckon that is probably most of what they need, equipment wise, to drill.

This is the Tai-3 pad, 25-7-2023, with the similarly large TNR base just to the south in false colour. Now that the dry season is upon us contrast is no longer that good.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53073704883/in/dateposted-public/

True colour

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53073198691/in/dateposted-public/

And as for Noble this is the site of Mbelele-2, 23-7-2023, with vehicles close by. That is how the Mbelele-1 site started, so it looks like Noble will proceed with both their pads one after the other in quick succession.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53073346909/in/dateposted-public/

Just to get an idea of scales, at Tai-1 the pad was around 40M x 70M = 2,800 sq metres.

The area cleared by Noble for Mbelele-1, if this is to be their pad, as opposed to just a holding or support yard, here

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53070900441/in/dateposted-public/

is around 80M x 180M or 14,400 sq metres.

At Tai-3 the pad is around 130M x 130M or 16,900 sq metres.

The area cleared for the TNR Base, just south of Tai-3 is slightly larger still.

But rock on, looks like real news could be incoming fast...

Lets see what the pad and Camp Rukwa really look like, as they've been under wraps for so long...