Member Info for skittish

Thanks for that, good work.

I know Josh doesn't think that Nobles rig is Chesterfield, but that first photo at 13.51 is most definitely the stripped down mast of a Drillmec HH 102, without the circular tube holder surrounding.

If you look at the first picture here

https://www.gov.scot/publications/feasibility-report-deep-geothermal-single-well-aberdeen-exhibition-conference-centre/pages/11/

you will see that they are identical..

Now whether this is Nobles rig is a different matter, Marriott may own two, or more.

Sunday working is expensive so it looks like a rush job, I wonder what that can be?

Oh, and there were other clues.

Looking back at the Sentinel images surfacing of the access road starts not at one end but in the middle, near to the TNR camp.

And I always wondered how did they manage to build a 2 1/2 km roadway in 5 days? They didn't , they built two 1 1/4km roadways, starting in the middle near to the TNR camp.

And all that materiel to form the roadway, i was looking all over for a quarry, whereas the source was the unusual activity just south of Tai-3.

All obvious with hindsight, but I just needed a push in the right direction.

"@Skitish, I dont know how you spotted the camp, I still see nothing obvious..."

Well for over two months I didn't spot the camp.

Someone mentioned in May that there was unusual activity just south of the intended Tai-3 location but I dismissed that as just agriculture. When I have time I'll go back and see who that was.

But I do have a correspondent (who shall remain nameless, I don't know him personally) who basically said a few weeks ago "Skittish, great work, but you *really* *must* *try* *harder*.

When we got the photo of the TNR Camp I suggested it was the Tai-3 pad, but my correspondent said "Skittish, you *really* *must* *try* *harder*.

So I had help. Don't think that there are not people who see what we cannot see.

My correspondent has gone a little quiet at the moment, so that tells me, maybe, that I have passed the test.

D66,

PS.

and Tai-1 was drilled in the wrong location on the wrong side of the fault, they missed the Lake Beds completely as they were out of closure at that location, hence the move to Tai-3

Daven66,

He1 gave a presentation in February 2023 which allowed me to locate the intended Tai-3 pad to within around 100 metres using this photo here (the cross hairs are mine)

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52690670353/in/dateposted-public/

The drill pad as constructed is actually covers the two fields to the immediate NW of the middle of the "X", and using an image from the more accurate CPR in Mat 2023, here

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52925327666/in/dateposted-public/

I actually managed to get a pin precisely in the centre of the Tai-3 pad, as now constructed, here

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52925328096/in/dateposted-public/

So there is no doubt that this is the Tai-3 pad, I've been waiting 6 months for it to appear!

Also the CPR image emphasises the point I was making about the TNK base camp in my last post, it is located on the same seismic line as Tai-3, but unlike Tai-3 is directly over the sweetest spot of the Top Karoo, which is the main target at Tai.

The TNK base camp is a base camp in name only, IMHO, DYOR, etc, etc..

Yes, lagoon makes sense, and if has been lined with bitumen or already has some water in it that would account for the black colour on the false colour image.

There was no lagoon at Tai-1, but maybe they really mean business now.

Thinking about going forwards, obviously they are going to drill, and possibly several holes to appraise Tai, and the Top Karoo where they hope to find most of the helium. I think they are looking to finish by mid November, I don't see the earth access road lasting long in the wet season. Maybe get 3 wells in at a pinch if they are only moving the rig around the pad, and all goes well?

But there is a possible alternative scenario.

Similarities with the TNK Base camp and the Tai-3 pad as already discussed to some extent are, both are aligned N-S, both roughly the same size, on the same seismic line and both on the ERT line for detecting shallow voids. The TNK camp is also directly above the highest part of the Top Karoo.

And that picture they published of all the workers at the TNK camp I think was likely taken a couple of months ago (the ground is wet, very wet and it hasn't rained at Rukwa since the beginning of May), contrast that with the roadway image which we know was taken in the last few days/last week as the roadway has only been in existence for that time, there everything is dry and tan coloured, as befits the dry season.

In addition there is a vast open space to the side of the workers at the TNK base, and the back of the base is used for accommodation huts and latrines/showers. Why do they need all that space? Only really if it is another pad in the making, IMHO, DYOR.

What if they drill at Tai-3, intercepting any shallow voids (declare discovery after a weeks drilling?!), then intercept the Lake Beds (multiple levels), the the Top Karoo (main target), and into the Basement.

Then move the rig 250 metres south to the TNK base camp, which would by then have become the Tai-4 drill pad, hit a shallow void again (this helium stuff is everywhere, they would say), bypass the Lake Beds as they would be out of closure at this location, and then straight into the most prospective part of the Top Karoo and possibly on into the basement.

Then it is CPR time with an appraised Tai helium field, rinse and repeat in 2024 somewhere else, and maybe lease the rig out to Noble for a couple of months.

All IMHO, DYOR etc, etc...

No I don't pay. I use a slightly battered old desktop to do most of the stuff. I'm not really that computer literate, but like to think that I have a bit of a knack for this sort of imagery. ;-)

Yes, Dai, the latest Sentinel images from earlier today are intriguing.

This is true colour

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53047675947/in/dateposted-public/

showing a clearly neat rectangular area on the pad the edges of which are parallel with the edges of the pad, which is coloured green. The area is around 80Mx25M.

This is it in false colour

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53048444819/in/dateposted-public/

the three trees in the centre of the pad remain, looks like they'll work round them. The rectangular area is now a dark grey/black colour which suggests that it is wet or is water.

There are vehicle tracks leading to the far right end of the rectangle and hints of other vehicles on the pad. I'm not sure what it is, others will know more about pad construction than I, but obviously they are getting ready for the arrival of the rig.

It doesn't look like the rig is there yet.

The pad is again more grey than the earth coloured roadway, which we now know from ground level photographs is indeed constructed of earth, so this suggests that the pad was indeed surfaced with gravel around a week or so ago.

There looks to be a change at the entrance to the accessway off the main road, with a small structure, or possibly vehicle in addition to the existing container on site.

There are hints that a small amount of additional equipment has now arrived at Camp Rukwa, 14km to the east of Tai-3.

Things are now obviously really in full swing to get ready for that spud. They appear quite advanced, will it take another two months to get everything ready? I don't know, but they won't want to start drilling until everything is ready, so I think they'll wait for everything to arrive before starting. So they'll move at the speed of the slowest component. One of the major problems with Tai-1 is that they went before all the measuring equipment was on site, so missed much vital data. They can't afford any mistakes this time.

Also a strange orange blob has arrived around 50 metres away from the Tai-1 site. It is triangular, around 25Mx25M. It has been there for a couple of weeks, I assume it is something agricultural, but there is nothing else quite like it anywhere else close to the Tai site, or anywhere else for that matter. Something to keep an eye on.

Part of the problem now is that we are in the dry season, so everything Rukwa is turning a tan colour making it a bit harder to spot new activity. The problem is really trying to distinguish early stage He1 activity from normal agricultural works.

Anyway plenty of exciting known activities to keep us busy in any event.

Oops..missed out an image from that last post.

After this

"then an overview, of several overlays provided by He1 over the last couple of years, explaining why I think things are the way they are, like why isn't Tai-3 directly over the highest part of the Top Karoo? Commentary within the image.

The crucial thing is that the highest He emissions from the MSS survey, and the highest location of the Top Karoo are almost adjacent to each other. I in my simple way am thinking that the two are "linked", though not directly physically, and He1 with their much more detailed information know this. Maybe more geologically knowledgeable type K Oz (where are you?) and Josh could comment."

There should be this image

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53047166481/in/dateposted-public/

No great revelations here, but I do think if either He1 or Noble flow free helium on one of their first wells there could be a massive re rate here on a colossal scale.

Of course they have to find it first, and flow it, but that is why the shares are off many radars and why they are around 10p. Following the last couple of years I still think that He1 is a "forgotten" share, slightly more well known now, but my Flikr feed isn't getting that many more hits than before, in the earlier months of this year in the "dog days" photos would get around 50 hits, at the end of June it was around 200, now about 100. The highest is the Tai-3 "discovery" image with 653! The "boring" "Predator change paid off "image has 158, funny what people are interested in.

But the point is that this share, I think, is still the preserve of a few (very few) real long termers, who actually "believe" in the project, and is now overrun by traders (nothing wrong with that) who are in for a fast buck and will leave shortly after their targets are met. The "herd" willing to invest in the project for its merits, following headlines, are yet to appear.

Anyway I was hoping to do a racing type commentary on the race to first discovery, but at the moment it ain't much of a race. Our rig can't be far of arrival in Rukwa, but Nobles rig still appears, from Sentinel, to be in Chesterfield, although it may have been stripped down for inspection or shipping. Anyone living nearby, you could get a piccy, it is just behind the main gates to Marriott's yard. There is some evidence, not definitive that, that Noble may be surveying at Mbelele, but I'll await more from Sentinel before deciding for sure.

Anyway a couple of pics from Sentinel, old ones from 10-7-23, of Tai-3 false colour, first the original image

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53047478735/in/dateposted-public/

then with my annotation

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53047092546/in/dateposted-public/

then an overview, of several overlays provided by He1 over the last couple of years, explaining why I think things are the way they are, like why isn't Tai-3 directly over the highest part of the Top Karoo? Commentary within the image.

The crucial thing is that the highest He emissions from the MSS survey, and the highest location of the Top Karoo are almost adjacent to each other. I in my simple way am thinking that the two are "linked", though not directly physically, and He1 with their much more detailed information know this. Maybe more geologically knowledgeable type K Oz (where are you?) and Josh could comment.

Someone was mentioning about other plays in the locality. This was published around 15 months ago indicating other areas they were interested in

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52056454204/in/dateposted-public/

and this

continued/...

Continued/...

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52842538902/in/dateposted-public/

is an image of where He1 have conducted ERT surveys, the most notable one south of Tai, but never a peep out of them on what they have found.

The area of the ERT survey S of Tai is full of leads and plays, but as I say never a peep, and when it came to the results of the MSS survey that area was blanked out, although of course anyone can get an MSS survey if they pay. But that area is adjacent to what is know as the Rock of Hades, a hot spring, with He gas in it at 4.2%.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52710531698/in/dateposted-public/

the area may also have very similar styles of traps and seals to those at Tai. And it is noticeable that when they gave up some licences, the line of the licences retained followed exactly the line of the fault forming the main enclosure there.

I guess the point I'm making is that there is so much to go at here.

We are in 1859, Tai is Titusville, Tz is Saudi Arabia, and Saint Lorna is J D Rockefeller.

Hang onto you hats!

Nobles rig is still likely in the UK, Chesterfield skies were cloudy on the last Sentinel pass so I couldn't see if it was still there.

Our rig was in Tanzania at least 4 days ago, and is now around 100 times closer to our pad than Nobles rig is to their as yet nonexistent pad.

I doubt that there's any bookies taking bets on who drills first.

And the Predator is bright yellow albeit with a dark mast, it should show up on Sentinel on a clear day, when it arrives.

No pretty pictures today, but solid legal documents.

And I can't stop laughing...

Maybe I'm behind the curve a little, too much looking at those satellite pictures, and possibly this is known or guessed already.

But the Predator which we have bought is THE Predator which was owned by Hotspur Geothermal, and which fell through last November due to a legal dispute. We bought it on 11th July, and a legal charge over the rig in favour of Lord Percy was satisfied by Hotspur on 12th July.

I just never realised before now that it was the same rig we spent all last summer evaluating and repairing.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53043466456/in/dateposted-public/

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53043642854/in/dateposted-public/

"The Chase is On - A Lorna B Production" - coming to this bb...soon...

Just a quickie on the location of the TNR Base, and the relationship between it and seismic and ERT lines.

As we saw yesterday this is the base in relation to the Tai-3 pad, and the boundaries of the base look very squarish and are almost exactly the same size as the area cleared for the Tai-3 pad.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53039307923/in/dateposted-public/

This is the Top Karoo target taken from the CPR

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52925327666/in/dateposted-public/

Tai-3 is marked.

And this is an overlay showing the TNR base and the extent of Tai and the Top Karoo

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53041316041/in/dateposted-public/

The TNR base lies over the highest part of the Top Karoo, where presumably theoretically the most helium will accumulate.

And this is the TNR base in relationship to the Top Karoo, seismic and ERT lines. Just like Tai-3 the base lies over seismic and ERT lines.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53041495884/in/dateposted-public/

What if the TNR base was only temporary, and that after all the earthworks and pad building it were converted into a pad itself? Maybe it is close. It is the same dimensions as the Tai-3 pad, and in fact in the event of discovery is better placed to tap into the highest part of the Top Karoo.

Are we actually seeing two giant pads being constructed each within a couple of hundred metres of each other?

Wood and Trees springs to mind.

Not definitive but lets see what happens.

And on the shallow drilling there is now a race on between erstwhile partners to flow the first helium? Maybe the He1 board are furious with Noble - ah yes, I can hear it from here (possibly a whisper somewhere), so the race is on to flow the first helium. And DM reckons he hit it at 70 metres at Tai-1, very shallow that, 2.2% and all. The details are somewhere. And DM did #discovery, a long time ago, before deleting 30 minutes later...

TL2482,

Tai-4 was meant to be here

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52692645069/in/dateposted-public/

which is around 500m east of Tai-1, and again on an ERT line and confluence of seismic lines, as Tai-3.

(The image above I created in February so Tai-3 is actually around 100 metres west of where shown on this)

The Tai-4 location was taken from here with is part of the presentation which you were referring to, I think.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52616722032/in/dateposted-public/

I've recently looked to see if any activity, but as I missed the TNR Base until today, that is not to say nothing is happening, but as yet there is no pad or access road.

Well today was a real treat!

Images showing the ground truth at Tai-3 (or at least nearby) and hints of big prospects to come. And by big prospects, I mean BIG PROSPECTS. Almost too big to contemplate.

Some puzzles solved, but maybe some more tantalizingly created.

And I had a little help, a few hints, from a correspondent of mine, who shall remain nameless, but he knows who he is.

So lets start with pad sizes.

This is DM's Tai-1 pad via GE and Maxar, already posted quite some time ago.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51897747754/in/dateposted-public/

It measures around 40M x 70M at its maximum extent.

This is the area cleared for the LB Tai-3 pad

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53036147922/in/dateposted-public/

this measures around 130M x 130M.

That sounds big, but it is actually a huge difference, 16,900 sq m vs 2,800 sq m. Why?

Okay, were rolling...

Now He1 posted some ground truth this morning.

This was the TNR Camp

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53038822556/in/dateposted-public/

Some people, including myself took this to be the Tai-3 pad - but my correspondent hinted that this was a separate place, distinct from the pad. Question was where was it?

Well sometime ago someone pointed out an area of disturbance, south of the intended Tai-3 pad, I dismissed it as slightly unusual agricultural activity, but combined with information from my correspondent I think I've pinpointed it.

This was that area in early April 2023

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53039010819/in/dateposted-public/

This the same area in early June 2023, just as pad construction started

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53039011004/in/dateposted-public/

This area was cleared as early as the beginning of May 2023, so whilst we've all been clinging on by our fingernails Tai-3 pad construction effectively started in early May 2023 - so I think Saint Lorna knew then that she would be able to drill in Q3 for sure, over two months ago, although pad construction only began once Noble secured funding - coincidence?

This is how I think the TNR Base relates to the Tai-3 pad, and how this mornings photograph relates

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53039307923/in/dateposted-public/

What does this mean? Well I've been wondering where all the material has come from to build the roadway - it is here. With hindsight it is obvious because the laying of the roadway started around here. TNR have gouged out a huge area for material in order to build Tai-3. This is on a whole new scale compared with Tai-1/2.

This is the area gouged out by TNR -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53038841156/in/dateposted-public/

It is around 600M x 300M, enormous earthworks.

What are they up to?

A massive pad, 6 x bigger than Tai-1, buying their own rig, and huge earthworks to support the whole operation.

And we haven't even seen the pad yet!

SM, but much of the support stuff is likely to be housed at Camp Rukwa 14km East of Tai. This is an already established base.

The big pad maybe for something else...

It is huge, Sentinel shows that.

Question though, why is it so huge?

I hopefully my have time later to try and extract a little more from this image than at first appears, not all may be exactly as it seems. But in a good way, will have to work on it so may not be this evening.

At last!!! Pics on the ground at Tai-3.

Ta, Saint Lorna.

If anyone wonders what this means - it is fill ya boots!