Member Info for skittish

Maybe Noble going for just one well?

Overall positive if they get it away okay, which I think they will.

Rig contract next week, and off we go!

Maybe they never were told who the blind date was going to be with.

A very shy suitor, or someone on a fishing expedition.

Chinese?

"Ffs anyone saying this is a positive RNS is seriously deluded.

Todays RNS could have been released in January 2022"

Have I missed something...?

I'm no expert but look at this, these are Heritage plays, some identical to He1 plays.

https://flic.kr/p/2oymKpj

(I think that is the one) Just because Nobles licence area ends where it does doesn't mean that the string of pearls ends there also, it should if the theory is correct, extend along both BMFs.

Heritage seemed to think it did.

Https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52868098870/in/dateposted-public/

There it is!

Yes, I can't copy an image address now, but I posted one dated 3-5-23 showing Nobles "String of Pearls" leading directly into He1s licence area, and to their stated plays and prospects, particularly along the Eastern coast of Lake Rukwa.

If you scroll through the images, or even my posts you should be able to come across it on or around that date.

KR - I think what Noble are saying in that slide within the RNS is that based upon the report that they have from Oxford Uni 2023, which may be based on their recent seismic and other investigations (they have no doubt cherry picked the best bits, and they have never published the full report) then He and N will have migrated from below into all the reservoirs, in all cases.

How much and in what proportion He/N they don't say.

And of course it could subsequently have escaped - they don't give any estimates on any of these parameters.

I was contrasting their "100% migration" (not via a CPR - they don't have one), with our CPR where it gives a 70% chance of migration into the potential reservoir at Tai.

Change our 70% migration to 100% and that 14% CoS for each potential reservoir would increase significantly - although I don't know how to do the calculation.

Not saying which is right or wrong, just contrasting.

Noble do tend to talk a good talk.

We will soon find out whether they can walk the walk.

RJ - surely the cash burn equation started ticking from early January 2023 (sometime between 4-1-23 and 11-1-23) which is when Noble approached He1 to suggest the rig share, and He1 decided it was likely to go with that option, although it wasn't announced until 23-2-23?

Until that point He1 were trying to go it alone with the rig, but as they knew then what Nobles timetable would be (roughly) and that this rig wouldn't be available for a number of months (5) they would have to factor in that they would spend $1.5M keeping the company running until the rig, and Noble were ready, which would bring them to about ...now.

So the "saving" of a rig share always almost equated to the "cost" of going for this option.

The "saving" argument is also predicated on the view that He1 could go it alone for a single drill, they have wanted to, but would a rig provider sign on that basis ? I have very serious doubts even now.

Hence why we have waited 5 months, and still wait.

And in Nobles latest graphic it says proprietary Oxford University 2023 strudy shows "migration of gas phase He and N (into reservoirs) in all scenarios".

In our CPR it gives a 70% chance of migration in each reservoir.

So if it is 100% and also gas phase that could alter the calculations ie the 14% considerably. you never know we may have access to the study.

"migration of gas phase He and N (into reservoirs) in all scenarios"

Unfortunately it isn't just a few extra mil to drill in the lake.

In 2014 Heritage estimated that the per well cost of drilling in the shallow part of the lake was $85M.

In the deeper parts it was no doubt $100M+ per well.

So until the whole concept is proved they're really restricted to that western margin.

They can of course do directional drilling which would bring most of those western targets in range.

But if all three 2023 drills fail then they may have trouble getting people to stump up a load of money again.

I notice that in the graphic I posted earlier the Oxford/Durham group in a 2023 study say the reservoirs would be charged from below "in all circumstances".

This is a much higher chance than given in our recent CPR.

That is the shoreline as it was on 10th July 2013, although I don't think that part of the shoreline has changed much since then, it is the low lying areas where there is a problem.

This

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52932018333/in/dateposted-public/

shows part of the problem Noble has. most of their best prospects are underwater. Along the western side of the lake they only have a narrow margin, maybe 1-2km between the BMF (black line - left) and the shoreline (sandy line -right) in which to drill on land.

On the eastern side in most places they haven't even got a few hundred metres.

He1's licences are much better positioned in that respect.

The latest RNS, 22-5-2023, from Noble gave this diagram -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52920727143/in/dateposted-public/

which appeared to suggest a slightly different location for the Mbelele-1 well, which I have now pasted onto Google Earth, here -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52931838660/in/dateposted-public/

I've named the new location Mbelele-1 A, with the old location Mbelele-1 B. Mbelele-1 A now falls directly on a 3D seismic line and Pegere-1 (the location of which has apparently not yet been precisely determined) is directly north, as indicated in a broker note. The ultimate location of Pegere-1 may be slightly closer to Mbelele-1 A.

This

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52931842485/in/dateposted-public/

also gives a location for Kachinga-1, which is also directly over a 3D seismic line and to be drilled in 2024, presumably if the 2023 campaign has success.

He1 wells and forward base shown for reference.

Wow! Couldn't you sleep.

I'd imagine that if Nobles farm out deal didn't complete then they would swiftly move on to the 2nd place bidder.

I'd put the chances of completing with the "preferred" bidder, whoever that may be, we don't know, nor likely (IMHO) by close Friday did they, at around 50/50. That it is going to the wire suggests that they are not all that closely aligned. But you never know.

And if negotiations are not going entirely to plan do you not think Noble would be saying to the unknown preferred bidder - "you aren't the only game in town, there were multiple bidders who wanted to come in on this, we'll go with the 2nd place bidder if necessary."

Otherwise the alternative would be capitulation.

But tricky to negotiate, when you don't know who you are negotiating with. Maybe the Chinese.

What the 2nd place bidder is offering, we don't know, maybe not enough to fully fund two drills, or wanting a greater share of Rukwa. Maybe Noble in that case would have to redesign their drill if they wanted to intercept both targets with a single drill.

But on 22nd May (just 6 days ago) Noble said this -

"The rig is currently undergoing maintenance and upgrades in Sofori’s yard in Sfax, Tunisia, in preparation for

mobilisation to Tanzania from mid-June."

That doesn't sound like a rig that is about to move anywhere fast, and mid June is 3 weeks away. Note it doesn't say mobilization IN mid-June, but FROM mid-June. Bit of deliberately hazy language there.

So I think there would be time to go for the 2nd place bidder, if that became necessary, although Nobles's negotiating position would not be improved (we'll go with the 3rd place bidder, if necessary..."), and still get a spud date for He1 somewhere around a late August/early September date.

Meanwhile chill - this is almost as interesting as the big spat between Schofield and Holly.

But if there was a delay then the share price may suffer, buying opportunity, if you are long term and "believe".

I appreciate what He1 were budgeting for a drill, but in their first 24 months they breezed through around $20 million, doing some seismic and drilling one and a bit wells.

I think from memory those wells with the 'cheap' (but ultimately very expensive mineral rig) were budgeted at a little over $1 million each, for the initial four well programme, so the cost overruns there were obviously very significant.

I expect when we do drill Tai-3 there won't be much change out of $10 million.

The company doesn't appear to expect much else either, as it is clear that apart from maybe drilling the data, they are actually doing nothing else at the moment, no seismic, surveying etc, nothing.

We are all mesmerised by Noble and the rig, but fail to notice that the company is obviously conserving cash by not undertaking any other work at all.

Let's see what next week brings...

I'm not sure when they would raise.

It costs $300K per month just to keep ticking over.

I suspect the total costs for drilling including some contingency will be only a little less than $10M (I know some would disagree) which is why Nobles bidder is paying up to $20M for two.

So by the end of the year He1 will be brassic.

I suspect so long as they flow free helium (likely IMHO at 2%+) it won't matter whether it is commercial or not at this stage, as they will have proved the concept. But I am hoping for a commercial reservoir. And with Noble there are up to 3 chances of proving the concept.

I do think however that they would finish the drill, and maybe allow Noble also to finish before raising.

But an early find, and free helium flowing would be great news as we went deeper.

The recent CPR appears to provide us with a more precise location for Tai-3, rather than the generalised hints provided by Helium One previously.

This provides us with a precise location -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52925327666/in/dateposted-public/

which overlaid onto GE and the ERT survey map provides us with this -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52925328096/in/dateposted-public/

which incorporates my previous location for Tai-3, and the new location Tai-3 D, which is around 75 metres to the west.

The new location is located on a Phase II seismic line, and within around 300 metres of three other seismic lines, two of which are Phase I the other another Phase II.

Crucially it is also located on an ERT survey line which suggests that the location may contain shallow (helium filled?) voids, which suggests to me that He1 may be looking to flow free helium and declare an early discovery within the first few days of drilling.

Certainly this area is now much better investigated and understood than it ever was when Tai-1 was drilled.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52925328326/in/dateposted-public/

and this with the overlays removed, and simple location

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52924740982/in/dateposted-public/

The CPR actually contains a diagram showing that the Lake Beds were drilled out of closure.

Now I understand that!

Makes you wonder what would have happened if they'd waited for that second raise and then done proper seismic, and drilled in the right place with the right rig.

They've got no excuses this time.

I was wondering (and waiting for) when we would get your commentary.

All a bit scientific for me, but many thanks for taking the time.

But they only revealed they didn't know the identity when forced to by the ASX.

They didn't want to tell, and telling crashed their sp by 35%.

They could now say we know, they are bona fide, doing DD etc., but can't yet say.

But they don't.