Member Info for skittish

28-Apr-23 15:30:44 2.965 44,868 Sell* 2.90 3.10 1,330 O
28-Apr-23 12:17:19 2.965 10,000 Sell* 2.90 3.10 296.50 O
28-Apr-23 11:59:52 3.10 150,000 Buy* 2.90 3.10 4,650
27-Apr-23 11:22:52 3.10 100,000 Buy* 2.90 3.10 3,100

Someone possibly accumulating at this level.

I don't see any problems with 1, 2, 3.

After the Q1 cutoff Noble did not RNS till 5-4-23, 1-4 and 2-4 were Saturday and Sunday, so 3 working days.

So that is 3 days plus for an RNS now.

I expect they're quite confident in this process, that it would succeed. If it failed they would no doubt place.

But what follows to actually complete the farm in I don't know. The prospect of running out of money around Q3 will no doubt concentrate minds.

Surely the thing to do would be to sign our contract today and secure the rig, and Noble could come along later when ready.

That way we secure the rig, and can actually get it on the move and meet that Q3 drill date.

If we get a firm date and timetable and contract then I'm sure the share price would be above 10p vs the present 7p. And in a jiffy .

That alone would be an additional £27M in market capitalisation.

Instead we talk about "savings" of a maximum $1M or so, and still we wait - and continue to chase the alleged "savings".

The company has actually spent $1.5M since the fundraise just on "ticking over ".

No savings there.

And not only that the rig could easily go walkabout whilst we wait. Then what?

Yet still we don't contract and just sit on our $12M or so and wait.

There is a reason, you know.

"Simples" - if only it was!

But I don't think that it is all that simples.

Hate to be a party pooper and all that, but...

Firstly the reason there is so much conjecture is that in reality we are told so little - LB said we'd only get news when there was real news, which I agree with, but there is so little real news.

Take Nobles farm in process (I know they are not us but we are now kinda joined at the hip) we really hear so little.

They originally said "non binding bids" in by end Q1 - as if it were almost a completed process by that date - then after that deadline passed it turns out that no one had even had access to the data room! They didn't get that until at the earliest the beginning of this month. I don't know (of course) what was in the data room but I would have thought going through it all, modelling, putting out to consultants, bit of too and fro, formulating a bid, management approval, putting it in, would take any company the full 26 calendar days to get any bid in. Bearing in mind that the first couple of days of April were Sat and Sun, I suspect no one got access to the data til around 5-4. Then 15 working days to do everything. Tall order, when you are seeking to commit probably $10M- $15M+.

And there is no analogy with our fundraise, where DM obviously tried to get it away at 7p, only to be knocked down to 5p, so nearly all the shares could be flipped within a couple of days for an almost guaranteed 20%.

With Noble the bidder is buying a share in the company/licence which won't be flipped in 48 hours, it is possibly a long term commitment. much more difficult to get right.

But what other "surprises" does Noble have in store - they are only committed to completing sometime in Q2 - they vagueness is unnerving. Hence the speculation.

And if Noble's ballpark target figure is around $15M (not unreasonable, I'd say, we had $13.7M at year end for our one well vs their 2) well you could actually buy around 25% of He1 in today's market for that price (and 30% if you disregard our cash), but no one actually does that.

That is the conclusion I draw from the existence of Mr Hale's shares - that despite there never being a TR1 - He1 is aware of who is on the shareholder register, and there are no "secret" large scale holdings on which they are aware.

So I'm not expecting big figures from the Noble farm in, hopefully they'll get at least $10M, enough to drill at least one of their two wells.

If Nobles farm out process isn't completed until the end of Q2 (I hope no longer) then it looks like the rig won't be secured until then. Squeaky bum time.

And I'm sorry I just don't buy the joint rig thing is just to save money - our total cost to drill is $4.26M (per fundraise) - even if we saved 30% - $1.278M by going joint, it costs He1 $300K per month just to sit here and do nothing, whilst the rig is also sitting and doing nothing.

I remain convinced this is a winner though.

End of rant.

Indeed true they have no shares in BMN, but they will still have the CLN's (previous sales were RNS'd I think) , and until the shares get to something like 9.8p then there is no point converting as until then they can't make a profit.

But I think undervaluation of this sort of share goes with the territory, RGO is one I follow, not presently invested, there investments make up much more than the market cap.

Would be nice to get a bit of info from RL, cheer us all up a bit.

Ho hum, they'll be in favour one day....

Difficult to argue with that!

Despite all the hullabaloo over Global Warming much of the Net Zero type investment market, where Prim appears to have positioned itself, is very much out of favour at the moment.

One that caught my eye this morning is I (x) Net Zero IX. up today after the CEO increased his holding from 3% to 11% yesterday but market cap has declined from £62M at IPO 12 months ago to £8M today. Haven't researched but it appears typical of many alternative energy type outfits where valuations have been hammered recently.

I think the "great hope" now lies with many of the investments made previously, such as Fresho and We Shop which may provide something of a return within perhaps a reasonable 12 month timescale.

Part of the problem is the investments such as BMN are effectively underwater and can't be sold at present to provide new capital.

New capital when the Net Zero type outfit valuations are really low could provide a bit of boost here, if we get a windfall payment from one of the other investees.

Well we seem to be approaching, yet again, RL's buying zone, so maybe we'll see some activity there if we dip much lower.

Hope springs eternal.

Found him now! Yes Cornish Metals Inc CUSN on here.

Looks like the company RNS'd that he had sold on 3-3-22 but the sale actually took place in December 2021, simply saying he no longer had a notifiable interest. No indication of when he bought.

Shares in issue at that time were around 284M, so 3% of that would be 8.52M. Some interesting chunky sells in early December 2021 when the price spiked to 27p could be him. Say he got an average of 25p, with the minimum 3% would have netted around £2.13M.

If he had a slightly larger holding, then ignoring tax, the £3M would fit.

No buying RNS but from IPO in February 2021 to October 2021 the shares were variously around 10p to 15p, so with a bit of luck he doubled his money, maybe even slightly better, over 6 months or so.

The CUSN price is now back down to 14p, so he timed matters well.

He could have accumulated here over time, or immediately following the December fundraise. Hadn't noticed his name earlier than today.

Let us hope he is equally as fortunate here!

At least he doesn't have to deal with those pesky TR1's.

An enigmatic investor - how exciting!

Url's - autocorrect, tut.

Any links/unless re corniche metals, he seems a bit of a dark horse?

This is the latest list as disclosed on the rejazzed He1 website

"As at 31 December 2022, Helium One Global Ltd had 820,279,002 shares in issue.

Shares in issue but not in public hands: 1.9%

Number % of shares
Hargreaves Lansdown, stockbrokers (EO) 188,680,805 23.01
Interactive Investor (EO) 81,970,577 10.00
Oberon Investments 63,196,823 7.71
Liam Hale 58,000,000 7.07
HSDL, stockbrokers (EO) 46,206,115 5.64
AJ Bell, stockbrokers (EO) 31,460,341 3.84"

This is my screenshot taken on 3-8-2021, showing holdings at 28-6-2021.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52847477092/in/dateposted-public/

Oberon are up from 3.35% to 7.71%, more than doubling, single client or several?

Herbert and Bolitho are out presumably going under 3% having not participated in the latest fundraising.

Various brokers (the usual suspects) moved around a bit, that will be all of "us".

Liam Hale storming out of nowhere straight into 4th place. So he was somewhere between 0% and 2.99% as at 28-6-2021, I think probably closer to the 0 than 2.99.

The significant event between those dates of course was the 200M+ share issue in December 2022. Whilst he could have accumulated over time 82M volume on the day of the fundraising, and high volume in the days that followed could have allowed him to acquire a significant number of shares.

So he is most definitely "new", at least within the 18 months between 28-6-21 and 31-12-22. Quick Google search reveals no obvious suspects. That in itself is somewhat interesting as people with £3M to chuck around here and there usually leave some trace or wake in their various dealings. Of course no TR1 to pin him down on anything. The benefits of a BVI domicile.

Well if they announced that they were presenting 3 months ago, and this was written then, those replies are from DM, who was drilling, if you remember Q2 2022, Q3 2022, Q4 2022, and Q1 2023, and they predate any agreement with Noble on rig sharing, which surely complicates matters, rather than simplifying them.

Still think people are way optimistic on timescales, as has been proved repeatedly to be the case previously.

Holding my breath here, but I may expire before the rig RNS arrives...

Hang on, hang on...before we all get carried away with whoopi doo type excess, DM was going 8,000 miles to South Africa and doing 121 Mining events when there was no real news to report for months (even 6 months) either side of the presentation.

LB is just taking a walk around the corner to do hers.

So a presentation at 121 is no guarantee of anything.

(I can tell this post ain't going to get many likes)

Now I don't know when the rig announcement may come, but if you drill down into the 121 blurb, you get this, presumably in response to Q's submitted by 121 to LB, and replies from the goddess herself...

"What are your key goals in 3 months, 6 months, 12 months?

3 Months:
Commence mobilisation of drilling rig to Rukwa project

6 Months:
Ongoing drilling of priority targets

12 Months:
Submission of mining licence application for fast track production and ongoing exploration to grow globally strategic resource base"

So take start time from even todays date, let alone presentation date we have -

July 2023 - Commence mobilization

October 2023 - Ongoing drilling

If from the presentation date then you can put those dates back by a month to August to commence mobilization, November for ongoing drilling. So as at today she is expecting that drill bit to be turning on Tai-3 in 6 months time, and that on a drill which most on here expect to last 2-3 weeks, so work out the spud date.

That don't sound like rig contract next week type of stuff to me. That isn't me saying that, it is presumably replies from LB herself to Q's from 121.

Of more interest is this, which accords with the newly jazzed He1 website

Major shareholders:
Oberon Investments – 7.7%
Liam Hale – 7%

Oberon appear to be a small boutique operation, revenue last year £6.7M, who is Liam Hale? PI or "sophisticated investor" type?

We don't get TR1's, and likely never will (BVI etc) , but at 7% he has a cool £3M in He1. Not noticed him before.

But generally (geologically) speaking me thinks that He1 have a much better idea of what they are doing than they let on, we just get the scraps.

All slightly tongue in cheek, no offence meant to LB, AIMHO, DYOR etc etc

I do have some sympathy with Aligator and his general views that there is risk here.

He highlights a specific risk in Sudan. Personally I don't think that risk is significant vis a vis He1 and the rig; it is a local conflict and Western Navies are very active in the Med and Gulf, with two US Carrier Battle Groups always within easy range.

If Aligator was really trying to get people worried he might have highlighted the presence of the Russian Wagner mercenary group in Africa. Yes, they are involved in Sudan. But they are also involved in Mozambique and DRC, both of which have borders only a few hundred km from Rukwa. But oil, diamonds and gold is more their thing, especially the stuff which is easily transportable.

So there are risks here, but Tz is one of the most politically stable countries in Africa, the only one without a coup or revolution post independence and also run by a somewhat apparently enlightened and underrated leader.

Personally I still think the biggest risk is the rig, and the long winded attempt to secure it.

Noble bids in tomorrow, so we may move forward a couple of cm then. They are very vague, even now, despite all the rumpus that they are creating, as to when the process will be completed - "Q2" is the best we get out of them - unnervingly vague, I'd say.

People criticise DM for blowing the gaff on the Exalo rig, but hasn't exactly the same happened here? There won't be anyone this side of Calcutta that doesn't know that there is an "available" rig undergoing maintenance in Tunisia.

Anyway I remain hopeful we will get there, although I think if we get a spud in Q3 it will be a minor miracle and will be a testament to the abilities of management if we do - and I'm not being sarcastic. LB did say a while ago that "a lot of things have to go right" to achieve that Q3 date.

But if aligator did get in at 5.4p (and I'm not saying he didn't) then that is surely a testament to his risk management skills, as that is just about the lowest price you could have got this side of the IPO.

But for the moment this remains clearly a traders share, buffeted about by the winds of fortune.

I long for the time when that will cease, but maybe we still have a while to wait as yet.

ALTE half year report released today.

Nothing really newsworthy, except directors are "encouraged" by the potential opportunities.

Bearing in mind the recent market turmoil (IMHO) there should be some offerings available at much lower prices than say 12 months ago.

Maybe playing something of a waiting game, hopefully.

Yes, this is crucial.

Not only does the NHE farmout give them funds, allowing them and ourselves to contract the rig, and then provide a definitive work/drill timeline, it also enables a value (aside from via the stockmarket) be placed on the Rukwa assets.

I'm not expecting big figures but completion of the farmout enables a cascade of positive newsflow to take place, from the end of Q2 running all the way into 2024.

But drilling Tai-1/1A took two months - 14-6-21 to 11-8-22.

Admittedly it was the wrong rig and the drill broke along the way, but they didn't even reach TD, only around 1184M from memory.

10 days seems super fast, this is 'our' only shot, you think they'd risk all with a blitzkrieg style drilling operation?

I'm expecting 30 days to TD with lots of care and caution along the way.

How did you know!?!?!

Bids in by 26-4-23, so I would imagine some will arrive at the last minute, or close to.

Noble will RNS their latest quarter results by the end of April in any event, so more bang bang bang news.

I imagine much DD has been carried out already, otherwise why have a short list?

How long to approve the winning bid? Big question. Depending on parameters, perhaps 2 to 4 weeks.

Then what? How do they "farm in" and avoid delays with the Tz authorities? They will already have worked it out of course, perhaps a stake directly in Noble which wouldn't lead to any alterations within Tz itself.

Do they have enough headroom sharewise, (difficult to research atm as on hols, no where near Tz though) or would they have to call a GM? Noble has said "farm out" to be completed in Q2, so they have a bit of wriggle room yet.

Then rig contract, which I still think is biggest present risk (hopefully won't go walkabout) and which is why IMHO we remain price wise below where we were after the previous loi.

But once that drill bit starts turning I think news will come thick and fast and well before TD.

I think judging from the spot He1 apppear to have chosen for drilling then they would hope to flow free He to surface within the first 100M. Whether they declare a discovery at that point I don't know. Tai-3 appears designed to principally target the Karoo, but I think on the way down they have around 4 major targets.

Here's to an interesting summer. Clink.

All IMHO, DYOR etc etc

But surely securing the rig, ie a contract is more important than saving a couple of $M, when we have $12M in the bank at present.

And, as some have suggested (erroneously IMHO) that Noble could come on board later, then savings could still be achieved.

Yet still we wait.

The Noble presentation is interesting.

The first stage of the farmout process appears to have been just to get onto the 'approved' shortlist, and those approved then get access to the data room.

Prior to the 1st stage closing Noble do not appear to have mentioned that no one yet had access to the data room. And you can't bid without that!

So closing bids by 26-4-23.

Then Noble have to choose.

And I accept what LB says about the theoretical ability to go it alone if we choose, but we have been cashed up now for 5 months, money in the bank, target chosen 12 months ago, yet still we wait, the best we can do is a joint loi?

Why?