Member Info for skittish

Deep100 - hope is irrelevant.

Just think pure cold logic.

Money is everything, in this instance.

I am a long term holder, although I sometimes wish I had been a pre spud chancer.

I am also a "believer", whilst acknowledging there is significant risk.

I also don't believe that much has changed since DM went and we got Saint Lorna as CEO.

Perhaps his cards were marked after he got the drill location wrong (still can't work that one out), and to boot, chose the wrong rig.

LB faces all the same issues he did, but may well pull it off with the "Tanzanian Buyers Club" - a DM idea, or more precisely Noble's idea, in fact. They, Noble, also face the same issues.

So moderately optimistic, but we shall see how much Noble have to give up, possibly quite a bit, and then we may have a new presently unknown partner putting in their own ideas into the mix - that could make events interesting. No doubt Noble will be anxious to get them to sign up to the present plan. I guess it depends on how deep (or otherwise) their pockets are.

PS. No offence intended to LB, but some seem to think she can wave a magic wand and all will be well, whereas the reality on the ground is much the same.

No pics yet of LB at Tai? Missed photo op there?

Wow! - a 15% rise and there is a scrap already.

It don't take much.

Anyway my overall views haven't changed, but it is noticeable that there is a little friction between the new pre spud chancers and the long termers. Not that there is anything wrong with either approach, in fact the former thus far have been very much more successful with this share than the latteR.

Although He1 and Noble will drill their wells separately, under separate contracts, using the same rig, in the same area with the same crew, for the same resource, I think the market will very much regard these as related drills, thus success for one would be a something of a success for the other.

Each targets different plays, but each have acreage containing both types of play.

Only if all 3 wells fail, would the market regard the whole project as a failure, IMHO.

Then of course there would have been 5 failed wells, and no successes and the whole project would have to go back to the drawing board.

We don't know where Noble are to drill their two wells, news is due this month. They did say rig selection (not contract) was imminent, but that was on 2-2-23, we are a month on and no news as yet. I wonder why?

Anyway we know where He1 are likely to drill and I've updated the 20-2-2023 satellite image to include the Tai-4 location.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52728007185/in/dateposted-public/

As I've said previously I'll wait for the news as it will come in due course, but not quite as soon as some would hope, I think.

True - I missed that.

He was in South Africa in February.

Thanks to Dai on doing the spade work on JW's presence in Tanzania.

I wonder if there will be a joint photo op with LB at Tai?

Just read the posts and links from earlier today.

I thought people had missed it.

I'm skeptical of huge news soon, Noble are presently effectively skint.

Early to mid Q2 things could start to get interesting.

It would appear both LB and Justyn Wood of Noble are both in Tanzania at present.

Interesting, but not expecting fireworks just yet, more getting to know you...

The point about the licences is interesting.

Yes, they have given up part of the southern fringe of the licence area.

This is as it was originally

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51885507893/in/dateposted-public/

This is as it is now

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52625268129/in/dateposted/

The southern side of the licence area (the straight lines on the map) now almost exactly match the line of the main fault at Namtoo which trends SE to NW.

The area to the NE of the fault, and which has been subject to the ERT survey (blue lines) is within our licence area, the area to the SW is no longer within our licence area.

The area to the SW is actually that which forms Noble Area 6 with the Rock of Hades Spring with its free helium gas.

But taking an analogy with Tai, this area to the SW, Noble Area 6, is where the gas is escaping to the atmosphere, exactly like the area to the SW of the Tai fault where there are the atmospheric helium signatures from the MSS survey.

It is the area to the NE of the fault at Tai where the gas will be trapped, by the layer of clay dipping to the NE above the Karoo (and other rock layers), and by the 3 way fault enclosure trapping it on the other 3 sides.

He1 have retained the area to the NE of the Namtoo fault, and no doubt hope for similar enclosures there. The rock presumably would dip in the same direction.

Of course only they (He1) have the seismic for the Namtoo area, and the missing MSS survey data, which (if I'm correct) would show a strong signature to the SW of the fault commensurate with the Rock of Hades area, but little or no signature NE of the fault, because the gas there would still be trapped underground.

Just as we see (hopefully) at Tai.

That they have retained the licence areas in exactly the same line as the fault suggests that they have some degree of confidence that is the case.

Which indicates why Tai is so important, as a find there may open up the prospects for similar or larger finds elsewhere.

Yep, I think the total number of unique images is around 150 now.

Just puzzled they haven't said more about Area 6 as it looks good, is bigger than Tai and they are clearly interested in it.

Link to the original James 1956 report

http://resources.bgs.ac.uk/sadcreports/tanzania1956gsrecordspart2.pdf

I can tell you are all bored.

Whilst we are waiting for rig news (and I still think it will be a while yet) I thought I'd jazz things up a bit whilst pondering a few issues which have puzzled me for a while.

But first this is the Tai area a few days ago, 20-2-2023 -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52710086979/in/dateposted/

and with my annotations

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52710488058/in/photostream/

I think the clearance of the area around where the pad is likely to be placed is simply normal crop rotation/harvesting, but I'll keep an eye for other activity.

Now that you are all interested what follows is all a bit speculative, (DYOR, AIMHO etc., etc.) but here goes anyway...

Noble in their 2022 prospectus p59 referred to areas which held hot springs some of which were a source of free surface helium, they provided a map, here

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52710490753/in/dateposted/

Now one area, 6, is close to He1's licences, but for some reason has never (at least not to my knowledge) been mentioned by He1 specifically, but surface samples have been taken containing free 4.2% helium, confirmed here, p60 of said prospectus

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52710531698/in/dateposted/

Now the map provided by Noble is very large scale but it is possible to overlay it on Google Earth, and this is what you get -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52710548223/in/dateposted/

Being a large scale map poses problems, but I would think this is fairly accurate. Itumbula lines up fairly well, so Area 6 should also be fairly accurate.

Zooming in much closer Area 5, Itumbula is on the right, Area 6 known as Rock of Hades, is on the left.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52710328504/in/dateposted/

So Area 6 is just to the south of where He1 has done extensive seismic work. Tai-1 and the location of the intended Tai-3 can be seen to the north.

The blue lines on the map represent where He1 conducted the ERT survey which would show the location of shallow voids which may contain liquid or gas. ERT has been conducted around Tai and the intended location of Tai-3 is on an ERT line.

But the most extensive ERT surveying has been conducted just to the north of Nobles Area 6, Rock of Hades, where free flowing helium samples have been recovered, but no mention of this from HE1!

What's more this area has similarities to Tai, but is much larger. There is a main fault running SE to NW, just like Tai, from which a number of other faults emanate. Combine that with the Tai MSS survey and there are more similarities as helium is emitted from the area to the SW of the main fault at Tai, and at the Rock of Hades, somewhere to the SW of that southern ERT area, which is near a place called Namtoo, there is again free flowing surface helium - according to Nobles prospectus.

cont/-

Cont/-...

So I thought it would be interesting to compare the MSS results at Tai with those at the southern ERT area at Namtoo.

Now the AGM presentation contains none of the MSS results, which is a pity as it was the MSS which first gave us the actual location of Tai-1, and which He1 were so excited about in January 2022.

But LB's presentation on 26-11-2022 (The One2One forum) did give us some MSS data showing Tai, and Itumbula, and an area to the north of Tai as having strong surface He signatures.

But the slide showing the MSS data for 26-11-2022 shows that the Namtoo area has been completely blanked out by an overlay showing "Helium end member spectra", which may mean something to some but means nothing at all to me, and appears completely superfluous.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52642513469/in/dateposted/

And this is how it translates on GE with the area of the ERT survey, which He1 seems really interested in as it is even more extensive than at Tai, with the MSS results in the area surveyed by ERT completely blanked out by the "Helium end member spectra" chart.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52710067806/in/dateposted/

Convenient that, if you wanted to hide a really strong (or possibly weak) MSS result.

To me this seems really odd - I'm not into conspiracy theories (honest) - but why "hide" those MSS results, when carrying out extensive surveying to find shallow voids within that area?

And this is a close up of the ERT survey lines

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52702307812/in/dateposted/

which shows the area covered with brine evaporation ponds, more extensive that at either Tai-1 (brine evaporation at the lake), or at Itumbula, 10% helium.

Whoever did the mid 1980's surveying did a good job, as the locals now appear to use the survey lines as roads.

This is the link to the original James' report from the 1950's in which he notes that the surface helium springs are associated with hot springs, brine deposits and salt workings. Of course the hot springs are associated with volcanic activity, which is what releases the helium from the underlying granite in the first place.

And the spring at the Rock of Hades is the hottest of all the helium springs James surveyed, at a toasty 65 degrees.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52709578392/in/photostream/

And if people think I'm a bit of a party pooper, not expecting rig news until the end of April/beginning of May, I'll stick my neck out and make another prediction.

When He1 finally gets round to drilling Tai-3 I expect it will take around 5 weeks to get to target depth (it took 2 months at Tai-1 and they didn't even get to TD), but I think they will flow free gas to the surface and declare a discovery within the first 10 days.

Then everyone will have to hang onto their hats.

Then if only one is signing how do we get the economies of scale, able to offer 3 drills instead of only one?

And what is then the point of the signed agreement with Noble if we can just go it alone anyway?

Surely we can then only for certain offer one drill to the rig company, which appears to have been part of the problem all along.

And Nobles LOI won't be worth the paper it's written upon.

The whole point of the Noble agreement is we can go to the rig company and say, jointly we can do a deal for 3 wells not just one.

This board has been way to optimistic all along, LB was trying to inject a bit of realism, hence August for spud if all goes well.

I don't see how Noble could execute a rig contract without being cashed up and able to pay.

A bit like buying a house, you need either cash or a mortgage before you can contract.

I don't think a rig provider would entertain them while they are in the midst of raising funds.

He1, IMHO will have to wait for them, hence no spud until August.

Noble have bids in for farmout by end Q1, they will need to assess, contract and then the bidder will presumably have a short time to hand over the cash.

So likely mid to end April at the earliest before they can sign their contract for the rig, and thus same for He1.

LB said two months to mobilize, that would be May, June.

What about July, if we're not drilling until August?

Well, maybe it will be mid May before Noble could contract , June, July to mobilize, we then spud August, if we go first.

LB also said a lot had to go right for even the August spud date.

Of course I could be surprised.

All IMHO, DYOR etc., etc...

6M A$...

Coco, they have obviously failed miserably to manage your expectations....

Well, I agree with everybody, because you can call this a one shot company if you like.

But on the other hand, and equally valid, it isn't one shot.

Certainly He1 have enough money for just one shot - Tai-3 - and very little else. And if they miss how easy would it be to raise another £10M - almost impossible I would have thought.

But, and it is a big but (and I've said this before) if Tai-3 is your best target by far - in terms of research, seismic, computer modelling and all the rest of the jazz, and you've already thrown lots of money at it, and it turns up a duster - then you have really messed up on everything, and then drilling a dozen holes elsewhere using a scatter gun approach isn't going to get you anywhere.

Tai-3 is the best target so failure there means they need to start all over again and rethink their approach from scratch. So that makes it one shot.

But at the same time it might not be.

Mid- August target spud date? 2023, that is. They are all cashed up and now waiting. The rains end in May, but they're not planning to start to mobilise until mid June at the earliest, and then take 8 weeks. LB says no "unrealistic" timescales, and Q3 is making "a lot of assumptions".

They say a rig share is a possibility, if it suits, a "small consortium". IS emphasised potential cost savings. Of two maybe? Good chance that is Noble, and they won't have any cash until the beginning of Q2.

Hence no contract (IMHO) til mid April when Noble are able to stump up their share.

Whilst in such a scenario drilling would be separate there would be then three related drills, targeting two types of play, intra basin (He1), basin margin (Noble). Both outfits have licences covering both. So He1 isn't then a one shot pony because even if Tai-3 were a duster then provided Noble get a find in the basin margin - they claim their directors have a a 100% success rate for oil and gas - then He1 could rise from the ashes, and say the helium is in the basin margin, give us the money and we'll drill there, because we know it is there.

Only if all three drills fail would it be a busted flush.

The six months to spud (IMHO) is because they are waiting on Noble raising, before getting a rig, three well programme, better team, better rig, better chance of a decent result.

But they have analysed Tai-3 to death if you look at this you will see that the proposed location of Tai-3 is really interesting.

flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52692645069/in/dateposted/

Not only does it sit at the confluence of two seismic lines, and around 150 metres from third, it also sits on an ERT survey line. LB says they did the ERT survey due to to the 70 metre helium show at Tai-1. Subsequent to that drill an ERT line was passed over Tai-1, presumably as a control, so drilling Tai-3 on an ERT line suggests to me that they expect a shallow helium find at Tai-3 also. Otherwise why bother?

So for Tai-3 they appear to have 4 targets to go at.

Dai, you also need to bear in mind that He1 are not subject to UK law, the company is registered in BVI and is subject to their legal system when it comes to issuing shares.

In any event they have no longer have authority to issue new shares, presumably not even for bonuses, payments etc.

That may concentrate a few minds.

Part of the gravy train has been switched off.

Dai, that is what DM said on 11-1-23, regarding the Tanzanian Buyers Club, he didn't name Noble, as I recollect, but they're the obvious candidate.

And on 2-2-23 Noble said they were considering a rig share.

So join the dots and you get a giraffe!

Many thanks for your efforts, I know from experience AGM's are not always rewarding.

That they didn't engage is 'disappointing, but let's see where we go from here.

As always not expecting news soon, anything by end Q1 will be a bonus.

Watching Noble closely.