Member Info for skittish

It is also worth noting that if the value of WeShop has increased by almost 100% in the last few months (it was a single trade) that would almost erase the loss on RMM even if the shares were to be totally written off.

There was something from FIRE recently which indicates WeShop were growing at a phenomenal rate, although FIRE'S share price is still in the doldrums, not apparently reflecting such a wonderful investment.

Someone somewhere has got it wrong!

Single trade of 350 shares on WeShop @ 595p on 23-3-2023.

Those shares in 2022 were trading at around 350p.

Prim owns 150,199 shares, which on the basis of the latest trade are worth £893,684.

I don't know whether you are up to date or not, but as it looks like we will share the same rig, in the same basin, with the same crew, same transport, same support services and are looking for the same element in the same rock formations, and both will drill back to back in Q3 2023 I'd say that what Noble do and where they do it is fairly important as regards He1.

A discovery by one will be regarded by the market as a discovery by the other.

IMHO, DYOR etc etc...

In an earlier post I indicated my assessment of where Noble was going to drill their first two wells - but something wasn't quite right as the details of the locations didn't quite accord with the written information Noble was giving out.

After looking more closely at the images they have produced, I think that I have managed to reconcile the discrepancies and have come up with adjusted locations.

Noble initially produced this map of their licences and the Mbelele and Pegere prospects -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52770309493/in/dateposted-public/

Mbelele and Pegere are shown as two quite distinct locations. Overlaying onto Google Earth you get this -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52770109734/in/dateposted-public/

Mbelele is mostly on land, Pegere under the lake, the closest land being around 1km from Pegere boundary.

But Noble also produced this -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52769430627/in/dateposted-public/

showing Mbelele-1 and Pegere both on land and drilled vertically. I'd assumed Pegere-1 would be drilled at an angle or use directional drilling but that graphic suggested not. At the base of the Pegere well is a molar shaped outcrop of basement rock. The clue to what is going on is that this molar shaped rock also appears on the Galula seismic, albeit slightly disguised by circles representing "He in soil above background" here -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52781660616/in/dateposted-public/

An area slightly to the NW of the "molar" is the target area for the base of the Pegere-1 drill near where the Galula formation meets the basement rock and Noble believes gas will be trapped.

Overlay the Galula seismic over GE and you get this

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52779956033/in/dateposted-public/

which now shows the location of the Pegere-1 well, do the same with the top Lake Beds and place Mbelele -1 at the highest point of the Lake Beds, next to the basement and the highest soil helium shows, and that gives you that well location. The two locations coincidentally are almost exactly 2km apart.

Take away the overlays and you now have the intended location of both wells, at least to within a few tens of metres.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52779418916/in/dateposted-public/

The first thing that stands out is that both wells, and where they end up at TD are on land. The Pegere prospect is not within the lake at all.

Also in keeping with Nobles low cost, low risk, simple approach Mebele-1 will be drilled within 100 metres of an existing highway, next to the settlement of Zimba.

A prettier view -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52780181150/in/dateposted-public/

The only niggling aspect is both wells have a TD of 800M, but Pegere looks much deeper...

I see people getting fractious over the rig... - watch Nobles farm out process, rig soon after that completes, chill til then.

Don't you believe that Noble is unknown.

On my flikr pages the pics of Nobles timetable from last year have over 350 hits, more than any others.

Some recent pages relating to he1 have less than 50.

Maybe a reflection of interest in my flikr pics though...

I too doubt we will ever find out the whole truth over what has gone on over the last 18 months, but interims last year were on 28-3-2022 for the 6 months to 31-12-2021, so we may find out shortly a little more on where the money went towards the end of 2022 - assuming they provide sufficient detail.

And that Predator rig is still available, or so it appears

https://www.hotspurgeothermal.com/drilling/

but you have to wonder why it is still available, and why no one has used it for around 6 years. Cluff's aggrieved ex partners can cause an awful lot of trouble at little expense to themselves if they so wish, what we don't want is to be again put in a position where they can cause trouble to us. Toxic unless the dispute is resolved.

As to Noble they have now announced their drilling plans, with a schematic which looks like this -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52769430627/in/dateposted-public/

2 wells, 2km apart each to 800M, although on the schematic Pegere-1 looks deeper. They appear to have chosen the cheapest, safest and shallowest wells which they can come up with and still hopefully get a result. Mbelele is their only prospect which is mostly on land.

The locations in the schematic look a little off as comparing with Google Earth and the coastline they look just over 7km apart.

A better location (IMHO) would be a little further down the coast placing the well closer to the Pegere prospect, and around 4km from Mbelele.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52769386452/in/dateposted-public/

This would place the Mbelele-1 well at a sweet spot and Pegere-1 just on the coastline just over 1km from the outer edge of the prospect.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52770847435/in/dateposted-public/

The coastline as shown by Noble is a little difficult to reconcile with the coastline on GE, but Lake Rukwa is very shallow, and indeed the coastline has changed dramatically over the last 70 years. I think I have got it correct, and it leads to this - showing that the main fault boundary of Mbelele is also the boundary of the area given over to salt production, which we know is associated with Helium springs.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52770706841/in/dateposted-public/

All those little white dots to the right of the fault are piles of salt, collected when outflows of brine evaporate. The same could be seen at the Tai-1 location.

Interesting to contrast the intended depth of the Noble and intended Tai-3 wells.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52625425418/in/dateposted-public/

Tai-3 is intended to go down to the basement around 1400M+ shown as purple here, whereas Mbelele-1 will go to the base Lake Beds shown red here, and Pegere-1 to the Galula formation, I assume is the blue here.

And this is how the two locations Mbelele and Tai relate to each other.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52771234238/in/dateposted-public/

I do find it odd that people have the idea that all He1 have to do to get their one hole drilled is find a rig and put up a load of cash.

The problem for the last 12 months plus is that this has not been sufficient to get a rig - providers are not interested in a single well.

Hence the Noble deal, and all the baggage that comes with it, is borne of necessity not choice.

But hopefully that will get us the rig, eventually.

So now Noble moves forward....

The first point on the to do list, published on 2-2-23 has been ticked.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52668201801/in/dateposted-public/

As indicated previously this order of activity , since the beginning of February, is now He1's order of activity.

Even the plays chosen (although one was not previously advertised) were fairly obvious and fit in with the close cooperation intended between Noble and He1. That their initial target would be to the west of Lake Rukwa was and just 80km from Tai, suggests that the cooperation is proceeding as expected.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52756774476/in/dateposted-public/

Farm out bids in by 31st March, selection of bidder, if the process is successful, I guess mid to end of April.

Payment maybe towards the end of April/beginning of May.

Then another tick.

After that the third (all important) tick - rig contract with He1 - end April to mid May.

By the time they get to place that fourth tick, hopefully He1 will already have that discovery.

We will have continuous news flow from mid May to mid August, and then hopefully beyond...

Mmm..I'm not sure He1 is so flush with cash that it can afford to do that, whopping wage bill and all.

They've breezed through a lot more than £10M just to get one drill and a bit, over 2 years.

Exalo, autocorrect!

Personally I think that the rig share is a done deal, but not necessarily for the right reasons.

We know He1 have struggled to get a decent rig, first it was the wrong rig, then the US rig, then Predator, then Exploring...

They say they have options over deciding which rig, but on what terms?

It was Noble who suggested a rig share, so presumably they have difficulties too.

The problem to my mind is offering a single drill in the middle of nowhere, few if any operators are interested.

I think the only uncertainty is how much Noble can raise and at what cost, if they succeed in raising sufficient funds for 1/2 wells then I think the rig share deal will go ahead, provided an operator will take on a 2/3 well deal, split between the two.

I think their requirements are very similar.

I think the "footballs" are representation of Helium atoms He and He3/4. But I've "pinched" the graphic from an online paper, by the Durham Group (given credit) but haven't actually got the paper, with the explanations, as it is pay per view.

There are higher flows of He to the SE near Mbeya, but it appears no seals near the faults so the He just flows out to atmosphere, and then to space.

The key thing is around the lake there are faults and seals, which in theory can trap the He allowing it to be mined.

Yes, I did try to correct it in a later post as you can't edit LSE.

Could be rocky on the markets tomorrow, bitcoin rocketing suggests shares could be down.

CS going for a fraction of its Friday close value, I wonder what the banks over here are worth on that news?

Ho hum, think long term...a la Buffett and Co.

The 4th link should be this one,

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52727351468/in/dateposted-public/

apologies

RJ - I don't think it is true that we don't have a clue when the rig contract will land. We do have a clue and lots of them!

DM in his 4-1-23 IV following the loss of the Exalo rig was all systems go, all sorted out soon etc.

By 11-1-23 it was completely different, in that IV DM said must take our time, get it right, lots to do etc, etc - in the meantime it turns out Noble had been in touch.

As I pointed out at the time, if they were to cooperate, which was subsequently announced, Nobles longer timetable was now our timetable. DM's plan is also still LB's plan.

That timetable as previously posted is here.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52668201801/in/dateposted-public/

Noble won't have cash until the farm out process is complete, they've picked a winner and got the cash in, and until they've got cash they cannot contract for the rig alongside us.

So they won't be in a position to contract probably until at least mid April, maybe a bit longer, end April/early May.

Hence spud August 2023.

LB in her latest IV 13-3-23 said that He1 were not committed to sharing with Noble - of course true, but I suspect she is just hedging her bets in case the Noble farm out process is unsuccessful, and they still have insufficient funds at its conclusion. The idea that all the big hitters will be bashing down Nobles door I think does not chime with reality. Especially now that banks are collapsing like dominoes - the Fed is lending more overnight than ever they did at the height of 2008.

The plan is still to go with Noble, if only because both entities have mightily struggled to get a rig acting alone.

End of April/early May rig contract still leave a 3 month mobilization for drilling August 2023, although LB seemed a little uncertain over that in the last IV.

The dovetailing of He1 and Noble is obvious from this map

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52756774476/in/dateposted-public/

showing Nobles eastern most targets around 60-80km from Tai, the easiest and most accessible of their target to drill.

This map shows all the licences and targets and how they relate to each other

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52757225965/in/dateposted-public/

And for those interested in the geology here is a diagram indicating the assumed paths of helium generation and migration, from E S Mulaya PhD

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52757225965/in/dateposted-public/

Tai is located to somewhere around the far left of the diagram, somewhere under the "s" of thermal springs. The diagram starts to the SE runs NE and then bends to the SW across the lake, the line following the bend being across the area marked KSAZ in this diagram, the helium generating area being in the SE corner

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52726464180/in/dateposted-public/

So not expecting news soon but will be on alert from mid April onwards.

All IMHO, DYOR etc.

The directors generally appear very keen on these shares, and over a long period of time.

Very little news around but it would be worth considering following their lead.

I came across this a few days ago on twitter, various US based stocks, all green/eco related and their % down since their highs.

For AE could be some bargains out there somewhere...

% Below High

Li Auto $LI: -49%
Tesla $TSLA: -56%
Fisker $FSR: -75%
NIO $NIO: -85%
Lucid $LCID: -87%
XPeng $XPEV: -88%
Proterra $PTRA: -90%
Rivian $RIVN: -91%
LionElectric $LEV: -93%
Canoo $GOEV: -97%
Lordstown $RIDE: -97%
Faraday $FFIE: -97%
Nikola $NKLA: -98%
Arrival $ARVL: -99%

ITV

Interesting choice of words, the "confident" and "still" are superfluous.

Da_MoLe,

I'd just spend 20 minutes or so just reading this bb and going back a few weeks and you'd get a great idea of what is going on - ignore all the hyperbole and just concentrate on the facts.

For a more indepth view go on the He1 website and look at the latest presentation and the CPR in the Admission Document- it is all there.

Good luck with your Investing!

IG - it is called plate tectonics.

When first theorised over 100 years ago it was called insane, but is now well established science.

There are interesting videos around which show how the continents have moved over the last 500M years, and how they will move over the next 500M.

The Earth only looks as it is now at this point in time.

Astronauts visiting the Moon left plaques showing the continents of Earth so that a visiting civilization a billion years from now could date their landings.