Member Info for skittish

I don't post often these days, as I don't really have anything coherent to say, save that the Kenyan rig situation is somewhat perplexing.

To me this is all a matter of risk - operational risk and geological risk. One we (the company) can control, the other we cannot, just make the best of what we are presented with.

I am surprised that there is so little comment on the Noble situation and fatality.

Noble managed to omit that news entirely from their Twitter feed, focussing instead a few days later on all things going full ahead for drilling in Q3 2023. Indeed He1's share price seems to have been more impacted than that of Noble. I suspect however that they are being unduly optimistic, and the loss of a boat, equipment and a life will have a greater impact longer term than they allow for.

If they or their contractors can be careless in the lake, they can be careless elsewhere, with possibly more serious consequences.

I cannot imagine that this incident would not have an impact on their other activities, and call into question their whole safety culture - I suspect that their whole project will ultimately be delayed and likely drilling postponed until 2024, while a review is carried out.

Whilst He1 and Noble are not rivals I suspect that there is some rivalry there, in getting the first helium discovery at Rukwa.

So far as He1 were concerned, Noble were in the rear view mirror, coming up fast on the inside. They've now spun off the track, and that particular pressure of being overtaken is now off He1.

He1's latest plans were to drill Jan/Feb 2023.

Jan/Feb are the wettest months. He1 previously ruled out drilling in the rainy season, as did Noble.

Suddenly it is okay.

I know there is a drought on and La Nina, but there has the rain came in January last year and is likely to do so this year again.

Again it comes down to risk - He1 took a risk with a mineral drill in 2021, and it wasn't a success. They may have found helium, but couldn't declare a discovery. They appear to have taken a risk with the Kenyan rig, will that have paid off, maybe, maybe not?

Did Noble or their contractors also take a risk? We don't know, no information is provided which in itself is suspicious that things are more, rather than less serious.

The point I'm trying to make is that you can take loads of risks, and if they pay off then the CEO is a genius. But one day it will be a risk too far.

As Josh said, this ain't easy stuff.

Drilling in Jan/Feb 2023 IMHO is an unnecessary risk.

I don't know what any RNS might say, whenever it comes, but Sentinel as of 2nd November 2022 shows no activity at Tai at all, save for normal agriculture.

Drill end Q2 2023, with a decent rig, get that discovery and all will be well.

Thinking out loud....European spot gas prices went negative yesterday (not our domestic prices, of course), maybe there will be some cheap drilling rigs available early next year, if we don't after all take the Predator rig?

Late Q2 will do me!

Can't see what all the fuss is about.

Buy low, sell high.

"would even be so bold"

should of course be

"Would not even be so bold"

T321,

I cannot, and would even be so bold as to even attempt to speak for Rupert, but didn't he attempt to answer generally the concerns of investors in the post of mid September, on another board.

Mid September isn't that long ago.

I too share frustrations, perhaps some investments could have been better timed, and never would I have thought PRIM would drop so low, but the macro economic situation, possibly to get worse, UK political uncertainty, and the international situation, possibly to get a lot worse, Ukraine/Taiwan etc, are weighing on markets. And PRIM is vulnerable to those movements.

I guess it depends on your patience and timeframe, but Rupert's may in both cases, be longer than most investors.

Times are trying, but hope and opportunity spring eternal.

Wasn't Apple almost written off once, and Microsoft binned by many investors, many years ago? That would seem unbelievable nowadays, but it happened.

Interesting article in the Sunday Times today -

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-stock-market-falls-and-recessions-are-good-for-the-young-wxwdsl2fr

behind a paywall, but you get the gist from the headline.

I've been investing in tax efficient type funds recently, and it has improved my investing no end - I haven't made money, but I haven't lost much either, unlike with my individual shares which all look very sickly. PRIM of course fits the mould of a very small fund.

I wouldn't seek to offer investment advice ever, but smallish regular investments in out of favour funds, or even at the more daring end of the investment world, shares like PRIM may offer significant rewards over a 5/10 year timescale.

But I do think Rupert has set out his stall fairly clearly.

Rupert - from around mid September 2022

Well, I have been reading some of your comments with interest.

Clearly with the macro-economic situation and an acute cost of living crises then people are finding times hard. With the disappearance of free money, a consequence of this will be investors having to liquidate positions. This clearly is happening in the small cap sector and Primorus is not immune to this either. What this is doing is creating a large disconnect between mcap's and NAV of companies.

It is up to individuals to decide which companies are better placed to deal with this downturn. I am a firm believer in the ability of investors to buy and sell and markets will find an equilibrium. If you have cash at the moment, then I believe history will be kind to investors as long as they pick the right stocks.

We have spent 2 years restructuring this company into what I believe now is one of the leanest investment companies on AIM. Our cash burn is relatively low, we haven't felt the need to raise any cash and in fact we are one of the few companies still investing- as in the Interpac deal announced this week.

Not all investments will be a success in the short term, but we possibly have a slightly longer time horizon than some investors. It’s as much about getting your timing of selling as buying.

Yes, it was us who sold GGP in the 20's and yes it was the old board who bought GGP. Nobody get every trade correct on timings but over a period and with a correct balance of investments then dividends will pay - and yes, we are one of the few AIM investment companies which is the board chooses and we feel it is the correct decision for PRIM shareholders we can pay dividends/share buybacks.

I notice talk about BBM - well we managed to independently negotiate a good deal to change our investment in MUST to a CLN in BBN. This has given us the ability to convert some at a profit and run the rest at a 10% interest rate. It’s about managing those investments which don't always work with those that are.

We strongly believe in the likes of FRESHO/PAYAPPS which are extremely well-run companies and we believe excellent value. The likes of CPH2 we believe are the future of the transitioning period and we have the firm belief that they will be very successful.

As always, I don't want to comment individually about your posts as everyone is entitled to their view, but clearly there are some very misinformed posters.

The line of communication is always open and please call or email -contact on our website. I’m generally quite friendly and welcome a discussion around our investments good or bad. It’s your company also so if you have a query get in contact rather than incorrectly speculating.

I wish you all well in these difficult times. I hope I have allayed some of your fears. Best Rupert

Hi Dai,

Haven't looked in much recently as I don't think there will be much action short term (could of course be wrong on that though), but will review recent posting activity when I get a chance towards the end of the week.

Must say looking in less on individual shares has recently resulted in a calmer and more financially successful me!

Maybe that is just a reflection on my investing skills, or rather the lack thereof.

Will let you know my thoughts, such as they are, next weekend - although I shouldn't get too excited over the prospect in the interim.

S

Someone possibly spent around £20K buying 800K PRIM shares this morning.

Similar to a purchase which took place in March 2022 at a much higher price?

If so details shortly, or not, as the case may be.

Spot on! I never thought you'd get it so quick.

PS. The injectors were stuffed down Nord Stream 2 just to see what would happen. Oops.

Gentlemen (and Ladies),

IMHO if you want to know the future direction of the He1 share price, I would suggest that instead of looking at Tanzania and Kenya, you should be looking at Zurich or Berlin, or Moscow and Washington.

That is where the near term action is.

Without getting into an argument, the former Polish Defence Minister didn't say the US blew up the pipeline.

He said "Thank you USA"

The Thank You USA was because the US now supplies much of the gas to Europe which it so desperately needs. He was thanking the US for the supplies now that the pipeline has been blown up.

This is the complete thread in which he clearly blames Russia calling it a "special maintenance operation".

https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

Incidentally - Russia still supplies gas to Europe through the pipelines which run across Ukraine! The gas flows, and Ukraine still get transit fees paid to them by Russia. And today Gazprom announced they regarded Ukraine to be in breach of their obligations by "stealing" some of the gas, and threatening to cut off that gas also.

And as to the reason for the "failure" - such pipes have *never* ruptured before let alone in 3 places, with the helpful seismic signature of 200kg of TNT present.

And as to who did it - a bit of a smoking gun - here are two Russian warships directly over the pipelines on 17-6-2022, reported the following day, they both entered Danish territorial waters and then loitered over the pipelines.

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1538270419551145989

Relevance to He1, well possibly world helium market, and the general economic situation likely to get worse rather than better anytime soon. Even He1 can't buck the market.

Indeed true, but I think the reprieve is temporary.

Hi ITV, Dai etc still here, keeping my own counsel at present.

Great explanations re Noble from KO, and previously Josh.

Markets generally, and geo politics worry me at present (not alone in that of course) - Russia is losing badly but could take everyone down with it, and even if it (only) disintegrates into some of its 168 constituent parts it won't be pretty.

The £ crash was a bit predictable, and the current crisis could have been predicted 6 years ago (IMHO), but I suspect it is not over yet (allegedly Abbey National was running out of money over the weekend - shades of the GFC 2008), so concerned about possible implications here, if the markets freeze up, and the BoE only has fairly limited reserves compared to 1991 when Soros & Co managed to break it.

So just sitting tight really.

I should add that NZI is in the process of a RTO, and has been since mid May, but they deal has yet to complete, so no completed investment since it listed.

ALTE website for those who are interested -

https://altearthplc.com/

I'm not sure action is imminent (although it may be, I don't know) but NZI with which Rupert Labrum is also involved (as a major shareholder - 29%) is yet to make any investments, and it is over a year since that listed.

Maybe they are waiting for the prices of investee companies to decline? Presumably the price of anything which generates electricity is high at the moment. This has recently caught my eye, obviously a fairly dynamic market is forming -

https://octopus.energy/press/octopus-energy-backs-mega-solar-farm-in-morocco-to-power-7-million-heat-pumps-with-cheap-green-power/

https://nziplc.com/

Yes, a few more likes now! Maybe a few found it a bit technical, or didn't like the idea that He1 were drilling in a sub optimal area - sub optimal in the opinion of their 'rivals' Noble Helium, that is.

2023 could get quite exciting around Rukwa with two rival teams trying to get that elusive discovery.

Thanks Josh for the explanation, and putting it all into context, makes it so much easier to understand.

Of course they could both be right, and both confirm discoveries, but Noble were definitely skitting at He1.

Over the last few days I've been looking at the latest noble Presentation dated around 8-9-2022.

The link is here -

https://noblehelium.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Noble-Helium-Securing-the-Future-of-Helium-v2.pdf

A few interesting things seem to emerge.

Noble still thinks that He1 were drilling in Q4 2022, obviously this is now overtaken by events. They also appear to have the whole period from December to May ruled out for drilling due to rains, so are proposing to drill 2 wells in Q3 2023.

Of more interest they appear to explain their drilling focus in more detail and whilst doing it have a bit of a skit at Helium One - obviously not intentional! They in fact seem to imply He1 have got it all wrong - the basis of their exploration and geological interpretation, not the practicalities of drilling.

Many of Nobles' directors and advisors seem to have experience in drilling for oil in the East African rift, where they have had some success. This appears to form the basis of their thoughts on drilling for helium in North Rukwa.

This is a rough comparison of the Noble and Helium One licence areas (it is not exact, but the margins line up fairly well).

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52362719417/in/dateposted/

Nobles licence areas are in yellow to the north, with prospects in a lighter colour, Helium Ones licences to the south with leads/prospects in blue. They neatly abut each other in the middle of the map on an W-E line - obviously He1 has now given up much of the parts of their licences which are underwater. Tai and Itumbula are highlighted.

The two areas are quite distinct, with Nobles licences to the north being on the E and W shores of Lake Rukwa and extending some way into it, whereas He1's southern licences are very much within the Rukwa basin itself.

I had myself being skitting at Nobles licences as for the most part they are underwater and would be difficult to drill, the only realistic places to drill being on land, and Nobles eastern licences (those parts above water) being on a precipitous slope.

However this slide appears to explain Nobles reasoning -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52363968479/in/photostream/

They anticipate that the best areas for drilling will be abutting the crystalline basement, on the margins of the lake. The fault line to the northern shore of the lake can be clearly see as it forms the norther shore of the lake, running SE to NW.

The basement to the south also runs SE to NW and can be seen by the line of mountains coming up from the southern margin of the map, and then running up along the W side of Nobles licences.

Cont/...

Noble are saying that from their oil drilling experience, the gas will accumulate against the basement rock where it will be sealed in by that impervious structure, and close to that is the place to drill. They hint that the Mbelele is likely to be one of their first two targets. They suggest that gas coming up in the middle of the basin is quite likely to have escaped as it will not be up against an effective seal and the chances of a successful drill are therefore much reduced.

Noble claim there has been a 100% success rate for oil and gas drilling up against the basement in other parts of the East African Rift.

The implication is that He1 are drilling in the wrong place and should be further to the W up against the basement rock. They have a quick skit saying two dry wells in the middle of Rukwa already, that will be Ivuna-1 and Galula-1 . They were drilled in the 1980's and go on say IBFC drilling has a 30% success rate, hence the two dry wells.

But of course two more wells were drilled in 2021, one was dry, Noble offer no opinion on the other well Tai-1/1A, whether it was dry or wet. And Tai is in a 3 way dip enclosure which presumably would be an answer to their simplistic IBFC graphic.

But their summary seems to be...

BMFC (Noble) 100% success rate, IBFC (He1) 30% success rate.

It maybe they can both be right, but I definitely sense some rivalry here.

Wow...two picks most generous, makes things so much easier...

On the Ukraine front Armenia has today invoked Article 4 of the CIS Treaty (similar to NATO Article 5) with Russia and other Central Asian states, calling upon them to render military assistance to Armenia against the invading Azerbaijani forces.

Will Russia render assistance? Can it render assistance? Is the Russian military in any fit state to render any form of military activity?

Many restive regions will be looking intently to see what happens.

The "collapse" could happen sooner than Ukraine anticipated, if Russia is shown to be a paper tiger.

Maybe oil/gas/drilling prices will fall faster than anticipated also.

Now waiting patiently.

Time for DS and IS to lay some money down.