Member Info for skittish

It wouldn't be the same thread without Mussels winding everyone up - but you have to acknowledge that after the last 12 months activities it is difficult to attract new investors to the share.

After the fundraise it was Go Go Go! The shares responded accordingly in a rising market. Today it is somewhat different and people are less sanguine.

If you believe the evidence, such as it is, therein lies a significant potential opportunity.

But just to respond to a few points - Josh, it could be two wells, that was my thinking up to this week, but the limited cash and very late drill (end September at the earliest) suggests time also will be limited prior to the rains. Whilst I'm sure you can drill to 1200M and test in 3 weeks, for Tai-1/1A it took a week to get to 55M, a month to get to 550M and two months to get to 1120M. They'll have better, more suitable equipment this time but I think they'll take it real slow, as if they foul up at Tai-3 it is effectively game over for most existing investors.

But we shall see.

And DD and Latorre there was a different much more confident mood music last time, a discovery alters everything and opens up a world of opportunity via placings, at many multiples of today, JV's, offtakes etc etc. The entire picture alters with a proven helium reservoir flowing gas to the surface. One of the articles posted stated that the final sale from the US Helium Reserve takes place this September, so a October/November discovery could go down quite well.

Dai, I'm not sure where the newly discovered sweet spot is, I'd assume it was somewhere north of Tai-1, but I'm guessing. The extent of Tai is shown outlined in blue here

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52090459668/in/dateposted-public/

bounded on 3 sides by faults, with the N/S fault running further up into other areas of interest and surface helium anomalies.

As for a producer, I think we should take DM at his word - "a razor sharp focus on a discovery". That is it, nothing else, no bells, whistles or anything else.

Discovery. Period.

But Tai could be quite a significant find, and potentially extensive, and whilst news at present doesn't appear to shift the share price at all, this presents an opportunity if you are prepared to accumulate prior to the drill bit hitting the ground in something like 4 months time.

But it is up to each investor to pay their money and take their choice, if they so wish.

Also for anyone interested here are a couple of views of Tai-1.

This was taken on 26-5-2022 (2 days ago) Tai-1 is the light brown area immediately to the NW of the red dot.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52105115900/in/dateposted-public/

This was Tai-1 a couple of weeks earlier on 6-5-2022

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52104860019/in/dateposted-public/

Comparing the two images it is easy to see that the dry season has already started, and the area is becoming far less lush.

And this is an image from 26-5-2021, showing the drilling pad under construction.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52104932794/in/dateposted-public/

That day they tweeted a video showing the gravel being spread, and the next day the completed gravel pad. So I suspect we will not have to rely on satellite imagery to follow progress as the He1 twitter feed will be much more active come end September/beginning of October.

Will keep an eye out though for any obvious and untweeted changes.

Been thinking about what DM has been saying in the interviews and the news released last week, and FWIW these are my thoughts - subject to change if new information comes in - but I don't think it will change that much.

As always the starting point is finance, at year end they had $9.7M in the bank. In the 6 month period that they were drilling last year covered by June to December 2021 cash went down by $6.1m of which $1.7M was administrative expenses. So very roughly drilling and seismic cost $4.4M, and admin costs around $3.4M per year.

So to get through to December 2022 and admin is roughly the same, (I know they've hired a few new people, but most are probably not full time) then they'd have around $6.3M to cover the drilling (and anything else) in 2022.

Now DM said what I though were a few interesting things in the interviews, both of which were scripted along similar lines -

1. "We know that (Tai) it's got excellent quality reservoirs" - now if there is a reservoir there it must contain something. He doesn't say there "appears" to be reservoirs or the "anticipated" reservoir, he refers to reservoir.

2. "Maintain razor sharp focus on a discovery" - that is the focus, that is all that matters. Not exploration, not appraisal, not "defining the extent" of - but "discovery", and that is all that matters to Helium One.

3. Q - When are they drilling? A - Q3 - but DM said "end of Q3" is the target to drill - so any slippage is at least the end of September, possibly into October to start the drilling. Last year flush with cash, they got things together within a couple of months of the placing, rush rush, this year much more laboured and slower, maybe also a little cheaper, £ for £?

As I've said several times the company itself has deliberately ruled out a placing, they can't do it without a GM. A signal I think of their intent not to dilute.

In addition the rains should start around December, so they've left themselves a brief window of around 8-10 weeks (max), mid September to end of November to drill and then get all packed up.

So where does this leave things?

Cash is a little tight, there is a razor sharp focus on a single objective - discovery - they have only a brief time in which to do it around 8 - 10 weeks maximum, probably less in reality, but he also says

"When we deliver a discovery at Tai, we have a clear path to production."

To me that means that they intend drilling only one well, Tai-3, in the 2022 drilling campaign - but that is all that they need. This will get them the discovery, and after that all finance will be easily sorted.

Of course there is a flip side, if there were to be no discovery at Tai-3, but DM isn't bigging this up to raise, because we all know that he cannot. So no point in talking it up, as the drill bit will do all the talking.

So it is one well only, Tai-3, but everyone will be happy.

KO - excellent - bringing a bit of sanity back to the proceedings.

Yes, agree that they are constrained financially, twas ever thus, and not just He1.

Partly through choice though.

And whilst the 2021 campaign was supposed to investigate three different types of structures the only drill site ever prepared, so far as we know, was at Tai.

There is something about Tai....

Even with a much bigger team, they keep going back there.

And for all the investigation and seismic, they never really show much sign of going anywhere else.

DM seems to be staking much of his career and reputation on it.

Make of that what you will.

Anyone who thought that this was going to be a multi target campaign hasn't been paying attention.

They presently have something around $10M cash (give or take) and have themselves removed the possibility of raising cash via a placing.

So it is either a rights issue (very unlikely imho) or they pay with the cash that they have and tempt drillers with cheap shares in part payment.

I suspect that acceptance of shares in part payment is one of the trickier points to be negotiated at present.

Tai is an obvious target - Tai 3 - and it looks like 3 will be a repeat of 1, but with beefier equipment.

Part of what I was trying to emphasise on flikr was how everything was centred on Tai, with everything else looking fairly peripheral.

As it is it looks like we'll get two wells at Tai in 2022 and that will be probably it.

Then place and multi target in 2023, possibility in association with Noble.

Still not sure whether DM said "drilling to 2500M" or "drilling 2500M" in Dublin ie 2 wells if the basement is 1200M at Rukwa - which it is.

May post more detail at weekend, but he appears confident he did have a discovery at Tai in 2021, but couldn't prove it.

Keep sayin' it - they presently have no power or facility to do a placing.

Makes a good story though to put people off this share.

Interesting that good people are still interested in joining.

Re the Dublin radio interview did DM say "drilling to 2500 metres" or "drilling 2500 metres"?

The basement at Rukwa is around 1200 metres (see He1 website) so if it is the latter, then that would make it 2 wells in 2022.

Still anticipate one will be at Tai, despite the continuing silence.

in on the Lake Bed and Karoo area of interest you get this

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52090785314/in/dateposted-public/

which shows the N/S fault line coming up from the bottom of the picture (a bit faint), the blue splodge surface helium anomaly as helium escapes to the atmosphere, and the Karoo and Lake Bed area of interest, with Ivuna 1 1987 to the north west.

If the fault line continues into the area of interest then this is what we could be seeing (taken from Admission Document -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51881321343/in/dateposted-public/

If Tai contains trapped helium then there is a good chance this area does too.

Chopped off the bottom of my post

"centred around the Tai area."

Hope this gives some context to all the maps with which we are provided, as it is difficult to get context as to how they all relate to each other when they are just published individually in the presentation. There are a few other maps on my photostream with varying degrees of opaqueness, so some features are easier to see on them than others, if people wish to look.

Hope it helps.

Fingers crossed for next week.

It could be a big week - we will have to see.

Just been messing about with a few maps, trying to add a bit of context from what we see in the various presentations.

It seems to me that the most important maps with which we are presented are the MSS map from the January 2021 share price "spike", here

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51870082498/in/dateposted-public/

and three maps from the March 2022 presentations showing the areas of interest from the 2nd phase 2D seismic

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52056454204/in/dateposted-public/

the helium anomalies around this region

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52090941475/in/dateposted-public/

and the fault lines that underpin the geology

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52076987367/in/dateposted-public/

But how do all these various maps relate to each other, because no real context is ever provided?

Well, by overlaying the various seismic lines on the 2D surveys you get this (which I've previously shown)

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52090459498/in/dateposted-public/

which shows Tai-1, Itumbula, the 2021 seismic in yellow, the 2022 seismic in red and the areas of interest blue/green stars and surface helium anomalies - blue "sploges".

Add in the geology and MSS map and you get this -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52090717599/in/dateposted-public/

I had earlier speculated that He1 were interested in what I called Noble area 6 and Itumbula where helium escapes to the surface in quantity - but no seismic has been done over those areas. The seismic is concentrated around Tai and an area several km to the NE over the Itumbula high, as are the other surveys that have been revealed.

The extent of the Tai prospect (outline in blue) is also revealed, we were previously told it was around 2km wide and 5km N-S.

It is bounded by faults to the south and west (which they obviously hope traps the helium) and the western fault runs north up to another area with helium anomalies and areas of interest just outside and the the N of the fault map. This area is only a couple of km S of Ivuna-1 drilled in 1987 so they will have some idea of the geology there. Possible further drilling location similar to Tai?

DM mentioned drilling to 2500M, but the basement at Tai is only 1200M. The March 2022 presentation did not have a vertical scale for the picture on p11 showing the X section of the area A-A', just N of the fault map, but the basement looks deeper here than at Tai.

I guess drilling here, and maybe a single further well at Tai would make sense as it is on the same fault line, around 6km N of Tai-1, has again helium surface anomalies, close to roads, would be fairly easy to move between Tai and this area, and would target both the Karoo and Lake Beds.

Of course we only know what they tell us , but all the maps and information disclosed do still seem to be centred around the Tai ar

Indeed - but what other amendments were there on other slides, if any - we do not know.

And why choose that particular slide to go with the tweet?

It discloses only information which can be found elsewhere - an increased spot price.

But why not another slide?

Well the inference could be that another slide would show information which cannot be found elsewhere.

Come the middle of the week after next I'm expecting a new presentation with major revisions - just speculation, of course.

Just to interject - the slide used last week on twitter is not the same as the March 2022 Presentation - which is the last we have seen.

This is slide 5 of March 2022 -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52075009253/in/dateposted-public/

This is what appears to be slide 5 from last week -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52075008846/in/dateposted-public/

There is an addition.

Who knows what is in the other slides? No doubt slide 5 was chosen carefully to illustrate the twitter post - maybe more was disclosed elsewhere, although it could not be "market sensitive information". But who knows what is in the other slides?

I was a little concerned it might be as the share price plunged over the next 24 hours following the 121, as did much of the market, but seems to have recovered its composure since.

However, there is certainly an amended presentation floating about.

As to all the "delays" I too am a little perplexed, but then I remind myself I'm just a small punter who has never run anything bigger than a mediocre netball team and I am impatient as ever.

But I'm pretty sure we'll get a decent update by then end of the week following, with Q3 drilling (possibly only a couple of wells tho'?).

Will keep an eye out for any obvious changes at Tai, and will post accordingly, but it would be impossible to spot any drill activity at another location using Sentinel 2 imagery, simply insufficient definition.

We know the helium is there - it flows out of the ground in quantity, only question is it trapped? So long term I'm pretty optimistic.

No country can join NATO until all its territorial disputes with neighbours are settled.

Finland (neutral for 80 years) and Sweden (neutral for 210 years) have no territorial disputes.

Ukraine does have "territorial disputes" invented by Putin in the Donbas and Crimea with so called "separatists" demanding independence.

In fact many of the former republics which comprised the Soviet Union and neighbour Russia do have such "territorial disputes" - Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia - all invented, fuelled and supported by Russia, precisely so these countries are unable to meet the criterial for joining NATO.

It is all on page 1 of the Russian playbook, as is bombing hospitals, schools, bakeries, grain stores etc.

As for Boris's "guarantee" to Finland and Sweden it was made clear that this included a nuclear guarantee, so any incursion puts Moscow at risk of obliteration.

And anyone who thinks that such "guarantee" is a mere puff and isn't really worth the paper it is written on should note the last time a British PM gave such a guarantee to a European country was to Poland in Spring 1939, and Berlin was indeed eventually obliterated.

As to relevance to He1? Russia will never produce that extra 25% of helium from Siberia which was anticipated - and anyone who thinks that China will supply the equipment to make that work can think again. Indeed as Russian gas production starts falling the helium they do produce will also decline.

As to the Russian Army, it is shortly about to enter a meat grinder from which it cannot escape, and I expect the war to be largely over by the end of the year.

As to Russia it is in fact the Russian Federation, so it is possible that the peripheral parts secede, once the scale of Moscow's defeat becomes clear, further no doubt reducing gas production (and helium) long term.

So if He1 can find commercially extractable supplies it all looks very good here.

(Not trying to be flippant concerning an unnecessary human tragedy of epic proportions)

For anyone who is interested this is an image of the Tai-1 site taken 3 days ago on 11-5-2022 by Sentinel-2.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52073140318/in/dateposted-public/

The area around the drilling site appears to have returned to farmland, although the immediate area around the actual drilling location is light brown indicating that it appears to have been left clear of vegetation, or possibly fenced.

No doubt the surrounding area of crops/vegetation could be cleared quickly if necessary, suitable compensation being paid.

It is also clear from recent imagery that the rains have stopped, and the dry season has started.

Resolution isn't great but it is fairly clear that there is no present activity at the site. I'll see if there are any higher resolution images available - there will be of course, but it is getting hold of them that is the problem.

Sorry to bang on about the resolutions at the agm but they have no authority or power to do a placing.

They didn't disallow preemptive rights, so whilst they can issue 200M shares, if they so wish, they have to be offered to all existing shareholders pro rata.

Only after all existing shareholders have had their dibs, including any extra entitlements or requests, can they be offered to third parties.

So a rights issue cannot be ruled out, but definitely no placing, unless they call another GM.

I did do a detailed post on this a couple of months back, as to precisely why this is so.

The lack of a resolution disallowing pre emption rights at the agm was a matter of choice by the company, they could have easily got it passed.

Why they chose not to I'm not sure, but it was their choice.

As to how many drills, that is unknown, Noble seem to expect a fairly short campaign, 3 months or so.

There is obviously another presentation floating around - wonder what it says?

The slide shown isn't from the March 2022 presentation.

Looks like something new.

Should be go to call gm if want to disallow rights, 4 weeks plus

DD, no time to post atm, but all flows from lack of disallowing pre emption rights at agm.

So raising would either be rights issue to all, long, expensive, messy 6 weeks plus, or go to disallow rights if want a placing 4 weeks plus, which they could have done at agm anyway

Hence conclusion alternative funding, if required.

Last year DM "said too much."

This year DM "says too little."

He cannot win, at least not with everyone, and maybe not with the majority; or is there a silent minority?

There is much we are not told. We are given a hint with the information in the March presentation.

Multiple surface seeps on the newly surveyed areas, well away from the seeps at Tai itself.

The seeps at the surface are all over the place, just look at the maps provided.

I'm sure they'll get a rig, just a little more patience.

And for some reason it appears that they won't need to raise conventional funds via a share issue.

So let's see what the next two weeks brings...