RE: DM gotta pull something out of the hat soon!29 Jun 2022 17:22
I don't know what DM's timetable is but I remain quite relaxed about matters.
If one was to work backwards from the rainy season start in mid December, you could work out a timeline based on needing to finish drilling at that time, and a possible timeline of what DM & Co are up to.
So...
Mid December - must be all packed up and gone from drilling site.
Say it takes two weeks to pack up - then must start to be packed up by end November. Add in a couple of weeks for contingency, that gives start of packing up mid November.
Drilling and testing - someone said could all be done in 4 weeks, and 4 weeks per drill appeared to be their timetable in 2021, so assume that is the case here, and we have spud in mid October, with a two week contingency built in. But without the contingency, if everything was taken to the wire we could spud as late as end October, and still be packed up before the rains.
So that then gives a spud date of either mid October, with two weeks contingency or end October with no contingency.
Suppose we add in another two weeks contingency for a slow drill (Tai-1/1A took two months), then that gives you a spud date of end September - which coincidentally is DM's most recent target date.
Of course I'm assuming here that there will only be one well drilled, Tai-3, and I've gone into further detail on why that would be in previous posts.
So now we've got end September with 2 + 2 weeks contingency built in.
Drilling in 2021 commenced on 14th June, after rig mobilization was announced on 29th April, following funding on 16th April. That was pretty fast work, just over 6 weeks, the rig and other equipment was in Tanzania/Mozambique. Whichever rig is being inspected now is in "East Africa" - I know some have speculated where it might be, but it may be near, it may be far, so lets say 6 to 8 weeks for mobilization and getting it to Rukwa.
So 6 weeks would give you mobilization mid August, 8 weeks would give you mobilization beginning of August. If everything was pared down to the wire (risky, I know) you could mobilize as late as mid September and still get the job done, but there would be no contingency for unforeseen evens, as (repeatedly) happened in 2021.
So with a one well programme, Tai-3, you could mobilize at the beginning of August, have 8 weeks to get the equipment to site instead of 6 in 2021, 2 weeks contingency during the drill, and a further 2 weeks contingency at the end for unforeseen events. A 6 weeks mobilization, as in 2021, and you don't need to start moving until mid August.
So my likely rig contract news would be around a week prior to that, so that gives the last week in July, or around 10th August, if they intend to move the rig a bit faster.
I don't know when the RNS will come - it could be tomorrow - but I'm not expecting news until the end of next month, and that still leaves plenty of time to drill Tai-3 in 2022.
IMHO,DYOR etc, etc...