Member Info for skittish

The war in Ukraine is going very badly for Russia.

Defeat is almost certainly assured sooner, or later.

It will come at great cost to Ukraine, but the democracies will ensure (and are ensuring) that ultimately they are victorious.

Ultimately this can only be good for He1 as it will further constrain the helium market. Russia had intended to supply around 25% of global He demand by 2025. Now their economy is at risk of collapse, not from sanctions, which are largely a smokescreen, but from the political/economic turmoil which follows defeat.

They could possibly rescue the situation by doing a Grozny on Kyiv (which was at the behest also of Putin), but the Russian military may rebel against that. But only may, although that would result in a new iron curtain, and shut off Russian oil gas exports.

Hence their economy still collapses, as does the prospects for their producing 25% of the world helium.

Questions really are - how come US/UK intelligence was so so good? And why were the Russian military so badly prepared - not in terms of tanks, but in terms of fuel and food? Did they not believe Putin would actually do it?

And after 3 days the Russians still do not have air superiority. Big mistake.

Anyway the helium price will only go one way from hereon.

Lets get that elusive helium discovery.

AP, I would love for you to be right on DM already having made "the discovery" in Q4 but kept quiet about it as it wasn't the right time to make that announcement.

But I can't quite see that as being true.

Apart from that matter being pretty material to the share price, and those pesky stock exchange rules, this as we know is a bit of a leaky share and it was only a couple of months ago that we were playing with 5p. That doesn't give the impression of leaky good news.

Any discovery would of course cause a spike, but I would expect that share share price would afterwards settle for a multiple at least several times higher than it is now, with all the implications that would have for fund raise etc. After all, they would have proved that Rukwa was a goer, something which is actually lacking at present, whilst we are 10p or so.

Post the MSS survey the share price doubled, and has largely maintained that increase, because I think people saw that it justified there being a higher rating, with apparently lots of helium seeping up near Tai-1.

The evidence on the ground also suggests that nothing was going on after Mitchell left.

Tai-2 commenced on 19-8-21, and was complete by 26-8-21. It appears to have completed only around 70 metres, and I think that they hoped to make a "discovery" announcement of a shallow reservoir with this drill, but it pinched out. Whether there was a spat with Mitchell who knows, but everything was cleared off the pad by 30-9-21 and this is a GE image of the pad that day -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51897790914/in/dateposted-public/

This is with my annotation of the id of Tai-1/1a and Tai-2

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51897747754/in/dateposted-public/

I can't see them clearing everything off and then going back, and I can't see DM being quite about it if he did have a discovery on his hands.

That said he does appear confident, and will go back to Rukwa (Tai and Itumbula) much better prepared in so many ways than was the case in 2021; although that does beg the question as to why he wasn't better prepared in the first place, maybe timing, maybe he got the extra £10M a bit too quick.

Anyway I think 2022 will be our year.

Yes, although from memory both those wells were drilled in 1987, so seismic would be mid-'80's.

I would think that a lot has changed since then.

It also looks like He1 will be much better prepared for this drilling season, as opposed to last year, in so many ways.

Dai, would you believe I was just looking at that when you posted!

I had seen it before but couldn't really make sense of the data, however with the MSS map some things become clearer.

The Phd author, Joshua Mahwa (we need to give him credit) wrote it in October 2017.

I am a little suspicious of it as it is a Phd paper, however it does have a few interesting diagrams within it. It does mainly deal with the potential for traps for oil/gas (conventional) around Rukwa, and suggests this area needs further investigation, although it could be used for other purposes.

Well, it is getting investigated now...

As always Google Earth comes to the rescue and gives context.

This is the initial result.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51892939021/in/dateposted-public/

I've lined up the Mahwa fig 27 picture with the Ivuna-1 and Galula-1 wells shown on an old Heritage map.

The author postulates that there is a potential trap structure running SE to NW for around 25km+, which just happens to run right through our Tai location.

This appears to be great, but there is something not quite right, as the seismic which runs through Lake Rukwa doesn't appear in quite the right place. I'll have to fiddle with it to get it right but haven't got the time at present. That or the Mahwa map isn't quite right somewhere - it looks stretched N-S.

But overall looks good.

Of course He1 will have access to all the top notch data and brains, and we are really fumbling around in the dark, but it all looks quite interesting.

Tai and Itumbula here we come...!

Dai, well spotted!

And just for good measure He1 show two wells drilled at Itumbula on p93 of the AD.

The seismic line shown is TVZ-5 which the the next one up to the NW from the one next to the two blue triangles shown on p87 of the AD.

Presumably as all the faults trend SE to NW this is fairly representative of what we see at Itumbula itself. It is noticeable that these are just two faults that reach the surface at this location, although the diagram has obviously been reduced in detail for the AD. This may explain why there are so many salt evaporation ponds around that location.

Hopefully concrete news soon!

The areas within the red lines are the salt evaporation ponds, some it appears with algae growing in them.

And nitrogen does indeed encourage plant growth.

In the dry season you can see that all the water has evaporated from these ponds and the salt has been scraped away and built up in mounds for collection. This has been going on around there for hundreds of years.

The collection of salt is also shown to be happening at the lake around 50 metres north of the Tai-1 drill site, and we know there is a helium signature at the location of that lake.

The slide in the latest presentation indicating helium shows from an MSS survey at IHS location appeared to show that the strongest helium indications were associated with the salt evaporation beds at the IHS.

I don't think it is too much of a stretch then to assume that the brine springs supplying the salt evaporation ponds could also be associated with the presence of helium, especially as some of the springs are 30 degrees celsius (at IHS), which presumably have been heated by volcanic rocks. We know that the helium generation is also associated with high temperature volcanic rocks.

An area about 300 metres wide shown on my flikr feed is clear of the evaporation ponds, between the ponds themselves and the line of the escarpment - it could be that there is an effective seal here, the trap being formed by the escarpment itself. I'm thinking He1 will possibly drill in that area, and that is why the purple dot is there on the figure 4.5 in the AD.

Of course without getting the tweeted MSS document, allowing a comparison with the GE images of the area, and giving the seismic lines 13,14 and 16 in relation to the ground, you would never have been able to work out where Tai-1 was, and thus never appreciate the importance of the two small purple dots on figure 4.5 in the AD.

Everything follows from the MSS tweet.

This is why the MSS picture was "gold dust".

All IHMO, DYOR etc...

I don't think Putin does positive and he doesn't do bluff.

Il capo dei capi.

As it is a quiet Saturday on the bb I just thought I might add a bit more on my Google Earth musings, for those that are interested.

As I have mentioned earlier the MSS survey which happened to be overlaid on a GE map, gave us the actual location of Tai-1. The company appeared to have earlier given coordinates which were out by several km. By overlaying the MSS map on GE the actual coordinates could be established.

Using the seismic lines on the MSS maps the actual location of the faults shown in the latest He1 presentation could be established.

This then leads us the the map presented on p87 of the Admission Document (AD) dated 13-11-2020.

A version I've cropped (but only cropped) appears here, showing He1 licence areas.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51885507893/in/dateposted-public/

By carefully lining up the river running N-S with the river on the map above you can get a good idea of where everything is actually located. The seismic lines also show up on 2008 GE imagery so these can be lined up also, and that provides you with this -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51890721128/in/dateposted-public/

which neatly lines up the Itumbula helium springs with those on GE. I've also included my original estimated location for Tai, with the now known actual location for Tai-1/1A/2 .

As I've previously mentioned there are two tiny purple dots on the map on p87 of the AD. They mean nothing without additional information, but by starting with the MSS map one can discern additional information as if by magically. One of the dots is slightly SW of Tai-1 and when the MSS map and the line 13/14 fault map is overlaid over that area the dot is slap bang in the middle of the major fault SW of Tai-1.

I've also mentioned the "white anomaly" dots on the 2013 GE imagery and not only do some of those dots (maybe sampling points?) follow the line 16 seismic, but 4 of them form a neat cross within the area of the purple dot and fault.

This I conclude (IMHO) cannot be coincidence, as there is only one other similar dot on the entire map.

That dot is a couple of km S of the Itumbula Helium Springs (IHS). We know DM is interested in this area as it is referenced in the AD and he did his "David Attenborough" style video from there.

If we zero in on that area we get this

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51890721878/in/dateposted-public/

with the triangles neatly centred on the IHS and the dot around 2km south of that.

If you then get a clear GE image you get this

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51888214242/in/dateposted-public/

and I've highlighted with "possible drill location" where the centre of the purple dot is on the GE image.

continued....

continued....

And it just so happens that this location also appears to contain a fault structure, similar to that at Tai-1.

I must note here that my geological knowledge is very amateur, and this is speculation, but I've annotated a GE image with my conclusions, for those that are interested, here -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51890972159/in/dateposted-public/

The yellow lines represent faults, the one to the NE being a clear escarpment, and the red areas small lakes and salt evaporation ponds - again similar features (albeit on a smaller scale) appear at Tai-1.

The fault boundary marks a clear change in land use between SW and NE, the NE area being higher as a result of the scarp feature, and the SW area used for salt production as are the IHS.

The salt appears to bubble up from below as brine, filling the evaporation ponds from below.

This is a recent paper on the IHS mentioning that the springs are both hot and cold, and appear to be fed from Lake Rukwa. Before anyone gets excited it doesn't mention Helium.

https://www.ajol.info/index.php/tjs/article/view/207037

The point I'm getting at is that the helium (10%) appears to bubble up at IHS, with the brine - presumably from the hot springs which are heated by volcanic activity. Salt production is extensive in the SW part of the image above, and it is not a great leap to assume that He is bubbling up there also. Add in the fault, which could form a trap, and this is the reason for the second purple dot on the map on p 87 of the AD.

My (possibly slightly iffy and not fully formed) conclusions would be that area of the Tai faults and the Itumbula fault have always been areas of prime interest for He-1, over and above any other areas, and that Tai became a priority after the first seismic.

The area of Itumbula I have market is a likely location for drilling in the summer 2022.

I suspect He-1 have samples from both areas or He around 10%, and the geology is good at both of these.

I think He-1 will concentrated closely on these two areas to the exclusion of elsewhere until such time as they hit the jackpot.

All IMHO, DYOR etc

RKB, Yes, the £136K was good use of funds.

And from memory our present directors have options at 6p, 8p and 10p.

RL was also buying at around 4.5p last year, so the present 3.6p-3.8p price would appear cheap.

Also I like that there is interaction on the BB's between posters and a director - not common. I'm sure many boards have directors who lurk, and quite likely post but you don't know who they are. Here we know who the poster is and on the "other side" he has replied to a query within about 24 hours.

Somewhat refreshing, and this is a "skin in the game" company, so ticking all the right boxes whilst making interesting investments.

Quite happy with "steady as she goes".

I think you might just get your 80K....

I'm sure we will know a lot more prior to the AGM, not least because we are likely to get a full presentation, as well as news prior.

I'm still a bit confused by the shallow/deep drilling matter (although the last presentation was clear, they'll do both shallow first then deeper), as it no longer appears to be mentioned, just "drilling to basement". Maybe they'll use the same rig for both?

Anyway I'll stick my neck out and say they'll try to go for 4/5 drills in 2022, maybe a mix of shallow and deep.

I'll say two at Tai, 1 using the same pad as before, the other a little closer to the SW fault.

2 at Itumbula, around 2km south of the main spring, seismic was carried out there around 2008.

And 1 a wildcat, elsewhere.

Of course whatever plans they announce could always be changed, as we saw in 2021.

But I think it unlikely they'll make the same mistakes again.

The disconnect between the share price and value of assets is surprising.

However I get the impression that there remains a persistent seller (as always), and the shares is somewhat under the radar.

The seller could be selling for any number of reasons, not related to whether this is a worthwhile investment or not.

Last year any selling was mopped up by RL buying in quantity, not so now.

I think a reasonable catalyst would be payment of a dividend, but I'm not advocating for that anytime in the near future.

The investing policy appears rather successful, so I'll just leave them to it.

The previous directors also appeared to be quite successful at investing, their problem (or rather the problem for their shareholders) was they sought to take out much of the profits for themselves either via salary or expenses. Fortunately they left themselves vulnerable.

Maybe AE will get this on the radar for new investors, but I'm not holding my breath. This is slow burn, but the value will out in the end, so I'll keep nibbling until then.

We will all know when it does arrive on the radar, but for now I'm quite happy to be able to invest at these prices.

Whilst LSE was down (had trouble getting on it all day) I was looking at the MSS survey again.

It was tricky to read the information on which seismic lines were which on the MSS survey. I had assumed that seismic line 14, was the seismic line through which Tai-1 was drilled, as this was the line highlighted by He1.

But it wasn't drilled on line 14 but instead on seismic line 16, which runs parallel but is around 200M SW of line 14 - see here now I've blown it up...

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51887006376/in/dateposted-public/

The effect of this is to shift the overlaid Line 13/14 picture 200M further to the NE, which is now here...

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51887034578/in/dateposted-public/

This also has two effects.

It shifts all the faults 200M NE also, the faults to the E of Tai now line up much better with the lines of lakes, but the fault to the W of Tai also moves 200M and is now right in the middle of the red helium emissions on the MSS photo. So it would appear that the helium is indeed leaking out of the fault to the SW of Tai-1.

It also means Tai-1 was drilled in the middle of the two faults, thus almost in the middle of the horst structure and therefore did target the upper presumed reservoir and the back end of the lower presumed reservoir.

Does it make it better or not that the helium is leaking out of the fault to the SW? At least we know the helium is there.

I'm not sure, but I'm beginning to think that where you find salt bubbling up in Rukwa, helium is close by.

Yes, quite plausible, but by that Autumn of 2013 those white surface artefacts had disappeared, and they do not seem to have reappeared in any of the subsequent images.

Imagery pre 2013 is patchy, as it is at Itumbula.

But some form of sampling point, yes that does seem reasonable.

But who was sampling in May 2013?

And if someone did put the two little purple dots on an image pre IPO in November 2020 why choose Tai and Itumbula, as opposed to anywhere else?

Especially as the purple dot at Tai is only around 500 metres from where they ended up drilling, and the map at 4.5 covers an area of 130km x 100km (plus), and the only other dot is at Itumbula.

Of all the places, in all the world, they had to put it there.

Especially since we are told that Tai was "low priority" until around May 2021 when it became "must drill".

Me thinks that they know more than they let on when it comes to what is going on under Tai, and Rukwa sub surface.

IMHO, DYOR etc...

DM's previous awards cannot stand as he failed to fulfil the conditions.

What I'm getting at is I hope that he doesn't get another slug of awards on the announcement of the drill at 13p, as opposed to 22p, as effectively he would be getting the shares with a 45% discount, having failed to confirm a discovery, and fulfil the other conditions in 2021.

No particular problem with him getting more awards at 22p, but anything less would be giving him a reward for failing in 2021, because the upside presumably will be the same in absolute terms.

I won't hold my breath tho'.

Agree that they have a vested interest in the share price climbing above 13p, but the options awarded to DM & Co for delivering on time and on budget 3 well programme (15-6-2021) were at a strike price of 22p!

I guess those have fallen by the wayside somewhat, but another slug of options at 13p would give the appearance of rewarding failure - 13p vs 22p :-/

This is the white dot centred on the purple dot in image 4.5.

You can also see another of these dots next to the rectangular curser, as well as running parallel with seismic line 14

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51886126345/in/dateposted-public/

(Should have included in last post, as it would make more sense then...)

I've been thinking about that MSS survey again and looking at the admission document.

I am wondering if Tai has been of interest to DM & Co for a longer time than previously acknowledged?

From memory Tai was presented as a "must drill" target following the raising of additional funds and the collection of new seismic and running old data, so it was not an originally targeted area - or was it?

On page 87 of the admission document, dated November 2020, there is figure 4.5 showing where historic 2D seismic was obtained

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51885507893/in/dateposted-public/

Close to the centre of the image, adjacent to a seismic line and just below the name Kamsamba there is a small purple dot.

By lining up the course of the river on figure 4.5 and coastline of Lake Rukwa, we can again overlay it on the information we already have on Google Earth and relate the dot to Tai-1. And this is what you get -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51885521613/in/dateposted-public/

The dot is right next to Tai-1, and almost right next to the strong helium signature from the very recent MSS data - this is it in a close up with the MSS data, you almost can't see the dot because I've zoomed in so far, but it is there right next to the helium seeps -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51886110455/in/dateposted-public/

Now the curious thing is that if you go back to a GE image from May 2013 there is another dot, a white dot this time, centred exactly on the middle of the purple dot in image 4.5. but this white dot is real, it is actually an artefact on the ground at Tai itself. And there are other dots from May 2013 centred closer to the MSS helium emissions and also appearing to run parallel with the 2021 seismic line 14, here -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51885492391/in/dateposted-public/

These dot have puzzled me for a while.

So what are these white dots? Has someone scraped away the soil, or possibly installed some sort of equipment to take samples as long ago as 2013. By September 2013 all the white dots had disappeared.

Now the interesting thing is that there is one other small purple dot (and only one) on figure 4.5, just south of the Itumbula helium springs.

Itumbula was one proposed drilling location for the first drill. There are no white dots on the ground here that I can see, but is this the other main favoured drilling location?

Maybe Tai just pipped it after the first seismic came in, with that 3-way enclosure and fault, but I think it raises the possibility that someone was prospecting in Rukwa as early as 2013, and makes it quite possible that they did have some samples of gas from Tai even before drilling commenced.

Intriguing, I think.

I wonder who drew those two purple dots on figure 4.5?

Now we just need to get that drill bit turning (again).

And the Fresho investment showing a gain of 55% in 11 months based on the latest fundraise.

Extraordinary that these should be so lowly rated.

No doubt value will out in the end.