Member Info for skittish

I just though I'd add my tuppence worth for what it is worth.

Admittedly the helium is there, as shown by the hotspots and MSS survey showing it escaping into the atmosphere, the real question is whether it is trapped and extractable in commercial quantities. I am a "believer", but as yet that aspect is awaiting proof.

That is why it is 10p, if there is proof then it is many (many) multiples of that.

As for rigs, labour etc I expect all the ducks are just about lined up, although these issues together with others may have taken longer than expected. You wouldn't be presenting at what appears to be a big event unless you had something to say.

I've looked again at the March 2022 Presentation (dated 31-3-2022), referred to in the upcoming 121 event 23/24th May - must say I appeared to miss it being issued and obviously I haven't been paying attention.

A couple of things stand out to me - this is the FTG map showing the gravity highs and the survey lines from 2021 surveys, we didn't have any knowledge of where they were actually surveying until we got this.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52056454204/in/dateposted-public/

Also of interest is that Tai-1 is marked - the location could be discerned from the February MSS survey, but the actual location has not been marked before.

also just to the SW of Tai-1 and just below the Itumbula Helium Springs there are two rectangles.

These rectangles are in exactly the same location as dots on a map in the admission document (AD)

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51885507893/in/dateposted-public/

but no explanation has ever been forthcoming as to what they mean, or what their significance is. The dot just to the SW of Tai-1 happens to almost correspond with the with the highest surface helium release in the February 2022 MSS survey

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51870082498/in/dateposted-public/

and the rectangle is shown at larger scale there also. That these dots and rectangles are shown on the various maps at the same locations suggests that they are of some importance - but we are not told what that is.

The dot/rectangle S of Itumbula coincides with a fault/escarpment, which could be a possible future drilling location -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51890972159/in/dateposted-public/

Helium One schematic for what we are seeing is on p93 of the AD

It is clear from the FTG map that the area around Tai-1 has been surveyed more than any other, confirming their interest there, but that the area S of Itumbula and Noble Area 6 (where gas comes to the surface and is easily collected) has not been surveyed, perhaps suggesting that they are not intending to drill there anytime soon.

Overlaying the latest MSS helium anomalies map over the survey RTG map shows that the area they now may be interested in is well to the N of Tai-1

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52056329863/in/dateposted-public/

Con

Cont/...

This map also shows the exact location of Ivuna-1 (drilled in 1987) and this location appears to be verified by reference to Google Earth, showing a straight dusty line to the spot marked Ivuna-1.

They appear to be keeping silent on whatever they have found by way of MSS/RTG survey S of where Tai-1 is located. This is a large area, and still only a small part of our licence area, but there is no information forthcoming (apart from the tantalising rectangle), so maybe there will be a surprise towards the end of May.

Close up of the areas of interest

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52056782995/in/dateposted-public/

showing several are only a couple of km from the location of Ivuna-1, from which they have the geological records, and the surface helium shows do appear in some cases to line up with faults, which is what we also saw with the MSS survey at Tai-1.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51887034578/in/dateposted-public/

Hopefully only a couple of weeks more to wait now - I'm sure it will be worth it!

The nearly 1M buys late on Friday are interesting, and worthy of note.

Whilst we are waiting it is also interesting that Noble Helium from their presentation appear to expect He1 to spud its next well sometime during the first full week in July - sometime between 4th July to 10th July 2022 - although admittedly interpreting a precise date from a presentation does pose problems. Drilling is expected to be completed around the 1st/2nd week of October 2022.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52002119978/in/dateposted-public/

Noble were the first to come up with the "precise" Q3 date, since confirmed by DM in his Dublin radio interview.

Firm news cannot be far off.

Also of interest is that there appears to have been some activity dating sometime between January 2019 to July 2021 at the Itumbula Helium Springs, aside that is from the usual salt extraction.

We know that the Itumbula Helium Springs are of interest to He1 - they are the source of the 10.6% helium gas samples, DM visited there around July 2021 to do his "David Attenborough" style video, and they feature prominently in the He1 presentation of November 2021 -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/51870644065/in/dateposted-public/

There is also some evidence that He1 intend drilling at a location around 1.5km south of the springs area, as I outlined in an earlier post.

This is the springs in January 2019 -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52040220588/in/dateposted-public/

This is July 2021, around the time of DM's visit -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52040686450/in/dateposted-public/

The two parallel line across the lake have been in existence since at least 2008 (and probaby since before 1985 - but the pre 2008 images are not clear enough to be absolutely certain), but the lines disappeared just as He1 became active in the region .

Coincidence?

Have they merely been submerged by a higher lake level or have alterations actually taken place within the lake? Could this be an indication that He 1 could actually drill within, or next to the lake itself, rather than 1.5km to the south?

Hopefully news next week - if they are to be drilling by 11th July some equipment must be on its way there already, if not actually in situ at the Mbeya forward holding area.

My bet (and it is only a bet) is that it was recorded a couple of days ago and embargoed until X date - someone comes back off holiday and doesn't see the email on embargoed items - thinks - on a quiet news day - this will go well with the Hydrogen items last week.

Gets inserted into this mornings news feed....

No one at He1 HQ notices until the share price is up 15%...

RNS incoming...

Herd have now arrived.....

I'm sure it will come shortly...

But it is interesting - conspiracy or ****up?

I'd say ****up (always my preferred alternative, 'cos people generally just aren't that clever), but more are noticing now and the price is ticking up.

Maybe the herd will arrive this afternoon.

Just looked up Newstalk - it is Dublin based.

https://www.newstalk.com/contact

Interesting and unusual outlet to give the "scoop" to.

If I hadn't got any spare cash I'd be selling the kitchen sink to get into this now and prior to the proper news breaking - I suspect 20p as we drill is "nailed on", so it is an easy double from here (IMHO) even before we hit anything, and prior to TD, who knows where it would end up on a successful well - at 8 1/2 " they're taking no chances with that drill string and logging equipment getting snagged.

All IMHO,DYOR etc, etc...

The interview was only posted around 8.00am this morning so it is pretty significant.

Drilling 8 1/2 " to 2,000M in Q3. That sounds pretty nailed on.

Obviously Noble in their presentation of 13-4-2022 already had knowledge of this - see my earlier post of 13-4-2022.

2021 drilling was only to a maximum of 1,200M, but I would imagine in 2022 they would be limited to maybe a couple of holes.

Tai and Itumbula?

I would have thought that an RNS is likely now to be only a couple of days away, as this is clearly fairly precise and important price sensitive information, although by the number of trades today few know about the interview - is it an Irish business news website - released prematurely maybe?

He also mentioned the city of Mbeya - this is actually to the SE of our licence area, around 80 miles from Tai, maybe just giving a general indication of the area to be visited, rather than a precise location. Probably where their base is located.

Hopefully (I'm expecting) firm news is imminent.

PS - no need to worry about the licences.

Yes indeed.

The conversions so far are

6-4-22 - 2,069,063 for £204,810 = 9.89p (agreed price)
26-4-22 - 2,088,582 for £206,742 = 9.89p

On 6-4-22 the BMN price was between 11.5p and 13.1p so had they sold that day they would have made a tidy profit. Did they sell? I'm not aware but volume on 6-4-22 was quite high by recent standards. Would be more difficult to make a quick turn today, price currently 9.8p - 10.0p, but I would guess the decision depends on whether they "need" the cash.

RKB calculated (I'm sure correctly) that on 31-3-22 we had around £500K cash, so if none of the BMN shares have been cashed in then that would now be down to around £100K. If they do another conversion then I guess that would mean they had cashed in some of the earlier shares. Given that we are interested in alternative energy sources then that would suggest it would make sense to retain the shares, at least for a period.

I wonder if ALTE will get off the ground this time around?

Fingers crossed.

I'm sure an RNS will come, likely (imho) around the end of the month, but I suspect there will be a lot of disappointed posters on here.

In my experience when there is no news reported it is because there's no news to report, rather than it being the lead up to a block buster RNS of the century type thing.

Rukwa is virgin territory, so multi nationals will steer clear, they don't get rich by taking big chances.

I'm expecting a modest 2022 drilling campaign which will likely lead to a discovery.

Then everyone should be happy.

TSRA - not quite, but there appear to be interesting synergies between the two, not least that they are adjacent to each other and Noble in their recent IPO document weren't planning to drill until around 2024 at the earliest, now it is Q3 2023.

It really is great to see everyone arguing amongst themselves and getting tied up in knots ad infinitum.

However some that are eagle eyed may have noticed (or not as the case may be) that Noble Helium (our next door neighbours) have issued a presentation today - 13-4-2022.

Of course they are not He1, but do appear to be using the same Oxford/Durham guys as us.

Interesting snippets are that they believe that there will be strong news flow in 2022 not least that He1 will be drilling in H2 2022 - see here...

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52002586510/in/dateposted-public/

and from the presentation it looks like it will be a 4 month campaign beginning around July 2022

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52002119978/in/dateposted-public/

The valuations on p7 are pretty eyewatering also implying minimum 10-20X upside here on even a small discovery.

Hope this allows everyone to have a bit of a nap prior to the inevitable RNS - I don't expect it for a couple of weeks yet.

Zzzzz....

JW - ; )

Amazing - no news whatsoever and we still get 64 posts today, and counting!

Just think how many if we actually had news.

Chill folks, still likely 7 months till it rains, maybe longer.

Agreed there was no "leak" and this I think leads to one of two conclusions - either there is no news to leak, or He1 is conducting itself in a manner different to that which prevailed prior to February 2022, that is they are no longer a "leaky company".

Comparison with the January 2022 spike is interesting.

In the month prior to mid January 2022 the share price had been static at around 6p-7p.

On Wednesday 12-1-2022 it opened at 7p, closed at 7.1p, low 6.95p, volume 2.1M, about average.

On Thursday 13-1-2022 it opened at 6.95p, closed at 9.1p, its high, and the low was 7.65p, volume 36M.

On Friday 14-1-2022 it opened and closed at 9p, with a high of 9.1p, low 8.25p, volume 17M.

On Monday 17-1-2022 it opened and closed at 10p, with a high of 10.25p, volume 32M.

But 17-1-2022 was the day of the "Remote Sensing" RNS @ 13.00 and it was another four trading days before He1 reached its trading peak at 14.65p on Friday 21-1-2022, with volume at 20M to 45M each day.

The trading pattern over recent days is actually very similar, with a dull Tuesday of average volume, before a spike 8p to 10p on Wednesday, then a dull Thursday (and Friday). What is different is volume on Wednesday it was 10M, before falling to 5M on Thursday, and Friday 2M, very much lower than that on the previous spike.

With the January 2022 it is obvious that someone got wind of some news two trading days prior to the RNS, and volume suggests they told all their mates. But most of the rise pre RNS (circa 40%) was similar to that in the days post RNS, and in any event was largely not sustained.

But volume this time suggests that there is no news to report and the spike was simply coincidental with the new tax year, and many beaten down resources stocks went up that day.

So no "leak", and maybe no news to leak.

I'm quite happy with that, although I know many aren't. It isn't just about getting a rig, loads of things are in short supply. I suspect that it is maybe more difficult to pull things together this year.

But even last year they didn't get their £10m drilling money until 16th April, and didn't mobilise the rig until 29th April, so they aren't behind 2021 at all. And they really do need to get it right this year.

I suspect (but don't know of course) that they'll first go for a shallow drill at Tai (Tai-3), and get that discovery, before moving on to other locations - lots of extra seismic has been done at and around Tai since 2021.

Rights issue in the summer to all shareholders at a much higher price than today.

After that GM for disapplication of pre emption rights and fund raise at the end of 2022/beginning of 2023, setting up for deeper drilling in 2023, with production from the shallow wells using the expertise of our new container centric director starting in mid 2023.

After that the multi nationals can come begging...

Let's see how good a prediction is that.

Looks like a nice wedge formation on the chart - for those that "believe".

Sad to see any lth leave, especially at a depressed price - but each must manage their investments in accordance with their own policy and interests.

But I would say that I remain confident, and news may not come when we expect.

It is not simply a matter of rig availability, but shortages of many other items, skilled labour, sand, pipes etc.

Shanghai is in lockdown with a thousand ships outside the port waiting to load/unload - didn't some of our equipment come from China last year?

I'm sure that we will drill in 2022 at Tai and elsewhere and even if is shallow I'll not be disappointed.

Any news would be great but I'm quite expecting it to be at least several weeks yet.

Just chill folks...

Let us see what tomorrow brings, if anything.

Today was ISA day - lots of small resource companies up close to or exceeding double digit percentages, He1 did better, but maybe people just got carried away, a little.

Not convinced there will be news tomorrow, all too coincidental, but would be happy to be proved wrong.

If they do get a rig, my money would be on lots of cheap quick shallow drills to prove up a discovery, everything else will then follow in due course post a fundraise at a much higher price than now.

I await 7.00am with bated breath....

But I think before the previous issue they had disapplied pre emption rights so they could offer direct to third parties who were not existing shareholders.

I take from the position at present that either they don't need additional cash resources, or they have sources other than shareholders, or they know most shareholders will take up their rights when offered- let's see which it is.

Other alternatives no doubt available.

There was no resolution at the AGM to disapply pre emption rights so they have to make any fundraise offer to all shareholders pro rata.

I think the lack of such resolution is really very significant.