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SOLO Share Chat

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May 2019 spud Hammerkop 1 (Heritage 100%) August 2019 spud the first of a number of shallow Helium exploration wells. (SOLO 13.8%)"

I've now just found this via google - I'm not familiar with Solo (since taken over by ?) - anyone know whether it did spud, can't seem to find anything out about it.

The imagery suggests that a clear well site, at Rukwa A, but can't find anything out about it.

Dai, it does form a nice image, which is why I've pinched it here -

flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52875591096/in/dateposted-public/

and this is my interpretation

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52875031997/in/dateposted-public/

The area of the left side helium anomalies together with the BMF, forms the basis for He1's Kiboko lead shown here towards the bottom right.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52874661921/in/dateposted-public/

It is now becoming clearer why He1 retained some licences and discarded others.

It would appear that they have quite a bit more information than they disclose to us poor punters, as Keith Oz has alluded.

And surface helium anomalies together with seismic form the basis of Noble decision to drill at Mbelele and Pegere on the BMF on the other side of the lake. If either of those wells strike helium it would form a good basis for He1 drilling at Kiboko.

And would further reinforce the evidence for the "String of Pearls".

Noble have set themselves a high bar - 100% success rate, at Lake Albert!

Thanks Dai, I think that is from 2016, so that fits in with them intending to drill in 2017/8, hence the pad.

Some heavy equipment must have been intended for the pad as the roadway has inbuilt passing places etc, was it ever used. I don't think so, but a bit odd.

In addition a couple of points occur.

He1 have always lead us to believe they were relying on the 1980's seismic and the 2021/2 seismic they've carried out.

It is now clear Heritage also carried out seismic (there are new lines on their map) presumably around 2012-2016, along the Lupa fault. So He1 may have more information than they let on.

Also Heritage aren't on the Prime Energy client list, but I wonder...

Obviously not, anyone wanting to see may have to cut and paste

For some reason the photos haven't come out as links, so I'll try again here, in order

String of Pearls

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52868098870/in/dateposted-public/

Heritage plays

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52874694658/in/dateposted-public/

He1 plays and prospects are the same

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52874661921/in/dateposted-public/

As are He1 licence areas

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52874703598/in/dateposted-public/

Noble 3D seismic adjoining Heritage

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52874695986/in/dateposted-public/

Follow the pearls

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52874717556/in/dateposted-public/

Heritage drill pad at Rukwa A

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52875020854/in/dateposted-public/

Hopefully this will work!

As regular (even bored) readers of my posts will know I build up a map of Lake Rukwa, together with the various plays, prospects and potential drilling locations.

It is certainly an aid to me in trying to discern what is going on and where, and hopefully others too.

My interest was piqued again when I noticed that Heritage appeared to have actually defined a drilling location, and were hoping to raise money and drill as recently as 2018! This is *after* He1 and Noble appeared on the scene.

Nas-K piqued my interest by suggesting that the licences held by Heritage were still "live". At He1's IPO it was certainly implied in the AD that He1's licences applied only to drilling for helium, not oil or gas.

I indicated here

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52868098870/in/dateposted-public/

that Nobles "String of Pearls" headed straight into He1's licence area, their plays, and right at the end was Heritages Rukwa A (possibly also known as Hammerkop A) wildcat drilling location, targeting 300Mb oil.

A link provided by Nas lead to this -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52874694658/in/dateposted-public/

which are presumably Heritage plays in yellow labelled A,B,C,D,E and F.

Gold dust.

So how does this compare with He1's plays and the licences which they have retained?

Well it just turns out that He1's plays following the NW Lupa fault are almost exactly the same as those of Heritage, B,D and E are identical, as is F (licence since relinquished) and A is very similar.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52874661921/in/dateposted-public/

And then those leads which Heritage called B, D and E, together with A are exactly those areas to which He1 has retained their licences along the Lupa fault and have some degree of accessibility.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52874703598/in/dateposted-public/

So it looks to me like either He1 were just being "lazy" and copied Heritages leads, or Heritage had really good information and shared it with He1, or they both interpreted legacy seismic in exactly the same way and came to the same conclusion as to where the leads were, albeit they are supposedly looking for different things oil vs He.

However, Noble appear also very interested in the Lupa fault area. We know that they are intending to drill Q3 on the other side of the lake, but it is the Lupa fault where they have actually done the most extensive and expensive 3D seismic - here in purple at Chilichili

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52874695986/in/dateposted-public/

Now this place is really inaccessible, no road to it, steep slope and treacherous terrain behind, there is just a small flat area of land abutting the lake and I'd suggest that they could drill there, but would have to bring in all the equipment by boat. So why spend so much time and money on it?

Cont/...

Cont/...

Well, Chilichili is where Nobles licence area meets that of Heritage, the two areas actually appear to share around 5km of common border, and of course the Lupa fault (the grey line) contines into Nobles area and appears to form the boundary of Nobles plays marked in yellow.

Also Heritage were basing their leads on the Lake Albert drilling analogy, which is exactly what Noble is basing their “String of Pearls” theory upon.

And if Heritage have got it right then those pearls also lead into He1's area, and that is why He1 have retained those areas where Heritage thought there were traps which could trap oil and gas.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52874717556/in/dateposted-public/

Now I don't believe Heritage ever drilled Rukwa A, they appear to have tried raising finance in 2017, intending to drill in 2018.

But a close look at the Rukwa A location on Google Earth shows this

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52875020854/in/dateposted-public/

Dated November 2018 it shows a roadway leading to a drill pad. Earlier photos show no roadway or drill pad. After 2018 it appears abandoned with the lake shore encroaching.

But in 2018 or thereabout Heritiage were really serious about drilling.

Whilst most of the present activity is taking polace on the other side of the lake, there is something at the Lupa fault side which has got three companies, Noble, Heritage and Helium One really interested.

Interesting RNS from BMN this morning on refinancing the CLN facility.

On quick perusal not sure how it affects PRIM, but it could be that PRIM could be about to get paid out and become cash rich.

All those cheap alternative energy opportunities await!

No RNS here though as yet.

TL2482, no haven't seen that.

I'm not sure exactly how the licence grant is worded.

There are a few other unusual 'gaps' in He1's original licence area, they originally held most of the southern part of the lake apart from 4 or 5 smallish areas. I am wondering now if these could have also been Heritage drilling targets?

The correct map -

This is how it lines up with Nobles "String of Pearls", and He1 prospects and plays along the BMF -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52868098870/in/dateposted-public/

The important thing is not what they thought they were looking for, but that they believed there could be traps and seals at the Rukwa-A location.

FWIW I've recently found an article from 2013 describing a possible Heritage plan to drill for oil on the Lake Rukwa BMF, I wasn't aware previously that they had pinpointed any actual drilling locations.

https://geoexpro.com/western-tanzania-the-lake-rukwa-and-lake-nyasa-rifts/

The interesting point is that the article references Lake Albert and BMF's with regard to where Heritage intended to drill. This is similar to and the origin of Nobles "String of Pearls" theory.

For reference this is the intended location of Rukwa-A in relation to He1's licences - note how He1 was not granted a licence over this particular block.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52868103168/in/dateposted-public/

This is how it lines up with Nobles "String of Pearls", and He1 prospects and plays along the BMF.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52868103168/in/dateposted-public/

I suspect if any one of the three intended wells strikes a potentially commercial reservoir, then both companies have it made.

Dai,

Maybe now that the terms of the "winning" bid are known, they are getting approached by others?

The unknown party is just the "preferred bidder".

Interesting situation - and no congratulatory RNS from He1. Maybe they are equally as puzzled!

I'm getting my $ mixed up.

Nobles market cap (per HC) is AU$50M.

That is US$33.5M.

But they are being paid up to US$25M for just half of North Rukwa. So if North Rukwa is actually worth US$50M, then Noble are presently undervalued by a third, and that doesn't account for any of their other assets and any drilling upside.

So this is a very good deal for Noble, and should bring their value more in line with that of He1, where we are valued at £42M or (surprise!) $50M.

And don't forget, whoever the bidder is has had access to a data room and no doubt very expensive experts and computer modelling - they know far more than us (or the market) when they submitted their bid about what Rukwa is actually worth and what is there.

Africa Oil and Tullow stand out to me.

It is their Lokichar field further up the East African Rift that forms the basis for Nobles "String of Pearls" presentation, and has been referenced by Noble on numerous occasions. Justyn Wood was involved in BMF discoveries close by at Lake Albert.

And if the bidder is putting in up to US$25M for 50% of North Rukwa then that values North Rukwa presently at US$50M, which is the market cap of Noble, following their publicity drive, so there is nothing there priced in for a discovery or any of their other assets.

It appears Noble will have got a good price for selling half of Rukwa, and could get full upside on their other assets.

Yesterday I was singing the praises of Noble management, saying they appeared much more sure footed than that of He1.

Whilst they appear to have made a bit of a faux pas in terms of the RNS, someone must have pulled them up on it (looks like a call from the lawyers), I don't see that anything is there to have changed my view of that.

This is the (possibly non exhaustive) client list of Prime Energy - many "A" listers in there , and several who are already heavily into the East African Rift and will understand the geology intimately. That would have given them a head start. I think we have to trust that Noble know what they are doing.

A good chance Nobles potential partner is in there.

ADCO (Abu Dhabi Company for Onshore Oil Operations)
Africa Oil Corp
Africa Oil Ethiopia BV
Altima Partners LLP
Ansan Wikfs Limited
Aurado Exploration Inc
Bowleven PLC UK
BP PLC
Cadogan Petroleum PLC
Cairn Energy PLC
Cairn Energy Sangu Field Limited
Canmex Holdings Bermuda Ltd
Central Asian Enterprises LLC
Circle Oil PLC
Concorde Oil & Gas
Crescent Petroleum Company
Curcas Energy Ltd
Delta Oil Company
Dewan Petroleum (Pvt) Ltd
DNO International ASA
Dubai Petroleum Company
East African Exploration (EAX)
EurOil Limited (Bowleven)
Forum Energy Philippines Corporation
Fronterra Eastern Georgia Limited
Galoc Production Company
GEN Labs (Thailand) Co. Ltd.
General Exploration Partners, Inc. (Aspect Energy)
GeoEnpro India
Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company Ltd (GNPOC)
GSPC India
Halliburton Energy Services Inc
Halliburton Overseas Ltd
Halliburton Worldwide Ltd
Harvest Natural Resources Inc.
Impact Petroleum Corp.
Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. Ltd.
Jubilant India
Jura Energy Group Ltd.
Kuwait Oil Company
Kvaerner Oil & Gas Limited
Landmark Graphics (M) SDN BHD
L****n Oil & Gas Ltd
Leighton Contractors (Malaysia) SDN BHD
Mitsui E&P Middle East BV
Nabors Drilling International Gulf FZE
Nexen Petroleum International Ltd (Dubai)
Novatek Overseas E&P
NuCoastal (Thailand) Limited
Occidental Mukhaizna LLC
Orient Petroleum (Central Asia), LtdPetroleum Explorations (Pvt.) Ltd.(PEL)
Petrogas E&P LLp
PetroVista Energy Corp.
PTTEP (PTT Exploration & Production PCL)Qatar Petroleum
RAK Petroleum Ltd.
ROC Oil Company Ltd
Samil PricewaterhouseCoopers (Samil PWC)
SASOL Petroleum International (Pty) Ltd
Senergy (GB) Ltd
Sky Petroleum Inc.
SONATRACH spa
Sonoro Energy Iraq
Sterling Energy PLC
Target Resources SDN BHD
Texada Ventures Inc
Tiway Oil AS
TRACS International Ltd
Transeuro Energy Corp.
Tullow (Ethiopia)
Tullow (Kenya)
Turkana Energy Inc
Vitol Services Limited
Weatherford Drilling Intl
Weatherford Oil Tool ME Ltd
Wentworth Resources Tanzania
Willstar Energy Limited
Winstar Tunisia BV
Wood Group Engineering Services PLC
Worldwide Petroleum Services LLC
ZADCO (Zakum Development Company)

Wow!

The mind boggles.

Yes, it is most definitely good news - possibly the best in the last 12 months plus.

One thing that strikes me is that Noble seem a good "partner" to have, their footing seems surer than that at He1, and their management appear to have a good understanding of what is going on, and appear simply put to be "better" than we have been used to at Helium One.

This is their timetable which they issued in April 2022, over 12 months ago

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52002119978/in/dateposted-public/

Whilst not all the target dates have necessarily been met, and there have been setbacks, key dates, especially for drilling are still on target, 18 months from issue.

It takes some skill and depth of knowledge to get all that right.

Which may indicate that what Noble says about prospective resources and the "string of pearls" is more than just hyperbole.

It will be very interesting to see who their new partner is and what they will bring to the table.

"Coming weeks" sounds pretty vague to me.

They could have said "few weeks", "next few weeks", "this month" etc.

My optimistic timetable could be -

1. 3-6 weeks for the definitive agreement (the devil is always in the detail)

So that is 22-5-23 to 12-6-23

2. Money transferred immediately, rig contract will already be ready to go, so rig contract a few days after that

3. Mobilisation begins 29-5-23 to 19-6-23 - takes 6 to 8 weeks

4. On site 24-7-23 to 21-8-23

5. Spud 1-2 weeks say 31-7- 23 to 4-9-23

Doesn't take any account of delays with Tz government, are they going to be circumvented by some legal mechanism, or the possibility? of Noble requiring a GM?, latest broker note on Noble suggests they may still need to raise some cash (they are down to their last £2M at present), despite getting funded for the drills and pro rata back costs.

Interesting times, but I think a big step forwards for Noble and of course Helium One.

AIMHO, DYOR etc

Keith Oz - I think all the licences He1 have given up are in the southern part of their area, or within the lake itself. Noble haven't applied to take any of them over, so far as I'm aware. would be interesting to see where they both apply next, now that shortly they will be both cashed up.

Yes, the thing that strikes me about Nobles acreage (and further applications) is that it has become so large.

Not just at Rukwa, but elsewhere in Tanzania.

I know that most of their licences in Rukwa may be further away from the volcanoes and may in some ways not be theoretically as prospective as Helium One's, but size wise it is huge, especially in comparison with He1 after it gave up some of their less prospective areas.

It suggests a bit of a land grab, so may be positioning themselves for much further ahead, once that all elusive discovery is made.

Noble have done three presentations in the last month or so 28-3-2023, 14-4-2023 and 20-4-2023, all supporting publicity for their farm out, no doubt.

Their earliest provided a sum total of their previously publicised certified mean un risked gross resources amounting to 175Bn cu ft of He gas which is here

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52858915539/in/dateposted-public/

Mbelele is listed as 10, Dagaa as 1.1 and Kachinga as 7.9, all in B cu ft.

Noble in its latest presentation (20-4-2023) say Mbelele is two leads (which was hinted at earlier presentation, without any figures) Mbelele and Pegere, now listed as 8.1 and 8.4 B cu ft respectively giving a total of 16.5 B cu ft, a 65% increase.

Noble now also say that Dagaa and Kachinga form one continuous resource and have increased their totals from 9 B cu ft to 22.5 B cu ft, an increase of 250%.

It is also notable that these areas are those subject to the most intensive 2D and 3D seismic, so these increases presumably reflect the much better data that was acquired in late 2022/early 2023.

This surely hints at some of what was contained in the data room, as that information became available to bidders around 5-4-2023.

Obviously the information in the data room must be the same as that in the latest presentation, and the information in the data room must be correct, or at least Nobles best honest estimate, as if it were wrong it would be actionable as bidders are relying in it in order to make their bids.

There is also nothing in the 175Bn total for Nobles newest and most southerly lead.

What has all this to do with Helium One? Or rather, is it more than just passing interest that our neighbour and rig sharer has increased their perceived resource significantly?

This is a map of our and their licence areas. Incidentally their ambition now appears significantly greater. than that of He1, especially after we have relinquished some of our area.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52856767110/in/dateposted-public/

He1 in blue, Noble in yellow.

This is how it looks from the south.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52857082558/in/dateposted-public/

And this is how it looks with Nobles "String of Pearls" superimposed

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52856993070/in/dateposted-public/

Those pearls are heading directly into He1's licence area.

Of course they need to drill the prospects to find those discoveries, but as JW was involved in the initial oil discoveries at Lake Albert further up the same East African Rift, he must know what he is talking about.

And my location for Mbelele-1 actually falls on a "D seismic line - "x" marks the spot.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52856838329/in/dateposted-public/

It may be a while before that blue touch paper is lit, but when it goes it will be huge.

Noble positioning themselves for an eventual takeover?

Maybe?