London South East | The UK's favourite investor portal.

The problem on here is that far too many people want to have their hands held, whilst He1 prepares to drill.

Consider these questions -

1. Can anyone see where Tai-1/1a/2 is located by looking at Sentinel? Answer, no all trace was obliterated, at considerable expense post drilling.

2. Why did construction of the pad commence immediately following Nobles fundraise on 5-6-23, not a week or a month after, but just a few hours after.

3. Consider where did all the men, machinery, trucks, bulldozers, hard-core etc etc came from to commence work a few hours after Noble completed the fund raise. Majicked out of thin air?I don't think so.

4. How long do you think they had been waiting, and paid to wait, whilst Noble sorted themselves out? Days, a week, a month, more?

5. Do you think that they could have been paid to wait and still be waiting, even now?

Think about the answers to those questions, and you may become a little calmer.

Saint Lorna knows best.

All IMHO, dyor etc, etc

LW - I was just about to do a post, but that will probably have to wait until later now.

I too would be surprised if they binned the rig share agreement at this stage, however this project is full of surprises!

As to activity at the Noble locations, I can't see any as yet - their most recent Sentinel pass was 13-6-2023, there should be another later today.

And that is the thing about the difference in information coming out of He1 and Noble.

I've been able to locate the Tai-3 drill site to within around 100 metres for over 6 months now, and following the CPR last month was able to get it well within the drill pad area.

I was a little nervous as to whether I'd got all the coordinates and seismic lines aligned properly (they don't make it easy, everything is at different scales, but it is just about possible to do it), but getting it within the drill pad means all the various maps I've now got as overlays on Google Earth are indeed all correctly aligned. The Tai-3 pad location is proof positive.

But as to Noble, whilst I've pinned several locations for Mbelele-1, I think I'll be lucky if I've got the location correct to within a kilometre or so - such is the lack of real information, as opposed to all the whizz bang stuff which they give out.

And Noble themselves say they haven't actually determined the precise Pegere-1 location as yet. The good thing about Noble is that they've got to drill within a 2km strip between the main fault and the shoreline, and an access road and pad should be easy to spot within that strip. But as at 13-6-2023 nothing.

I'd imagine that the Tai-3 pad and access road must be nearing completion shortly, and that all those workers will then decamp up to Nobles site, within a couple of weeks. So perhaps between now and the end of the month should show another drill pad being prepared around 80km NW from Tai-3.

Exciting times ahead!

Still amazed that we have to rely on good old detective work to see what is going on, rather than tweets, but I'm not faulting Saint Lorna for that, far from it.

We'll see what the mid week Sentinel pass brings....

Another post may follow, maybe today, maybe later in the week, now we know the Tai-3 location with certainty, comparing the old MSS leaking helium data, with the Lake Beds (400M-600M) at Tai - an interesting juxtaposition.

Anyway, some may be grateful.

The gist was Saint Lorna is getting it right.

All the tweeting and presenting, from earlier by DM and now Noble are all a load of guff and mean nothing. DM's breathless 2021 tweeting didn't mean the drill was going well - it was a disaster - and Nobles tweeting/presenting just means they're still in fundraising mode.

Don't be blinded by all the fire and light, especially from Noble, who actually give very little useful information away.

Many have speculated on here it has been Noble that are in the driving seat, on the contrary I think it has been He1 for a while now, and following the farm out debacle they were told by Saint Lorna to get themselves sorted out or else He1 would walk away. No one thinks it odd that Tai-3 pad construction begins within 24 hours of Noble completing their hastily arranged fundraise, and binning the farm out policy which they'd been promoting for 18 months, ever since their IPO?

You think all those diggers, bulldozers, tipper trucks and all the associated hangers-on just came out of nowhere on 6th June 2023?

I don't know when rig news will come, drilling Q3 is fairly vague, could still be 3 1/2 months to spud, but I think we will get there this time.

Anyway to the nitty gritty -

This is the Tai-3 pad area 15-6-23 from Sentinel, vegetation shows up red -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52979763117/in/dateposted-public/

Same area, but in true colour, showing small darker areas on the pad which we know, from the last image, are not vegetation

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52980515724/in/dateposted-public/

For context, same area in high resolution, from a 2019 Maxar image, showing the area cleared for the pad,

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52981162436/in/dateposted-public/

Original image for context, showing SW part of the pad bounded by a track

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52980385176/in/dateposted-public/

and for more context showing the relationship between Tai-1 and Tai-3, and that Tai-3 is ion a seismic and ERT survey line

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52981239366/in/dateposted-public/

Calling LB "Saint Lorna" isn't a criticism of her but more those who thought she could walk on water when she was appointed whereas in reality she faces many of the same problems DM faced.

But if (as appears likely) she drills on the right side of the fault, with the right rig, and actually has logging equipment available when needed then she will have got three things right that DM never did.

So ignore those who swoon at Nobles useless presentations, which really tell us not much at all, and stick to ya guns.

If snaps of actual progress on the ground doesn't impress shareholders then there isn't much that will.

News will come in good time.

Just for completeness this is an image of Tai-3 comparing Sentinels 10-6-2023 image, with Google Earth from 23-3-2019.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52972098861/in/dateposted-public/

Obviously GE produces a much better image via Maxar, for which you would normally have to pay, but it is only updated once every several years, vs Sentinel which is free but updates every 5 days.

Maxar is a reconnaissance tool, whereas Sentinel is really a land use tool, hence the poorer resolution.

Sentinel does however show the roadway, and an area cleared which is obviously to be used as the pad, and which had been grass on 5-6-2023.

Sentinels next pass over the area will be on 15-6-2023, when I would expect to see further changes and maybe the pad further defined.

I would then expect whoever is doing the pad works to move around 80km north and complete a pad for Noble at the Mbelele-1 site, the location of which presently is a matter of conjecture, as despite the furious publicity drive Noble has not actually provided any firm information on that location.

Just to show how more open He1 has actually been this was my estimated location from last month as to the likely location of Tai-3, extrapolated from the CPR and the previously provided seismic lines. Obviously you have to jump through a number of hoops and get all that right at each stage to be actually able to do this, but I'd say the result is pretty much spot on.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52924740982/in/dateposted-public/

On the question of publicity, I'm amazed that we haven't had any tweets. Clearly He1 is a very different beast than it was two years ago. I suspect that Saint Lorna has already visited the site on several occasions, and maybe other places also, but we have heard and seen nothing.

It looks like there will be no breathless tweeting from the airport, or from the site, no razzmatazz and everything will be played with a straight bat. Anyone expecting a big publicity drive post rig contract may be disappointed.

We aren't Noble and maybe LB is seeking to distinguish us from Noble.

I suspect we will get bare bones updates running up to TD, and may have to wait until then for a full report, unless for example, they flow free helium as they go down, which would obviously be newsworthy.

Aut I suspect she is as reasonably confident as she can be of a good result.

All IMHO,DYOR etc, etc...

I certainly hope that He1 and Noble can book/contract the rig without further delay, and get it shipped asap to Rukwa.

I see no reason why they cannot now that Noble is funded, for at least one well (and why not two, as someone pointed out - they are having an EGM, early August, and could presumably authorise whatever funds they wished).

But if they cannot contract within the next couple of days, then I suspect that there may be some serious problem somewhere.

Personally I think people give Noble far too much slack. We are not shareholders in that company (thank the Lord), merely observers. But He1 for better or worse is joined in some respects with them.

Noble talk a great talk.

Remember that Noble farm out?

Everyone should do - as it was only last week.

It was planned for 18 months, the bees knees, loads of interest, people battering down their door to get into the data room. Endless tweets, majors and minors all interested (even Elon put in an appearance) all systems go etc etc...

Then the farm out is binned, overnight (literally) - rubbish deal, not at all satisfactory, no explanation, fundraising much (much) better, greater retained interest, bees knees etc etc.

I've already said I think they were spoofed by the Chinese Intelligence Services, but they did a 180 degree turn overnight, and no one thinks that is a little odd?

And this is all meant to be perfectly normal.

It is like reading "Nineteen Eight-Four", without the laughs.

This is what Noble tweeted on 29-5-2023 (only 8 days ago) -

"Our rig contract for Sofori's Drillmec HH102 rig is ready for execution"

Well either it was ready for execution, or they were telling (or tweeting) fibs. So why isn't it signed. I take on board that some costs may be reassigned if it is now a 1/1 well deal, but as they spent most of May "prudently" raising funds, as the farm out was obviously going nowhere (that funding was what all the tweeting was about, not the farm out), you would have thought that they would "prudently" also have reassigned and agreed some amended costs.

And on the question of giving Noble some slack, don't forget that they had a fatality in Rukwa whilst doing seismic, seismic for goodness sake. Really dangerous activity that, all those soundwaves or whatever and all whizzing about all over that place. They could easily bop someone on the head, and knock it clean off. Great "hands on" management there.

So I really do not see any reason for any further delay, these contracts are fairly standard, they've (He1, Noble, Sofori) have had months to work on it and sort out all the permutations.

It is showtime.

Unless for some reason it isn't.

But that pen needs to meet that paper and pronto.

today is a watershed moment in which both rukwa partners (for he1 and noble are partners, at least for this drilling campaign) achieve funding for their respective single drill campaigns.

both are now in a position to sign for a rig since the cooperation agreement was inked four months ago.

and it will be he1's first rig signing in over two years - a position which is not yet appreciated by the market but which soon will be.

i expect an rns from noble this evening, with a rig signing to follow almost immediately. someone mentioned a few days ago that lb & co would be out of the office next week - it would seem that they were possibly appraised of noble's plans to move swiftly if the farm out failed, as appears to be the case as there is no mention of it today.

and clearly noble has moved swiftly, no rns saying we are considering options, simply proceeding immediately to go for the next best option, as if it has been rehe****d in advance.

they seem to be moving to a pre arranged timetable, of which we as shareholders are largely unaware at present.

noble have been pursuing this particular rig since at least early january.

i scanned sfax port a few days ago on google earth. the entire port area was imaged on google with spy sat resolution on 15/17-4-2023.

one part of the port contained an interesting object, located at the rear of what looks like a crane maintenance workshop. this was imaged on 15-4-2023. at first i was unsure of what exactly it was - it looks like a trailer around 17.5 metres long, with a mast on. it is unlike anything else at the port. most of the artic trailers are around 10/11 metres long, occasionally 13 metres. so this is longer than all of them.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@n06/52927901729/in/dateposted-public/

this is it in closeup

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@n06/52927167477/in/dateposted-public/

a drillmec hh trailer with drill mast in lowered road position is 18 metres long.

i though "what is 50cm when your camera is 400km away, and travelling at 7km per second?"

this is an animation from drillmec showing a rig trailer in lowered road position -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@n06/52930214258/in/dateposted-public/

to me this object bears a strong resemblance to a drillmec hh rig and trailer with the drill drive mechanism and cabling removed, and it would be removed if it were undergoing long terms maintenance and upgrades.

there is reason to believe that "our" rig was already at sfax by 15-4-2023. at first i was 50/50 whether this was a drillmec rig, i'm now coming round to the idea that indeed it is. the alternatives are that our rig didn't arrive until after 15-4-2023, or it was undercover on this date, and this is another rig.

but i suspect that drillmec hh rigs are few and far between around sfax port.

make up your own mind, but i think this is our rig.

in the event of drill success, sofori also has it made.

Latest Share Chat

Member Info for skittish

Followers

Following

Posts (Last 30 Days)

Posts (All Time)

Last Post

Member Since

Share Chat Post Distribution (Last 30 Days)

Activity Log (Last 30 Days)