Member Info for skittish

And some people still don't think that this is all carefully choreographed.

Watch out for that Mining Conference next month, all the big TZ political hitters will be there.

And our helipad will be in use.

Almost time to go down the rabbit hole again, this time with D3...

Great find Dai, fills in a few licence gaps. Will look in more detail tomorrow. Some of the original He1ers too!

BMFCs and IBFCs too.

An option over our rig would make sense for both.

Yes, interesting that JW put his name down yesterday as speaking at the conference, just around the time Mbelele-1 could be reaching TD.

In He1's recent fundraise reference was made to funds put aside for "additional licence opportunities" without saying where these might be.

This is the current licence map around Rukwa -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53203732336/in/dateposted-public/

The area immediately to the east of Itumbula-1 has never been licenced for some reason, I would imagine that success at Itumbula-1 would make it a prime target.

Success for Noble in the BMF plays would make the remaining BMF areas south of He1's licences prime targets for both companies - cooperation here, or competition?

The "unknown" pin is an area which looks like it is being used for drilling, probably for coal seam information.

A closeup of the southern areas relinquished by He1 confirms that the new licence areas follow fault lines, to the north of the faults is agricultural land, to the south areas of salt collection, which presumably are also helium emission areas,

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53202896992/in/dateposted-public/

The area under Camp Rukwa is the Mzizi prospect, which the recent geology map released for Itumbula-1 shows that this is also a gravity high, with a small cursor slightly to the SE of Camp Rukwa - possible drilling location?

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53204162804/in/dateposted-public/

May do more in a few days on the apparent relationship between the helium emissions, the salt collection areas (which appear to be largely the same areas) and where He1 appears to target drilling, in areas where there are fewer helium emissions and little salt collection. We may however be overtaken by events.

As to Noble this is Mbelele-1 from Sentinel 10, 5 and 0 days ago, with an insert for context

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53204047660/in/dateposted-public/

Same for Mbelele-2

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53204011939/in/dateposted-public/

And I have an idea for a film - with an all star cast - Amy Adams, George Clooney, Kate Winslet, Hugh Laurie and Baldrick, playing the characters we all know, something along the lines of "Four Weddings and Funeral", but helium themed.

No guessing about it, there is much going on here that we don't see, we can only see the shadows playing along.

When our rig was 14km away theirs was 8000km distant, yet we will spud almost simultaneously.

Also suddenly He1 reveal that they have 10% he samples at a place other than the Itumbula helium springs, I bet that is news to the geological world. And where else have they been collecting samples, loads of places I bet, but they never tell?

There is more here than hitherto revealed, imho.

Without comment

Google Earth Maxar

Itumbula-1 4-9-2023 early construction

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53199627048/in/dateposted-public/

Itumbula-1 and surrounding area 4-9-2023/9-9-2023

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53199400496/in/dateposted-public/

Camp Rukwa 4-9-2023

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53199207724/in/dateposted-public/

Sentinel Itumbula-1 18-9-2023 showing roadway and slightly expanded pad area

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53199741015/in/dateposted-public/

No!

I think they are drilling in the right place.

I could never quite get my head round DM drilling in the wrong place, on the wrong side of the fault, when not only did he have seismic, but you can also see the fault on the surface.

Maybe with Tai-1 he always intended by passing the Lake Beds and headed directly for the Karoo, where theoretically the big pay is. Maybe it was his 'A Bridge Too Far' moment when the drill went wrong, and he couldn't get definite provable results from either the Lake Beds or the Karoo.

Maybe a risk on top of the other risks he was taking with the rig etc.

When it did all go wrong maybe it was just easier to say we drilled in the wrong place.

Tai-3 is playing safe, going for both Lake Beds and Karoo, but maybe not at the ideal spot for either, a compromise, but with a good chance of intercepting at multiple levels.

Itumbula could be just unfinished business, and if the Karoo has good seals, then it could be big.

Also there are some interesting dashed lines He1 has drawn on the geological map of Itumbula leading from the springs at 10.2% towards the Itumbula High and Itumbula well site and beyond.

They actually follow quite closely a line of trees and shallow valley on the surface. Are these theorised migratory routes for the helium, or am I just imagining things?

Anyone notice the similarity between Tai-1, supposedly drilled by mistake on the "wrong" side of the fault, and the proposed Itumbula-C?

They each have helium anomalies immediately adjacent, between the drill site and the fault line through which the drill passed/will pass.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53187241736/in/datetaken/

KR, yes the update appears correct.

The large white blob which I took to be the rig is actually some sort of structure.

So if our long lead items are still on their way, maybe puts spud back to something like 4/5 days hence?

Just a quick update.

Tai-3 earlier today , for completeness, although we are now getting up to date images from He1 themselves, so Sentinel is a bit redundant here

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53185598345/in/dateposted-public/

Camp Rukwa, just about completely empty, obviously the action is elsewhere now, but may be used to overwinter the rig

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53184687417/in/dateposted-public/

Progress at Itumbula-1! New 3.5km roadway taking shape now -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53185597455/in/dateposted-public/

Comparison with 10 days and 5 days ago

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53178987913/in/dateposted-public/

Pad is yet to take on a true pad like shape.

Work in progress.

KR, if you look at my post 11-9 20.42 you can see the photos from Mbelele-1 taken that day. It shows the dark blob over the well head has doubled in size and a white blob around 20 metres in length next to it.

All the containers in Marriotts Chesterfield yard were darkish in colour, but the rig stood out as white.

I think the photo shows the wellhead being setup to receive the rig. Obviously you've got to 'interpret' the images, but as the ship left Dar on around 8-9, it must have unloaded by then, and 3 days later it looks like a load of equipment has arrived at Mbelele, so you can draw your own conclusions.

I don't think customs would be a problem, this is a priority project with I suspect government support at the highest level, and both outfits are getting close to running out of time to get 2 wells in this year, although I expect them to be successful in doing that.

Of course you can't actually see that the white blob is definitely the rig, and more equipment may yet be between Dar and Mbelele-1 but I think that it cannot be anything else.

At the next pass I hope to see the white blob has moved over the wellhead, although if it is then vertical it may be more difficult to see, but the white blob next to the pad would at least no longer the there.

Josh, yes if you look at the images in the latest presentation with Itumbula-1 they appear to be targeting principally the Karoo and Basement. The Top Basement is only around 780 metres but the Lake Beds are only 4 metres depth, maybe that is why it is leaking at surface there, just behind the intended well location.

At Tai-1 the MSS showed that there was a faint helium signature coming from the dried up lake bed only around 100 metres behind the rig, which is where the fault surfaced, so Tai-1 and Itumbula-1 look to be very similar, at least superficially.

As always we deal with imperfect information, so all IMHO, DYOR etc, etc...

I think it was taken from the top of the crane which we have seen in a number of the photos from the site.

At 8s you can se a close up of the pulley assembly, almost right next to the camera.

Just after that you can see a load of pipes laid out and what looks like the pipe loader equipment. It looks like they are really ready to go awaiting the long lead stuff which should have arrived yesterday. The two stacks of pipes then shown at 10s were not in the last pic tweeted from the site but were in the Sentinel picture of 8-9-23. The tents in the middle were not in Sentinel of 8-9, so the video is recent, taken on 9-9 or after. The pipes in the two stacks are the pipes that likely were removed from Camp Rukwa.

I've has a couple of thoughts over todays presentation, or last weeks rather. At Itumbula-1 they are to drill though the fault direct to the KaroO, as I speculated a couple of days ago, almost ignoring the Lake Beds which may be out of closure, so the gas may have escaped there.

This is deliberate, and they say at Tai-1 it was accidental, although it was obvious where the fault is at Tai-1. I'm thinking was it really accidental, or did DM always intend to ignore the Lake Beds and go just for the Karoo as that is where the big pay is likely located?

At Tai-3 they will go for both, but just mainly the Karoo at Itumbula-1.

Also the production plant assumes helium at 8%, the only place in the world it is at 8%+ is Itumbula, so they seem to be hinting that is where they intend producing from. And if they get He at 8% I think an appraisal well will be really irrelevant as the helium by volume will be around 10x to 100x what it is anywhere else in the world,

Also Noble are being unnaturally silent, it was, is obvious that the rig had arrived at Mbelele-1 by yesterday but not a peep out of them!

No, I expect that it is for someone far more important that Shell executives .

Neither Tai-1, Camp Rukwa, Mbelele-1 or likely Itumbula-1 was/is large enough for a helipad and no provision was/has been made at any of them for such. Mbelele-2 being a larger complex that this would be large enough, but I can't see an "H" there on Sentinel.

And this helipad is fenced.

There is actually plenty of room around where a helicopter could be landed in an emergency.

This I think is some form of declaration, if not for us, then for someone else.

Yes, performance warrants were issued prior to Tai-1, but because the directors (drill) performed so badly they were never issued!

Latest images from Mbelele-1 from earlier today.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53181009379/in/datetaken/

Left image is the completed pad on 6-9-2023.

Right image is earlier today.

Centred around the drill location appears to be some new darker equipment - the "blob" is larger and darker.

Next to that is a large white piece of equipment - impossible to say what it is at this resolution, but it is around 20 metres in length.

The Drillmec is 18 metres long and white.

If Nobles equipment, or even an advance party of it arrived today, then our long lead items also arrived at Tai-3 earlier today - that would be logic from my point of view.

Very close now.....

Iamrich, I think Tai is perhaps the safer, much better understood prospect, more likely to give a decent result.

Itumbula is higher risk, with less known geology, but with 100x the helium percentage wise than that in the CPR, more likely to turn this into a world class discovery.

And blow the bl--dy doors off.

But there are 4 drills at Rukwa over the next 3 month and IMHO they are all linked in some manner, even if the companies and investors are in no hurry to acknowledge this.

Four bites of the cherry.

I think even if only one comes home, we'll be alright.

I'm hoping for at least 3.

Looking at where the surface emissions are coming from at Itumbula-1 it looks to me very like Tai-1.

But in this case they intend deliberately drilling on the wrong side of the fault and then at depth crossing the fault line into the closure side of the fault. The fault itself can be seen faintly on one of the images but curves down to the SW as it goes deeper.

They did this at Tai-1, but then it was a mistake.

So the 10.2% emissions at surface are from the unenclosed side of the fault, hence the stuff escapes. On the other side of the fault there are no emissions as theoretically the helium is trapped there.

Obviously though we have to deal with very limited and imperfect information and to do our best from there.

No doubt all will be revealed in due course.

Deep100 - that was the one!

Of course at the state this video was made, on the face of it things were still going well, although I suspect that they were already encountering significant problems.

At that time we hadn't worked out that Camp Rukwa, which is where all the accommodation was located was only around 3km from Itumbula.

Searching through a few old images from He1 I have come across this from a presentation on 25-11-2022 -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53180077916/in/dateposted-public/

It shows surface helium emissions at Rukwa, and was mainly used to illustrate the emissions at Tai. Of course the images are not designed to be blown up to enormous size but when you do and overlay it on Google Earth, you get this -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53180579053/in/dateposted-public/

Zero in on Itumbula-1 and you get this -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53180518660/in/dateposted-public/

Itumbula-1 is right next to a strong surface emission, but not right over it. I had thought that the emission of 10.2% which is within a km of the well was coming from the small lake 750M to the south, but maybe not, maybe the 10.2% stuff is right next to the well.

Around 9 month ago I had used the original spectra illustration to show that He1 were perhaps "hiding things" as the MSS signature over much of the most promising acreage is blanked out by the spectra graph, which is meaningless to me, and I suspect most others.

That can be illustrated here -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53180518835/in/dateposted-public/

All those lovely prospects outlined in white to the South and South East of Tai are blanked out by the pointless graph (only actually pointless if it wasn't intended to blank anything out). The area has been extensively surveyed by seismic, MSS and ERT but we are not to know what lies under that graph!

Ho hum, no doubt we will find out in the end, discovery permitting.

I'd say the Itumbula pad will probably be ready in around 6 weeks, so that is 23-10-23, 1 week contingency, so spud 30-11-23, 4 weeks to drill to 800M and test, pack up to Camp Rukwa 7km away by 4-12-23, prior to rains in mid December, bit of contingency thrown in.

Say it takes a week to demob and transport from Tai-3 to Itumbula-1, 1 week to set up, they need to be finished at Tai-3 by 16-10-23. 4 weeks to drill and test gives spud on 18-9-2023.

So that looks like a spud any day now. If the long lead items arrived today, I'd say they'll spud Friday or over this coming weekend.

Otherwise they'll run out of time.

Yes, of course if 10.2% helium is detected at the surface then the helium is escaping at that particular point.

I'm no geologist, but that implies to me that the helium is either simply leaking out via faults (the lakes tend to coincide with the faults at surface, as at Tai), or there is an overcharged reservoirs beneath the surface and the helium is 'spilling over' at that point.

The helium is being continually produced at depth over geological time, so just because it is leaking doesn't mean that there isn't more of it there.

He1 are targeting traps and seals near to the faults, which they hope have created a reservoir of gaseous helium beneath the surface.

The faults often mark the boundary of areas where minerals, gas and salts (and presumably helium) are produced on one side of the fault, but not on the other. This can be seen in the Tai MSS survey, and one of the images that I produced for the incorrect Itumbula-1 location.

The idea is that on the other side of the fault there is no release of salts, gas and minerals, and the helium too is trapped beneath the surface by seals and faults.

I guess the release of 10.2% helium gas 750 metres from Itumbula-1 is just too much for He1 to resist, and they hope that gas is trapped beneath where they will actually be drilling.

This to me now appears the far more exciting prospect as the gas at this point appears in concentrations of 100x that envisaged in the Tai CPR, and the potential play area is also many times greater than that at Tai.

Tai may be 'safer', but a discovery at Itumbula could be a 'boom' moment, and whether the shares are 6p, 7p, 8p, 10p at present will be really irrelevant.

Yes, Latorre1690, the price is really irrelevant right now.

Whilst Tai is interesting, and probably the 'safer' well to drill with the knowledge that they presently have, Itumbula-1 is located only 750 metres from a small lake that is spewing 10.2% helium gas.

That well will be targeting traps and seals almost directly below the lake.

The Tai CPR was based on finding helium at 0.1% concentration.

Do the maths!

Sentiment is just about floored at the moment, like the share price.

But things can turn very quickly.

Pity some of the more knowledgeable posters have retreated to the shadows.

And another interesting thing, which is really a totally useless bit of information, but interesting nonetheless.

Hits on my images of a few days ago, when I had the incorrect location for Itumbula-1, numbered around 50 for the close up images. The site is interesting and I'm sure that provided a discovery is made wells will be drilled around that presently incorrect location.

However hits on my close up images for the correct location of Itumbula-1 number around 150, and in a much shorter time period.

It is almost as if there are a large bunch of people 'somewhere' who have knowledge and know that this is the correct location, and are interested in seeing just how correct it is.

(It is actually very correct, to within ten metres).

Interesting n'est-ce pas?