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Thanks for that Rambo!
I do wonder if Saint Lorna got her letters a bit mixed up and when she tweeted the phrase "Commenced mobilisation of equipment" maybe she should really have typed "Completion of mobilisation of equipment"? ;-)
Bearing in mind that erection of the rig and associated equipment, from what I've read on here, takes around 3 weeks and it commenced around 25-7-2023.
Nobles Drillmec rig is due at Suez tomorrow evening, having completed around half the journey in 10 days. I guess it could get to Dar es Salaam by the beginning of September. They're expecting the pad to be complete by the end of August, so fits neatly. Our Predator and associated equipment took around 5 days to get from Kenya to Camp Rukwa, so as Noble are using the same haulier it would not be unreasonable to expect the Drillmec to be on site by around 10-8-23.
All in time to have a "carefully choreographed" joint spud around 25-9-2023.
Of course I don't know that it is all carefully choreographed, but it is interesting to speculate, bearing in mind that it looks like Noble, operating at warp speed will be ready around then, and Helium One operating at a nice leisurely and understated pace, keep banging on about that 2nd half of September spud, and it looks like their publicity will arrive around that time, even though the rig is several weeks ahead of their PR machine.
And they have both said their respective rigs will be available for "others" to use, and both will be in place over the wet season, and ready to motor in Rukwa early May 2024.
And both (both) Noble and He1 say that in the event of discovery, they'll be able to produce commercial helium within a 12-18 month timeframe. You'd almost think that they were going to use the same equipment provider, but no, that would be silly speculation, and I would never spout such nonsense.
Saint Lorna, take note, I'm spouting silly nonsense.
Mjapac, that is exactly what people said when I said the pad was being built a month before the company admitted it was, and when I said they'd drilled on the wrong side of the fault - it took around 9 months for them to admit that.
But you can see in the 14-8 tweet the pad is clear, but on 30-7 Sentinel image it is covered by a dark splodge, which can only be the rig.
The dates are the wrong way around.
Missed out the size comparison of the 3 wells, it is quite startling, I think
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53126867419/in/datetaken/
Wow!
Frayed nerves as we approach spud, possibly the biggest spud on Aim this year, who would have thought it?
You would never think that anyone on here, with numerous offerings sage advice, both for and against, could possibly have an agenda.
But don't worry, the seller if indeed it is him (and I don't know that it is) may only have another 50M to get rid of, if he is going down to zero, which he may not be, of course.
Anyway, no matter, I've tried to extract more information from those space pics we've been getting. Lets look at the reality that Sentinel tells us is actually happening on the ground, and does this accord with what we are being told by the company - well yes, but maybe also, no.
It is all a question of timing.
So this is three images, showing Camp Rukwa, end June, end July and yesterday -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53128339617/in/dateposted-public/
You can see that the camp is fairly empty, fills up, then is now empty again, we know the rig arrived around 16-7-23 (I know) , so the 25-7-23 image shows the rig and associated equipment (17 truck loads, wasn't it), and now they have all left just leaving tyre marks.
At the north end of the camp we see the pipes stacked in an "L" shape, they're still there, so no drilling yet. How do we know they're pipes? Well He1 told us so on 9-5-23 here -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52896943825/in/dateposted-public/
So camp fills up and empties, all straight forward, or is it?
Well maybe not.
So this was tweeted by He1, quoting Saint Lorna on 14-8-2023, just 6 days ago -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53129235009/in/dateposted-public/
I've helpfully included the text of the tweet. and in particular - "Commenced mobilisation of equipment" - so you would think that it had taken place very recently, shortly before the tweet.
But Sentinel tells a different story.
This is the pad on 25-7-2023
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53073704883/in/dateposted-public/
clearly some equipment is on the pad, a diffuse darker area where we now know the well head is. The CPR in fact told us the exact location.
And this is from 30-7-2023
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53082115558/in/dateposted-public/
So the slightly diffuse darker areas of 25-7-23 had coalesced into a dark splodge by 30-7-23, over the well head.
This is 19-8-23 (there was no Sentinel on 9-8-23, and 14-8-23 was cloudy).
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53128322665/in/datetaken/
The dark splodge is still there but now larger.
So what does all this tell us?
Cont/...
Part2
Cont/-
Well it tells us that the rig (being one of the first bits of equipment to be set up) was at the well head site, and likely erected by 30-7-23, so the picture tweeted on 14-8-23 ""Commenced mobilisation of equipment" was actually likely taken around 25-7-23, as on that date the well head site was clear.
It also tells us that mobilisation of rig equipment also started around 25-7-23, if not a few days before as Camp Rukwa appears to have started to empty around that time, and erection of the rig and associated equipment was well under way by 30-7-23.
The company would have us believe that all this is just taking place within the last week, whereas in reality all these events took place around 3 weeks ago.
One can speculate as to why this might be so, but with Tai-1 you got the tweet first, and then could see a few days later confirmation on Sentinel that the event had actually taken place. Now the event happens on Sentinel and is confirmed by the tweet 2 or even 3 weeks later.
The pipes seem to be at Camp Rukwa still, so they aren't ready to spud just yet, it would appear, but what if they are more advanced with rig crews also? I think they have built in a 2/3 week contingency in terms of news reporting, and the well site is almost certainly up and ready to go as I type.
Will they wait, are they waiting for some equipment to arrive, after the non availability of measuring equipment was one of the factors which wrecked Tai-1? Are they waiting on Noble, that 2nd half September spud date does appear fairly nailed on? Would both drilling at the same time result in some "insurance" as maybe it doubles the chance of at least one of them flowing helium to the surface.
I'm not expecting the 2nd half of September date to move, I'm not suggesting that, but it looks to me like they are just about ready to go and spud at the present time and that the news and our expectations are being "managed" - to put it politely.
And while we're on "interesting things" this is a size comparison of Mbelele-1, Tai-3 and Mbelele-2 - the latter seems way oversized, and around 10x the size of Mbelele-1? Interesting or what?
One fly in the oinkment that He1 may not have anticipated is that there is now likely a big seller, possibly a mate (or associate) of IS who having made money in the placing is now moving on and could have as many as 50M shares to sell - see my earlier post from yesterday. That may have been unanticipated and hence the sudden flow of publicity over the last week, and the drop in the share price.
All IMHO, DYOR etc, etc...
PS I'd say the pictures speak for themselves, but with all the de ramping and trolling recently it is difficult to keep up with things. And it is 14 days for an EGM, if they were to hold one, 21 days for an AGM - although I don't really expect either. Interesting that us and Noble will spud at the same time, even though we probably could much sooner, if we wanted.
Tai area from Sentinel earlier today, first clear images since 4-8-2023 -
Camp Rukwa appears to have emptied of nearly all the heavy vehicles and equipment, pipes appear still to be in place, together with the arrival of some new smaller equipment. Newly cleared area to the north probably merely agriculture.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53128125654/in/dateposted-public/
Tai-3 pad area, location of the well head is now clear, other equipment also moved to the pad. The rig is almost certainly there now, and possibly set up, as Camp Rukwa is obviously empty of large equipment. Dark line runs E-W across pad, maybe separating the operational area from accommodation area. Other equipment seems to be located in NW and SW corners of the pad.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53128322665/in/dateposted-public/
slightly clearer image here -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53128126049/in/dateposted-public/
General view over the Tai area, showing accessway and Tai-3 pad, DNR Base Camp area -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53127935676/in/dateposted-public/
Remember, that large cleared area and accessway 2km to the NE of Tai-3 has nothing to do with us...
I suspect some think that I'm slightly off the wall, but it has been difficult for even me to keep up (although I have been distracted, still not yet actually seen the presentation) with all the various twists and turns over the last week, and theories as to why the share price has fallen so precipitously, since the presentation, in fact.
We've had fundraising, that it wasn't “put to bed” at the presentation, macro factors, micro factors, that something is wrong with the company, that something is wrong with Tanzania, to name but a few.
Since Saint Lorna took over, if you exclude what I would call "housekeeping" RNS's, we've had 6 which have actually been for operational purposes, 2 of those in the last 10 days, one of which was an RNS about a big presentation, biggest for nearly a year, which actually told us very little we didn't know already. Odd.
I suspect that the presentation was a hand holding exercise as they knew then what was to visit over the past few days.
IS said at the AGM that directors would be buying shares, he was true to his word. I suspect that his ultimate resignation was already known about then, and he duly exercised his 6M options (no doubt at 2.84p) a few minutes before resigning. People think he has been selling them, to invest in a new venture, I didn't really believe it, but now think that they are probably correct. He says he would retain a "substantial" holding, but he could sell 10M shares and still retain that "substantial" holding.
As an aside DM never exercised his options, showing that he was ambushed before he had a chance to do so.
Anyway, would even 10M be enough to get the share price down by around 25% in a week? I don't think so, given a fairly healthy daily volume.
I know some on here hold several million shares (way more than me, I might add), but there is one holder, and only one that I know of who holds more than 3%.
He is disclosed on the He1 share price info page, and is Liam Hale who owns as at 31-12-23, the date the page was most recently updated, 58M shares or 7.07%.
I did write about him in a post in April last.
Who is Mr Hale? Well, I don't know there is very little information about regarding him, at least that I know of.
I would think that he bought the shares, or at least those which would take him over 3% in the placing in December 2022, so he would have paid 5p. If he bought all his holding at 5p that would have cost him around £2.9M. If he were selling now (I think a 3M+ trade went through at 8p a day or so ago) he would still be making a significant profit, he may even have a short going to compansate for the decline in the share price.
I don't know, of course, if it is him, it could be one or several large holders, we will only find out the true position many months hence.
And because He1 are registered in the BVI we never get any TR1's, so the jurisdiction issue isn't just an academic matter, it really does affect the information that ordinary
part 2
cont/....
but if it were him why would he sell now, just as we are about to drill. it doesn't make sense, or could it?
information on mr hale is sp****, he did have a notifiable holding in cornish metals but sold out in december 2021, only notified to the company upon their enquiry in march 2022, although if he'd bought at the right time (never notified) he could have made a pretty penny, as the shares nearly doubled in the run up to december 2021.
the only other information available is that on admission on 19th july 2021 he held around 23m shares or 7% of bradda head lithium, value on admission around £1.3m. he no longer holds a notifiable interest, not sure when he sold, (bvi registered, again) but if it were a few months of admission he could have made 40% on his investment.
so you could actually produce a timeline in which the £1.3m into bradda head became £1.8m on exit, into cornish metals, a quick 60% there becomes £2.9m; into he1 @ 5p, sells for an average of say 8p for another 60%, and so on and so forth.
i'm not saying that did happen, but it could have happened.
the reason bradda head is important is that on admission in 2021 the non executive chariman was one john ian stalker.
so it would appear that mr hale and is were linked prior to his becoming a shareholder in he1.
i haven't really got time to delve further at the moment, but i'm sure that there could be more information and links to find.
i know some have commented on here that mr stalker could be selling down some of his stake to fund a new venture which has just listed in canada.
maybe mr hale is doing likewise, and from his brief past history he appears to like getting in at an early stage on his investments and selling after an initial reasonable rise. maybe mr stalker has introduced him to another investment.
whilst mr stalker selling say 10m shares may have a modest and short lived impact on the share price, if mr hale were also selling a sizable proportion of his 58m shares then that would be much less easy for the share price to deal with and might need senior executive action to try and deal with that.
if the he1 board had become aware that there was about to become a big seller of the share following mr stalkers resignation, then that could be a reason to issue an rns about a rather pointless pr exercise presentation, and then do a hand holding exercise to reassure investors that all was well, but not actually revealing much new news prior to the selling starting, and hopefully enable all those newly available shares to be mopped up in sort order.
just an idea, which to me would explain the recent activity, without having to resort to all manner of other reasons, including a placing, which will happen at some time, but at hopefully a much higher price than now.
This does feel very much like 7-7-23 price action, which was also triggered by a Noble RNS.
That a presentation by He1 took place yesterday cannot be a coincidence. They knew this was coming, maybe so they can say later, 'well we did try to reassure shareholders, as best we could, sorry if you sold.
Unlike 7-7, when some sold in panic.
This is Ian Stalkers Swan song...
And Noble did promise "big news" would be forthcoming just a few days ago.
I don't know if the rumours regarding Noble are correct or not, but they appear to have been joined at the hip since January last.
In July Nobles rig was 8,000km away from their pad, ours was 16km away.
But to me it looks increasingly like we will spud/reach TD/announce discovery (select as appropriate) at the same time.
How can this be so? What is in that cooperation agreement?
LB has been on a go slow for weeks.
I know some are bored with me posting Noble progress on flikr, but I haven't been doing this just for fun.
This is looking more like Strictly than the Chase, all carefully choreographed.
Well, all I can say is it was great fun, for me at least, while it lasted.
I haven't seen the presentation as yet, and it may be a little while before I can see it, but I understand that Saint Lorna was somewhat dismissive of some of my various speculations.
You have to take that at face value.
But the preparation works for the pad were underway at the beginning of May, I spotted them by 12th June, and posted such, and hopefully kept people at least a little informed with 5 day updates. But it wasn't until 10th July that the company admitted that any pad works were taking place, let alone where and what they were. Perhaps we shouldn't have had to rely so much on Sentinel, I certainly never expected to have to.
I will continue to keep an eye out, but hopefully with more regular updates from the company Sentinel may become redundant.
I'm in for the long term, and the present price action is perplexing, apart from the 'believers' of who there are obviously way too few, it appear that many people seem unwilling to hold the share for more than a few days, or even a fraction of a day.
Hopefully surer footed management will eventually alter that so the share becomes a 'keeper'.
Just briefly, today we got ground truth pictures from Noble showing Mbelele-1 -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53118953930/in/dateposted-public/
and these of course accord well with what we have seen on Sentinel, here from 11-8-2023
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53118860599/in/dateposted-public/
The pad is right next to the roadway, no fancy access road and measures around 150Mx80M.
And they've told us today that all is advanced and they will drill here first. Earlier I had assumed that they would drill Mbelele-2 first as that appeared much more advanced from Sentinel. this is something I've alluded to before but here is the less advanced Mbelele-2. No ground pictures of that yet.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53102259624/in/dateposted-public/
Around 270 metres x 325 metres. It should really be the same size as Mbelele-1, you would have thought.
They too seem to like oversized pads, and what appear to be large superfluous areas cleared of vegetation - remind you of anyone?
They too are confident of finding helium and seem to me (all IMHO,DYOR etc) to be planning for the "P" word.
No Sentinel pictures of Tai today, 9-8-23 was never uploaded by the satellite and 14-8-23 was cloudy. Those pictures they released yesterday show little cloud, they may have been taken a number of days ago as Rukwa has been increasingly cloudy recently.
I don't know what will happen tomorrow, but LB is there as CEO, as is the FD and SC, who although a non exec actually has top billing and is the company link to The City and sources of funding - so I'm expecting some form of fiduciary event, but what form that will take I'm not too sure. They may have funding for two wells, but you can never have too much funding! Where from and what form it may take I'm not sure.
Saint Lorna has thrown us one big fat rabbit out of that hat of hers, can she make it two?
I'll be watching for an RNS at 7am.
the key thing for me regarding this drill are the differences between the 2021 drill and the present, not just in style, which is very different but also in substance.
tai-3 has been analysed to death over the last two years.
contrast that with the 2021 drill which went off half ****ed to say the least -
16-3-21 - commencement of seismic aquisition - up to this point they were relying on 1980's seismic
16-4-21 - placing
29-4-21 - mobilisation of rig
4-5-21 - completion of seismic
11-5-21 to 16-5-21 - sentinel shows commencement of pad works
13-5-21 - award of drilling certificate
14-6-21 - commencement of drilling
commencement of drilling with the wrong rig, in what was obviously the wrong place (you can see where the fault is on ge), with non working or non available measuring equipment.
it was a wonder that they hit any helium at all, bubbles or otherwise.
lb only arrived in february 2021, so no doubt was unable to stop the dm juggernaut when it came to drilling location. in a november 2022 interview she almost rolls here eyes when discussing the incorrect location, but dm is present so can only say "these things happen". team player. i suspect the location for tai-1 was chosen before even the 2021 seismic results were in and they were relying mainly on reinterpretation of the 1980's legacy seismic (details in my flikr feed but won't go into detail here), hence the complete faux pas, and drilling disaster.
so this time all being done properly, in good time, at a relaxed pace.
and in the right place, with the right rig.
Metis, no that is not the case.
All UK shareholders have rights of pre emption, that is that your shareholdings will not be diluted by the issue of new shares to third parties and thus the wealth of the company not be taken from you by dilution after dilution.
That is how Putin's Russia (and Yeltsin to a degree before him) operated (or operates) and thus companies stolen from their rightful owners.
BVI law makes no such provision, so to make He1 worth investing in that provision relating to pre emption is included in the Articles, so no new shares for cash unless they are first offered to all existing shareholders pro rata, so they can maintain their % interest in the company if they so wish.
That is why the resolution disallowing pre emptive rights is always a Special, requiring 75% of votes cast to pass. At the last AGM it was withdrawn.
SD, this could be the work of others, that cannot be ruled out.
But I'm not aware of anyone else operating heavy equipment in this area, aside from Noble and the gold mine on the other side of Lake Rukwa. Hertiage was exploring for oil near the gold mine in 2018.
But if your requirements for the cleared area are
a) to sit on the edge of the Tai enclosure
b) to sit on a seismic line
c) to be away from a populated area
d) to straddle two licence areas
e) to be on non agricultural land
then this cleared area is actually unique, and there is no other location, I believe, that would actually satisfy all these requirements.
Anyway the "real" post, and this question of forward planning by He1.
Obstando mentioned that the 350Mx350M area north of Tai-3 had been "recently" cleared - yes it has, up to a point.
I had been looking at images from previous years showing the same area, to really "prove" my theory, I thought at first I'd dropped a clanger, but now don't think so.
So this is the area, in the only really clear image we have from 2019 via Maxar and GE -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53111126770/in/dateposted-public/
And these are images of the same area via Sentinel in August 2019 and 2020
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53110149972/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53111141140/in/dateposted-public/
Again nothing to see.
This is the same area August 2021
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53111141235/in/dateposted-public/
With what we know now, you can perhaps make out the beginnings of a defined square area.
And this from August 2022
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53111230908/in/dateposted-public/
Perhaps slightly more defined.
And this from today, showing clear definition and evidence of heavy traffic on the roadway leading to "it"
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53110931949/in/dateposted-public/
So, the changes appear to have started as long ago as the summer of 2021. What was happening in the summer of 2021?
Tai-1.
Perhaps the area was selected as long ago as that following Tai-1, fenced off, locals allowed to collect bush wood from there (probably their main source of cooking fuel), good for He1 and for the locals, allowing the gradual clearing of wood and brush from the area over 2021/22, and then heavy work started in 2023 at the time that DNR began work on the Tai-3 pad and roadway, allowing the cleared area and roadway to it to be identified from imagery.
I guess the point I'm making is that He1 may be far ahead in its general planning, and much more work and planning has been carried out over the last couple of years that we have hitherto realised. IS alluded at the AGM to all the staff at He1 being gainfully employed despite it having the appearance of being "top heavy".
So maybe that has been the case all along, and the planning is far ahead of just drilling a single well in 2023, and has been for several years.
Wednesday should make for interesting viewing.
And Sentinel didn't upload Rukwa on 9-8-23, hence no new images, at least that I can find.
I don't want to take part in the "bickering" debate, far from it, but I think people on this board generally have broad enough shoulders to be able to take on board a range of opinions (good and bad) without having a long running spat about it.
There is no doubt in my mind that He1 will need to raise, probably before the end of this year - at what price and when even they are unlikely to know at present. We all hope it is after "discovery", when the share price will be high and dilution low, but there is no doubt to my way of thinking that the share price is disappointing bearing in mind we are probably only a few weeks away from spud. It is reasonable to question why that is, although the reasons for that could be many and varied. Some have a lot riding on this, and a few frayed nerves are only to be expected.
But the budget outlined on the last fundraise has I would think a fair amount of stretch in it especially that "formation evaluation" bit, so hopefully we'll get more information on the current state of funds next week
"Use of proceeds
The proposed Fundraise will support the targeted single hole exploration drilling programme, with the budget currently based on current estimated timeline and costs for the drilling rig, logistics, civils and drilling services, subject to final contracts, and limited cost escalation. The breakdown of the use of proceeds includes:
· Drilling rig: £2.07m
· Drilling services: £0.75m
· Civils: £0.36m
· Formation evaluation: £2.05m
· Drilling ancillaries: £0.35m
· Tax: £0.88m
· Additional working capital: £0.99m
The above use of proceeds includes an additional £0.45m of the Company's existing cash balance being utilised for the drilling campaign. The successful completion of the proposed Fundraise would provide the Company with sufficient working capital to at least 30 June 2023 based on the Phase II drilling campaign commencing in Q1 2023"
But I think they actually raised another $3M due to "demand" (at 5p!), so they may have up to $5M of "stretch" in there.
Anyway, cut to the chase, and those questions for the Board. I'm sure that they'll only answer those that they wish to answer, and I'm sure they they occasionally chuckle, or swoon, or roll eyes, at what is posted on here, by me included.
There are so many questions, and a day in the He1 office for a few selected He1 pi's wouldn't go amiss, however I don't think we'll get that wish granted.
But now I've used up most of my characters on this post and haven't even got to what I really wanted to discuss, so another will follow shortly, although some might find it tiresome.
It is basically on the subject of forward planning, and how pi's really probably only know about 1% of what is going on...
In the absence of real information you can speculate, but Tai-1 was drilled on the wrong side of the fault with a mineral rig rather than an O&G rig.
Maybe that was ultimately DM's call and waiting a while longer for that first drill could have resulted in a very different and proven result. He could have just run out of runway once the Exalo rig fell through and there was no backup.
Perhaps LB is just a bit luckier, but of course she has to prove the helium is there first, otherwise she also could be sacrificed.
An interesting life at the top.
Uneasy sits the head which wears the crown.