Member Info for Skippysb01

The photo was taken after she took the antiviral...

Thanks Marik

A more dangerous variant that impacts younger people more is one of the scenarios that is a concern. Building policy response to manage risk is very hard but just hoping it doesn't happen is not governance.

There are so many factors at play here. i don't necessarily see SNG desire to 'go it alone' being the only factor.

Selling SNG to big Pharma will likely make it available faster to those that need it. I think SNG would have to think very carefully about the objective here.

If we get a very good P3 outcome the cost of a takeover will be very high and the likelihood also high in my opinion.

I'm actually somewhat happy with the prospect of a takeover as it would provide some certainty in terms of exit for me.

The article I posted is from March 21 when the vast majority of the running total of UK deaths had already occurred. Not surprising that it draws the same conclusions as we should expect the impact of Covid to stay broadly the same for those who die.

If you die with Covid you likely lost a lot of potential years and that's very sad.

Here you go.

https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/news/1.5-million-potential-years-of-life-lost-to-covid-19

Actually I have come over a bit brash. Life expectancy isn't the same but it's easy to see why someone would look at that. There is an article somewhere which explains that life expectancy figures are odd when looking at specific causes of death but I can't remember where I saw that.

My point overall is that we as a nation are not taking the current Omicron variant seriously and that the facts around what is happening are not being well publicised and this is leading to a general public malaise about the consequences which will lead to further Covid problems.

I work with risk a lot in my job and I see that potential for disaster is very much higher than it has ever been in my lifetime and that tends to drive my perception.

So whenever I see anything that doesn't accurately assess risk - considering how important this is today - I want to correct it.

Risk of course does not project a certain outcome - but a range of possibilities - of which some are extremely bleak and yet avoidable.

To be fair the 500 per day deaths forecast was mine alone but it looks like we will get it next week to me.

I could equally ask you where you have verified your anecdotal info. I don't have to prove your anecdotal stories. It's not my job to help you find the facts.

Wyndrum. I wasn't being alarmist. I was correcting some widely held views which are popular but incorrect.

The reality is that the data shows what I wrote to be correct so it remains true even if you or others don't agree with it.

When SNG releases it's data we will believe it because it will be reviewed and peer reviewed. Why is the same not the case for the wider context of Covid and how it is impacting society - the data set is massively larger and the conclusions are therefore extremely robust.

It remains true that if SNG can show that it can significantly reduce deaths for the hospitalised we are onto a winner but if we believe Covid is a trivial illness then we won't make any money!!!

You can't expect JVT to be a cheerleader for SNG. We have not completed P3 trials/only published data for a few score patients, so it would not be appropriate.

We don't know what he thinks about SNG personally and I'm sure he would want it to be a huge success.

Should our P3 trial is a success the cheerleading will happen.

In more normal times Mogg would have to resign for what he said about the leader of the Scottish Conservative party yesterday. It's completely appalling. Not that he would have a significant job anyway but here we are.

This is what we get when we elect a government on paper thin ideals. A paper thin government all backing each other up in invisible clothes.

Populism only works if the people can't see through your invisible clothes.

They are quite literally making it up.

JVT though - good man.

Paragraphs. I like paragraphs.

Covid Myth Alert!!!

They would have died from flu anyway. Not true. On average about 30,000 people a year die from flu/pneumonia in the UK.
They were old/ill/ they were dying anyway. Not true. On average the life of those recorded as victims of Covid (died within 28 days of a positive Covid test) would have lived an additional 10.2 year EACH.

True, lots of hospitalised patients could benefit from SNG. However not much fun for the unlucky ones ahead of that.

Will be over 500/day next week. Any use of the word 'mild' by officials is gaslighting.

I don't think this was addressed in the trial protocol (someone will correct that if I'm wrong). The entry criteria is more about how ill you are at the time of entry. So even if you have been vaccinated that would mean that the vaccine immunity had been bypassed somewhat by the virus.

I would expect unvaccinated to be more represented as they are more likely to get sick.

It's an interesting point and I wonder how that will present itself in the data.

Thanks Alphageddon.

A million shares split into 2 trades just gone through. Can't tell if buys or sell as in middle of the spread....

I have worked for companies previously where bottles of champagne were often given to staff at Xmas. Never branded like this though.

It probably is the case that if they had a P3 party they would get some so you super sleuths should look out for that!

Wyndrum. I use a loose language analogy but I think my point is well made. The measure of this is to what extent we as a society are trying to prevent transmission of this disease to vulnerable people. It now feels like we are doing everything we can to give it to everyone and eventually that’s vulnerable people at the end of that chain.

Also the popular argument that the figures are somehow skewed because they show people who tested with Covid who died rather than what they died of does not stand up to scrutiny. The number of people dying with Covid as cause of death on the death ceritificate is in fact higher. Over 175k at last count. Death reporting is complicated but the method chosen is actually fairly valid without trying to autopsies every single death.

Also we are doing nothing to prepare for another wave. Nothing. When you know that the current dominant variant is only just prevented by the latest vaccine booster and not all of the time you have everything you know to tell you that the risk of a more serious event taking place is clear.

We need prevention + vaccines + therapeutics. If nothing else the current situation should have been used to practice for future more deadly variants. Where is our preparedness for future pandemics? We need just a bit worse to break social norms and get into a seriously messed up place.

It’s a policy of hope for the best. Looks to me like we will be over 500 deaths a day again next week. It doesn’t need a careful assessment of the stats at that point to know something is very wrong.

It's shocking to me that every day we see headlines about covid becoming less of a problem. When those death figures fall we get fanfare and when they rise we hear - very little.

Also the fall in new cases. Surely the fact that it's been so hard to get tested at all has to impact those figures!! People just are not bothering. Our school pick up has become a game of Russian roulette with parents with Covid sending kids to school and shrugging shoulders 'oh it might be Covid but it's just like a cold now innit'. 'I don't have time to get tested', 'they've run out of Covid tests'.

All those people dying, ignored. It's OK now. If we get another variant that bypasses vaccine and Omicron immunity and is more deadly this country is going to have a big problem. We have done nothing to better equip the nation for a truly dangerous event.

Bruce - yes all good. I was just talking about mm's. Just find the whole area is very misunderstood and I have certainly misunderstood it all in the past.