Member Info for Skippysb01

Be nice. OK so you think I'm wrong but I'm glad I'm not mad as a box of frogs.

Onwards and upwards!

Beresford. People selling shares will not in itself create a disorderly market. A disorderly market comes when the market cannot value the company and the SP is too uncertain. I don't see a suspension being required and I don't think there will be a relisting or new company as such - EUA2 is shorthand for what remains of EUA after the asset sale.

With 20% of the asset sale value on the balance sheet the sequence of event re the SP is this.
- RNS issued re asset sale - the SP is = to the asset sale value + market view on what the remaining assets are worth.
- Ex divi date - the SP is = to c20% of asset sale value (will be defined as a cash amount in the sale RNS) + value of the remaining company assets (valued by the market). That is a more certainty than we have today.

That 20% makes a huge difference as it underpins the value of EUA2 and avoids a disorderly market.

IMO - i hope we can agree to disagree. I'm just suggesting a view.

No need to suspend. Todays RNS tells you that the company will retain c. 20% of the asset sale value on it's balance sheet - so we will have a fair idea of what EUA2 is worth on the ex divi date. Suspension would suggest concern of a disorderly market but i think todays RNS removes that concern.

Anything over 0.2 probably means every single covid patient going into hospital will be given SNG as part of standard treatment. Worldwide where it can be made available.

Don't get into thinking the trades list on LSE has much to do with how the SP is calculated. Every day we see posts about 'more sells than buys' etc. It doesn't work like that.

The SP is largely about liquidity. If buyers and sellers are happy to trade at a certain price it won't matter if more of those sells are buys - unless the MM's do not have liquidity. i.e. enough shares to buy and sell at that bid/ask.

Remember those buying shares are not keen to see a higher SP until after they have bought. It's not just an upward pressure on the SP.

If they back dated the divi terms I would be amazed. Some have worked hard to get a lower average or legitimately bought in in good faith more recently. IMO there would be legal challenges to that scenario and rightly so. Also it would have needed outlining in the dividend policy which it clearly isn't.

Thinking about it I would suggest that anyone who invested after the ex divi date (if it was in the past) and before the RNS would win a legal challenge in this situation.

I do understand how hard the wait has been mind you :). Hopefully it's nearly done.

Thanks Brand. I'm surprised nobody else notice you posted this.

Significant insight IMHO. Mary knows how this stuff works.

Thanks Beresford. I have never seen that happen but I accept you have looked into this. I can't see a justification for a backdated diiv (i.e. only payable to holders at a previous date) in this circumstance.

Ex dividend dates are ALWAYS in future i.e. after the RNS announcement of the dividend.

So it will be possible to buy after the RNS has landed. Which is academic because the SP will already have rerated to include the value of the dividend.

I think it's clear that the BOD recognises it must have a dividend policy in place ahead of announcing an asset sale as otherwise the question from shareholders and regulator would be - on what basis did you calculate the dividend?

All makes sense as part of the asset sale strategy and makes it clear that EUA is including provision for a healthy balance sheet (the c. 20% of the income value which in this case is likely the asset sale value) for EUA2 which tells shareholders that the remaining company has value.

They do have to RNS any material new data as soon as practicable when it is known. This protects the market from insider dealing and protects insiders from suspicion of insider dealing. No company wants to have material news floating around internally for very long it carries too much risk. Hence top line data will be released as soon as it in known and has been through appropriate checks and governance.

Its a very positive tweet but it does not say that SNG have the P3 trial data at hand. I think we are reaching a bit. We already know we are getting the P3 results early this year.

I think the positivity alone is worth a bit of SP action so maybe it will filter through that Synaigen have awoken on twitter for 2022.

It's not permitted to deliberately hold onto material news. If SNG had the omicron data it would publish it. If it releases at the same time as the P3 results then it's more coincidental than planned.

True Ndn71 but an active fund manager will work a fund based on what they see in real time. 'Trading' is a broad church. e.g Polygon and Polar are absolutely going to trade if they decide to change or maintain the current risk profile for a fund - we may have seen some of that happening this morning but I won't make a prediction of a TR1 - I leave that to others.

Tonado - I always read your posts so thank you. Even if I don't always agree with the conclusions it's always quite thought provoking.

Bob - I think the charts give insight as to what the market in aggregate thinks is going to happen. Hence we have volatility this week as the market considers that the big RNS isn't coming in the next few days and therefore the trading activity currently points to a future date at which the market thinks it will be time to settle down and finalise positions.

If we put ourselves into the headspace of a day trader or active fund manager we can probably find other places to invest today and intend to come back tomorrow - but the intention to come back is not a given as would depend on what else was available at that point in time too. This is risk that many of us don't want to handle so we hold or de risk rather than 'trade' as such (we are all traders at the end of the day but not trading for a living).

As time goes by the probability of an RNS being imminent increases and the chart should start to reflect this tightening perception.

As Brand says - it's not magic but is probability which has learned from history of how markets behave under different scenarios.... and it doesn't mean the RNS can't drop today, tomorrow or the first Tuesday in Feb.

Fair enough Andybe4. You get bog LOL's from me for that last sentence. I mean just imagine if you did...

Well OK Andybe4. Everyone can make own decisions on when they buy or sell but I did not see that anyone was saying for certain that we would get P3 results today - just that it could have dropped today. It 'could' drop any day now.

I don't think 'I told you so' threads are good engagement points for grown ups so it was never going to get a great response now was it?

No idea what it has to do with todays general market either. Good news about Omicron being a less severe illness is only partial background and may be transitory at best. We don't know. The market is fickle and today is not unusual at all. I often consider investing in cinema's and airways and have done so for short periods previously but no impact on my investment in SNG.

I suspect a lot of this thread is a deliberate attempt by some to disrupt.

It makes no sense to sell out at the point of the main event after being invested for a long time.

If you sell it all then you are not getting back in at anything like todays price any time soon if we get good P3 results. If you sell half now then if you were going to buy in after results anyway you still can with the other half whilst getting the benefits for what you left in.

Bonkers and therefore just being deliberately disruptive.

I'm not trying to lead anyone in what they want to do but obviously an attempt to cause uncertainty. Those doing so are actually just hoping to buy in a a lower price ahead of results.

Surely the way to balance risk here if you are concerned is to sell some - hopefully you are in profit right now and keep some in anticipation of the RNS.

All this all or nothing strikes me as an odd way of looking at it - but it's your money.

There was a new test machine on one of the Royal Institute Lectures for kids this week. It a stand alone unit designed to be in situ in situ in care homes / surgeries etc. impressive cross of PCR and lateral flow. 1 hour for results.

Paraytec is below 5 mins and that’s only if you haven’t used it before….