Member Info for Skippysb01

Covid test stocks under the cosh this morning.

AVCT has revealed it's test isn't great for Omicron. Ouch. I think we are in a period where the public perception of covid testing is somewhat that it isn't as important as it was and rumours of the government changing direction on this hasn't helped perception either.

IMO testing isn't going anywhere - in particular the type of test that Paraytec has.

I don't think this means there is anything wrong behind the scenes I just think it's a bit of a missed opportunity. I can't think of another Covid stock where they haven't released an RNS to show variant efficacy where they have it.

Perhaps this is mixed in with the longitudinal study.

An investment company should be showcasing the value in it's investments. Omicron is a big value add if the test captures it. One look at the AVCT RNS and SP this morning tells you how important it is that Paraytec shows its flexibility for variants.

IMO BRH should have issued a separate RNS to confirm that the Paraytec test can detect Omicron. Whilst it is referred to in the last update it feels like the only confirmation we have is from Carl smythe on twitter.....

Size82. I agree. You can get that sense of difference in risk strategy by taking a look around the Polygon and Polar websites. They are behaving exactly as you might expect.

Trust me that Polar do not take any notice of the trolls

II’s have huge research resources but ultimately they don’t see anything that we can’t see if we have the time and the intelligence to find it. Resources are the big difference.

Polar will get to talk more closely to SNG than we do but it’s more like poker than an exchange of behind the scenes data that we don’t know about. The same secrecy applies. Trust me that if Polar had insider knowledge that something was wrong they would have sold a lot more than we saw today.

This TR1 is about de risking. Over the last few weeks myself and others have talked about it and is has to happen. This volatility is to be expected. It will be even more volatile after the P3 readout. That’s the nature of things. IIs have strict strategies to follow and that’s why they do way better than PIs. We tend to be emotional and lack strategy.

It’s all good. We will know soon and the odds appear in our favour. GLA

It did look like someone else was accumulating throughout the day. It’s almost like they are working this together. It might not be Polygon but sure feels likely.

Over the last couple of weeks a number of investors on this message board have indicated they may sell some (just some - a proportion) shares to bake in profit ahead of the P3 readout. It’s just de risking.

Polygon will have made a profit on those shares that they sold today and that’s good because they have customers who expect them to make money for them.

You have to accept that no matter how certain you are about the outcome of a bet there is still a chance it won’t pay off. Polar felt it was worth taking 20% of what they held off the table. I haven’t but I absolutely get why they did and absolutely understand that they still belief in SNG.

I have Bjork - Oh So Quiet going through my head...

Bergcarls - pun of the week!!

I'm no longer sure if this SP is fit to burst or if I'm fit to burst waiting for it to burst.

You would think that a lot of potential investors would be thinking that an RNS could land on Monday...... certainly we are in the zone now and the likelihood increases every day.

I know.
So bad.

I suppose they have to have a first training day but blimey it’s a weak one.

Today you would stockpile SNG just on the off chance (which is currently extremely high) that the next variant has high transmission + severity. Even for Omicron you can get people home faster and save some lives and maybe even reduce long Covid risk (if the later trial results for 90 days show this).

Stockpiling is bolted on going to happen as far as I can see IF the P3 trial shows the efficacy we anticipate.

If we have a sell off ahead of the ex divi date it would have to be absolutely massive to injure a SP that is underpinned by the value of the asset sale which will be sitting right next to the balance sheet underpinning the SP value. There certainly are not enough shorts open to impact it either It will hardly move at all after rerating to that value + the market valuation of the remaining assets.

If anything the market has been disorderly since the last suspension because without knowing the value of the sale/asset sale there has been very little way to value the company with any certainty. For the period between announcement of the divid and the ex divi date the SP will be very solid indeed.

Wyndrum - I was being bit tongue in cheek when I suggested I lack the discipline to stick to it :)

But I agree. The dream of the forever reward isn't real. At some point you need to have an exit or it's just an expensive hobby.

I think this is the hardest part of investing. When you get up one morning and you find yourself significantly in profit - what do you do?

I do have a plan but I probably lack the discipline to stick to it. I should sell some ahead of the RNS re results because that is the lesson I have learned from previous investments. I have a specific target for that and it's possible the SP does not get to that ahead of the RNS. To be clear I mean sell 'some' to lock in some profit - I will hold the majority.

After the RNS, assuming it's what we want to see, I'll need a new strategy because the new world will be all about politics/EUA/Governance/orders and potentially this is even more volatile than what we have seen until now - albeit the base will be higher and stronger.

All I would suggest is have a plan now and try to stick to it. We cannot time perfectly so accept that and act accordingly.

If it was Apil 1st I would be ramping this on the basis that I heard a vape company is doing a multi billion partnership deal with SNG - for the flavour you want while you get better.

This has got me wondering what interferon tastes like - anyone know?