Member Info for Skippysb01

RogerJolly - Think you are right. Even when we had the big sells over the last week there has always been plenty of buying. Today big seller leaves and yet not much buying. looks like a small number of individuals working this very hard on both sides until today.

Skittish. It would be great if we could see some ducks landing on the drill pad. If LB has a sense of humour she should order 3 giant inflatable ducks right now.

Quiet morning with very few trades going through.

What do people think our spud date will be and why?

I think 18th September. There were still some long lead time items to secure and drill crew needs to train/practice.

Its a good point. You have the courage to ignore the noise for 2 years and you still have the same potential outcome!!

Last time I thought I was choosing a commercial discovery but when I turned my card over it was the Ace of Dusters. So I may twist shortly after spud but keep a card for the big reveal.

Triplestar.

1. Different mindsets. A lot of people on this message board would see themselves as long term holders. Not prepared to move money in an out because the risk of that not working out is too high. Have high confidence that the SP is going to increase a lot from here.

The majority of trading is done by faster hands - they don't care about the potential in a months time, they are interested in the potential today. Who is to say you can't make more profit from trading the money today elsewhere - it's risky but it's a very real strategy.

2. We can't know for sure but there have been a number of larger sells for 300k+ shares throughout the last week. It looks like a pattern for a single big holder to either get out or de risk. It might look like someone is selling at a stupid price to some of us but a lot of investors don't work like that, fund managers in particular may need to raise cash or react to specific rules within the fund. They just don't care about what might happen next month in every circumstance.

Impossible to know what the SP will be for spud. However I note that when it moves it really moves. Don't be surprised if we make up the recent losses in a couple of hours one of these days.

I reflect on the recent presentation and LB saying 'second half of September' for spud. That set my expectations. If we start to see media suggesting it could be earlier than that then thinks will get interesting again. Experience tells me that when a CEO says 'latter half' it means they are hedging a bit and it's more lily to be closer to the end of September but with LB I have been suprised and she may be under selling progress....... unlike Noble who over sell it.

Triplestar. Not so sure. Everything points to a single seller holding this back right now. If/when they stop we should see the SP start to move again. We are still weeks away from spud so plenty of time for this to build. If I hadn't been building position in this for 2 years I don't think I would buy in to HE1 now for a few weeks TBH. The market will come back as we approach spud.

Agree with you. Without that one seller we would be doing a lot better. They can't keep this going for long.

I meant 'some of the bigger sells' obvs

Cybertron.

When you say 'ultimately for every sell there is a buy' this isn't strictly true. The mm's take on large sells together with the risk that they will need to sell them on (as buys) to other punters. Sometimes they might have those punters in mind or might see pending buy orders supporting it. But some of the bigger buys over the last few weeks have required the mms to reduce the SP to move them on. The SP has dropped a lot on the basis of only a handful of large sells (large relative to normal volume).

I'm not worried as such but the larger sells create liquidity so the mm's won't raise the SP. They need to get shot of those shares so no pressure on the ask and can result in them dropping the ask further to sell them on.

Look at the chart. Every time this happens the SP falls.

1 million shares old over 3 trades just after 11:00am. One was late reported. Would be great to understand who that is. Feels like the same seller we had last week. I guess we may never know. Until that stops it's hard for the SP to break out.

But yes it's holding up.

There has been no discovery. There are experts all over the world with deep pocket that will have been watching this and if we had a discovery the SP would be many multiples higher than it is today.

Posting this for balance. My view does not alter the potential one little bit but the drill and logging and lab work are all required.

Coco. I don't think they will address the funding point publicly but it would be nice. I really think they tried to within the rules. They will just keep providing updates on progress towards the drill and then an RNS with target spud date and then RNS confirming spud.

Hadn't Noble already committed to 2 drills but found themselves short of funds for the second one because they had to pivot from SOFORI to a more expensive option. It's not the same scenario.

OK. Not saying never but ultimately Lorna can't publicly answer the question about funding in any direct way other than to say that of course they will need to in the future depending on what they find. There is no other answer she can give.

I have always said I didnt like the relationship we had with Noble and it just provides pain for our SP. If this drop is because people are looking over at Noble and thinking - well if they did it then we will do it - that just shows how harmful. I expect we will drill weeks before Noble do.

Cliveas - you are right but it's a narrative that works over and over again.

Did Lorna's eye twitch suspiciously...... all nonsense but it takes nothing to create the doubt.

Agree 'spooked' is the right word. But I do think it's a case of the market spooking itself.

Even if they came in now and raised a few million ahead of the spud (I really don't think they will) I would be fine with that if it meant they can achieve shareholder value from that and I'll have the same view after the drill too.

Cybertron - doesn't that depend on what they do with the funds in the interim. Also - if they sold last week then they are already potentially able to buy more shares than they had. We don't know where the SP will be in x days but attitude to risk is very variable and a lot of traders have zero emotional engagement with a share, they may not even research it and prefer to play the odds on a number of factors like - proximity to drilling. It's not about holding but about treating the shares as a commodity in themselves.

They didn't really open anything up. We are opening it up. They cannot speak to fund raising with any degree of clarity unless it is in an RNS. You can see this kind of response to that question during BOD presentations all over the place. They have to be vague about it and they can't deny it will ever happen.

My interpretation - fully funded for next drill. Raise funds after depending on how drill 1 goes. That's it.

It's AIM so fund raising is certain. Makes no sense before this drill IMHO.