Member Info for Skippysb01

The comparison to the FTSE is always useful but ultimately the difference is you can sell Aviva shares when it is opportunistic to do so. Some or all. It's remarkably volatile for a FTSE 100 company. You can buy at 3.8 and expect it to get back to 4.4. in fairly short order. It took a global pandemic to get it really low but even then you could assume fairly safely that it would get back to 4.4 and it did (4.8 at one point). Be interesting to see how long that takes this time but when inflation gets back below 5% you will see it IMHO. Together with the dividend, buying in these troughs is very compelling.

Best case today they announce spud date as part of a plan update. Not being clear about the date - “second half of September” took the SP down this week - suggested there is still some uncertainty on long lead time items and recruitment.

Noun. damp squib (plural damp squibs) (literally) A firework that has been wet and therefore fails to go off correctly. (idiomatic, by extension) Anything that doesn't work properly, or fails to come up to expectations; a dud.

Yes I googled this.

Legal. There are lot's of reasons why people sell. If I sold yesterday I could have bought more HE1 shares today so I could hardly be called out for making a poor choice - I didnt but some have. Daily SP is very sensitive, it only takes a very small number of shareholders to knock the price down. It's the active traders on a day that influence the SP not the holders.

It's just too early for the SP to get the kind of buyer volume to move this from a £75m market cap company to a £200m one. That's a steep hill.

Loyalty just isn't a key driver behind the majority of trades in a day. A lot of punters looked at the RNS yesterday and thought - oh it's a month away so I'll take this money and trade it elsewhere and come back here in a fortnight - based on the reality that SP probably won't have done much in the interim.

Now, a week from spud might be a different story.

I don't think anyones worried about the presentation tomorrow.

Basically investors with twitchy fingers convinced themselves that spud would be at start of September. Yesterday they got told it will be second half September.

Thats all it takes for twitchy money to sniff elsewhere for a few weeks.

I think the RP factor has knocked 50% off the market cap. But true if we get some clear strategy it is worth a lot more than £3m. Hence I have stayed in.

I do think that if they get a discovery all of the funding stuff become a bit academic. I think HE1 will be a very hot takeover prospect at that point. I don't see HE1 taking this to market themselves or at all.

Good question. However would expect they have to say they 'will' need to raise funds after this next drill but on what basis depends entirely on the outcome of the drill itself.

If they hit discovery it becomes about making that commercial.

If they get a duster it's right back to basics. Do they fund more drills in the area just in case or go back to exploration of new prospects?

Most likely from one drill it will be somewhere in between these 2 outcomes. So more drilling for the same prospect and short term funding for that.

Market hit by inflation fears after the wages data. Hasn't helped LGEN this morning for sure.

Don't get me wrong. I see the potential. I just don't see the competence required to make this potential happen. Need to see tangible progress and less of the dodgy stuff.

The recent pump was just so blatant! So obvious that there was a deliberate effort to increase the price through chunking buys into the AQUIS exchange so they could get a fund raise away.

If you do talk to RP can you ask him where that core is that they were showing off in the pub last year?

Seriously though.... really? do spill the beans on what nuggets of truth he tells you. Drill soon? Let's see. Market doesnt believe it and even the fund raise RNS provided nothing interesting in terms of plan info.

I think I heard Lorna say they still had a cooperation 'agreement' in place shortly after both company's went separate ways on the drilling. Wasn't clear what it could entail. Maybe logistics at some point. Drills first though.

there is a difference between an investor and a gambler. lgen is a very good investment below 300. if you believe what you write then you are entitled to an opinion but if you are actually trying to de ramp a company of this size on this message board then i would suggest it's like ******* in the thames in terms of the impact you can have. all of the factor leading to the fall in sps in this sector are macro economic right now.

This is not a clever view. 'There is no such thing as long term'. Duh?

All insurance stocks are down 10-20% for wider economic reasons. Even the slightest bit of historical research into the sector would tell anyone that there is a very high likelihood of recovery even in the short term. Can see LGEN gaining 20% before end of this year. Only a bad call if needed the money back now.

Is that a genuine 'horses mouth'? Mr Ed, Richard Poulden?

It's not just about who can hold. Why hold today? We all have different perspectives but the RNS and interview provided key news on spud date. Now second half of September. This is too far away to drive the SP higher so the SP is likely (not certain) to slip a bit. So sell today and buy in later becomes a real strategy. Risky to try but a lot of traders do this all the time to keep funds active, not sitting waiting for something to happen.

Far more people are tracking the date of the 'event' on these 'event stocks' than are concerned about what the SP will be when we get there. It's academic until we get closer to the event date. In this case the next key event is spud.

When we get closer to spud there will be more pressure on the SP to move up. Today the pressure was released for a while.

Not a problem for me as Ive been waiting for years but ultimately there is nothing pushing the SP higher until we get closer to spud.

Interview today - Lorna stated spud will be second half of September.

All good. That's one of the reasons why the SP isn't moving up fast as it's too far away for that but it's still good to know. A few weeks left here to accumulate for some.

The RNS does not conclude on the final items leading to SPUD. Still recruiting drill crew. Still finalising long lead time items. Drill not yet on site.

Its a good RNS because it's keeping us informed on the facts of where we are but as an investor you have to acknowledge that we have a few weeks yet before everything is in place and we have a spud date. Good for those of us that have the confidence that this will get to drill results but plenty of time to stay out if you aren't in yet.... unless there is a sudden rush on buy volume the mm's are able to find plenty of sells by just gently increasing the bid....

Crazy worrying about raising funds at this stage. People need to focus on whether they find helium. If they do these discussions are very academic v where the SP will be.

Worry about what funds they might need if they don’t find helium but don’t do it until after the drill otherwise you might as well get out now.

Cocbeans. I think the board/insiders can buy shares now ahead of drilling. They wouldn’t be able to sell ahead of drill completion. That way they have the same risk as the rest of us and can’t just sell on a spike ahead of drill outcomes.