Member Info for sittingduck11

I agree. And you could be right, there are many things that could scupper oils run, but ultimately I believe it will be temporary.

I have been "predicting" a new ATH on oil since early 2021 which is when I started buying Harbour (I bought Shell at £8, shame I sold at £18! amateur), but there is no time frame on oil, within a generation would be ideal. The same so called experts who were calling for $200 oil (which is a red flag in itself) are now calling for $50. But one thing I can say for certain, is that I am in oil and gas for my own reasons, this investment is all 100% my call and I have had no sway whatsoever from talking heads other than my own.

And lets me honest - Oil and Gas investing nowadays is a lonely place. Another good sign.

The world cannot function on $160 oil, or anything like that level. Learn from history, demand destruction occurs at $100-$120 and the invisible hand guides it back down...

Oil traded between $100 - $125 for 4 years between 2010 and 2014.... 4 years.

The world kept on turning and inflation stayed low.

As you said, learn from history.

The CRB index is at a 16 year high and oil is at 80. Oil is going much higher imo. Rigid beliefs that it can't go above x which are forged by the media is just one of the reason it will do exactly the opposite. Sooner or later.

But we'll see.

Bull flag break out on brent and wti monthly / weekly charts. IF it plays out - $160 target by 2028/29.

There are still gaps at £105 and $119 on brent weekly. Red bar gaps have never not filled.

Broker price targets are garbage.

Ding ding.

And because UK equities (with a few exceptions like RR) exists as trading instruments, not as long-term investments.

Now that's twaddle.

Mgb... obviously in hindsight it would have been great to sell at 530p, but ultimately the business has improved significantly since then. Our averages and holdings are not too dissimilar. So I don't know about you but until the earnings give me something to worry about or I feel oils bull market has run its course, 20% 30% up or down makes me believe this share is still consolidating while the business and earnings continue to grow. So I'll continue to buy.

I have a significant position in Harbour which dwarfs any other investment. I bought more shares last year, and have been buying heavily for 3 years. My average price is around 278p. Happy to collect the dividends while oil is out of favour.

Harbour Energy is a excellent business imo, with massive growth potential and excellent management. So while I have moments of frustration, they are short lived.

*** I'm super bullish on oil in the long term, and I know where its going, so its just a matter of patience.

I have a significant position in Harbour which dwarfs any other investment. I bought more shares last year, and have been buying heavily for 3 years. My average price is around 278p. Happy to collect the dividends while oil is out of favour.

Harbour Energy is a excellent business imo, with massive growth potential and excellent management. So while I have moments of frustration, they are short lived.

I'm super bullish on oil in ting, so its just a matter he long term, I know where its goof patience.

I can't remember the last time such an attractive looking bull flag formed on the daily Harbour chart (not that i give much regard to technicals over the fundamentals), so with the risk of looking like a numpty, which wouldn't be the first time, I am going to predict this flag plays out and we reach 292p by the end of January.

But, who knows. Lets hope it doesn't all sell off by lunch time.

Https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/20/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-scoops-up-occidental-and-other-stocks-during-sell-off.html

OXY are down 33% from their 2024 highs

HBR are down 27% from their 2024 highs

Do i buy more Harbour Energy down at these levels..... that's the question.

Yeah. Wouldn't touch Tullow with a barge pole in this environment.

Serious trouble* lol series :s

Tullow is a punt IMO. Massive debt (nearly 6 times its market cap), so if oil tanks, Tullow is in series trouble. Pays no dividend. However if oil goes on a run the upside could be significant.

It's not a well run business though imo, no growth, huge debt, low production, no dividend, multiple changes in management, unstable region of operations.

But that's just my take, what do i know. Oil spikes none of that will likely matter.

Stating the obvious - todays rally in oil mainly due to reports that China plan on loosening monetary policy from "prudent" to "moderately loose" for the first time in 14 years -

https://www.ft.com/content/7a9c963c-b1af-4c92-860e-f57dc546cf1f

If this turns out to be the case then we are back in business, oil, copper etc will potentially all be in for a long term bull market.

That being said, this wouldn't be the first time I've taken the bait on China and it could all be hot air.

As for the gap on the brent oil chart at $120 and WTI at $118 not being filled for record time.... I'm past caring. Sort of. Harbour are making plenty of dough at $70 brent.

The wait goes on.

Buy high sell low.

For all concerned - Wisdom is knowing how little we know.

Back to more relevant matters. Harbour deserves some credit this week, displaying resilience over the last few trading days. The bullish divergence on the weekly and daily are still in play for anyone who cares, oil is in the gutter (in the mind of investors) which might just signal a bottom is near, NatGas has woken up (new 12 month high yesterday), Mr Buffet has been selling like the clappers but has not sold one share of OXY (yet), which is down about 29% from 2024 highs, Harbour is down 22% in the same period. And in reality, at $72 Brent, Harbour should be doing just fine.

"Lets hope it doesn't all sell off by the end of the week" - Curse of the commentator

Hi Bonker

Please include the source link if possible.

And I am fully aware i'm clutching at straws..