Member Info for sittingduck11

Ahh okay... sm energy 3.2bn dollars, HBR is pounds. My mistake. Still they are very close

Just looking over SM Energy earnings. 3.2bn market cap.

2.7bn debt.

Approx 170k barrells per day.

485m fcf.

10.9 years reserves .

Harbour is literally twice the size in every aspect and yet is valued 400m less.

Is it all because of the WFT? Make it make sense anyone.

3.2bnboe, 19 years. Up from 6 years reserve. Am I missing something? That was always a big worry with Harbour. That is no longer an issue and the market doesn't care. For comparison, I believe Apache reserves are around the 900m mark. What's not adding up here? Aside from me.

Its been a tough week Stupmy. Really has taken it out of me.

And yet, on the one hand it's a week i want to forget. But on the other there were so many positives in that update. Increasing dividend, covered 2 times over at $70 brent. Imminent buybacks, plans for fairly aggressive debt repayment, again all at $70 brent. And 19 years of reserves! That's not far off OXY reserves number. Obviously some of you wizz kids have dissected the results to find problems, which i absolutely appreciate btw.

But to me all that's really happened is the fundamentals just got a whole lot better and the share price has tanked. So either there is some sort of ominous foul play going on. Or the shares are on sale.

The best time to buy shares always feels like the worst time to buy. Problem is there's no telling how much worse things can get.

Harbour obviously didn't.

Oil stocks ripping today.

27th Jan - "Sell offs like these are about as pleasant as dental surgery. But we've been here before. The oil price could grant us a reprieve.

The main concern for me is the enormous head and shoulders pattern, which suggests 160p. But these are just patterns on a chart and may mean nothing."

Still in play....

Just skimming through these on the train.

But from a fundamental standpoint these results look very good.

3 2bn. 19 years. Fan bloody tastic.

Maybe i'm clutching at straws -

But the 2 companies that are "closest" to us as per Harbours presentation.

Aker BP - Down 29% from 24 high

Apache - Down 50% from 24 high

Harbour - Down 36% from 24 high

Harbour seems to be behaving like its closest peers.

Granted - god only knows how things will look this time tomorrow.

I think Berkshires common stock average price on OXY is around $47

I believe Carlos Slim has invested around $1bn in 2024 in Talos and PBF Energy in the US, which dwarfs his Harbour investment, both if which are down more than HBR from their 24 highs.

Lets hope he doesn't get cold feet.

A brutal sell off - but it's not Harbour specific. Every oil and gas company is getting slapped.

I don't really get the big deal about an improved credit rating - far better to have no debt and not need credit than to have $4billion of debt and a good credit rating.

Impossible to make any meaningful sort of acquisition and grow, without taking on debt.

Talos and PBF both reported recently and both reported losses, so unless Slim is happy to throw his money away, he must be bullish about future prospects -

PBF - https://investors.pbfenergy.com/news/news-details/2025/PBF-Energy-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2024-Results-Declares-Dividend-of-0.275-per-Share/default.aspx

Talos - https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/talos-energy-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-operational-and-financial-results-302386580.html

OXY and certainly BP earnings recently weren't great either.

Slim clearly isn't worried.

He's been buying heavily into Talos who are down 38% from 2024 high and PBF Energy who are down 68% from 2024 high. He topped up Harbour (down 32% from 2024 high) position in October, and has been buying more PBF in the last few days.

On top of that Buffett is selling down nearly everything except OXY (down 32% from 24 high) which he is still buying, and Elliott Investment Management, one of the largest activist funds in the world, have just taken a 5% stake in BP (down 20% from 24 high).

I just wanted to gauge the sentiment. Would you lot mind telling me, if you had to hazard a guess, how LOW you think the Brent Oil price will go this year? Just what comes to mind. Thank you in advance.

I think I might give that a watch.

42 and counting

Does anyone know when we can expect next dividend payment?

Declaration date - 06 Mar 2025 (Thu)

Ex-div date - 10 Apr 2025 (Thu)

Pay date - 21 May 2025 (Wed)

All seems quite uncertain at present. However, it is not in Russia's interest to flood the market with oil. Nor is it in the interest of OPEC or the US producers, or any oil producer for that matter. If the price falls below $60 then production across the world will be cut. All this drill baby drill talk is fantasy imho, there is no way these company's are going to ramp up production when the oil price is this low. It's bonkers to suggest they will tbh, why would they?

All the oil majors have just reported a steep drop in profits compared with last year, BPs Q4 earnings were the worst since 2020. Chevron are laying off 20% of their work force. Hardly the type of landscape for a production increase.

End of the war will invariably have an impact, and any possible recession fears becoming reality, but they will be met with production cuts imo. But who knows..