Member Info for Simplyme

Bad first - did not reach our forecast but just under, and no news on DHSC or indeed details on how we done in other markets.
Good - over £100m in cash, still good profit margin and most importantly moving a lot of our sales away from UK market so not all of our eggs in one basket. Around £13m in non Covid sales and this is expected to increase. COVID sales still to be over £40m next year so would expect around £55m revenue next year.
Overall this does not reflect in current sp or market value so should be increase today but more importantly small glimpse of non vivid future is in train so expect small increases in sp going forward

Yes but don’t be lazy in future as on their own website
https://www.tullowoil.com/investors/

Oil over $85, debt reducing every day, over 50000 bopd and huge fcf - yet sp around 20p! End of year - possible dividend announced (dependant on Poo) but limited risks to even worry about and decent interest rates on current debt? As victor muldrew would say …….I can’t believe it!!! Do fundamentals not matter any more?

We all agree that fcf will be over $700m this year worst case scenario if oil stays over $85 (higher even better and this includes our hedges) So take that away from debt and allowing the fact that some debt is usually good ($500m) then one good year and no matter what metric you use we could in theory give a dividend higher than current sp just next year! So all we need is one decent year for a major rerate or if not pay a dividend higher than our current sp is possible every year. Looks a no brainer to me!

If guessing £106.8m and also sp after results are out at cop of 427p

Let me know if my bid is allowed - 34.1 and happy to put the prize up next year

Same here - lth and read board most days! Don’t want any prize but my guess would be 34.1

Am invested and just about at break even. Agree more testing and note this interesting article
https://www.cityam.com/from-covid-curse-to-blessing-coronavirus-experts-relief-grows-as-extremely-mild-omicron-variant-rapidly-exterminates-much-more-deadly-delta-mutation/
Agree testing will increase short term and that hopefully DHSC will be resolved soon (favourably) which will boost the sp. Diagnostics will be here forever and would welcome some forward plans from company and some narrative on current situation and impact for novaculite and our revenue streams! Is this too much to give?

433p

Why any concern? Oil over $80 and production even reduced will give massive fcf. With oil going only one way short term as supply stays reduced , global and us oil stocks continue to be under pressure and the supply is not coming back overnight but air travel is opening up and demand is going up. Aware Covid is not away but living with it is now happening and the impacts are much reduced.so why are people worried as even worst case scenario we will be a huge money maker. Agree dividends/ buy backs and even acquisitions can be considered to move sp and do believe they are coming. Sp will react accordingly and I have no concerns it will be positive

Agree - at $80 we are making loads fcf and just another 12 months of this will be fantastic no matter what - even if kraken does not work perfectly. So as long as Poo stays over $70 - no worries. Patience is a virtue, I dont have it when not sure but am happy to wait here

Quick query - kosmos trading update today - I have not researched but why’s re they valued so high compared to enquest? Production similar; their debt higher and fcf much lower - can someone tell me what I am missing? Apologies as I could research more but just wanted an easier answer?

Disagree chilling as short term enquest with fcf will soon be virtually debt free (12 months) and even if ran into ground could pay substantial dividends if POO stays where it is for a few years! The question we all need to ask is the POO sustainable over the next few years and all I get is yes and it may be at even higher price! Irrespective of anything else if POO stays where it is we will get the 60p party either by dividends or sp within 3 years - I can’t see any other outcome really!

I look at the figures, the fcf now and even at lower OP and I keep coming to the same conclusion that we are becoming a cash cow! By next year there is no reason why a dividend cannot be considered and there is NO way that the so will not be significantly higher as we will have limited debt and money flowing into the coffers. Not worried about the ups and downs at the moment as the fundament are so strong - there is very small risk here but easy upside and I think next year will be the big change in sentiment as money talks

Bought some more - does not matter as they will strike black gold in one of them by the law of averages!! Patience is a virtue

Hi kamrat - thanks for the figures again and they fill me with joy! When we complete GE this will be a money maker and as others have already said perhaps a divi announced in about 9 months. However I note with the divi payout and also with production figures and Poo just staying at $70 we could reach the magical 60p within 12 months for the party (actual could be higher) but the really good news is that in most scenarios if we keep Poo prices at average $70 with Ge we are on to a sure fire winner! C’mon the eagle has landed any day soon

The market will notice when oil is struck! The good news is that to us all it does not matter that much as I would assume we are holding - just allows us to buy cheap at the moment GLA lth

As others stated $80 oil in the real world is not as high as previous (inflation erodes spending power). Hence I would actually state that a price range if $70-$90 is easily sustainable to the general public- geez we pay £1000 for a phone now which would fill most peoples car for 3-4 months! We keep stating older prices but inflation brings down the real value - the big difference now is we are more efficient at getting oil out the ground! I see prices staying around here or higher for a few months and even at these prices they are affordable in the long run.

Just bought some more - not a huge amount by my standards but enough. I like others see this as a huge derisk and hope they hit something! As I do have lots more in oilers this is more based on the likelihood of a hit! On 30 wells I would expect 5!

Alternatively- looking in reverse for 1 find - 16.4m barrels at 25 years is 656000 barrels per year at say $35 dollars profit is $20 m per year profit or 20p every year dividend!! I think 80p per share would be conservative.