Member Info for Simplyme

think what is best case/worst case and most likely scenario?

Best case - war ends soon, sanctions lifted - back to normal and £5 sp (or more)
Worst case - war goes on for years, company gets sanctioned more and potentially goes bust (can't actually work out this scenario as we would move debt/exchanges to ensure we complied).
Likely scenario - war ends (when?), sanctions go on for a few more months and then ease off (but how far and what sectors?) - still better off than now and perhaps £3sp.

The way I see it in worst case sceanrio we would move exchanges and make less money - world still needs steel (and coal) and this will not change for many years. Lots of exchanges as options (most a lot friendlier) but will come at a cost to us all so maybe a reduced SP.

Even in worst case this will be worth northwards of £2 and I would expect this to happen if the war drags on.

So if I was invested here at under £2 - no major issues.
Will we go bust - how? We pay and move (may be costly) but we will not go bust and may not be as profitable in future.
So patience is all that is required and I would expect EVR if things seem to be moving to a stalemate to make moves to protect their business. Russia themselves would not want to lose this income/jobs and would want it to keep going (almost to ensure that sanctions do not seem to be an impact) - look at POF as an example.

Anyway GLA and DYOR

So what has changed - still suspended/ sanctioned and we will have a few months minimum to hopefully come to an agreement on ceasefire before there are major impacts. Miss a few payments/ no audit is fine for a few months and no company instantly gets made bankrupt. Not ideal but if in the next few months everything gets sorted out we should be fine. People like the BOD and RA are all shareholders as well and will not want to be left with nothing and will make sure it does not happen. They can relist, get taken over, come to agreements with various parties and worst case scenario perhaps get sold cheap or split assets but that would likely still be above the current price! It is a risk but could still come good but is not guaranteed. GLA and hopefully soon there will be peace for a number of reasons but mainly to stop the senseless loss of lives

Good to see coal and steel companies doing really well - pity there isn’t one to trade in the lse at present - lol!! As a holder here it looks good for when we are trading again and agree rasp seems to be doing really well and think we will easily rise significantly on trading resuming - gla

Raspadskaya Group amalgamates a group of coal mining and enrichment facilities located in the Kemerovo region of Russia and the Republic of Tuva: 8 mines, 2 open pits, 3 washing plants, specialized support enterprises. It is a part of EVRAZ, a major vertically integrated metals and mining company.

From their last operations update

Rasp near £3bn value on its own - looks good for Evr holders - simply a waiting game which I am content with :)

Although the imposition of international sanctions against Russia and the restrictions imposed by Russia are creating certain frictions in supply, logistics and financial flows, to date there has been no material direct impact on day-to-day operations, trading or the financial position of EVRAZ. The Company will continue to keep EVRAZ shareholders updated in accordance with its legal and regulatory obligations.

no major impact since no rns stating so and therefore I am positive

Expected rns - as most metal stocks haven’t- wish I knew if it is because the sanctions are or are not working? I actually hope they are doing well but we will have to wait and see (which I personally suspect results are good and they do want to shout it too loud!) thoughts anyone?

up on moscow - up 4%

The good news is that if there is a gap in market then if money to be made it will get filled!! So if not possible at moment it would be in future - money talks

Just bought my isa at 220p- average still under the price now and can’t believe the drop! If anything due to dividends not getting paid, this is good news for LTHs - not paying it and saving money. Much more options now and a good buffer to pay debt for future. Black rock with 10% will be smiling

Why look negative - look with balance at all times! Price is low and once it reopens (likely as name a strong company that shut down due to sanctions that is still selling and making a profit?) This company is making good ones, profits will rise with gold and high inflation is around the corner! The dividends at present would be over 100%! Name one other company that has this divi potential payout! We will get money out just a waiting game at present DYOR

Let’s put things in perspective- the divi at present is over 100% and as such there will be loads of people wanting a slice . 500p gives a divi still higher than most and look at other steel producers- all up and raking the cash in . 500p is not a dream - if suspension lifted with the divi it will reach 500 minimum. The divi will drive the price with 20% returns most won’t care about Russian connections as we are all want a great return - it is that simple. No fears but DYOR

https://www.moex.com/n45650/?nt=200
Not poly or Pog though - see link. 10 international companies not trading

Although Moscow stock exchange opens on Monday this does not cover poly (or Pog) https://www.moex.com/n45650/?nt=200
As you will see from the link 10 international stocks are not being traded which includes these two

Basically if you held throughout this period with/without RASP you ae not diluted - it si exactly the same that you end up with and the value is still in the company (sorry very long winded before)

@ Blacksteel - Net impact of before/after would be zero still to all shareholders - if you bought after the date, you are simply buying at a price that the market agreed and people who sold agreed the price same asany other time; same as any share that goes up and down and no one forced them to sell before they received the RASP rights. Just like the dividend payment the assets simply go back to the shareholders and if you held you gain/lose nothing. If you sell you can gain/lose etc. I can't see your point at all except that things change and there are percevied winners and losers - same if the company goes bankrupt the ones who sold would have got the better deal!!

The Russian government made a $117mn payment on two of its dollar-denominated government bonds last week, the process took longer than usual as banks involved in the payment chain sought assurances from US authorities that they were able to handle the cash. I see the same issue here - will be paid but just takes longer and not as straightforward. The beauty of EVRAZ is that they have large workforces in USA and Canada and no matter what they will not want them impacted which means business will continue. no way UK will wish to upset the USA

p.s. top tip - you don't pay stamp duty on Petrofac buying/selling either - it is because they are based in Jersey :) Does that make then Russian? I am sure they got prosecuted recently for shady dealing by the UK - must be because they fall under their jurisdiction same as .........Poly!! and that is the UK jurisdiction

yes jersey based same as Petrofac - they must be Russian too - do make me laugh. They wil be getting suspended/sanctioned next?

Why worry? No matter what happens I can’t se a situation where the hare is not worth more then £2! Delist but then have to go to another marker - no issue as long as you can trade! No matter what market with their assets and dividends I can’t see anything but he so rising and that is worst case! Stay on lse, keep head down, ceasefire and wait 6 months and at least £3 and yes being conservative. Even if Russia seized assets
Kashakstan assets worth more than current price so again no worries - patience is a virtue GLA dyor