Member Info for Simplyme

All to do with not being able to buy and forced sales on a few accounts who did not transfer or certified their shares. In a few days once all on aix and after the redom and trading update the shares should once again be with a lot more- just short term fluctuations at present (all downward most likely) until shares are delisted

Once we redom we can use the pox in Russia - no worries over sanctions - no Kazakh listed business has been sanctioned

The big difference for the sp is that we know the figures now and the impact of Ukraine on operations. Aisc has risen but stabilised now and logistics, spares etc. all sorted. With gold up and rouble weakened even the kaz aspect is worth much more and there will be a huge chunk of debt paid and risk is diminishing hugely. Indeed the risk reward is definitely in favour at moment and even under £4 is still good value. Roll on the second to confirm the positive news

On sp after results - I expect a constant slow rise to 290p before results and then a 20% rise which gives 348p as closing sp on results day (and yes my shares are in an isa) GLASH Gold around $2060 and 80 roubles to $

Looking forward to 2nd May for update - can it see it being very positive with rouble weak and gold strong! Hopefully gold will be at an all time high and the inventory build up has been sold- worst case I still see a positive update but interesting to see how much debt will have reduced due to foreign exchange rates and also selling of gold (if they give this info)

Agree that all looking great for poly at present on operational aspects - working capital will be much less as we bought up excess stock last year, gold is averaging over 1900 for the year so far and could keep over 2000 for rest of year so 2000 average for year possible. Rouble weakening is good news as debt decreases in real terms and operating costs also decrease. I see the $2.4 bn debt halving this year ($200m due to foreign exchange, $200m for inventory stockpile and $800m via operational delivery). Higher profits again due to price gold/ weakens rouble as aisc should reduce too. All in can’t see anything but a great year if the rouble and price of gold stay where they are! Glash.

Page 18 (eighteen) out of 70 if you wish to check. Spelt out the 18 into English as numbers are not your strong point.

As some people cannot understand simple pie charts it also states in the accounts the following which relates to the pie chart: Foreign exchange
The Group’s revenue and over 64% of borrowings are denoted in US Dollars, while the majority of the Group’s operational costs are denoted in Russian Rouble and Kazakh Tenge. As a result, changes in exchange rates affected the Company’s financial results and performance.
The global economy continued post-pandemic recovery, while a restart of the worldwide supply chain saw soaring demand for commodities, and consumer and industrial goods. In addition to demand-pull factors, ongoing geopolitical tension and sanctions on Russian fuel contributed to elevated energy prices.
Although economic sanctions were implemented against Russia, the average annual Rouble rate stood firm at 68.6 RUB/$ (2021: 73.7 RUB/$) due to contracted demand for the hard currency, with a slight fall to 70.3 RUB/$ at the end of the year. This had a negative impact on the mining sector, resulting in a higher Dollar value for Rouble- denominated operating costs.
Consistent geopolitical tension within the CIS region, the strengthening of the Dollar, and a decline in Kazakhstani oil production contributed to a weak average tenge of 461 KZT/$ (2021: 426 KZT/$), closing the year at 463 KZT/$.
Inflation peaked at 12% in Russia and a record 20% in Kazakhstan, intensifying pressure on costs.

Yes some people do indeed look silly. Only 64% of borrowings are in dollars - simple English easier to understand than the pie chart!!

https://www.polymetalinternational.com/upload/ib/1/23-03-21/2023_03_16_Financial_results_2022.pdf
Page 15 out of 19 shows how much is in roubles - amazed how some regular posters know so little about the company or even read their financial statements - says it all I suppose but 28% is roubles! In dividend payments -obviously having the money to pay is more important than Redom or at least equally as without having the cash it is irrelevant where we are. Others factors could make redom less important such as peace but cash is king. Please keep up with life and reality

Just doing some simple maths - poly had $2.4bn net debt. This is 30% in roubles which with the rouble weakening at present is saving around $250m, so just over $2.1bn debt. Slightly higher interest to pay so will say $2.2bn for ease. $200m of excess inventory sold so $2bn debt. With rouble weakened aisc should drop say to $1250 from $1350 and with gold at $2000 should give $750’per oz profit. Hence I see a position where poly can pay a decent divi and have under $1.5bn debt. All reliant on gold and rouble staying where they are GLASH

Poly won’t be making as much money as in the past at these prices as aisc of gold has went up by around $300- their new high for gold to make best profits would have to be nearer $2400 - still a good price at present and good margin. Still can see a scenario when we are under $1.5 bn debt and pay a divi this year - glash

I meant $25m per quarter

P.s. debt even of $2bn at 5%p.a. Is only $50m per quarter - not that significant in a company with at present expected revenue of well over $3bn per annum

Debt went up because of a lot of purchases of equipment and not selling inventory and the worse exchange rate. This will not be repeated. Interest has increased but is only around 5% so has increased but is offset as some debt is in roubles which when translated to dollars which is now much less (not rocket science!). It is simple maths and the update start of May will confirm- no fantasy world here, just arithmetic and accountancy skills

Debt is not as big an issue as it has also reduced due to exchange rate (debt is in $) so around $2bn due to current exchange rate which also gives them increased profit and fcf. If aisc is $1350 and price stays at $1950 or above we would be debt free in 3 years! (Caveat that aisc and rouble stay same over period and production also). As stated debt if $1.5bn is not a concern and will in my view be around $1.8bn at present with inventory sell off. 2nd half is always better so would expect us to be under $1.5bn by end of year - so debt at present is no concern irrespective of what others state.

So with gold at over $1950 and aisc of around $1350 for poly forecast, coupled with 78 roubles to the dollar and some inventory to sell in Q1, as in the words of Yazz - the only way is up! With production expected to be stable at 1.7m oz. And reduced costs for consumables then I can easily see if things stay steady that Poly will significantly reduce debt and pay out a small divi this financial yearGLASH - we deserve it! This should be very positive for sp irrespective and hopefully a peace dividend to put on top

Gold up - if averages over $2000 and rouble stays weak and inventory gets sold then we should easily make over $1bn profit wait AISC expected to be same as last year - around $1350. Easy hold for me this share at the moment

Good webcast - if rouble stays weak and gold rises no reasons not to pay a dividend - with rouble at 75 to $1 and gold over 1900 we are already in the sweet spot for this year- roll on next results as looking a bright future

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/designated-recognised-stock-exchanges-section-1005-income-tax-act-2007/designated-recognised-stock-exchanges-section-1005-income-tax-act-2007-v3
It states on gov uk that ISA is fine if shares are in a recognised stock exchange and AIX is classified as fine - see attachment

Actually Q4 we produce the most gold (around 500 out of yearly 1.7m) so always a challenge to sell so much. On a positive we paid down 0.4bn debt and still have a large inventory at higher gold prices (w1 has worst production due to harder worker conditions in winter) so most likely we sell inventory at higher price now with lower production in Q1. Overall the future will is good as inventory will ensure Q1 is very good with reduced output and will be a bumper quarter compared to normal. Dividend WILL be announced come March and we have moved (if required) - gla - this will rise today