focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
So when it costs $3.6m every day tolmount (before costs) is not running why are they not fixing it ASAP - and why not throwing everything at it? It is a much more major issue as personally this is making a huge difference to our sp and gas won’t stay this high forever!!
Actually I see it totally different - gas prices higher so oil will be used more to compensate; flights opening up as shown by US decision; massive draw tonight again in US supplies (around 7m); developed countries demand increasing and the only negative is China which I expect to be centrally supported and their growth to continue. Tapering likely to be delayed in USA and with GE about to complete I see a good run for the next few weeks. If there is also a cold winter then demand will continue to rise as will demand so oil is pretty safe. Agree slight concern on the domino impact from China but Asia get things all the time- avian flu; swine flu etc which never impact the rest of the world and this won’t either. Think we are fine for a couple of months yet GLA
Running through the fundamentals of enquest I for once have no major concerns. Once GE completes and if oil stays above $65 (yes $65) we will have massive fcf and with the last few months of higher POO the future is looking very bright! Once GE completes I don’t think we have any other concerns except working out when dividends will come and the sp re- rates!! Not worried about short term movements GLA
Yes seems real but in total is only around $15,000,000 so although not great is not that material in the grand scheme of things. If production is increased in Malaysia then it will soon be covered!! Indeed going through the figures if $75 Poo is maintained and GE completed I can see dividends next year also!! Gla
The cash was before paying for the bonds and with increased oil for august - but about $20m per month going by current Poo and reduced output is correct. And yes CB if Poo and production stay solid will be paid early even with other costs to be accounted for
Don’t think so - it has come on slower than expected but always has to come back! There will be a significant draw next week and if there is a cold winter coupled with OPEC+ not being able to ramp up supplies (as it seems to not be that easy for some of them) the concern is supply not meeting demand, inflation, growth slowing etc Hence as stated a few times, steady but slow is desired and we actually only want $80 tops in my view but sustained not boom then bust! Let’s hope ge gets signed, $75-80 oil sustained for a few months and then re- evaluate.
Another way of reading this for H1 - take the worse scenario and total costs for the DHSC scenarios and the company still is making a profit. Writing of ALL inventory (can’t do that again), and getting NO revenue from DHSC - that despite all of that and the huge costs of this the company made a small profit. For H2 they will make a large profit as none of the negatives can be included as all accounted for! So although not good for now - going forward it is a clean slate with only uoside. The £75m will grow higher and the company even in a worst case scenario is profitable
$75 Poo hit as predicted this week. The sp now to hit 24p! Agree with all that a rise in production (either existing/ new assets) would be desirable but must admit with the fcf, good hedging, good price per barrel that maintaining current production with GE on top would be great and just with this would expect around 50p (not the 60p party yet!). We look good comparable to debt if other oilers and fcf - looking good no matter what happens next if prices stay strong!! Gla but not needed
A wise man said on the 8th September and when everyone was worried about the retrace and Poo:
Don’t know why anybody is concerned? The draw tonight and next week will be huge and oil price will go to $75 and the so back to 24p- no concerns. GE complete and then another slight increase- as said before 30p before Christmas and if wrong quote me!!GLA
Still see this position happening this week as stated
On undervalued - wte I think could take the crown and less risk. Was in hur before - gla - not a shareholder now
Was in hur but disagree it is highest reward - think wte has potential to multibagger more and has was risk DYOR - I am no longer a shareholder but gla
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/world-top-oil-guzzlers-surpass-210000936.html
Yep - only way is up - demand is rising faster than supply. US up, China up and India up - the big 3 - start polishing….,,..
Don’t know why anybody is concerned? The draw tonight and next week will be huge and oil price will go to $75 and the so back to 24p- no concerns. GE complete and then another slight increase- as said before 30p before Christmas and if wrong quote me!!GLA
Agree - just highlighting that as a possibility. Then if we were debt free and paying dividends we could if oil stayed the same price probably pay a yearly dividend equivalent to our market cap (based on simply running down our business). Agree some debt is good for maintaining/adding production and growing the business but simply demonstrating that the situation here within 12 months could be very interesting and if we simply ran it into the ground would still earn multiples of the current sp in dividends!!
Or an alternative - oil goes up by another $10, production slightly better than you state and we are debt free in just over 12 months with a dividend ready to be paid! That is not far from reality either especially the oil being higher priced as demand comes back faster than anticipated as supply is still lagging.
Doubt there will be any offer - or acceptance of any stupid bid as they are still turning the company around and I am confident that the next update will be very positive and perhaps (whisper it) a return to growth!! The company is making good money, good FCF with no debt issues for years so will keep growing slowly and paying good dividends. Unless being bought for breaking up then I see limited value to most companies and once on o e system the synergies will
Improve and a more rapid rerate. I expect around £6 by Christmas but will depend a lot on the trading update