Member Info for Simplyme

It has been posted previously actually by Phoebus - Assuming Sapote is 1,300 MMB gross as mentioned previously, WTE's share is 16.4 MMB which equates to over 40p per share at $5 per barrel. The three developments so far on Stabroek have breakevens of $25-$35 as barrel, which is excellent and makes the discovery more valuable. my figures are pretty similar although I think this is actually conservative as well. 2 finds of this size equates to 80p, 3 to 120p. However with Poo at $75 at present these figures are actually underestimating and if oil rises much higher!

Let’s be honest - out of 13 we should hope to get 2 or 3 commercial and if you work out the sp based on large discoveries it would be 80-120p (being conservative). Agree one good hit is all that is needed and unlikely all to be dusters so the way I see it is that I will get a 800-1200% return if I hold for 2 years. I could get nothing but the risk- reward analysis looks very good

Has play should be gas play!!

Hi Kraken - they made tiny profit and have hedged poorly in my view. Have issues same as all oilers but tolmount their major has play is behind schedule and they have up sea lion. yes can see a brighter future but can understand with their fcf, dip in productions and major developments behind schedule understand why it dipped.

Yes - but if they were always correct then no one would ever lose money!! But we do. So yes professionals don’t always get it right and yes they lose money at times too!

Agree 30th sept also - and a 7% rise on the day too just to make it more interesting! And yes I did state a 7m draw on oil as well for this week (which was under actual when you add the draw and then add the draw in Cushing)

Hi simply arrogant- I mean soder - thanks for the update. A small amount of knowledge can indeed be dangerous in small minded people. Less attitude would be welcomed as no need for this. The point is it should have been finished and is behind schedule irrespective of the model and as a result we are all missing out on substantial profits. And I doubt their hedging has been great either but this should not be hedged at low prices and is a significant value once on board.

So when it costs $3.6m every day tolmount (before costs) is not running why are they not fixing it ASAP - and why not throwing everything at it? It is a much more major issue as personally this is making a huge difference to our sp and gas won’t stay this high forever!!

Actually I see it totally different - gas prices higher so oil will be used more to compensate; flights opening up as shown by US decision; massive draw tonight again in US supplies (around 7m); developed countries demand increasing and the only negative is China which I expect to be centrally supported and their growth to continue. Tapering likely to be delayed in USA and with GE about to complete I see a good run for the next few weeks. If there is also a cold winter then demand will continue to rise as will demand so oil is pretty safe. Agree slight concern on the domino impact from China but Asia get things all the time- avian flu; swine flu etc which never impact the rest of the world and this won’t either. Think we are fine for a couple of months yet GLA

Running through the fundamentals of enquest I for once have no major concerns. Once GE completes and if oil stays above $65 (yes $65) we will have massive fcf and with the last few months of higher POO the future is looking very bright! Once GE completes I don’t think we have any other concerns except working out when dividends will come and the sp re- rates!! Not worried about short term movements GLA

Yes seems real but in total is only around $15,000,000 so although not great is not that material in the grand scheme of things. If production is increased in Malaysia then it will soon be covered!! Indeed going through the figures if $75 Poo is maintained and GE completed I can see dividends next year also!! Gla

The cash was before paying for the bonds and with increased oil for august - but about $20m per month going by current Poo and reduced output is correct. And yes CB if Poo and production stay solid will be paid early even with other costs to be accounted for

Actually hope OPEC do adjust as do not want shale also coming back and supply being more than demand - hence have to keep it capped until full demand comes back in my view

Don’t think so - it has come on slower than expected but always has to come back! There will be a significant draw next week and if there is a cold winter coupled with OPEC+ not being able to ramp up supplies (as it seems to not be that easy for some of them) the concern is supply not meeting demand, inflation, growth slowing etc Hence as stated a few times, steady but slow is desired and we actually only want $80 tops in my view but sustained not boom then bust! Let’s hope ge gets signed, $75-80 oil sustained for a few months and then re- evaluate.

Another way of reading this for H1 - take the worse scenario and total costs for the DHSC scenarios and the company still is making a profit. Writing of ALL inventory (can’t do that again), and getting NO revenue from DHSC - that despite all of that and the huge costs of this the company made a small profit. For H2 they will make a large profit as none of the negatives can be included as all accounted for! So although not good for now - going forward it is a clean slate with only uoside. The £75m will grow higher and the company even in a worst case scenario is profitable

$75 Poo hit as predicted this week. The sp now to hit 24p! Agree with all that a rise in production (either existing/ new assets) would be desirable but must admit with the fcf, good hedging, good price per barrel that maintaining current production with GE on top would be great and just with this would expect around 50p (not the 60p party yet!). We look good comparable to debt if other oilers and fcf - looking good no matter what happens next if prices stay strong!! Gla but not needed

A wise man said on the 8th September and when everyone was worried about the retrace and Poo:

Don’t know why anybody is concerned? The draw tonight and next week will be huge and oil price will go to $75 and the so back to 24p- no concerns. GE complete and then another slight increase- as said before 30p before Christmas and if wrong quote me!!GLA

Still see this position happening this week as stated

On undervalued - wte I think could take the crown and less risk. Was in hur before - gla - not a shareholder now

Was in hur but disagree it is highest reward - think wte has potential to multibagger more and has was risk DYOR - I am no longer a shareholder but gla

And Kraken will still be crying!!!