Member Info for Simms45

Based on past experience where the spread is almost 10% it tells me liquidity is very low. when the price was on the floor at 34.5 last month you could buy and sell near this price. Could be a legup on the way.

As frustrating as it might be supply and demand dictates the price, although sometimes you need to question that when yesterday £300k were buys and the price does not move a great deal but this morning there was about £40k of sells and this caused the price to drop 3.5p. You often question if someone is manipulating the price or looking to pickup more shares at a low price. I have been here before with low liquidity stocks and once these tree shakes have shed the low risk tolerance shareholders, who are not in for the final prize or playing the market to bag more, hopefully the HODL variety will stick around. You certainly will not see MC or Ross Beatty selling and i suspect we will see positive momentum at the start of September when the holidays are over and people do their research and MC gets the roadshow moving. At least it gives time for others to top-up where they can. It is certainly true there is still a few risks outstanding that Mark needs to address but i suspect given 11 years have passed MC will have done a lot of the preparation on a number of these and MC owes his longstanding shareholders a great deal to have waited so long so i hope he will come out all gones a blazing from his summer hideaway.

All trades today only add up to £220k worth but rise is now 18%. This has a long way to go, even today as volume rises. Lets see how the day unfolds and news hits the canadian markets. This was 60p back in March on expectations of permits but before trouble. I can see this share hitting the previous 3 month high.

Given the entire company is worth a measly £30m today you can today predict a net £50m profit per year once this mine is operating in the low base case scenario. Therefore people buying stock today should get back dividends more in a single year than the stock price you pay today. This might be 3 years away to full operation but you do not need to be a rocket scientist to know this. Personally i think the gold price will be a lot higher and since the operating cost is relatively fixed we have a leverage bet also on the price of gold so that profit can easily double on relatively small movements of just 10%. The moons are aligning for a bit of a global correction and gold will be one safe havens. My view is do not buy the gold, buy the goldmine.

i suspect this share is going to carry on riding as we have the Toronto Exchange that will finally wake up and B2Gold and other investors will no doubt be taking a slide rule over the stock.

Ahead of schedule we got our permit :)

Would not want to be on the sidelines today.

We have lift off and with a good wind this share will be one of the best to own over the next few years as we head to full production.

Yes. I think most of the ducks are now aligned in the right direction. Small fly in the ointment is geo political aspects but MC noted in the video it had quieted down so he probably knows better and impact on B2Gold is small. Certainly whatever the government in power they will be wanting to try and show it is business as usual and that looks to be very much the case.

If those permits can be issued within a month then this share price is likely to set a new high and the news will reverberate around the Canadian investors so i suspect we might start to see a lot more traction from Canada when this happens That is no bad thing that people are not paying too much attention so investors this side of the pond can make sure purchases at leisure.

The permit now almost appears in sight. No doubt it might take a bit longer to get the signature of Ortega but but correct me if im wrong but there is almost £1-2bn in clean profit over the lifetime of the permit license. On the current £30m valuation the yield is off the scale. We are not likely to see any cashflow for a few years but in the grander scheme of things we are tantilisingly closer. There is the small matter of borrowing $120m but in reality the charge over the mine will probably settle the banking risk team, even if the georisk is not ideal. MC has completely dragged this to unprecedented levels but it looks we are close. If at 80k production we can see a clear $80m profit then your looking at a $1bn valuation once we are up and running.

it is good to see that finally MC has got those extra questions into the ministry and that from previous discussion the delay was actually engineers not being able to access La India because of roadblocks and that the ministry is functioning reasonably well given MC has been in communication and meeting with them in the past few weeks. obviously I am sure there is a fair amount of disruption to ministers.

https://www.ii.co.uk/discussion/t/june-permits/1139297/3

I think the government want to try and put forward that it is business as usual, even if it is clearly not. Given the proposed 1,000 extra jobs and $120m investment the country needs jobs and one of the main aims of the opposition is actually to make the country more pro business than it is as Ortega has been very slow on that front or takes his slice on the way through. The impact of this is probably that Ortega could start to push out a range of pro business job creation exercises to try and win back his supporters alongside a freeing up of the institutions. If the government changes they are pro business so they will be keen to see La India operating so Ortega could take the view of using these sort of positive changes to show it his government is operating. I have a feeling the permit will be forthcoming as Ortega stands to benefit from signing the permit license, although he could do with exiting when the opposition come up with some opposition party that could govern.

Sorry for doubting but reading this another way maybe MC is looking to be seen as openly critical of Ortega so as not to be seen as part of the old guard. who knows. I would be more interested for him to confirm the sort of timeline he thinks the permits might be signed off and that he sent in his answers to questions by May 31st or earlier. He stated that after the technical sign-off, which i assume is largely done, that there is a public consultation and then a signing ceremony with Ortega and his minister. Do we know how long the public consultation might be? How long is it generally as consultations in my book can be quite long periods of time? The big question is whether Ortega will be doing any signing anytime soon. maybe MC can catch him on the way out the door as long as Ortega did not read his remarks :) Something tells me Ortega is the type of character that will stick around a lot longer than we think and while i see any government in office being pro generating much needed tax revenues and Condor will come good are we talking weeks, months or longer.

I do find it hard to believe that Mark Child shared this very view? As chairman of Condor, who is directly negotiating with Ortega and his ministers on the shareholders behalf, to openly use such language is highly irregular and i would say improbable. He should, as a businessman, stay neutral as his aim is to secure the permit and advance logistical challenges. to openly say Ortega is over is not the best action on any front and he would appear to know more than anyone else on government affairs. do you have more proof Frenchie38 where this came from?