Member Info for Simms45

Its been very sticky for a few weeks at 25p and we have just dipped below the placing price. its odd as most orders today were actually buys so i suspect the MMs are working for a seller and drip feeding these into market and suspect today to speed up sell they lowered the target price to 24p. Hopefully the seller will pass but great opportunity for the moderately brave to pick up some gold at ridiculous low prices if only we can get the toll tefining deal done. keeping a close eye on as political issues in Nicaragua are improving so while far from ideal we are moving somewhat forward.

IFC have sold £135k of shares which is more a political gesture than anything but also bring them below 5%. Given the notification this will conclude the sale as the IPC will be sticking now. I suspect the stickiness at 25p should be the end. IPC will have sold at a hefty loss of around 60% so good news for other shareholders who have been picking up cheap stock.

Gold companies are valued more based on net cash as that is difference between gold price and AISC. Basically thats the profit. MC has always pushed a low AISC and that matters. The issue with HUM has been its high AISC so at some points its costs are more than the gold found. on a top line basis ounzes produced are similar although HUM are actually in production so CNR is someway off but HUM costs are stubbornly high. If gold continues to rise or at least not fall below 1300 and most indicators point to a contined rise in gold prices (recession/geo politics/dollar) so if MC can come in under $800 AISC it will have an impact on net cash and 10 x on net cashflow is comparable. HUM has tight margins for one reason or another. It will be very interesting what deal MC can agree on toll refining as that will give us something to work up from.

Its always good to remind ourselves that B2gold generates $450m of cashflow but market cap today is $4bn. Condor is valued at $19m all in. If we get to actually output 80k ounzes at the AISC basis anywhere shy of $800 on the basis of B2gold we should be valued closer to $400m. It sounds large but there is a possible multiple of 21 if we get there. I would be happy if we just get back to 50p+ thiss year but there is a big return if MC can not only deliver on the toll refining but can actually deliver the mine to maximise revenue. MC is looking at 120k ounzes so that would take comparable to 30 times today market cap. Clearly its not without dilution or political risk but its a nice potential upside and even anything remotely in the multiples should be welcome.

Lets get some cashflow going through the books and everything will come together nicely. Given the cost of transport and the need to generate positive news flow i would hope we will run with the low hanging fruit and ideally the more grams per tonne in my view the better to make it worth everyones while. Having 2.4m ounzes or whatever in the ground does not feel as good as millions in the bank. Remember 2.4m ounzes is $3bn worth if it was all dug up and MC talks of 5m ounze district. . It will also make B2G hopefully salivate and start more dialogue with MC who after 10 tortuous years must be looking to tie this one up over the next couple of years. This share has seen a steady downward trend for 10 years and thats a long time without generating cash. Investors lose the will to live and time is up for MC to stop dithering. We have an enormous tax loss worth considerably more than we are worth today without a gold mine. only thing holding up real progress is real cash generation and we are very close and if and when that happens i cant really see this stock looking back. Whoever is in government will benefit from the tax royalties off the top and government are desperate to create jobs and tax revenue to get country firing.

Price has softened this morning so took opportunity to buy another 3 tranches of 30k today at 25.9 close to the recent share placement so hopefully that will come good in the medium term. Roll on the news flow as 10 years of exploring i hope is coming to an end and some production is in sight. Interesting on the last video MC started to say $100m for the mine development so that is down from $120m so looks like his capex plans might also be down, if we ever get that far asB2Gold must surely be planning to use the toll refining to make sure the gold grade is good and then make an offer.

Just need to bear in mind MC was conservatively talking 10/20/30k ounzes using toll refining. However i suspect it is going to be based on excess capacity and if these mines make more money from toll refining Condor gold than their own. The grades of La India are over 4x better apparently so there is every chance that the base case of what MC put forward could rise if the financials all work out. Hopefully in 6 months we can all look back and laugh how cheap Condor was and wished we had topped up some more!

There was a certain joke in that if you are a follower of fashion but one tiny ounze will buy you over 23 barrels of the black stuff and given Condor can extract around 50k ounzes from open pit, which is just some dynamite and some shovels its going to be a lot less complex going forward(thats over 1 million barrels of oil with little investment). Condor are trading at 27p so keep an eye on as all ducks are lining up nicely and if the toll refining deal pans out could be a double bagger very quickly. The way the world is currently going i have a feeling gold is going to be very much in fashion.

I just rolled over my Ophir exit cash into Condor Gold just in time for news of £1.75m raise and expected news of toll refining deal in next few months to bring into production. Gold is the new oil and Condor is sitting on around 2.4-5m ounzes of the stuff and stuck on a market cap of £19m? its got permit to mine 600k ounzes so thats nearly $1bn of gold. If the toll refining comes through Condor will be in production Q3 or sooner. Dont buy gold, buy the gold mine springs to mind!

Also good to remember these are long term holders so those shares will be locked until the end so they will never see the light of day. Onwards and upwards and i think we really are on a momentum now the main shareholders are averaged down.

That explains all the odd trades recently with price probably manipulated down to squeeze the best price for the placing given it was directors and key institutions buying in. Had they been looking for PI to pony up the cash i am sure they would have driven the price up and released good news before the fund raising:) Still i cant complain as £1.75m is very useful and derisks further and will make sure the toll refining deal comes through quickly and i am sure help grease the wheels along the way. Would be nice to see this share get back into the 30s and not look back but great time to be getting in alongside directors t these prices who probably know what is about to happen with the up coming rns schedule. Next up hopefully the toll refining as my view on this is that its a done deal and hence the rush to get the Mestiza permits turned around. i think once they get these permit applications in we should be in the home straight for that release.

We need to also wonder who this seller is offloading. My suspicion its a fund that might have a mandate to not invest in certain countries due to political changes. It happens. If the US get more pushy, some institutional investors have specific mandates. I cant why a holder would sell at this time given all future newsflow that i suspect will bring Consor into a whole different kind of company. Given 2 lots of 250k shares were sold after hours i wonder if MC etc are buying more as they did last month. interestingly the price has held firm at 26p so it appears there are matched buyers and seller. i think its a good time to top-up.

I think the video from yesterday from MC stating the deal for toll refining is on the table and looking for sign off this half of the year is fantastic news if it comes about. Bringing into production is a fame changer and makes pe multiples come into play. He also replied to host vultures have been circling so he knows the score as and when we are in a position to look at exit. However i cant see MC looking for sometime to come given his 10 year investment. If he can get that agreement out to the market in next few months it changes a lot and be surprised if in the lead up to that news we are not in the high 30s.

If your looking for a likely double bagger over next 2-3 months take a close look at Condor Gold CNR. They are close to announcing toll mining deal according to MD with B2Gold and becoming a gold producer 2 years early. Its a game changer. Its where all my funds will be going anyway. Good luck but spread risk of oilies with a little gold for next few years as the Brexit bargain basement sign is well and truly hanging in the window and our BODs are running scared.

This BOD has sold OE at a bargain and should be ashamed. 55p?

We might also find that if we can get 120k oz gold per annum just from open pits that reduces the cost to extract as there is no need for mine building today, just some heavy machinery to shovel up the gold. We might find that the profitability of toll mining is such that we could go a long way to self finance the mine from this activity and mean we have skin in the game for any 3rd party input to speed things up. This is a great backstop as it gives less leverage to those borrowers looking for hefty returns and equity as if a contract is agreed it will give MC strong ammunition to negotiate any financing required on best terms. I think MC could have been more explicit in the release as to the layman the release was quite technical but it is almost a game changer for Condor.

Given the avalanche of poor comms today i nearly missed this important extra information from nero120 that changes everything for my immediate concerns. My concern with toll mining was the high cost to transport and the cost of processing and margin with B2gold might make the profitability for Condor too low. However the grade of Mestiza in todays release is 4 times what B2Gold are getting so for every tonne of ore they will extra 4 times the gold to share out. This means the terms of any toll mining deal can be healthy for both B2Gold and Condor and makes this toll mining far more likely to happen and also have a very positive impact on the shareprice once announced. Hopefully in the next few months this will be confirmed with concrete details on the split.

nero120
(posted with permission)

It is excellent news, Condor’s La India Project now has identified a new high grade feeder pit of 129,000 oz gold at 8.4g/t gold on Mestiza. The total resource in 4 feeder pits totals is circa 280,000 oz gold and can add 30k to 40k oz gold per annum to production from the main permitted La India open pit. This re-sizes the annual production from open pits to 120,000 oz gold per annum for 7 years. This is a 50% increase in annual production form the Pre-Feasibility Study of 80,000 oz gold per annum. In addition there is 1.2M oz gold in underground material that can be brought into a mine plan. We remain confident we are on a 5M oz gold district.

Discussions are advancing to get some early production and cashflow by trucking ore to two nearby processing plants that have space capacity. This means we can get into production without the expense of building a new mine. We will use contract mining and haulage operators.

In 2018, at B2Gold’s La Libertad mine, head grade (the grade of the material at the processing plant) for the year was 1.19 g/t gold. The head grade on Mestiza is almost 4 times higher

Best regards

Mark

Need to check directors pay packet on buy out, vested options....
I have seen bad deals go through because directors cash in free options.
55p must be still a baseline offer and i expect Medco to table higher as i cant see it flying with sharehllders who most will have lost money, many significantly.

Bear in mind not only does Medco need to put in an offer but the OE BOD need to review it and a regulatory statement would need to be put out. That takes time, at least hours. My view given the deadline is that offer or not has come over weekend for board to consider over their sunday roasts and any rns should probably come tomorrow morning. If there is no rns in morning i suspect medco have walked away and not because they do not want but the price OE and longterm holders want is too high. However lwte hope for a 60p + offer and see how that settles.

POO is back to Nov 20 2018 prices amd climbing drammatically. This is the POO pre the first offer around 58p. While Fortuna is no more they will have to raise their bid back to the entry level of around 58p, trry and buy the SE asia assets separately or potentially walk away if they feel there is not a knats chance in hell the BOD would entertain an offer. It does feel that they would need to go to 70p to get any traction from shareholders as most are long suffering but my suspicion is an offer around mid 50s in next port of call and share price is finally over 45p with some expectation of the offer being extended. Having said all that the way Medco have flippantly made offers is not exactly comforting as these offers are generally a little more considered and Medco could appear to be opportunists.