Member Info for Simms45

You are absolutely right about preference for toll but i think B2 will extract a hefty cut in one way or another if they feel Condor has no other options. having plan b on paper pushed under B2 nose might help break any deadlock. The delays for me is that MC is juggling options but probably hoping B2 will find time to agree something. The level of buying of condor is very healthy so long may that last.

The last of the overhang is gone so we should be seeing steady bluesky as everything terrible you could throw at Condor is priced in. In some ways the IFC departure will save a pretty penny on all the report writing and given PIs the chance to mop up large dollops of stock at 17p. Nice work if you can get it. The only caveat is that MC will need to show his hand before mid July. i am hoping a little sooner. My instinct is deal with a local miner just to get the producer monocle in place and get Condor ticking over and a good re-rate back i to the 30s. At this point on the back of some momentum often those side line investors and lenders will probably come off the fence. It cant be much fun going into all these investor meetings and he brings up his impressive ski slope performance over last 2 years. Its almost a wtf moment that MC can do his best to slide around but its just a bum on hands moment for investors. Lets see this tick up nicely over coming weeks and then hopefully that change in sentiment will happen. #Ducks lining up.

well every little dance between Iran and the US will lead to a rising gold price. There is so much instability on the horizon surprised gold has not risen faster sooner. Trumps larger than life mouth and Iran backed into a corner does not normally lead to sensible decisions. prefer gold was rising for reasons of future debt crisis of Italy spilling into the European banking system.

I do believe there is a little hangover from the IFC dump and one possibility is the MM kept some shares back to make a tidy profit themselves as the shares are being triggered for sale at 20p. 600k have been cleared in last few days in 250k/250k/100k drops so i sense once we push through that headwind it will be a leg up. If it is another seller they are probably under the 3% radar so we cant see but the amounts are consistent with the MM managing this disposal. The good news is PIs are lapping it up. could be last chance saloon for buying stock around 20p.

No IFC are fully out. On the 6th June IFC had sold enough to bring to 3%. They then sold the rest this week so they are fully out. Today share price moved above the 17p that IFC had set their price. It was always a hold on this stock and not aware anyone else is a forced seller. IFC was forced largely because their policy changed and was not motivated by any other reason. Get ready for takeoff.

If its IFC they had 3.4m shares so they might have sold down close to 2.5m over last few days from big sells posted. With any luck it is IFC as i heard their policy changed to debt and not equity.

Is the 500k or 1m shares just been sold? Should be some rns who it is. I suspect the ifc.

I think we are nearly up to 3% changing hands. Should be close to completion. good to get access to large amounts of shares so cheap as i remember the days when you could barely get 20k of shares without moving the price a few pence.

i understand from sources that there was a seller that had an sell order at 20p sometime ago but it has not been above this amount and my suspicion is the MM has had instructions to sell it at a lower price. This is why we cannot see the sell order until either later today or when it is unloaded. It will come to pass but you can expect the price to rise a good degree once this is out of the way. Fill yer boots as 17p a pop is a good risk/reward play as i expect we will be in production one way or another before the end of the year and one of the many irons in the fire will be selected. i am hopeful a small mine deal separate from B2G will be done so we can get some cashflow going and let the B2G discussion continue in the background. My strong hope is a a deal outside of B2G will simply help speed up those discussions as it is clear B2G will not miss this opportunity to turn their disastrous Nicaraguan mines around.

B2Gold will do a deal sometime but its to their advantage to make us sweat a little. MC needs to do a deal with another mine (there are several) and get us into production. If we get into production a lot changes. All of a sudden we have cashflow and market will re-rate. At some point B2Gold will play ball and announcing a mine deal or alternative toll deal will likely speed up B2Gold decision making. Also remember if we do a foll deal with B2Gold they can switch off toll agreement probably so this is just a fillip while we sort out the main course. That will be our own BFS, buying B2Gold equipment or another local mine. however getting into production must be the main priority and to find a way to do that. Im happy with another local mine etc to achieve that as that would give us stability at a certain level and provide gold sales to fund the BFS and give confidence to lenders.

The trick i think is to get B2Gold to come to the trough. If B2G think they hold the cards then the can sweat Condor for a while as they appear to be doing. My hope is Condor are looking at other possibilities as they need to find other toll deals or other mines to work with. if they can that might speed up B2Gold decision making. B2Gold ultimately do not want to continue with a heavy loss making mine in Nicaragua looking for gold in the slag heap. it must be embarrassing frankly. Ultimately it surely must all come together but B2Gold are making at killing at their Fekola mine with very low AISC and you have to think B2Gold are probably an attractive target themselves. everyone is up for grabs but it is starting at the top of the pile and working its way down. Another option is Condor to join a whole group of other mines and get to a size that gets on the radar as the consolidation i now on happening. It will all come good in the end as over 40% of the company is held by key investors (some are billionaires) and unlike so many companies they are only going to make a good return by either selling at a high price or going into production. Condor can continue to raise money without issue at a certain level. Therefore Condor will not follow the likes of many other sellout companies as they have access to cash and have plenty of skin in the game. These are big assets for Condor.

That is one of the irons but i just sense that is not quite so close in all honesty. We all know its a win-win but there are a number of permutations and i guess B2Gold are less time constrained although since all its Nicaragua mines are losing a lot of money you might expect a more expedited outcome. Production is the key and all efforts are focused to unlock that.

Not quite in the Nags Head but I have to say after tonight i am cautiously optimistic that one of the irons in the fire will come to fruition in the coming 1-2 months. I did not sense any immediate news and no Cheshire cat grin but certainly time spent in Vancouver and Nicaragua is not wasted.

I live locally so Im down to attend and see what i can read between the lines. Hopefully a grin ear to ear.

As i understand MC was in Nicaragua this week. Would not want to be out of CNR this weekend just in case as news will probably come about after such a visit. We will see but pretty comfortable waiting this one out as i expect if one of the ducks are lined up everything falls into place very quickly. The biggest issue today is largely the share price as i think a lot of the structure of the mine finance is in place and if we get a tasty toll deal then this is one road to momentum but given the possibility of picking up mine infrastructure it is worth taking our time to get it right. The quiet is actually quite a good sign as we know NDAs have been signed for sometime with B2Gold so plenty being discussed and just working out the structure of any deal as both have a pretty strong hand to play as both have shareholders on their backs for performance improvements in Nicaragua. Combining B2Gold nicaragua and Condor in some form is almost too good an opportunity for both to pass.

In fairness to MC he is out there consistently talking to anyone who cares to listen and speaking at quite a few events. Hopefully at each event he attends some PIs will buy some stock and replace the stale bulls and re-energise. Certainly he spends 1 week a month in Nicaragua and hopefully keeping some time available to keep talks going with b2Gold and all the rest. MC managed to bring in the some of the most notable investors such as Ross Beaty and Jim Mellon and he is in a much better position than he was a few years ago. Shame about the Nicaraguan government but here we are 2 steps forward and one step back.

Yes as you say this is quarterly volumes that would equal Condor yearly volumes but still some measure of comparability on several metrics but not the best like for like potential comparison. Still there is a big margin between a producer and an explorer. Does anyone have any good comparables that i should look at? interested in both volume of gold produced but also inferred gold quantity and AISC as all are factors in the valuation of a gold mine. my view is that Condor has some of the best district inferred amounts, lowest AISC and ultimately a potentially long mine life that on current inferred volumes should last 15 years at least.

Centamin announced gold production of 116,000 ounces today, something of a comparable to Condor maybe in 2-3 years time if MC hits his 120k target when the mine is fully operational. Centamin has a mine in Egypt, which i would also say has certain political hostility much like Nicaragua, but you will note Centamin is valued at just over $1bn, which is even down 30% on the year. They do have measured and Indicated resource of 11.7 million ounces (Moz) so currently a bigger pit to work from but Condor is no slouch with current inferred resource of 8.48Mt and MC has stopped looking for more gold as there are "so many targets".

However the open pit resource at Centamin is a mere 0.3g/t cut-off grade.This is laughable compared to Condor at 4.3 g/t gold.

The rewards are big in the end and you just need to look at companies like Centamin to see where we could be in 2-3 years time if we get our ducks lined up and not get bought for a song which i think is increasingly likely and there must be plenty on the sidelines ready to pounce if the ball comes free. Fortunately with probably 40% of the shares held tightly any offer would need to be substantial but realistically is Condor worth a mere $16m? Re-rate will come but still a way to go.

I like it but i think if mine was $110m that Condor would need to mint 110,000 1 ounze coins at $1000 (discount $300). Could maybe have $800 for early birds as money could come in overtime as we only need to cashflow the development.

He could stamp with a Condor, and sell these for delivery from 2022 on a FCFS basis. would offer Condor interest free cash and a lot of marketing and publicity as i suspect a lot of people would take part. Crowdfund the mine could be a way forward. Still it would not be a walk in the park.

I watched a clip on ross beaty who is both an investor in Condor as well as bullish on gold generally. He was talking about his new toy, Equinox Gold, and his two year plan to grow it to 500k ounzes of gold production per annum through acquisition . He reason is that 500k mid tier miners have a good premium over the rest of the market. He is on the look out for anything around 100k a year mines. its certainly not unlikely that Ross will have an eye on Condor to put into the Equinox pot. Equinox Gold is one of many gold producers looking to achieve mid tier status and if wind it right, gold explorers, will get the whip end of valuation enhancement. Putting aside some political woes Condor is in the explorer sweetspot so will have many interested parties but obviously at a discount. i have to say the most compelling for long-term value creation is to build this mine and as soon as that happens the premium to potential acquirers considerably rises. Even when you consider some dilution the premium valuation from having finance to build the mine will more than offset that.