Member Info for Simms45

I think the aim of the email was partly the subtle hint that dilution was definitely not his preferred way forward or why else comment on a 3rd party deal but also he was saying $100m is heading to Nicaragua and was raised relatively easily so the doors are wide open to investment after the political woes. As a PI i am happier he is not planning to do the dirty as if he did he would effectively dilute himself to less than 1% unless he could pony up the millions of cash needed to keep his stake. Happy to stay at low altitude on Condor and looking forward to a bit more altitude.

Thanks for your great input and considered opinion as you clearly know your stuff. i have to say im ok with the reasonably slow boat to production and tickle the share price up as things fall into place, as quite a bit is due to news towards last quarter. I think the email from MC today does demonstrate the downside to PIs who got basically wiped out. I am sure all PIs will dilute but lets first get a few steps up the rung. Even a small toll deal would transform the company to be cashflow positive and at that point we dont need the 6-12 month raises and can tide things over while Our new investor gets in the seat and helps drive things forward. i dont think we are too far from some positive momentum and thinking it through Calibre will want Condor as part of the picture. By actually agreeing a toll deal Condor share improves, Calibre gets some profit also and more importantly Condor gets closer to a valuation around £100m that will make any deal more likely. The fact Condor is languishing is actually a brake on everyone moving forward and it would actually benefit Calibre to raise Condor stock as they know they would need to raise cash to buy and it would be easier with a bit of cashflow and progress on the side of Condor. Anyway also no need to focus on Calibre as there is a lot of Mergers on the horizon and Condor is a good option.

As i understand RothRock Condor was and potentially still is under NDA and where Condor provided rock samples. Therefore there was discussions being had. I suspect the Calibre intervention has rather stolen some thunder but i guess Calibre will be taking over a loss making mine and will either pull rabbits out of the hat to change that or if they are under pressure from shareholders and bond holders to keep up repayments Calibre might well look to bus in some ore. we will wait and see but i agree that toll mining with Calibre is less likely than perhaps it might have seemed 6 months ago with B2Gold. I do think Randy is not exactly a silent shareholder so he will be pivotal to assisting Condor realise some of their toll options and probably play a major part in the mine build. He was a very good strategic investor and i think there is a lot more to come. to have some of the worlds best investors on board shows MC is highly credible. Ross and Jim all invested in the last round to keep their same investment holding. I think MC is doing a fair strategy in that he could go and get full funding for the mine but at an big dilution. He is first exploring options to bring Condor into a fair valuation before doing that and looking for early cashflow. the feeder pits must get permitted and i suspect they are pivotal to any toll deal but securing that will improve the stock. The land acquisition completion will also be a pivotal moment as you cant announce any mine plan until we know all land is owned. Personally i can only see positive news coming our way as at this price Condor is priced to fail and Gold is hardly going to fall as it looks the world is becoming more destabilised by the day and the value of global currencies are almost the emperors new clothes with printing presses going non stop for 8 years pumping cash into the banks. sure there is disappointment we are not further or had any big breaks so far but it is not that we are standing still either. Condor is still on the slow boat to production. If MC can get the valuation to where it should be today, maybe £50m then it makes it more likely a buyer might convince its shareholders £100m is a good deal pre production. We know post mine build the company would be probably 5 times this valuation based on its AISC of $700 and the mine would pay back the purchase in 5 years. With a district of probably may more than 5m this mine will go for decades so its a long-term play in a mining friendly country.

With Nicaragua milling taking a sizeable stake recently it is almost certain Condror will get something going, even if just a proof of concept with a little cashflow while the La Libertad deal is being sorted and planning for its plant. There are a good deal of ways forward that does not dilute shareholders greatly, bearing in mind around 45% are held by recently or long-term holders so dilution is almost off the table to any silly extent. Just a matter of time sadly but we have a solid foundation.

That would certainly be happy days when we do actually hit 120k ounzes and like you say after AISC of $700 we would be making $800 an ouze clear profit. Over a year $96m profit. Hoping for a good dividend when that happens.

Good to see some updated slides. They were a lot clearer and more digestible so i think it will help better portray the company. no smoking gun but he made a good slide on the toll refining so he must be quietly confident something will come together and my understanding he is in Nic for 2 weeks so thats a good amount of time to work on critical matters to make something happen. His feeder pits he said will be submitted early next month with hopeful approval shortly after so a little dissappointing its not submitted but timescales are closing in.

Looking at the MC diary i think we will get update after 4 weeks because he is out in Nicaragua for 2 weeks, which is longer than normal presumably to move the permits along and close the land sales as well as hopefully agree up some way forward to get some toll refining. Any one of these news in weeks will be helpful to derisk. News on toll refining will probably only occur once the feeder pits are permitted. If he drops that rns then we are tantalisingly close to cashflow and a good rerate in my view. Good period of time to top up imho.

Remember that exercised warrants are cash on the bank for Condor and the only warrant holders are long-term holders so they would be held. Also the warrants, apart from most recent awards are at a much higher price and when we hit 60p those directors and holders might nearly be back in profitability. Most investors like JM are well under water still and will only sell if the company is acquired or reaches a valuation over probably $180m that MC has talked off based on the NPV. We are a long long long way from that. Still barely 1/8th

Wake me up when we get back to 40p. I hope not before too long. i dont have level 2 but i suspect there is some bigger legs up in due course as price dropped from 40p very quickly for little reason and post all the Nic political shenanigans that dropped us down from 60p.

This is not uncommon for landowners to drive a hard bargain (as would be expected given the once in a lifetime opportunity in a very poor country) but as ElectricLion alludes, just as in the UK, if the landowner does not agree or holds out are unreasonable then the Nic government will have a quiet word or force a compulsory purchase order on the landowner at a far lower price. I suspect a quiet word in the ear is all that is needed in Nic but when a landowner is holding back infrastructure and employment prospects in the current time then it is of national and local importance to resolve. Normally once most land deals are agreed at a price per hectare (say 60%) the hold outs will not hold out for long. We have only just got the cash so legals take sometime but often it is the landowners who will only get paid once everyone agrees so they often know one another and can often apply friendly leverage to make sure everyone agrees.
Condor will soar but i am happy with a penny a day to ensure those that want to buy in and out have time to do so. I am not a huge fan of doublers as they tend to also halve just as quickly. what we want is steady support and share price growth over the next 3 months and get us back to 40p with a strong support base at that price. steady as she goes but i think everyone knows that news on land sales > feeder pits > toll mining will send this share very strongly north. Toll mining being the biggie and the one that will put real fundamentals into play and give us a NPV that MC has spoken about. At that point the mine finance and share dilution will be far easier and less painful for us PIs who many are sitting on long-term losses.

I think those uncovering Condor simply cannot believe why the valuation is so low. I think when it is this low people rightly question what is going on? Wen you have the CEO clearly explaining the NPV valuation is around $190m you actually think how can a company be 1/10th of where it might be. We know the 3 forced sellers offloading around 15% of the equity did not help but that overhang we believe is now over. Clearly now the only matter remaining to get somewhere closer to real valuation is all about getting that gold out of the ground. MC will be very close to buying the final land necessary and the feeder pits are very close to getting the green light. With the feeder pits in place we have the ability to deliver toll refining should Calibre see the opportunity but with Nicaragua mining on board we have a partner who is financially motivated to make that happen also and clearly MC has brought in a fantastic strategic partner. Mine finance will be completed in due course but getting some clear sight of cashflow changes everything. We already have proven reserves for over 7 years just from the open pit and several further years below the ground. However MC has said many times they are drowning in targets and we probably have one of the major gold mines for the next 20-30 years+ as the veins of gold are everywhere. The final jigsaw pieces will start to fit in once we have feeder pits green light and land acquisition completed. All a matter of patient capital as almost without knowing this stock will step change.

Cant say these dilutive options, at barely over current price, are nothing short of a freebie. Really options should be at target price to drive management. 1m for MC means if he hits £1.22 he will walk away with a million and realistically while he is hard working and politics aside he has rather let Condor creep and face this drop over last 3 years. To reward with lowest option price ever agreed between themselves is a little unsavoury. Its not unrealistic a target with a toll deal agreed and BFS in the bag. If we got a long-term toll deal we would be well on the way to profitability.

Well many here would be all happy as larry is we were even close to 90p. Happy to see the other side of 25p before the end of the summer and if MC can secure some toll refining we can say goodbye to the 20s with a growing investor base who focus on producers. I would say just a waiting game but sadly for many here that has been a very long time.

They have target price of 90p.
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All very well in hindsight :) I think MC was juggling many balls and i suspect B2G and others were all being worked on to find the most efficient way through for investors. At the end of the day we have maybe $4bn+ of gold to dig up so everyone should benefit and it looks clear from rns that MC is not planning to sell off. He is well under water financially along with all investors so he is doing what he can in the current climate to get Condor moving forward. It is clear to me the £4m is largely to close the land deal that will unlock the rest of the project. there is probably 2-3 toll mining options floating around but we can read between the lines that one of those is done and dusted pending some technicalities. Also at 20p a share investors will also spy share price growth potential. We are moving forward and that is what counts. £5m cash in bank, including remainder of last raise, gives us room to get over the line.

Excellent News. Not only is the placing above the current share price but MC has cleverly worked in Nicaraguan Milling to take a stake and that will mean a guaranteed toll mining deal very shortly to the benefit of everyone. Also great to see Jim Mellon but i sense we have just put ourselves back into first gear as we derisk. The toll mining agreement should be released shortly but i can see that MC already has everything ready to go and will release the news in steady amounts.

Maybe we can crowdfund some kit and get the party started. We got the permit so MC should by now have turned some cash. https://www.rosariumrosengarten.nl/gold/gold-ore-grinding-equipment-for-sale-in-nicaragua.html#

You were not the only one. 100k bought after the bell. I think everything is falling into place and explains slow progress of toll deal. I expect Calibre to be more interested but personally hope MC closes some deal to take us into production. Happy with baby steps but need to take pressure off and stand on own feet. At gold price today every mine should be maxing out production to take advantage.

Not the fat cigar moment but it was becoming clear that permits would not be until the second half of the year and as someone said elsewhere those feeder pits are probably important in regards to any toll agreement as i believe they going to be used for that. However you would think that MC would be working night and day to get that permitting into the government so that is disappointing he was not able to achieve that in the first half of the year. The key for me is that MC gets on and does a deal with a local mine to process some ore, in particular not B2, so we are cashflow positive and having cashflow quickly means MC can stand on his own feet and investors are a lot keener to commit debt knowing they have some revenue coming in. Looks like the transformational year might come nearer to the end of the year but his update was short across the board but he has everything rumbling but we need to see some of those rumbles come to fruition. My preference is an RNS on permitting secured post summer followed by immediate RNS on a toll deal. I think that is likely but MC has got to pull his finger out and sit on those permitting documents and make them happen.

Over 3 months have elapsed for the feeder pit permit and does anyone know the likely timescales, assuming no issues? I think we were led to believe it was just a waiting game but i agree that this could be one of the jigsaw pieces as B2 deal and others might hinge on this easy to access ore.