Member Info for Simms45

if you want the dividend you need to have bought by wednesday. This share will adjust ex dividend but will quickly get back to £2 resistance level.

we are now nearly 1 month into Q2 and if permits were expected in Q1 and have drifted into Q2 my instinct is they will be in the first half of the quarter so could be a matter of weeks now for things to start moving. There is clearly a lot of planning going on for different early cashflow scenarios and i am very confident that once the feeder pits are signed off and land sales concluded options will present themselves quickly. We are currently at a criminally low market cap of £24m for a company that has $1bn of gold permitted to be extracted already, and then in time a whole lot more as the area is drilled and additionally permitted. This mine could be one of the best investments in the future as global economies go crazy with printing cash and gold becomes realistically the only credible store of wealth. time for top up i think.

There are a lot of these kits being touted as an instant testing kit, sounds amazing but can anyone do it accurately? All test results i have seen so far shows a lack of accuracy in that corona viruses (of which there are 18) share apparently 99 % of the same DNA and the issue is specifically testing for covid19 as opposed to just a corona virus or the common cold. If they cracked it great. If not this could drop like a stone. I guess that is the risk/reward profile but interested in whether accuracy is close to being overcome as many many are simply not accurate but just another snake oil salesman (hopefully not in this case)

Looks that all European countries including the UK have pretty much all hit a trend of falling deaths. I sense this week will be a risk on week and IAG should benefit. the early information (unverified) showing potential treatment using Remdesivir, if confirmed more widely, will basically clear a pathway. Little additional news from IAG on the weekly burn but if Europe can open equally then it should open a European airline system being back up. I somehow think global networks will be slower as other countries play catchup. If correct in some ways supports Easyjet a little more than IAG who are European focused.

Wow looks like NCYT is close to 100x from its low of 6p in february. I suspect there is a vertigious fall once this blows over so watch out. while Condor has been practising self isolation for years if there is any company that needs to come out of this quickly it must be Condor with POG at $1700. Could it be this week we get the starting gun out?

Thats great to hear air purifiers already in place. just need the tick boxes to be agreed amongst countries and its pretty clear that with half a dozen european countries relaxing restrictions that some level of service from airlines will probably start around June 17th as many have announced. Obviously limited but at least a starting gun. Lots more positive news expected next week after peaks are confirmed by all European countries.

Easyjet once restrictions eased have said initially middle seat will not be used.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/16/easyjet-weighs-up-empty-middle-seats-once-coronavirus-rules-are-eased

Seems fair idea although i would add they should add some air purifier to remove particles but airlines gearing up for changes until vaccine in place or virus runs out of hosts.

Has to Be said trading could look grim if you think countries plan to commit harakiri but i believe in last man standing and if 50% of airlines go bust in next 6 months IAG will not one of them. IAG has a great opportunity to consolidate, cost cut and come out of this crisis lean and fighting fit and profit from the higher prices. From my research there is no better capitalised airline today. However business lobby and millions of impoverished workers will trump all else as the heat rises.

The quicker Condor gets to over £1 means the quicker Rio Tinto can take a shot and Calibre gets its 10% commission. For Calibre its win-win-win. First toll mining profit of maybe 50% of Condor ounzes, then 10% commission and presumably a management control on behalf of Rio so extra pay packets. they might not do a deal but there is no credible argument that Calibre gains from having a mill burning a hole in its balance sheet, and condor at a value we know it will not be sold at and where key investors own over 50% and in no hurry. In the mean BAU as We know we have 600k ounzes to dig up permitted and at 1700 works out to be $10bn in revenue. Someone explain to me why we are worth £25m again? roll on some real cashflow and re-rate will be a multiple of today.

Well just reporting that TUI, Jet2 and Ryanair all announced some return of service from June 17th so i am not making it up. What level of service i do not know but thats for them to decide.

Will be interesting to see but i suspect economics and societal issues, due to lack of money, will Have a louder voice at the table in coming months once data starts to firm up. UK govt has been generous compared to southern European Countries who have offered limited support and are even more desperate to reboot. Tourism is vital to these economies. If government are offering limited support there is a lot more pressure building up. 88% of current “with covid19” deaths are people with 1-3 serious underlying issues so once they are taken out you see a different picture and once you drop those over 60 even less. the numbers at the end are relatively small under 50, however sad but looking at family breakups/suicide is not much fun either. My expectation is those over 60 with commonsense will sit this one out until vaccine comes but those who have antibodies or under 50 it makes sense to open that up. With UK having empty covid19 hospitals all over country it will be a white elephant unless they find some patients. if air transport has to meet new regulations how will it work on public buses and the tube? Exactly it cant. You can only use commonsense and decide who is low or high risk. anyway June 17th is still 2 months away? That is a longtime as we went from 0-1000 deaths in 3 weeks. Could it be 1000 down to a small number in the next 3 weeks and funnily enough follow the pattern of any of the other 18 corona viruses. On that front 18% of flu deaths each year are a corona virus anyway but i digress.

What is odd to me is why Easyjet does not simply offer a 10% or 20% voucher bonus. Singapore airlines does this and they trade barely 30% down from peak. Cathay Pacific also and only 30% down. It costs very little given many cash refunds will not rebook anytime soon. Cash conservation should be key and vouchers are perfect to fill up empty spaces on fights, of which i suspect there will be plenty in early months if easyjet operate from June 17th as many other airlines are penciling in. I think the UK airlines need to offer a bonus and overall i think having looked at other global airlines those in UK have been hit hard unfairly. Maybe im missing something.

Actually i did say if British Airways are on the 80% furlough deal it might be better to max that out while it lasts as early flights will be patchy. This morning United Airlines has opened up booking for three transatlantic flights to Europe and two additional nonstop flights to South America so this is really early but bear in mind business lobbying will get stronger and governments will increasingly support them especially as other counties try to gain an economic advantage to open sooner.

Was not aware of that. I thought the government furlough was a maximum of 3 months and workers will be going back to work if there is a job to go back to and when the company opens. Spain starts in some industries from tomorrow. if other airlines start operating it will be interesting if some do not follow. It might be more cost effective to not fly potentially while government foot the bill but at same time I suspect people will be keen to travel and those that are first to announce will take a sales lead.

Im just reporting some news i picked up on. Spain announced non essential workers are going back to work Today from next week. Netherlands announced primary schools start in 2 weeks along with several other countries. Sweden has side stepped the whole lockdown and their rates of infection and mortality is better than the UK so thats odd? Obviously plenty of curve balls could happen, second spike and so forth but reading all the data it is painting a different story as to change afoot. also worth you looking at the ONS total deaths against the average for this time of year and you might spot some oddities that might make you question the definition behind Covid 19 deaths. however lots of news breaking every day that helps build a picture. Obviously dyor but June 17th is specific dates provided by some airlines.

Im just reporting some news i picked up on. Spain announced non essential workers are going back to work Today from next week. Netherlands announced primary schools start in 2 weeks along with several other countries. Sweden has side stepped the whole lockdown and their rates of infection and mortality is better than the UK so thats odd? Obviously plenty of curve balls could happen, second spike and so forth but reading all the data it is painting a different story as to change afoot. also worth you looking at the ONS total deaths against the average for this time of year and you might spot some oddities that might make you question the definition behind Covid 19 deaths. however lots of news breaking every day that helps build a picture. Obviously dyor but June 17th is specific dates provided by some airlines.

Ryanair along with some other airlines have all pencilled in June 17th as the restart of full service. My expectation other airlines will fall in line but i do wonder if in fact some will start sooner and in case of BA can operated from Terminal 5 more effectively until Gatwick (holiday travel largely) resumes. Potentially flights from City Airport might start sooner if business travel is in demand. Clearly i do see a heavy cloud over non essential travel but at the same time there will also be pent up demand drom April and May plans that were affected. With IAG holding back the dividend of £350m this i understand is worth about 3-4 weeks of running costs. With govt picking up tab of most paye staff its probably IAG is in a good position. With flybe and germanwings already bust there are fewer providers so also chance for better margins. Other airlines with low cash face possible collapse. If June 17th is a tentative date and this means 10 weeks in hibernation then dividend helps for around 4 of those. i think the market is still pricing in later start so the V shaped return is still possible in the UK where the government has done so much to shoulder the pain of big business. with IAG £9bn of access to cash they looks very useful should some of its competitors go into administration. The next few days is probably going to reinforce the peak being passed in a lot of Europe and maybe the turning point in the UK so could be a big positive jump for all stocks on tuesday if dates start to come out.

TUI announced they will recommence all services from June 17th. Obviously they have a big holiday market and it could change but given many countries are now talking relaxation of restrictions that probably does sound doable, if not before. However with govt agreeing to pay 80 % of wages for 3 months many companies are less motivated to start back up, and employees even less so.

What i like most about this document is it reminded me MC is motivated to achieve an exit value of £1 + so he is able to access a windfall of 1% if exit price is £1+ up to 2% if exit is £1.50+. Therefore MC will be acutely aware of sale price, downsides of excessive dilution and so forth to get to this price range. We have a very closely aligned ceo. I think given Mako mining valuation is a multiple there is a good chance with a toll mining and a clear plan for our own smaller mill we could be approaching a good multiple of todays price but still hoops to jump through.

Im sure the Chinese are already lining up the sale of their face recognition software that matches you against who you have met in the last 7 days and a risk score to decide if you have been a good boy and if you are allowed on the plane. Dont laugh as its already deployed in China and people wonder the point of 5G rollout. They will soon.