Member Info for Simms45

I think if Jim Mellon used the V sign you can be reasonably sure he wants to bag another 5% holding at low prices today and will lead any raise. i am sure MC is more aligned with pis as he is probably not in a position to take part seriously in any raise. Ross and Jim could well be looking to fill their boots at a very opportune time. Personally i am not concerned either way as we look to be raising pretty small change of equity as it stands for plan discussed. However doing the raise post agreement with Calibre would benefit long standing pis still under water and bring a lot more investors into orbit who are investors in producers only. ultimately MC is CEO and has to make decisions in the best interests of all shareholders and who cares if we share £25m with Calibre as its small change to the bigger picture and it makes a lot more sense for Calibre and Condor to get along not least i understand our head of mines was ex Calibre and on good terms and knows the people so if they dont get along Condor might well be hiring a lot of best people from Calibre. regardless we enter a new phase of growth as soon as cashflow hits the financials and standard PEs etc can start to come into play and all bets are off. However i see several decisions happening in next month or so. Its not as if MC over last 18 months has not been war gaming scenarios and not sounding this all out.

As i understand Condor wants the earliest sight of cashflow. The simple reason is that this will turn Condor into a producer and re-rate will be very healthy. The quickest route is clearly a Calibre toll mining agreement for a period of 6-12 months while Calibre have very nicely left kit ready to be used and have a lot of spare capacity doing nothing when gold is at an all time high. I actually believe that is far closer and more a case of waiting for the Calibre 8 week lockdown to come to an end. There is also the issue of whether Jim and Ross are planning to lead the investment as if so they are they might craftily want to keep the share price low until they do that little equity swap and then perhaps sign the Calibre deal but Ross and Jim might be leaning on MC to maximise their outcome. In some ways i would like to see 3rd parties in Canada come on board other than Ross and for MC to sign the toll agreement asap to get the re-rate and reduce dilution as we could easily re-rate to £1 on that news and first cash delivered. There is also huge strategic importance to that agreement because of the Rio Tinto elephant waiting in the background for a possible buy-out of Condor given Rio will only be interested in 5m ounze districts and apart from Condor there is not many others in Nic. The china route sounds interesting given the 50% reduction on costs and could be on the cards as it is probably not too much more than the 2nd hand kit but would depend on how quickly that could be delivered. However the 2nd hand kit is lower risk given it is just round the corner and will probably be operational quicker. Therefore we get 10s millions cash from toll mining, a mine operating next year and then who cares as Rio will have bought Condor by then for a decent price or we will be swimming in so much gold we will not know what to do. 5m ounze x $1700 = $8.5bn probable revenue if the district can be proved up to 5m, which given MC says we are drowning in gold targets i think is a understatement.

Would be good if someone can remind MC about TSX as Condor pay a fair whack to be there but a waste of money unless there is good liquidity. Most days 0 shares change hands and on days like today a few k. i know people who looked to buy but the spread put them off and inability to buy in bigger quantities. i think some money should be raised in Canada to try and raise some profile or somehow put some shares into the TSX ecosystem and get MM to introduce and fill bigger orders. Clearly the Billionaire Ross Beaty investor with 7% has a following in Canada and could be leveraged to good impact now Ross can start to crow its next big win. now is the perfect time as that mine decision is executed and everyone can see the massive potential in billions of gold. Would be nice for Condor minted a condor gold coin and sold to shareholders on the first pour. Be happy to buy an 1 ouze coin emblazoned with a Condor for posterity :)

i know someone who tried to buy on TSX but i understand there is almost no stock to trade and no liquidity. He could get barely $1k worth and the margin is silly if he subsequently sold so he did not take the risk. i think Condor needs to address that sharpish to make sure there is a decent level of liquidity so that investors can jump in properly in Canada. presumably the MM is supposed to be creating a market but not sure they are doing anything. That is all i was told but i think there is something Condor needs to address as there must be a lot of Canadian interest today and when further news comes out, especially the production decision news that will send this to the moon :) Excellent solid day today and can see 50p in sight very shortly.

Guess where this is heading in next 1-2 months once mine decision is made and cashflow projections are for all to see in black and white. Queue jaws dropping :)

While people who have been around understand what we have got here and 50p is still a bargain its good to see us smash through 40s and though some investors exiting in many ways thats great news to help create new resistance levels. Mind the gap as 40s are looking slim if people remember the 40s on the way up and down 2 years ago. Brakes are off!

Yes. To confirm i am just seeing £1.50 as the absolute minimum any offer would need to come in at for MC to even get out of bed and a little air time. I agree the price will ultimately smash that price if the moons align and a 5m ounze gold district is firmed up over next few years and £100m cashflows start washing around in 2021 and that is just for the proverbial nibbles before the starter :) then we can bring on the starter in late 2021 and choke on a little cash indigestion!

Although MC has been pushing this elephant up a hill for more than 12 years, very steadily, we know 50% of shares are owned tightly and money is not an issue given 2 billionaire investors and his own financial background. However takeover offers will come in at some point but it will probably happen only when they are sensible. Condor in many ways could leapfrog Calibre in market cap once the gold starts pouring. Billionaires are not looking for a quick exit given their 12 year investment and payback has to be many multiples of investment. To date investors have pumped in £60m and that will be very useful to not pay tax for a good time to come. We already know MC has a £1.50 target price minimum on the sale of the company as it triggers a little extra windfall but realistically Condor is deeper into the project and with the cashflow tantilisingly close i do wonder if the exit price will also increasing given gold is $1700 compared to $1250 back when this was all being worked out and oil was over $100 a barrel. as someone pointed out the AISC is probably a lot lower in reality.. I would add Billionaire investors are quite probably attracted to compounded dividends in the long-term as a 5m ounze potential district is far more exciting for these sort of characters than a one off hit.

What is also very exciting is this 2nd hand kit i suspect is stored ready to be transported and put up Meccano style. The issue i have with relying on brand new is probably delays in shipping and problems on the border as i guess a lot comes from abroad. This would massively derisk to a new level so that timelines are almost certain as hiccups along the way will be minimised. Given MC has confirmed full ownership of Mestiza land and La India land we have everything in place. These are the two magic land parcels that if the 2nd mine kit gets over the line that is going to be a huge boost to Condor as it will give us $100m+ profit just from Mestiza that we know can pay the full mine build but remember Condor has 0 debt today so i suspect most of the 2nd hand mine kit and large mine can be all funded by low cost debt and actually investors could see a lot more cashflow falling out once that all happens. not many mining companies can say they have 0 debt as Jim Melon and Ross Beaty all took stock. Also i am sure this mine kit will come in handy or could be resold to any number of 3rd parties in the future. i suspect the kit does have residual value especially when so many other gold miners are sniffing around so any investment here might get recovered in the future or perhaps just kept because MC has many times stated they are drowning in gold prospects and he thinks a 5m ounze district is achievable given the massive land parcels we have. to put in perspective at $1700 an ounce that is $8.5bn topline gold revenue. This would be massive for the Nicaraguan country as well. Remind me again why Condor is worth £32m??? Balmy is what that is.

I am now seeing 2-3 nice RNS over coming months that will transform Condor to cashflow and potentially this see some cashflow this side of 2020. If a 2nd hand mine does happen iscit ready to go and then its a case of trucking ore to mine or is MC transporting to La India? That is not entirely clear to me. I see toll mining as an additional arrow that could happen alongside. As far back as my original investment it has aways been investing in the team and having been burnt following snake oil salemen you just know PIs will come out good on this one. I noticed the last video MC said 49% was owned by his team so given a few percent on this board are long term holders (do or die i suspect) then we have the magic 50% and as long as that team stay on the same side we know we can deflect lowball offers coming later this year. exciting times. Hello 40p anyone?

testing at airport has not been happening for wizzair, and likely wizzair are an acid test. Emirates have tried airport testing but no longer are. the grey area will be those taking a flight might be temperature checked at airport and a form being completed. in reality treatments for Covid19 are getting more robust and this will probably not even be needed in August. Given the massive steps forward with treatments and eventually a vaccine all scare stories today will come into mainstream. Last month people talked of no holidays in August and no flights. Today flights are starting and holiday destinations are fighting to open up first and grab an advantage. now most holiday destinations are talking July. buy when others are fearful springs to mind and not let clickbait cloud commonsense judgement. in 2 months everyone will look back and wish they bought at crazy low prices across the market and IAG will certainly be one of those. given all the bad press we are still over £2 and very little bad news is having any dent. when positive newsflow starts the price rises will be quick.

While baby steps Wizzair has re-started some scheduled flights including canary islands yesterdsy so useful test of future protocols and how these go. Could well be full flights as so many people globally need to be somewhere else. I believe from personal experience there is huge pent up demand to get places and with so many people now holding vouchers keen to get abroad. Watch this space

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/05/03/take-off-wizz-air-completes-first-flight-from-spains-canary-island-to-london/

Not sure if people also viewed this Blytheweigh business news :

https://youtu.be/C7kQrEt6UgM

Nothing really more than we know already but he said within 2 weeks for america permit

As far back as 4th April Buffet was openly selling his US airlines stakes (no other country)

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-sells-part-of-delta-southwest-airline-stakes.html

5 days ago plenty of news outlets wrote about him selling all US airline stocks
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-might-sell-airlines-spend-billions-buybacks-chris-bloomstran-2020-4-1029133930

This is old news and in reality anyone dumping 10% stakes in an unrelated market will depress the price, which explains some of US decline that can be picked up by bargain hunters and bear in mind US airlines were mostly loss making to start with.

His point on airlines will change after Covid 19 is more correct for US airlines but its a bit off generally. airlines globally (except US) were changing 5 years ago from climate change and governments involvement. The worlds growth in the middle class is growing and people want to travel and business travel makes sense in Europe and outside US. I think IAG is making excellent strategic decisions, ahead of competitors and will come out of this far stronger. The big news will be other airline failures, especially Virgin and it is these specific changes that will propel the price.

Ryanair has put down some serious plans to be operating a meaningful schedule by the start of July once they have got rid of 3000 staff in coming month. Seems certain companies are taking advantage of the situation to lean up. I am sure BA will be closely watching but with Wizzair back in the skies, Easyjet working to June 5th with a large contingency of the industry (tui and others) it is largely BA who needs to firm up its plans. Looking a bit more positive for the week ahead along with a lot of news that countries with a large tourism industry are desperately working on plans to get tourists from July or their economies and millions of people and businesses will go bankrupt. even spain is now talking July and tourist destinations are jumping over each one to shorten dates. Originally news was September, then August and now July.

http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/ryanair-job-cuts-flights-cancelled-coronavirus-lufthansa-air-france-heathrow-a9493531.html

Gla

Even though Calibre have suspended some mining activities in Nicaragua their share price has doubled to $410m since that announcement so i think bodes well for Condor that investors are bullish for Nicaragua and Calibre even in these circumstances. Also gives Calibre more fire power should an approach be made in the distant future for raising finance. I think personally think a strong Calibre valuation increases chance of an agreement for toll refining at some point. next week i hope we get a further RNS as we seem tantalisingly close to more positive news.

Looks that IAG has successfully tapped the Spanish government for a cheap low cost loan which should come in handy for future plans. they are probably also going to play hardball on the price of Air Europa or probably they will walk. That should allow them to bag a bargain. BA has tactically not gone to the government as their plan is to smash the working practises and build their hub at Heathrow. Could be a helpful boost in the morning to investors as it derisks concern for IAG, although i think their cashpile was plenty at but bagging cheap cash from the government will help them weather the future.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-01/iag-s-iberia-and-vueling-sign-1-1-billion-syndicated-loan

Nice to see an airline buck the trend but Wizzair are open for flights tomorrow so anyone fancy a trip to Tenerife you know where to go but should be a useful test for others to follow and might speed up return to the skies for IAG.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/11479305/wizz-air-resume-london-flight-spain-portugal/

All great news especially the land purchase progress as it was only a few months ago when it was 50% and now almost 70% and importantly Condor has bought all land for the actual mine build so that will not be held up. Great also to here MC mention non dilution as that supports the idea that Mestiza can be leveraged to truck to a 3rd party mill and therefore partly self finance or at least pay off the agreed loan while the big enchilada is being constructed. Mestiza really was the key to unlocking the funding puzzle. Glad to see Condor price recover a little and next stop up to 40p soon and beyond.

I think a little tree shake after some very good news is expected as it gives some of the short-term investors the chance to sell but this should create a stronger base for those with bigger ambitions. Ultimately Condor needs to ramp up its PR plans to improve visibility of the company and prospects and that should happen by the release of a steady flow of positive news to back-up the hopes of the first RNS to solidify the plans for early cashflow to help fund the mine build with minimal dilution and Mestiza looks to be the sweet spot to achieve that. In some ways i am surprised we did not jump higher but happy to see that happen over the coming months. As Condor moves from explorer to junior producer the number of investors will increase dramatically and might notice that tiny £28m valuation compared to the billions of gold that are ready to be mined.