Member Info for Simms45

Has been a long time coming but looks they have finally found a reliable anti-body test.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/may/14/uk-coronavirus-live-antibody-test-approved-for-use-latest-updates

Earliest results from vaccine tests should be soon.

Excellent detective work tester223 as i am sure non core concessions with proven gold should be in play as its quick cashflow and because MC and team have no time to Invest in these prospects now they are this close to production decision. If Condor can sell these for millions can reduce equity needs also and sure there are plenty of takers now goldies are drowning in cash and looking to invest.

As i understand lenders and bondholders have said no so the deal cannot happen until the lenders say yes. Therefore i suspect the deal will be renegotiated (probably ongoing as we speak) or they will have to pull out as there is no money to pay for the deal. i suspect Cineplex are now desperate for the deal to happen so if anything they will either push this down the road so that the deal is not off completely as they must know the deal cannot happen. We is the $1.5bn cash coming fro as it is not from Cineworld!

Normally an AGM tends to put a line under whatever it might be and regardless of good or bad is generally good to remove unknowns. Seems to me nothing was said in the AGM and that is slightly odd behaviour given if they really wanted to have a deal with Cineplex they would provide some clarity on any of the matters that are probably pressing at this time.

i think the 10% fall has to a large extent swallowed that pill and my understanding lenders and bond holders are against the deal so i suspect the BOD are using the former to act as bad cop and will use that to renegotiate or more likely delay the deal. I think the BOD want to keep on good terms as the deal makes sense but not today at this price and i think everyone knows that. therefore i think the BOD will continue to cite they want to go ahead but then blame the pesky bankers and bondholders why they step back. Anyway there appears almost no hope of that deal going ahead if they like it or not at this point.

My expectation is that the Cineplex deal will be kicked into the long grass and the Cineworld share price can move forwards as i feel it is held back simply because the deal includes a large contingent of cash that vastly now is over the price. If the offer can be changed to all share that would make a difference but i suspect that would not fly with Cineplex. as i understand the AGM today is formality but but surely they must give some updates on this specific matter. Any news would help steady the share by 57p looks a reasonable entry for today so bought a little.

Q4 has previously been discussed by board as the date for clearance of La India that is wholly owned and even if they decided to clear today the mine kit would not arrive.
What is most exciting for Condor is the stream of RNS further derisking :
Purchase of last 30% of land not owned but in progress
final technical documents completed
Decision on mining (2nd hand local vs China)
Decision on to "Toll mine" or "not to toll mine"
Therefore these are all potentially due over the coming months along with others that will have a huge impact on the certainty of the direction and scale of the profitability given we have AISC below $700 and probably with oil so lower maybe considerably lower and POG at $1700 and expected to climb
I think most of those decisions have been made, apart from confirming if the China option works better than the local option and the path of least resistance and even if Jim Mellon and Ross Beaty (Billionaire investors) want to do a raise or not to speed up the companies progress
To me the rocket would be a toll refining deal and given Calibre closed its mine to do a bit of "reorganisation" that might come to fruition sooner than we think and give us all the cashflow needed much sooner to potentially do without an equity raise, although i suspect the latter will happen but at a lower amount and lower dilution given the share price could be a magnitude north by that point.
The Mako Mining comparison and Calibre comparison all point to a minimum 1/3 undervalued against peers and The Bank of Canada report also confirms that
Then there might be further exciting news about suitors who must be circling Condor at a distance but most will strike at point production certainty
We know Rio Tinto entered Nicaragua looking for options to buy through Calibre tie up and that bodes well for Nicaragua miners, and in particular Condor for obvious reasons
There are many positive RNSs in the next few months that will close that gap.
dyor

Remember government policy was to not overwhelm NHS. They fixed that by spending £100ms on white elephant pop up hospitals filled to an inch of their life with ventilators. the only restrictions i suspect we will see on the future is an ebb and flow of social distancing and airports will adapt with thermal cameras, masks and maybe testing but so far no country has adopted that. Just like sars/mers etc this is likely to fade away as people will just be more wary and alert.

At same time as Greece many destinations now opening June 1st with only “social distancing” in place and Lufthansa is filling void with annoucement of 106 services resumptions. Expect UK airlines to reconsider their plans to open more destinations by July or miss the expected boom in bookings.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2020/05/11/lufthansa-group-to-serve-106-destinations-in-june/

Greece have leapfrogged all over holiday destinations to now set re-open for Tourism as June 1st. Expectation is now more countries to bring forward plans as restrictions continue to get watered down. Things opening a lot sooner and airlines will fill the void.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8309709/British-tourists-holiday-Greece-without-restrictions-June-1-says-Greek-government.html

Surely one of the biggest reasons is the possible $1.6bn purchase of Cineplex which is now grossly over the odds and should either be renegotiated for a 1/5th of that value or Cineworld could likely not keep up with debt repayments if Social distancing means cinemas are half empty for the next 6 - 12 months? The worry is the management re-affirmed their desire to complete the deal over last week but it must be the biggest overhang for Cineworld to move forward and not get stuck in the 50s and 60s?

What is interesting and a little depressing is Aston have pushed back their electric version to 2025 when if anything they should be bringing that forward. when you have Tesla valued at $160bn and less than 15 years old and Aston valued at $750m you have to ask questions. Tesla could buy Aston with loose change and look to convert the new DBX SUV to be electric as frankly Tesla cars are awful looking. would bring together two great companies. Tesla great for Tech and batteries and Aston for design and brand. it will not happen but there must be serious value if Aston reshape their language and go all in for electric or hydrid (as they mention). very tempting investment but also have some concerns with their language in regards to electric. Good order book of 2500 cars so reasonable runway and new F1 investor should help.

Just to get this right we had a £536m rights issue last month at 30p, new management with skin in the game, a new Aston Martin DBX SUV on the cards and a plan to go back into Formula 1 and company is valued a little over £650m, so after deducting right issue the brand is valued at nada? Update on wednesday. Given the huge cash influx and i would consider a clear strategy there seems to be a lot of people thinking this company is a lot worse? Am i missing something? how is the £536m planned to be used or is it propping up debt?

Certainly i like this space somewhat and will do more research however my simple question is that today the Market Cap of Term is £38m but in its most recent report it states the value of its investments to be £17.9m as technically TERN is an investor in companies. My question is simply to understand the discrepancy and that might be down to the valuation reported to be well below what the market thinks (which is odd as most investment companies tend to want to price as much as possible) or am i simply interpreting this information wrong.

Was reading on another bulletin AVFN someone talking about knowing locals etc and pointing to plant equipment could be from Aigua Fria? Not sure what to make of it but thought i would add into the mix as someone might be more knowledgeable. Certainly things are starting to motor and those proverbial ducks are lined up, looking very plump and very close in range. Hopefully see the 50s sometime this week.

As i understand Greatland signed a Farm-in Agreement with Newcrest Operations Limited where Greatland will get 30% cut. Does anyone have a timeline when that gold will be permitted, a mine built and when cash might be delivered to Greetland. I am in a few miners includind Condor Gold and looking to diversify across a few more UK listed goldmines. also is there any expected rns on the horizon?

Almost opened at nearly £1.99 but under pressure now but likely to end the day in the blue as airlines put down concrete news of exit and consumer condidence grows.

I could not see on the Serabi website but The Palito project us producing 40k announces currently but how much gold do they have permitted to extract, for how long and what is the indicated known levels of gold from their drilling and therefore an indication of future gold to be extracted. In regards to the Coringa project how long is the permitting expected to take and any expected RNSs coming up? Any assistance welcomed. Im currently invested in Condor Gold that is also listed on Aim so looking around at further investments in Uk listed gold miners, ideally those producing or about to produce as in the latter case.

Looks that IAG are bullish and plan to return more planes to the sky in July than most others according to reports.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton1/2020/05/10/european-airlines-resume-flights-for-summer-travel-at-different-paces-but-british-airwaysiag-air-france-klm-and-lufthansa-may-converge

“British Airways owner IAG tentatively plans the largest increase, operating 45% of capacity between July and September, the third quarter. “

Looks that airlines will be coming back online in greater numbers than first thought. I presume the “14 day quarantine” will be short lived if this is the case but understand the EU and UK are currently working on a reciprocal deal so all European countries agree the same rules so suspect any quarantine will be for June while other practical steps are implemented. Looking positive and not before time.

If you read any of Mark Childs company presentation his aim is to prove up a 5m ounze district

http://www.condorgold.com/sites/default/files/presentations/Condor%20Gold%20EGF%209-11%20April%202019%20Final%20.pdf

which given he refers to “drowning in targets” often i understand will not be hard but literally cost of drilling. My understand Condor is different to GGP as Condor stopped exploration many years ago to focus on getting the permit to extract and becoming a major gold producer in Nic. Condor has spend 8 years and spent £60m of money drilling and mapping the area spent and a further 4 years getting a permit to extract 1.12m ounze of gold for starters. Permits are gold dust and not sure if GGP has any permits yet? However Condor is worth just £36m although £1bn of gold is literally within touching distance. GGP is valued 9 time Condor today around £293m but i would consider Condor years ahead as until gold is permitted and extracted its just dirt. GGP i understand is a gold exploration company only today and no revenue. Just looking over GGP makes me happy i am in Condor as while Condor will be pouring gold in as little as 6 months if a toll mining is agreed (as we have permit and own land to Mestiza open pit) or maybe 12-18 months for its own mine GGP look to exploring and then farming out so will have only little upside of gold sales. Please Compare Condor and GGP closely and interested in your comparison as i do not know the vital statistics as just skimmed over GGP but i do know that gold explorers about to become gold producer is a good place to be.