Member Info for Simms45

With China/US tariff sabre rattling, scuffles between China and India on border, HK bashing, Taiwan skirmishes, South China sea Flashpoints i get a sense Gold is going to continue its ascendancy. Any of this would be big news before but Covid has become a great cover for nefarious activities all over the world.

My other view is that October is actually the date mine infrastructure is being built and all logistics contracts are starting at this date. October is more than just rubber stamping exercise but kicks off 1000s of jobs so closing soon. Bear in mind Ethiopian government goes to polls later in year, originally penciled in for October so if you were a government going into elections and you need lots of positive newsflow i just sense that the funding close will happen very soon, albeit personally dont mind if is end of June/July but the government do care as the last thing they want is bad press of mismanaged money and $20m spent on a mine that is not happening. Political ramifications are big for first public/private partnership deal in gold mining in Ethiopia. I just sense some misreading of details as i have a feeling delays have been controlled by Ethiopian government so they can maximise the positive news flow that the government are getting on with major projects and Gold is understood as a store of wealth. I think the government have been organising the timelines. Conspiracy but i just sense people might get a nice surprise in next 4 -6 weeks.

I agree but also worth noting this snippet from the 24th April update that does rather put pressure on ANS or the government are threatening to swap them out and then ANS risks losing a massive windfall from increase in gold price since it was announced.

“b. the Government is now collaborating directly with ANS Mining and its shareholders to reinforce Project momentum. In addition, as an important new development, the Government has now also advised both KEFI and ANS Mining that it will this quarter look to arrange either direct or indirect funding into TKGM from its investment institutions for the required amounts if there is any further delay in investment via ANS Mining;”

For me this was a key change of interest as its a pay up or shut up time and the government means it. The government have already pumped in $20m on power and roads and they need positive news going into an election year so they could spin this as a positive for the country go announce a bigger stake for people.

£3.5m in the bank today and just re-reading this highlight from the recent update RNS on 11th May. So far so good!

“ The Placing proceeds will provide the Company with the funds to enable the closing of the c.US$260 million project financing of the Company's Tulu Kapi Gold Project. This includes the anticipated initial closing of the Project level equity in Q2 2020, along with that of the identified debt funding in October 2020, which was set out in the Company's announcement on 24 April 2020 and included details of support for the local investors available from the Ethiopian Government if required. The start of full gold production at Tulu Kapi remains targeted for 2022.”

Great article that Ethiopia have used common sense and side stepped the whole Covid meltdown.

https://www.ft.com/content/7c6327ca-a00b-11ea-b65d-489c67b0d85d

Country has stayed open and you might be aware Tedros who heads WHO was from Ethiopia so they implemented temperature checks early in airports, social distancing and a message everytime you make a phone call to remind you of washing hands and distancing all for virtually no cost. Shame UK did not follow and save billions of pounds. Anyway i guess TK should be less likely held up as Covid has not taken hold in Ethiopia, banks are open and government operating normal. bodes well for ANS coming through as at least Covid cannot realistically delay the project.

If news from advfn is correct and a mention of being down to last 10% of land Purchases and the surprise early raise then i guess we might see a tasty RNS for completion of land purchases sooner than expected and maybe the mine deposit purchase RNS. maybe the £6.6m + toll mining deal = equity we need by year end for going to production. Maybe also a bit of that cash will restart drilling to prove up 3-5m ounze district. Thats food for thought.

Interesting according to data almost double the number of buys than sells so presumably some action off exchange but hopefully looking good for next few months and positive update on Saudi and TK.

Vol. Sold 9,287,375
Sold Value £95.66k
Vol. Bought 16,337,863
Bought Value £168.28k

Looking at buys and sells today you see a large number of PIs buying and what looks to be almost a single seller who has maybe offloaded .7-1m shares this morning and that overhang is lifting slowly. clouds will clear and then sunshine again.

If investor had been replaced that is material information and would need to be an RNS. If you mean he has a backup plan then your probably right but ANS would be crazy to walk away given the project value. Also the RNS confirms from Ethiopian bank that the debt/equity funding is agreed so either the bank of Ethiopia is lying or they are not. its a fascinating read to go through last 2 years of RNSs as it illuminates all the twists and turns and while i would be very disgruntled buying before recent raise anyone buying in is close go RAB capital investment (in the grander scheme of things) and who was going to invest £3.5m in cash without a doing a shed load of due diligence as if Rab capital sensed the mine was not happening they might as well go in the back garden and burn £3.5m. Lets just assume Rab capital are no mugs and as Harry repeated in recent Q&A “i think its a 10 bagger and then again for Saudi”. For a ceo to say that is pretty ridiculous but he did.

Market cap is £17m and we have £3.5m in the bank. Happy days and anyone who followed an explorer it Normally takes on average 10 years to bring to production and £50m+ to be spent. Fortunately Kefi snd predecessor has spent £50m+ and we are now at the point of massive 140k ounze mine at $800 AISC already getting built in relation to Ethiopian govt laying road and sorting power. Not sure but go looking for a mine producing these numbers find me a mine with 10 years lifetime for less than £200m+ so if by chance this comes together and gold is around $1700 investors today will one day be sitting on a 10x return because this last raise is all we need to give us a shot at that ticket. if TK goes to the wall its a bad day at the office but someone will buy out Kefi for probably more than the market cap today. After maiden resource for Saudi he could sell that alone for more than market cap today. Am i wrong but i just sense Kefi will be one of those stocks people will have wished to have found around 1p. Think of all those saying that about Ggp who bought in 6 months ago and they are years and years from any production and valued at £320m so maybe just maybe Kefi has some legs.

I wonder like many the reason for this slightly early raise than expected? Firstly it might indicate a faster execution of their mine plan. Most expected raise later in year. It probably means land purchases are speeding up. It probably also came forward for key investors to load up on cheap shares. However, and i admit banging drum, if Calibre come out of lockdown and do a toll deal we could be £1 territory and then if that happened pre raise investors like Jim would have paid double. I just sense the earlier raise is for a lot of positive reasons. They do not need £6.4m swishing around if production decision is eoy so for me this earlier raise is very promising.

Someone was in a hurry this morning as i count around 7 x 100k share sales at 40p or below and before 9am. That would normally be pretty dire but shares were quickly soaked up and we are now at 43.5. Once overhang is over it will continue the rise. To lths this is par for the course as most are not selling a share until the end game probably within 18-24 months at a decent multiple of today. Buy on dips and hold as the ride will be worth it in the end.

Those 100k sells could have been stop losses and sadly for them they are seriously out of pocket as share price continues to rise. will not see the 40s again so enjoy while it lasts

You buy in 20k share bundles because you can often get fixed price, as opposed to go into the open market and pay more than you want. Made that mistake once. 50p here we come.z

He said any first mover gets enquiries with a wink in the Q&A so he has has plenty of lowball interest i am sure but he is no mug. My only issue i see is Harry does not today have enough of a holding or does anyone know more as i think he had something like 1.5% post dilution. For all his slog he needs more skin in the game. Warrants or bonus does anyone know. I dont like to say it but i think Kefi will go balastic later this year if and when funding gets completed and i mean multiples of today and then some. Even my lowest valuation of Kefi was £40m and even that is multiples of today. Really Harry must have seriously upset a lot of people to have his market cap smashed.

Buying at close to placing at 40p is a great opportunity but while i was buying price kept on rising so this will not last for very long and 50s and 60s will be in sight again. Extra £6.4m in the bank is very helpful to the business to the keyword was “deposit” on a mine so that is quite interesting. However one question i have is who knew and sold yesterday as that should be investigated. I suspect MCs rather non plussed look in recent video about price rise was because this raise had been in the planning probably for weeks, if not months so he knew he might get some backlash if price appeared to be too discounted but its hard to pick a time and glad it was now and not when price was lower. One step forwards and could be close to 50p very soon and especially if another RNS is in the pipeline.

Absolutely agree Positive Vibes. I think the smart money is hoovering up the shares as it just looks too good on the balance of probabilities. ANS can be swapped out in this bull market given the investment for their stake is so low given new NPV. China would fall over themselves. I think Harry In his Q&A mentioned plan C and that is he has another investor to buy in if ANS do not commit. However what investor group would not commit given the huge windfall profit potential.

While not great in terms of drop to lths this is a walk in the park and will recover quickly. I am still pondering if the raise of £6.6m is more than they need and perhaps this and toll mining is all required to production and no more dilution. I cant work out this rather odd number as its more than they need as far as i can see. Anyway given chance to buy at placing buy buy buy as i have just done :)

What i was also impressed by Harry for was normally for bank debt financing Kefi puts up 30% equity. However Kefi were able to use historical spend on getting to this point to be counted as equity. Its a bit like building a house and bank accepts the foundations you laid over 10 years are good enough to advance you the remaining 70% debt. For me that is impressive as most miners have to raise that 30%. This is from the debt finance rns
“ Company has also received confirmation that the National Bank of Ethiopia has now registered the past investment in the Project of US$49 million in the period to 31 December 2014 by TKGM, which inherited the rights and obligations of the historical work and spending by KEFI Minerals (Ethiopia) Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of KEFI. Subsequent pre-development investment will also be registered in due course, relating to expenditure during the period 2015-2019 in the lead-up to the recent commencement of Project development activities. This is important because this past investment ensures compliance with the 30%:70% (equity:debt) capital ratio as approved specifically for foreign direct investment into the Project.”

That is sweet if you ask me? Also note 2015/2019 will be added and presumably some wedge will come Kefis way.

What i am sensing is a lot of new investors coming into Kefi. Certainly i am one of them and the news today is welcome but recommend all new investors watch the last Q&A that will go into the details and gives you a sense of Harry and judge whether hes a charlatan or perhaps just a lesser part to getting TK over the line later this year with a government and large consortium in a country slightly squeezed. TK is the biggie but with the market cap so low at £15m and £3.5m landing friday to make sure Kefi is fully paid up through to production and having spent 12 years of mining agony and around £50m invested to get to the final signoff i just sense against the many who disagree and severely burnt that it will happen this year. So many reasons why but have said before. i just feel Kefi is not necessarily the one who is most keen to get this over the line as it appears to me Ethiopia as in desperate need for serious foreign exchange and steady income. I can see a very strong 3-6 months ahead if we get traction and probably a strong head of steam after the £3.5m lands as that will derisk the project from Kefi point of view as no further dilution required. Then is just the small matter of the Ethiopian government and the consortium to look at their small investment and notice that on day 1 their return is 2-3x on the small initial investment. In some ways I hope the Ethiopian government take out ANS so country can benefit further and if ANS mess around i fully expect it. Somehow the economics just look too good for this not to happen.