Member Info for Simms45

The vote today is going to a committee with 5 Democrats and 2 Republicans.

Dodd and Gray are democrats.

There is nobody else voting.

We have confirmation the forced seller is gone who was trickling stock out for at least last 6 months and massively depressing the price. Time for a proper re-rate. Well done to those who went against the grain and bought more at .42 earlier today. Firmly back in the 50s and onwards.

SCA 6 would legalise all sports betting ONLY in all Indian casinos on tribal lands and at the four racetracks including Webis.
Every bet will be taxed 10% for casino bets and 15% for online bets
Estimate of $200 million to $500 million a year in Tax revenue (some sources estimating as high as $2 billion)
1% of all revenue would fight problem of gambling and gambling addiction
22 States in US have already legalised sport betting
20 states are pending

Bill Dodd & Adam Gray are Democrats. First pass vote won with a landslide 9-3 victory down partisan lines with 9 democrats for and 3 republicans against after focus moved to promote how this bill can help fill the California $54.3 billion budget deficit to stem public service closures and continued appeasement of Tribal casino concerns

The vote today is going to a committee with 5 Democrats and 2 Republicans

Why did Dodds and Gray offer a 2/3 majority vote today? The reason i suspect is that exactly the same as in the previous vote this will be a partisan vote and basic maths tells you that if all 5 democrats vote in favour and 2 republicans abstein or vote against we have the 66%.

Even if you have 4 democrats (1 abstein) and 2 republicans voting against you get that 2/3 majority. The maths has been done and they would not be bringing this to this committee if they did not already know the outcome.

The tribal impact is simply around litigation and Dodds has already said that in the lead up to the Senator signing they will continue to talk with Tribals to likely make further concessions to avert any litigation.

Tribals will massively benefit from this change and their tactic is negotiation to try and extract more concessions over the coming few weeks before it is signed into the public vote but Tribals stand to benefit massively.

Sports Betting is coming to California imho!

I think given Dodd and Gray are democrats and whom are bringing this legislation and the vote tomorrow has 5 democrats and 2 Republicans voting you should expect that Dodd and Gray would have done their homework and would not bring it before the committe unless they had the support they need. Generally from other votes Democrats are slightly more pro gambling. With a 2/3rds majority needed that looks pretty strong given the very need of large revenues to fill the void in budget . Given Sports betting is going on regardless they can decide keep it hidden or benefit from taxation and keep California from cost cutting. with 23 states already allowing sports betting and 20 more pending its looking pretty positive.

They have been dripfeeding stock into market for last 6 months, and likely reason we are seeing a consistent but slow rise, when normally if there was no background seller the share would spike upwards to a realistic market valuation. We will know when they have finished when share spikes upwards as opposed to being walked up by the MMs who are trickly stock as we go. must be close to finishing but great times for anyone looking to buy larger quantities as MMs will make the stock available, steady as she goes up to 1p.

Interesting to see Spreadex building their position from 4.99% to 6.28%. I wonder why they might have done that :)

sorry i meant the 25m sell. The 65m reversed sell distracted me but it was someone playing with the market so once that is understood i suspect a big leg up is on the cards if we get confirmation Ebioss are out for good.

hi ManfromUruguay. not that it really matters but someone buying 65m would have paid a massive premium and there would have been no stock so order would not have been filled. if it was a book build that would be only possible in a falling market. Therefore it was almost certainly a sale that would have taken many days to fill. Its hugely encouraging the stock has changed hands and why i think it was likely Ebioss. The trajectory is upwards although i think a few pis have not spooked as we speak but end of day this will settle as there was also a reversed sell just a moment ago that was fake. someone playing with the markets.

Hopefully that 25m sell at .47125 was the last of Ebioss that finally got filled with buy orders Hopefully a big re-rate coming soon.

Just on fundamentals this is massively undervalued. Group turnover increased nearly 50% to US$ 8.06 million and gross profit increasing to US$ 1.79 million in the 6 months to November and we are at market cap of £10m only? That is crazy even on fundamentals for a sports betting business in California. if this was listed in the US this would be a multiple of today. If you add in Webis holds a golden ticket of a license already for sports betting and a strong position in race horsing that is directly in the line of benefiting from the potential changes to law. Assuming the vote goes through this tuesday night its anyone guess where this will end up wednesday as the bigger players in Nevada will probably come knocking. Certainly its a multiple of today just based on fundamentals in medium term. happy to see company rise on fundamentals and vote tuesday night is looking very positive.

Fundamentals are clearly undervalued but was more intrigued by the arbitrage profit scenario purported that i sense is probably not quite as it seems but of course buying on fundamentals make sense. if the delisting happens before July 15th then there is a month or so for this to find a level. however if all pis are in the UK most might sell on mass pre delisting simply beacuse the costs or selling in HK is a hassle and a relatively high cost. therefore do you not think that in the lead up to the delisting a lot of pis will be exiting before the move? for those relying on the higher valuation in HK might they also not sell on day 1 of the new listing ? I just feel New China needs to raise money in HK to find an investor base so the the transition of investors from the UK to HK goes smoothly. it is very uncommon for such a move simply because of the damage that can happen. liking the fundamentals but i sense a delisting normally precipitates a lot of behaviour by pis as £200 fees etc are not going to be great if you hold less than £1k of shares in New China.

so you do not think they are not planning a raise as they go onto the exchange for BOD etc? Most companies would want to increase their local investor base as it not much good if all of them are in the UK selling apart fro BOD? if i was the CEO i would raise £xm as to reach the £50m valuation and therefore there is no arbitrage profit? looks too good be true at the moment and while clearly New China is way undervalued anyway i do wonder if the CEO would not mind bagging £10m-£20m for the company as opposed to making his UK investors better off who have largely sold New China into the floor and the reason New China have been largely forced to move as they feel unloved. just a suspicion although if the price rises to 8p then that would close the gap but spread is pretty hefty but i hope you are right as i have a little punt on this just to see how it pans out.

every source i am reading does paint a picture that the concessions Tribals secured will be enough for this to go through. Given 15 states have already legalised sports betting California is simply losing tax revenue and opportunity to other states that are getting ahead. It does seem as if the moons are aligning on this one and even without Tribal vote there looks to be enough support for majority vote win regardless. However Tribals have plenty to gain so i feel they are going to fall into line or if they know the vote will go through make a symbolic no so they can look to have been in opposition although they probably were not.

if i was management i would not look to leave money on the table in the UK if i did not have to. if the shares are 5p today and someone has worked out the minimum price they will open is equivalent to 11p (yet to see those workings) then surely the management would look to sell additional ordinary shares up to a value so the pis in the UK are diluted and therefore the net effect is no difference in the share price as such. Just trying to understand why a company will delist from one exchange and move to anoether and enable shareholders to double their value. any more concrete information available?

Certainly a five day bull market in IAG is very strong so i have trimmed my holding and banked healthy profit but many talk of a V shaped recovery still being possible and with all the trillions of cash sloshing around the rally will continue. I would watch out for Brexit creeping along and when the furlough lights go out so i suspect a draw in of breath at some point but so far newsflow just keeps getting better and hence nothing has burst the rally.

as i understand anyone holding shares in the UK will be transferred to holding shares in HK. Therefore am i right in thinking not only are the shares no longer going to be traded on AIM but will only be able to sell those shares through HK/China? If and when that happens how easy will it be to buy and sell those shares?

And to help enjoy the weekend you only have to start reading about the wall of government cash about to be unlocked post Covid into green tech to know some of this will find its way into Eqtec. This is E130bn euros from Germany announced today and other European governments are announcing similar stimulus :
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-05/germany-s-recovery-fund-gets-green-hue-with-its-focus-on-climate
I have a hunch not only are quotes going to get the green light but the Eqtec phones are going to start ringing a little more often. Have a good weekend.

and recommend new investors who have not read this report from Align Research to do so alongside the other report below comparing Eqt to PHE as it looks compelling when you then compare values of respective companies.

http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Align_Research_EQTEC_March_2020_Update.pdf

I agree the point on the "potential sales pipeline" but i am probably more confident than not that some will come off. Even if 1/3 of the pipeline comes to fruition todays valuation of £19m is ridiculous given the patents protecting its technology and its proven model with ongoing clients. The money largesse about to be spent after Covid in Europe and the UK will be focused heavily on clean tech and the pendulum has swung and big generators of waste are now facing massively rising costs to get rid of that waste so on top of the moral and probably legal basis for changing their ways you also now have a financial reason. The latter is key as while governments can subsidise investment it is really the point where companies can make money from manure that this goes into a different gear. if we get an RNS of a new project, confirming the pipeline strength then the re-rate will be far swifter than it is today as it nudges up slowly. personally i think the holding position today should be £50m and subject to traction and profitability a multiple of that valuation again.

i find it hard to believe that that a company with a potential sales pipeline as big as Eqtec with proven technology is not worth a very large multiple of todays valuation of £18m and can imagine big energy companies will be keeping an eye on them but at the moment they are simply valued to low for anyone to show interest. they need to get to £100m before any majors show interest. If you look at Powerhouse Energy they have only just got planning for their first waste to energy plant with PEEL and now they need financing so that is years away. The problem with these mega projects is the lead time and investment. Eqtec plant are a far lower priced investment and you could potentially see 1000s of these globally in all manner of situations. Local councils and businesses are under huge pressure to show some action on waste so this is a easy and low cost way for those to deliver something and make a profit with credits and putting energy back into the grid, if they do not use the power themselves to create a self sustaining business operation.