Member Info for Simms45

Also nosing through the director purchases Harry put £147k into the company on the 6th January 2020 buying at 1.25p so he puts his money where his mouth is, only sadly to sell a wedge to Rab capital for half that 5 months later. I am a little surprised Harry does not appear to have a bigger stake as his holding is only 25,981,314 shares so today worth £240k so he must be looking at 10 bag just to make that a sensible return for his many years of work, many unpaid, on this project. We will quickly see within 2-3 months how things pan out as a perfect storm could easily see the company valuation being £40m+ just for starters and realistically after signoff double that again because you know that within 2 years the project will be operating at 140k ounces a year which is a hell of a lot of gold and close to $2bn topline revenue and hence why it might well account for the biggest % of Ethiopia GDP and why it has to work for the country. Really seems too good a risk/reward investment. looking forward to next week as other investors spot that the production ounzes vs enterprise value is too low not be looked into seriously. when people are looking at explorers that will then take 8-15 years to take that to production and look at KEFI almost with spitting distance in mining terms of first pour you really have a once in a lifetime opportunity. Obviously people will look at risks as well but even if all they had was the concession it could be flipped for double the market cap today to someone else to take privately.

Spread is wide but you can often get close to mid price either through buying certain block sizes or setting limits. Looks that stock overhang is rapidly depleting so with maiden resource coming end of June and ANS put up or shut likely end of June you need to place your bets on the outcome relatively quickly. Post the AGM on the 29th i can see this motoring as things will fall into place. The ANS consortium is made of 13 major businesses in Ethiopia so you can imagine Covid has knocked them around and conserving cash. However i just sense with 13 in the consortium some might take out another or new ones brought in but the money will come and KEFI funded to end of year and likely no further dilution. the 1 1/4 hour webinar QA really tells you everything between the lines and given Harry has taken no fees since start of year, did not take any fees for many years and has put in more than taken out for me covers his integrity. This could be the fastest rising stock over the next 12 months if those two issues resolved because as soon as funding closed if by October we are guaranteed first pour end of 2022. You can then start to cash that gold and even sell it forward. We are talking a value today of around $40 per production ounze vs $1750 today. That is vast gap when $1000 is the free cashflow. If maiden resource in Saudi comes off no one has even valued that. Harry says as big as TP and Saudi can fasttrack mine build so instead of average 15 years from exploration to first pour he is talking 2 years. Crazy if true but Saudi is a place where if govt want something to happen they simply press the button and Harry says financing is simple by comparison. Im just focused on closing in october that is rubber stamping and we should get heads up if thats going go happen far sooner.

I had never heard of KEFI until i read the SP Angels report that covered all AIM gold explorers and was intrigued just how bad things were and was amazed that a gold about to be built could be valued as if they had no chance. None of my research gives me an indication of that. The AGM of 29th will rubber stamp second tranche of recent raise and then no new dilution going forwards as far as Harry mentioned. Of course delays are not impossible but mine borrowing is pretty sizeable so expect that will lubricate a decent mine build. Also AISC was when oil was probably $60 a barrel. Therefore AISC in reality could and probably should be lower but dyor and share findings.

PUR i recently sold out of as i feel the valuation is now fair so less upside. they might double in 12 months. GGP i think is slightly frothy based on its it point in the exploration cycle and how long it will take to get to production. Condor Gold has definitely got a long way to rise over coming 6 months so have my biggest holding here but i think KEFI is one of those projects that will come off. Africa has levels of corruption, i am a little concerned about the mine cost that could factor in some massage payments but in reality that is par for the course and probably a good thing to get this mine build to stay on track. They have already started building some aspects of the mine so it has begun in all earnest. plenty of very successful gold mines in Africa so i do not think the risk is so great given the location of most of the worlds gold mines in Democratic Republic of Congo etc. Ethiopia by comparison is far less corrupt as i understand. I think the biggest mistake of Harry was putting KEFI on aim and not TSX or where there is a bigger audience of investors in mining companies. anyway we will see how this pans out but at this price level i do not see so many downsides and how often do you get to invest in a gold mine with $1.7bn of indicated gold with a mine build started (funding needs some final push) and a company behind this valued at £12m. you just need to sense if the project will happen or not and if you think its going to happen then it makes no sense how KEFI are valued at this level. I am really missing something is what i keep asking myself but nobody has yet said anything that i have not taken a view on.

As you say the government will solve the issue so whether ANS walk or invest it does not really matter. The stock market just needs confirmation. There is so many investors who would pony up the cash these days to take a stake like this and expect Harry to be lining that up as he mentioned plan b and c in the webinar. Plan B is the government filling the void and plan C is a new investor so he is thinking ahead. All thats important is that we are shovel ready and once final closure the company is potentially open to takeover as you are talking about $1.7bn of proven gold resource over 7 years to start with and with a AISC of $800 this is almost leaving $1000 free cash flow. This mean the repayment of capital investment would barely take 1-2 years. Many think gold will rise further and KEFI as far as i can see is one on of the most leveraged gold prospects around that are already at a critical stage. I will just keep on buying at these levels.

I have been in Condor Gold for two years and learned a lot about time and how long everything takes go come to fruition so KEFI 8 years of pain is not dissimilar to Condors 12 years. However KEFI are in the final slog to build the mine and within next 3 months you should have closure on the ANS investment and the maiden resource for Saudi project. Certainly i sense a little more looseness in the management team and that might explain some pain and i worry a lot Harry does not have a big stake but not dug around but its a nationally important project to the country, especially exports and foreign Currency. I also re-read the SP Angels comparative again and its actually only $11 per indicated ounze in the ground and given gold is $1750 and we are close to mine build the gap is so vast that the valuation is more akin to a potatoe farm. Bear in mind those further away from production can be as high as $595 per ounce for Shanta Gold. if the finance gets over the line market valuation should for a starter be 3-4 times today.

The other reason why i think a toll deal might come sooner is Ross and Jim might be less inclined now to load up on stock as its higher than it was last month so they get less bang for their buck so you might find Ross and Jim onside frankly now to do the toll deal as they can see that a toll deal will see this stock rerate massively and ultimately the cashflow means Condor can go for the biggest mine they can afford and maybe not take the smaller option. The share price move does change a lot and as we get closer to £1 i am more inclined to think toll deal and production for a bigger mill is on the cards. If shares were low priced then Jim and Ross could smell the money so MC, almost slowing down process, is really helping the pi position so another great move by MC to protect pis. Not many gold stocks care for PIs normally and look to dilute them to kingdom come when cash in close. here you have an honourable captain leading the pi charge.

Watching webinar today the ANS consortium are serious and do believe that Covid and cash squeeze in Ethiopia has been a setback but Harry clearly states the importance to the country for exports and the government are able and willing to take over ANS. given the 1m indicated resource its not ideal but there is plenty of other possible investors but its obviously better if mine build continues to build on time and given employment etc the government see this as of national importance. I just sense this will all come together. Also the Saudi maiden resource will come june/july and he is very confident its as big or more than Ethiopia project. Also the idea it can literally get jump started and mine built in 2 years. I just sense that £12m valuation today is crazy low given the point they are at. Look at any other mining company with 1m indicated gold with finance 75% nailed down you will not find anyone under £50m so the price today is priced to fail and it just feels that the webinar today was not indicating that. Anyway still need to dig down as much as possible but seems risk/reward profile is interesting and bear in mind all their feasibility was done on $1300 an ounze and that has been smashed. Clearly i read plenty of backlash about Harry so that needs to be explored but i am conforted he said he has put more in than taken out so he is under water and needs this project to work as given his small 2% investment his payback will come from making this project happen and then selling.

I just sense the toll mining will happen. given the 8 week or so self imposed lockdown for Calibre mining to do some trimming of the fat they are most likely to want to come out of that all guns a blazing. my main suspicion was why they left a 2000 tpa on idle sometime ago and the sample testing showing 95% recovery and 12g/t head grade. Given the $1750 POG its simply almost implausible they will not take advantage of that. There is just too many positives given Rio Tinto through Calibre are a likely strategic buyer and they will want to warm up the relations and this seems the perfect way to do that. Calibre get a 10% cut of any deal so that is sweet and will probably take over management so great for salaries. The only fly in the ointment is that we need to get to around £1.50 so that Rio could make a £2 offer and that could be the steal of the century given the prospects of a 5m ounze district. Given the toll mining is still firmly in the slide deck still means is very strong chance and that could come at any moment given Calibre will be coming out of lockdown imminently. The biggest issue appears to be Ross and Jim wanted to eat all the cake and load up on more shares through a placing but if Mark can battle that corner and do the toll deal, it could mean immediate cashflow that could cover us and allow almost no dilution. it is obviously a great outcome for existing shareholders and Mark and i think just a case of working Ross and Jim over because i think they both have decent positions. This is likely to fly over the coming days and everything is just slotting into place. Really like the possibility that if they do lay their hands on a decent second hand mine this could be on site by the end of the year. that will bring forward production than opting for a china option that might get held up at any point coming into Nic. Very exciting times.

Love it when a CEO says "Its a 10 bagger" just for Tulu Kapi and double again for the Hawiah project. Given the investment to date of $50m on Tulu Kapi this is a project to watch as there is huge upside given the pitiful £13m valuation.

i was reading a recent SP Angel report and in terms of enterprise value per ounce of gold resources classed as measured
and or indicated KEFI was the lowest of any gold company in the AIM market. i cant actually see but the exact value as it was so low but it looks about $20/resource ounce in the ground. That is ridiculously low compared to its peers and it looks KEFI are close to the mine build starting. I understand some delays due to ANS but in this bull market it cant be hard to find a new partner but expectation ANS will come through. By comparison another gold miner i invest in Condor Gold ranks 6th at US$36.51/resource oz. i have been looking through the boards and watched the webinar today but also interested to get any overview from long term holders. KEFI does seem a company under the radar and CEO seems pretty straightforward.

I have taken a little holding in Shanta Gold as i have a little portfolio but i think the reason for the market not necessarily valuing Shanta is everyone hopes was in a recent SP Angel report looking at all AIM stocks. One paragraph is interesting :

“Enterprise value per ounce of gold resources classed as measured and or indicated, our analysis shows that Condor Gold ranks 6th at US$36.51/resource oz. The median rating is US$57.59/oz. The highest rated AIM mining company in this respect is Shanta Gold at US$557/oz.”

I hope this helps give a sense of where Condor investors are coming from because we have indicated resource. This is as close to a bank vault as we know damn close its there. Thats not to say Shanta does not have more but it costs a lot of money and time go get to indicated resources snd hence the recent correction. Your quite right a mine is not built and money probably not for another 12-18 months unless a toll deal is done with another local producer. However also when you look at valuation of Mako Mining and Calibre mining in $250m and $300m then you can also see that in time Condor should be comparable as its planned mine will be bigger and producing more gold. Therefore comparables stack up in country. Shanta is wholly undervalued also but from what i see they need to double down on drilling and getting the gold resources to indicated security. Also i dont know about pre feasibility studies and years and years of work to get the new concession signed up and bare in mind Condor burnt through £60m over last 12 years to get to this point so all that is not cheap.

That would be 64p opening tomorrow if that translates. What triggered the price jump in US? Im not surprised as really any small news could see this share double as its still 70% down. The two i want to hear is either cancel or reneg of Cineplex deal and fixed date when cinemas will open proper in its main territories. Both are reasonably likely and both could send shares heavily northwards. I feel the downside risk is now far less.

Its been bugging me today as i forgot but the other forced seller 12 months ago was the IFC part of the world bank that invested £3.5m at a share price of 90p back in 2014. The IFC changed strategy and literally dumped their holding all at once, no care for their investment, causing some indigestion. This was back in 2014 and i think recent investors will sense that if Condor was raising money at 90p back when this money was to be used for a PFS and pre everything really and after £60m investment over 12 years we are now still 30p less than when the IFC was investing hence the low valuation we are still at. Once the SP Angels report gets properly distributed you can expect more fireworks. Hodl

Ive been buying consistently for last 2 years through the Nadir of the downturn and no intentions to sell a single share, probably before until buyout which there will be plenty of interest once production decision is made up to first pour. Gold should rise in value and Condor has probably a 5m ounze district as Condor mentions and any acquirer will be well aware of so it will all be a question of price to prise the shares from Jim and Ross who will need a lot of convincing given over last 12 years £60m has been invested to maximise the opportunity so given valuation is less than investment to date you know its a large multiple before any serious discussions. Offers over £1.50 invited but with gold on the ascendancy and a district play someone like Rio Tinto can see Condor has probably minimum 40 years at 120k a year gold when the 5m ounzes are explored and put into indicated resource. The share price is anyones guess as the mind boggles really.

longway to go before we get close to a sensible valuation compared to peers based on indicated resource. resistance at 60p and those offloading are quickly snapped up by those who know how much further we have to go so looks like 70p will be on the cards soon. Looking forward to the gravy train of positive RNSs over the course of this year.

Its also worth noting that mid 2018 this was around 48p and shortly afterwards two long-term holders sadly became forced sellers. This was london and capital finance that went bankrupt and a fund that changed strategy so in very short space of time 10% of all issued shares were dumped on the market with no concern to price as it was a fire sale. I know other mining stocks were affected but we had a big dose . This overhang i believe was a big reason we are only just back where we were 2 years ago but massively ahead as a company. Something i learnt is to check your big investors and i believe we have a strong base (billionaires and funds). As we get to production bigger players will be looking to muscle in and build a stake so perhaps there is less concern.

Great to know. Its all about the resource as you want to project those sort of production numbers to 8 years or more confidently and ideally know there is a much bigger district play. What about additional local resource around the current mine at New Luika as that is key really?

Coloneldrake to save you time

“Enterprise value per ounce of gold resources classed as measured and or indicated, our analysis shows that Condor Gold ranks 6th at US$36.51/resource oz. The median rating is US$57.59/oz. The highest rated AIM mining company in this respect is Shanta Gold at US$557/oz.”

I hope this helps give a sense of where Condor investors are coming from.

Hopefully Shanta can build the indicated resource base and i am sure they will but that could a lot of work that Condor has done.

Please read SP Angel report comparing all AIM goldminers and you might see why investors see Condor massively undervalued. It includes Shanta Gold so will be useful read.