Member Info for Simms45

Collecting £3.5m cash on friday is rather positive in this case given without it Kefi would be in a sticky place. The £3.5m means Kefi are fully paid up to first pour of gold. However thats not to say someone offloads shares but from my perspective its a key step to get Kefi back on track and not have to pay contractors in stock that they immediately sell. Key now is newsflow and Harry to get back some credibility as he should have known closing the finance with a consortium of investors and Ethiopian government is going to take time.

Looks someone dropped around £100k of stock early this morning and with no counterparty to buy price falls until stock is absorbed and seller did not care about price they would get so they probably lost a lot of money on that. MM. Price will probably close the gap over the day as MM starts to markup and profit.

Time for a top-up me thinks but its supply and demand and now a wait for next weeks before next news before pushing back up. Never fun to see share fall a bit par for the course as shares need a pause to find new resistance and then push up again.

CEO is critical but when your talking about a £14m market cap against billions of dollars of gold in Ethiopia and the government is chomping at the bit its more a case of letting greed take hold and Harry can largely steer as everyone stands to makes £100ms once that gets over the line. As to Saudi its massive potential discovery in a country hell bent on extraction so that concession alone has serious value to shareholders as Harry could decide later this year to sell on. looks like a cracking 3-6 months ahead the way things are going.

I think a key date to watch for is the end of the Calibre lockdown as 2 months with no revenue and an idle ball mill is not great at the best of times and i wonder if Calibre closed a little too soon as i suspect Nic is still on the Covid ascendancy. Given this suspension Calibre now has more reason to strike a deal that will be win win and help Calibre and Condor take advantage of the relatively high gold price today. it would lead to a big re-rate for Condor and certainly help fill the loss of revenue for Calibre so both stand to see valuations rise. Also now share price is higher Calibre can see that Condor is in ascendency and has a production strategy. I also suspect Ross and Jim might lean towards the toll deal as i think they were possibly against but its obviously a good deal for lth as it will mean probably having the cash in the kitty by eoy. The other news perhaps soon will be land purchases and sense Covid might speed that up as cash will be king in times like today and holdouts might take it while the price is good. Profitability of Condor is ultimately far far higher than Calibre even for lower production. Calibre which has had 2 months no production and crazy high AISC is somehow valued 6 times more than Condor today so come production Condor should be worth a lot more than Calibre and the discount will narrow with each month as we get closer to production. Still a long long way i add to go but Can see to 3-6x until first pour Just based on dirext Nic comparables.

I have doubled down on research but everything Harry has said stacks up in his recent Q and A webinar. dealing with governments and large consortium is never going to be fast and i think Harry was a little optimistic to believe they behave in the same way as a bank or single investor. For £3.5m to go into the business this week they will also have done their serious due diligence as they could lose investors money very quickly if TK goes into the long grass. I think closing of extra cash is the 29th so once that is out of the way Kefi are financed for 12 months and all to play for. I just keep coming back to £14m market cap and consider £60m has been sunk by Kefi and previous owner over 12 years so i feel on steadier grounds both in terms of £3.5m in the bank and the need to make this happen, as much for Ethiopia as for Kefi. Government have already invested £20k into infrastructure so they are not going to want to build a road into a muddy field. Government would have serious egg on face so i also feel that if government does not turn the screws on ANS they will take out ANS and secure a much bigger windfall for Ethiopia given gold is $1750 and not $1250 when originally agreed. ANS stand to double/triple their investment from day 1 based on NPV so why would they not do that as they locked in a cheap entry. Hopefully this time around things will move.

As i understand RAB Capital are a new shareholder taking 12.5% stake. They will be long-term.in my view there has been an overhang of shares from those selling and not enough buyers. Its happens to the best of companies where the market cap is unhinged from its potential value. looking back at RNS i can see the pain and thats not to say more of the same might not happen but its a simple risk that either Kefi gets funding finalised or it does not and i am not even talking about the Saudi resource as thats just the cherry on top. Gla

This report was really good and on top of that whwn you look are Nic competitors like Mako and Calibre who are worth 8 times more but ultimately Condor will be a bigger producer than both it does put into light how much further we have to go. Its a little off Condor but i went through all comparables on the AIM showing the lowest indicated resource against enterprise value and one struck a chord with me given what we all know about Condor. It might be worth your while to take a look at Kefi Minerals that i had never heard of but just before production financing and silly valuation.

If the saudi and financing come together and in my view the chances are pretty good this should be more like a £100m valuation company, not £14m. The NPV is just too attractive. the AGM to signoff the RAB Capital raise is 29th and once that is rubber stamped Kefi are fully paid up for the financing and then just our ANS consortium to pull some weight. coming out of Covid Ethiopian government need this gold mine moving so i feel the weight of the country will pull behind this one.

70p and flying.

Gloves are off today. There is potential now to push up to £2.50 but happy to stick around £2.30 and wait for next positive newsflow.

Boom! £2.26 open!

Not sure Cineworld comes under non essential shop. At the moment Cinemas are lumped in with Pubs and last to open, ridiculous given all of Europe is opening mid June for Tenet etc. Hopefully Johnson come lately will get up to speed.

1st of July is smashing it :) Onwards and upwards as the newsflow is starting to fall into place. hopefully jonny come lately will get up to date and turn off ridiculous quarantine rule or make it end before July 1st. Lookings like Greece / Italy and Spain are all fighting it out go secure some summer tourism. Buns are flying all over the place but lets see who drops all nonsense rules first.

As i understand the £1.1m you refer to is not in the bank until the 26th when 18m newly minted shares are released and the market cap will rise presumably to around £2.5m or thereabouts or is that not correct? clearly if only £1.1m how long will that realistically last with so many trials ongoing and when will the next raise be? i know VAL have a past of mass dilution and pis have done badly.

Great as Cineworld has a big presence in China and China are so transparent with their reporting. They had no infections in Wuhan for months as well :) Anyway this virus will probably be gone and “jonny 2 months too late” will bo doubt be rolling out nonsense for the non existent virus by then probably. What a shambles and why exactly cant Cinemas open sooner as 2m distance is easy to fix. could still happen but like everything of government too little too late.

yes. I also question their Saudi plans as surerly they need to focus 120% of time closing Tulu Kapi but at the same time it shows he is relatively relaxed it will happen, however damaging that appears to be to his shareholding and that of pis from 1 year delay. However with maiden resource at end of June it would offer Kefi a possible exit if they wanted, certainly many millions if they sold this so i agree with Harry to get the resource and decide. Definitely in financing he should have closed a lot sooner as people can lose interest and things can go astray, incidents/secuity/covid/politics can happen and so forth so his lack of closing the deal is something he needs to accept responsibility for. I agree £4m seems higher than it should be but Harry said no more dilution and hopefully he means it but ANS have to come through or the government will take over ANS role or another partner found as with gold 1750 and not 1350 the investors would be mad not take go forward as the NPV has doubled and investment is the same. The government have already started spending i think around $20m so the government arr in and they will want it to continue. i really think the Financial closure in October will happen as gold is likely to be higher. Really though closure needs to be sooner and to get some commitment payment made from the ANS group of investors to show maybe deposit. Hopefully Harry is spending time working on alternative plans as i am sure he is not taking chances.

Also just finished reading every RNS for last 2 years, together with all presentations and video commentary. I think Harry has in reality done a very difficult job quite well. the main fly in the ointment has been the ANS mining consortium made up of Ethiopian banks and insurers dragging their feet and a few curve balls in the way of some unrest middle of last year and Covid. nothing indicates to me any serious reluctance from the consortium who must be under some moral as well as pressure from the government to pull together. October closing is still some point away to give ANS time to sort out their issues internally but it does not really hold up the plan that Harry has put together. Looking at key points on the way down one was around 5p on announcing the financing and then on the way down 1.8p seems to be a point of resistance so i sense a push up to 5p by October if matters go well or 1.8p as the holding position once the entity selling some stock is cleared out. Having read all RNS the main one will be contractors paid in shares as all other holders are long-term. Ultimately that arrangement was only forced upon Kefi because ANS did not pony up the cash earlier do Kefi were left a little high and dry but Harry managed to fix that as best he could in tricky circumstances as what contractor takes payment in shares? anyway have done my due diligence and welcome strong opposite views on anything else. I am interested in ethiopian political position and security of country and anything on ethiopia liquidity squeeze.

What i was looking at was on 1 July 2019 Harry purchased 1,431,939 ordinary shares of 1.7 pence each ("Ordinary Shares") at a price of 1.44 pence per share.

Then as you rightly pointed out KEFI instead of paying cash to contract invoices and salaries paid out shares at a share price of 1.25p. That is all great in reality as not paying cash is perfect for shareholders and these shares will motivate all parties more and align them more closely with pis. Given shares are now 30% less than they were paid in January should mean directors are feeling some of the pain. Harry got about £90k in shares so not a large amount and now worth more like £60k. If KEFI can pay contractors in shares thats great as they will all be focused on the same outcome. The only downside i suspect is these 3rd parties are more likely to need to sell the stock and hence what i see as the drift downwards given more supply than demand for sometime. This is partly explaining to me how this mismatch has happened as if 3rd parties are selling, as most likely they are to pay salaries it will only stop once those contractors are paid out or new investors mop up the overhang. I have probably done a fair bit of that myself but explains the shares being pretty defensive at .9p, something i feel is about to change quite quickly.

I know exactly how it feels to be a long term suffering shareholder of a gold miner. I also learnt hard way that from explore to production is normally 10-15 years and £60m of investment so when i look at the terrifying incline of the share over 6 years its pretty unpleasant. However all gold miners take twice as long as they say and because of the time will almost certainly meet political and big setbacks in that time frame given there is no real money to speak of. i totally get that and the dilution has been a killer and we see a sub penny stock. Surely they need to do a 10:1 tidy up at least. However having learnt the hardway also not get sucked into the excitement of a major discovery as that is great but you need to then enjoy 10 years of pain at least to get into production and $100ms of investment including mine build. However finding a stock at point of inflexion is a rare find in my view. Kefi is not on the cusp of becoming a major gold producer and i see 2 years as nothing in gold mining terms. The facts present themselves and in 2-3 months i will either be vindicated of down on this investment but i simply cannot see objectively with fresh eyes what a point we are at Covid will come and go. gla and hopefully we see 4p by October and more as frankly even £46m would be massively undervaluing the project. Always happy to hear something i have missed but i hope everyone watched the QA as its the best form of guidance you can get and questions asked are not held back.