Member Info for Simms45

"I should have the votes to be able get this across," Dodd said. "We've worked it hard, we've taken a number of amendments. At the end of the day, timing is going to be critically important to be able to get it to the ballot this year. We've done research and we believe voters in the state of California are interested."

nudge nudge wink wink translated "my mates in the Democrats have already told me they are going to vote in favour :)

Have a good weekend and watch this fly come monday, especially if Tribals see they have won.

https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/California-sports-betting-legalize-bill-budget-CAL-15350022.php

Well Dodds is bending over royally for the Tribals and offered every concession under the sun :

1> Doubling of the initial license fee to $10 million. In return, the authors halve annual renewal fees to $500,000.

Great for Webis and Tribals as they already have their licenses and makes ongoing fees lower

2> Phase-in of mobile California sports betting

Kicking some of the issues of online betting down the road and gives Tribals and Webis a headstart to invest clean up that market before the stampede

3> Betting could take place onsite at tribal casinos and horse racetracks only 1st year. Then online wagering may start with in-person registration. In September 2023, people in California can register remotely.

Wow. Tribals and Webis have monopoly for basically 2 years before online registrations. Expect BIG rush to buy anyone with a license in California to get ahead. Hello Webis! Hello WH please get out your very large cheque book :)

4> The Indian Gaming Revenue Sharing Trust Fund, which shares gaming revenue with nongaming tribes, gets 1% of the state take.

Basically Tribals get their own 1% tax on the takings. Boom for Tribals regardless of who is taking the bets. Talk about bending over!

5> SCA 6 taxes sports betting at 10% for in-person wagering and 15% for online.

Bingo. Webis and Tribals pay less taxes so if somone wants to save 5% in tax they head to Webis or Tribals casino. Now what is not to like about that?

Basically Webis is taking a free ride on the Tribals vocal opposition.

6> Significant restrictions on cardrooms so they cannot offer sports betting
6> Amendment to forces an actual player at the table to take over as player-dealer for one hand every hour. If no one accepts, the table must shut down for two minutes.
6> Each player at the table to pay a 25-cent rake per hand. Currently, the TPPPS pays the fees for the table.

Basically this levels the playing field and again Tribals are getting their way.

Protest has worked and still they want more!

Dodds has played a blinder so far and Webis is by far one of the biggest winners out of all this being a company who will happily sell up for the right price :)

well a quick Google and there are 25 hydro electric dams on the Nile and Egypt does the same song and dance everytime a new one is built. Egypt are actually the end user of the Nile and as far as i am aware they do not pay Ethiopia etc for use of their water downstream directly? Given parts of the Nile start in Ethiopia they have a right to use that water for renewable energy considerately. Obviously its important they are only using the energy of the moving water and not actually creating a massive Dam in the dry season. There is an argument that in the rainy season Ethiopia create the dam and then release that water over the rainy season and therefore benefit those downstream with a steady water level. All a lot of bluster and i am sure like all other cases will be resolved and in fact could well be positive for relations one the reality is the case. of course negotiations are always start with polar positions before they meet in the middle.

I have sent Kefi an email and if and when i get a reply will share any information i receive.

All i am doing is picking up some snippets that i can see are different to the previous RNS. Wading through RNSs is not to everyones liking but just presenting what i see as new and relevant. As to question on photo evidence that would be nice to see i agree so maybe Kefi can share something. Do you have people local to the site who could provide evidence otherwise? As to working for Harry i can confirm i am a shareholder and increasing my position so have a vested interest in Kefis future but always trying to present based on factual information we know and my interpretation. Lets see where the share price is over the coming months as i would rather be invested here than not.

Great news as it should put to bed the idea of a rights issue, ticking the underbelly of this BB. We have collected in excess of £1m in warrant cash by the side door and recent interview with David talked confidently about future cashflows so now we are just waiting for positive newsflow to sure up the order book. And we are still only valued at a silly £30m given the profit forecasts going forward. While appreciated the share price has risen it is still very far from where it will reach. Enjoy the lull before further takeoff.

And last but not least he states that at $1600/$1800 the NPV at 8% discount rate for project is valued at £131m/£175m to Kefi Shareholders. And today Kefi is valued at £17m!!!!

This does not even take into account Saudi Arabia that are about to possibly announce one of the biggest gold and copper finds in Saudia Arabia sometime in July that even at the surface looks to be as big as the largest copper mine in Saudi Arabia. The mind boggles. Just that alone is worth multiples of todays valuation.

We are fully paid up with mine build starting in 4 months and now ANS have got a $21m reduction in the budget will out their cash in as their cashout is 10 times their investment over 8 years and price of gold is up 50% since they since that originally at $1200!

Continued from below ...........

Another concern was resettling but Harry is ahead of that and within the reduced budget increased budegt for resettlement by $4m. That is a smart move to sweeten the deal and make that run smoothly "

"certain Owners' Costs increased by US$4 million, namely:

financial compensation allocations for the community, due to the introduction of more generous regulations"

Then Harry addressed security for the project and any concerns well :

"It is also notable that Tulu Kapi represents a relatively low-risk "first-mover project" for all stakeholders because of:

· its strong "social licence to operate", earned over the 15 years since the discovery drill hole;
· its location in a quiet rural community distant from "hot-security" zones such as border areas;
· the lack of artisanal mining or interest because of the geological nature of the Project;
· the relatively benign environmental setting, with a lack of sulphide material, thus avoiding potential acid-mine drainage management issues; and

This is all additional news to previous RNS. Every concern flagged has been taken on board and addressed comprehensively.

And to cap it off and almost a footnote :

"An area of over 1,000 square kilometres adjacent to Tulu Kapi has been reserved for exploration by KEFI upon commencement of development, with a view to adding satellite deposits to development and production plans."

1000 square kilometres? That is massive additional concession in the pipeline in a rich gold district? that is 33km x 33km. that is on a par with the size of Greater London!

Remember Harry could have released this in 12 days time given he said end of month but he did not and also said a further RNS is coming before the end of the month. That is very very confident. When you are dealing with a consortium as big as ANS then you must be silly to not expect delays as you are as strong as your weakest link.

In the meantime plenty of progress and more than i expected :

"Infrastructure for connection of roads & power and security upgrade:

· This long-lead activity is on schedule, so that it does not hold up on-site construction over the next two years when new roads and electricity are required.

· Road now being built into new host lands for Tulu Kapi residents to be resettled.

· Security has been significantly expanded in the Mine License Area and surrounding district."

These are key to the mine starting to be built in October so tick that box we are still on target.

In fairness to ANS i think they have asked Harry numerous times to tighten up the project finance and they were right to do so as it now appears $22m of savings have been found! I think ANS are well within their rights to hold back their investment until all costs have been screwed down as tightly as possible so i think for me this confirms the last piece of the ANS investment to start flowing.

"The 2020 Tulu Kapi Plan shows total funding needs of c US$221 million, which is US$21 million less than reported in the 2018 KEFI Annual Report of US$242 million:"

Then we have small details that you only get from this actually happening and it is not something Harry dreamt up :

"A term sheet was signed, subject to the banks' internal credit approval processes. Subsequently, key provisions which required regulatory review for foreign loans have received approvals from the Ethiopian central bank."

Then we have reality that Covid is nowhere to be seen in Ethiopia so those concerns can be parked :

"As regards the coronavirus pandemic: Ethiopia has to 18 June 2020 reported 3759 cases and 63 deaths, which is 0.5 persons per million, compared with the global average of 58 and the UK average of 621 (Source: Worldometer 18 June 2020). There have been no cases reported in the Tulu Kapi district to date."

Elections were another possible issue but these have been put back to middle of 2021 on good terms so technically that is good for Kefi as going into build at or after a possible government change might not have helped :

"On 11 June 2020 the Ethiopian Parliament extended the deadline for the next elections by up to 12 months to August 2021, "until international health institutions have deemed the threat from coronavirus to be over" (Ethiopian News Agency). Whilst some political opposition groups expressed disappointment, the parliamentary decision was overwhelmingly approved and KEFI considers this a positive step for reinforcing the health, safety and stability of the country."

Positive news overall. Could have been one of many RNSs but one is 2nd to top on my list :)

Seems to me all along there was wrangles around exactly what everyone needed to put in and this is finalised. Project still starting October so onwards and upwards.

“The senior secured financiers are fully engaged in achieving our timetable and the final details of the finance plan await confirmation of the level of commitment from Ethiopian institutional investors, which we still expect will be clarified later this month.”

We will get further RNS in next few days confirming commitment of levels of finance. Even better. Solid move upwards in share price today i expect.

One thing i am not sure about is that to move to the HK exchange we must meet the £50m valuation threshold. As of today we are £25m so at the moment we do not meet that criteria. Obviously they may be able to get around that by having a 3rd party independently value the business and that might be expected to show £50m today and HK might accept but the AIM valuation would disagree today. Does anyone have an idea how this chicken and egg scenario will play out? CNEL could, if they wanted and were allowed, simply use some of their £26m cash balance and go into the market and buy shares and cancel them. That alone without investing a great deal could achieve that. We know Double Rivers are buying in at 5p so that seems to be me the floor of a future rights issue in HK. Just think there is a bit more to this.

Hmm and now a buy order has shown up after 5pm so maybe a transaction going on behind the scenes but over 1% of the company in a single transaction so wonder who that might be if this is correct.

i have been wondering for weeks that we have been seeing good levels of buys daily but the share price has been pegged at 1p. Today after hours we just had the MM reveal a 22,123,846 sell order that has probably been filled for many many weeks for £199k.
Hopefully that is our seller gone and we could see a good re-rate begin

It is interesting that Double Rivers loan will be converted to equity at around the 5p per ordinary share, which is the current price so they would also be expecting to make a significant return on that investment.

Pursuant to the Agreement, Double River Limited, a company registered in the British Virgin Islands, has agreed to provide a loan for HKD11,500,000 (approximately £1,118,000) (the "Loan"). The Loan will be converted automatically into ordinary shares of the Company at a price of HKD0.481 (approximately 5.0 pence) per ordinary share ("Shares") on the Company obtaining regulatory approval for its application for listing on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited"

Fundamentals of CNEL are incredible for the current market cap. if you could (and you couldn't) buy this company for the current market capitalisation of £26m you could immediately pay off the loan with the current cash in the bank and keep the company for free. with estimated profits of £10m this year that would be a nice earner. Still surprised the share price has stayed so static given the expected 2 or 3 x on trading on HK to reach even a PE of 7 or £75m that would be 3x today. Some will argue that 10-15x is fairer value but i think £75m would be a fair estimation of where things might be a few weeks into moving to HK. If they have held back positive news then there is a chance this could go much higher. My immediate concern is what contingencies the company has in place to mop up the UK pis who will sell when they get the phone call from their broker explaining what is happening. However as some might expect investors from HK would buy in the UK and offer an arbitrage profit.

You just totally understand what is going on. California state have shown their hand already that they are behind this but they just want to mitigate wasted time in any legal wrangles from Tribals, however baseless it might be. i think Tribals correctly smell a little more concession left and hence the state has given them a little more time. Chances are now Tribals will now get that little extra and then its probably time for the Tribals to save face and support the bill and present themselves as saviours and helping the state to secure billions in extra revenue. If they continue to go against this bill they will lose anyway and they will be badly perceived by the public and the state as closing down schools. Tribals like to be seen as guardians so their continued defiance will backfire. Added some more to the pot.

Corero are in a great space but the cash burn does seen quite high and they have £5m of cash that could well be consumed over the next 6-12 months based on previous trajectory and their increase in sales and marketing reported. Does anyone hazard a guess when the next rights issue might be of if their revenue growth might enable them to mitigate this?

I would say we are there for a positive vote now tuesday so if you believe the following things will get interesting for Webis :

https://www.legalsportsreport.com/42013/california-sports-betting-decision-pushed-back/

"Sen. Bill Dodd’s office confirmed to Legal Sports Report that SCA 6 has been pulled from that hearing and now will be addressed Tuesday.

Proponents see the delay as a good sign. If the bill had no hope, it would have died it committee Thursday. Instead, lawmakers hope it can build momentum over the next few days.

Another reason for the extra time could be to finalize language for changes the authors plan to make to the bill. On Wednesday, representatives from each of the three major industry stakeholders told LSR that they still only had seen bullet points of the amendments."

The key is all land we actually need to build the mine is owned so therefore no delays on that front. We also own 100% of the feeder pits so that is ready to rumble. As to the amount of land we do not own (although we own the subsurface rights, just not the top layer) that will fall into place with carrot or stick as the local area needs the jobs, Covid is causing havoc to livelihoods and economy is going backwards. Therefore Covid is going to focus the mind and locals will probably apply pressure to those holding out but the land is worthless as the owners are not allowed to mine it technically. The local mayor and government will also at some point have a quiet word in their ear no doubt. Very exciting toll miling is in this presentation and spoken about as that for me seems ever more likely. Many here feel this was in the long grass but great it is still forefront in Condors mind. The key for me is that toll milling negates further dilution as it would provide the cash for the mine or more likely the cashflow for the financing for the mine build. we know Calibre stopped mining for 2 months and they have a idle mine doing nothing for at least the next year. This is obviously a win-win-win scenario. as soon as we start to get the RNSs we will be away.

Save the best til last :)

We can all now buy at the placing price of 36.5p (albeit no warrants attached) but we have to be very very close in time from a tasty RNS to land. Land purchases, toll deal, deposit on mine equipment, 3rd party interest. We have almost £10m in the kitty so that money will be put to work quickly. My instinct having rode the Condor down and up is that this is a great entry point for a probable rise back up to 60-90p depending on what RNS lands first but the newsflow should be positive.