Member Info for Simms45

Do we have an idea when the first reporting update might be in HK? Are companies listed expected to do quarterly updates or just half yearly. Certainly the economics look exceptional and if there is one sector that is hot today and over coming years it is cleantech businesses like CNEL so HK should be very positive that it is coming home to Roost. wasn’t net profit between 18-20% on average and not 30%? Sure i saw that somewhere but still an incredible future.

and late delayed buys this morning. do you think MMs were filling the order all day and enjoying the 10% spread. MMs definitely have pis over a barrel as a lot really have no choice but to sell. MMs know that but they probably have orders to fill elsewhere.

30-Jun-20 08:09:35 8.900 500,000 Unknown* 7.25 8.25 44.50k O
30-Jun-20 08:10:54 8.250 558,928 Unknown* 7.25 8.25 46.11k O
30-Jun-20 08:33:26 9.00 250,000 Unknown* 7.25 8.25 22.50k O

This share would have moved a lot faster today without the overhang seller in the background that i can see on level 2. I can only assume its Rab Capital offloading some from their recent raise. The good thing is that everyone can take advantage and take large positions at these very low prices as once that overhang is mopped up this share will take off. Lets hope Harry can confirm that replacement this month and look forward to Hawiah maiden resource in the meantime. we are £18m market cap, we are funded to Q3 and we will be drowning in cash when the financing is confirmed.

There are many pis not on LSE and know what is going on and/or have small holdings. As soon as broker calls with options, especially where trading is not possible the simple answer is to sell. What we are not seeing are arbitragers in an equivalent number buying those shares who will financially benefit. Shareholders here and the BOD should be active as its supply and demand.

it will sadly be a bloodbath for the high street and restaurant sector as i can see. No one is going to go shopping until the queuing system goes as getting into a shop can take 20 minutes and you cant try on clothes etc. once you have experienced it you are not going back. This will take a huge chunk of the retail sector out of the equation simply because most were struggling before and the Grants, furlough and Bounce Back Loans will slowly dry up by the end of the year but most are collapsing as soon as the furlough bites. i know about 30% of restaurants in my area in central London have closed for good and the high street will go the same way. Going to be very serious once we come out of the hibernation mode. as to Eve because of their strong online brand they should do well because while there were originally pure play selling online they have strategically now started to sell through other online retails such as Argos that also should do well as more retailers retreat. Government really destroyed the economy and if they had the backbone and followed Sweden to have a "common sense" approach then we would not be in quite a bad position and i doubt any difference in the Covid numbers given they were so bad anyway from a total lack of care dumping all the elderly in hospitals back into care homes with no concern with the obvious consequences. Criminal really.

It is definitely so much better to hear Kefi now dealing, what appears to be, with "Specialist Mining Financiers" who have the money and looking to deploy to projects with out all the nonsense. The huge advantage Kefi has is that they are in possession of a BFS that is the gold standard for raising finance and not many mining projects have this because of the expense to put together. I have heard many junior CEOs talk of 5 years ago when there were no investors to be seen and now getting cold called. Harry should have said before ANS had an exclusive agreement as i could not work out why he was being so generous to ANS given Harry has taken one hell of a kicking from their postering. There is an avalanche of cash for gold projects and Kefi on paper are so much further down the road with roads and power being built and all plans for the plant with the contractors and many of them paid in shares to date so they are in this deep alongside investors. Unlocking the financing deal just got a lot lot more credible.

"As a new development, based on discussions and proposals received to date from Specialist Mining Financiers and Ethiopian investors, TKGM is now also seeking to potentially reduce the number of shares it issues to any third party by increasing the amount of funds raised by TKGM from the Specialist Mining Financiers in other acceptable forms"

Great to see the CEO and CFO both exercise options early on in their option package. Granted they are in the money but I wonder what they can see that others cant but looking forward to the 22nd July Update :)

The overhang seller looks to have sold a lot of their shares this morning and i am not looking at the usual 1m shares at 1p that was replaced every few days to keep the price anchored. I can see there is about 2m share left before 1.05p ASK and then we hit the MMs who have normal market sizes of 300k shares. Hopefully things are about to step up a gear and the days of buying limitless stock without the price changing might be over.

0.988 293,548 08:32
0.99 750,000 08:30
1 1,000 08:01
1.01 11,000 08:01
1.03 65,000 08:01
1.03 724,378 08:02
1.045 120,000 08:22

There is known global appeal for project financing. If you follow junior stocks

Yes. Losing ANS was best thing Harry could have done. Economics made sense at $1250 then they sure as hell make sense at $1770. Much happier today Harry has taken this decision. It does sound there might have been some exclusive until 31st June 2020 so he might have been tied to deal. Now he can sign others up Kefi shareholders could well see project share increase. GLA this could be the start of momentum we really need. Hawiah just round the corner so could be teed up for a great run of news in July.

Things are looking up :)

“Given the robust economics of the Project we have received significant interest to provide the outstanding asset level equity and other forms of duly subordinated investment, not only from other domestic investors, but also from international specialist mining financiers. Now the deadline of 30 June 2020 has passed we will look to draw these discussions to conclusion ahead of full financial close in October this year.

"We are particularly fortunate that the gold sector is in robust health and this potential change in the Project consortium has now opened up new financing opportunities which may potentially improve our ultimate beneficial interest in the Project.

"We will not allow any distractions from achieving our target to close project financing in October this year and I look forward to updating shareholders in the current quarter."

My take on this has been That as we are seeing many pis bailing who do not want hassle to move to HK. That will increase in coming days as brokers notify shareholders of options. This audience will exit. I think todays price is close to the bottom as it seems to low given upside. On July 7th the book building price is revealed and confirmation move is happening. I think underwriters guarantee that anyway. then you have further arbitrage until listing move and probably close gap within 10% of listing price. Then depending on buzz you might get a listing push and the general consensus is for company to get a PE of 15 and could be 15-20p within 6 months. all to play for today.

i think you will find many explorers business models is exactly to find projects and once they have firmed up the find with indicated resource they packaged it up and sell onto a bigger player who has the long-term need to keep ensuring they have projects down the road to keep filling the pot. This can be done through many ways from a JV, Farm out or outright sell. When you have probably $2bn of gold and copper project then there is value created especially when the last similar sized mine completed and operational sold for $2bn. All i am saying is Kefi have options and one option is to prove up the Hawiah resource and sell that project onto another third party. However once we get that maiden resource lets see where the share price is as it should have a big impact on the business and once financing closure has happened then we will be in a very different place. Certainly if we get a big Hawiah find and get ANS over the line we are probably 5p by then. Then any further funding will be very easy for Hawiah as the momentum will be in his favour.

Assuming your current broker cannot trade the shares once they relist, several can by phone (ii, AJ Bell) there are many brokers able to trade HK shares. i am moving to Interactive Brokers as they have an online trading facility and that suits me better than phone trading. The key i understand is to start the transfer of the specific shares from your portfolio and get the SEDOL number. this will take around 3-4 weeks but once the move is complete you have complete flexibility and personally i am very bullish on CNEL as they are totally in the sweetspot for growth as pollution friendly Ethanol blended fuel etc is now being regulated globally and there is a massive lack of supply. Most countries will want their own capacity so CNEL have a huge order book for years ahead. That is set to balloon.

Funding

"Potential development funding for Hawiah is anticipated to be more straightforward than in Ethiopia because of the simpler partnership structure and the very strong local development lending institutions for this prioritised sector."

"We hope they succeed despite the current local liquidity strains experienced and other effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and we are preparing to introduce other investors as required"

"The Directors of TKGM and KEFI have resolved that, notwithstanding COVID-19, the Company remain focused on using every reasonable effort to preserve the overall scheduled target of starting gold production at Tulu Kapi in 2022 and remain focused on financial close of the Project funding in October 2020."

Takeover Potential or JV

"The potential of the Arabian-Nubian Shield has recently been more widely recognised and the world's two largest gold companies, Barrick Gold and Newmont Mining, are now active in Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia respectively"

Acknowledgement and support PIs so they know the pain

"KEFI shareholders have suffered dilution as KEFI funded the exploration, acquisition and early progress and all of us long term shareholders certainly deserve to see reward for our patience and effort. "

"The Board of Directors is mindful that our schedule setbacks have tested the patience of shareholders as well as that of the communities that host us, even though much is attributable to extraneous factors beyond the Company's control. To maximise alignment with shareholders, the Company encourages investment in Company shares by the Board and Senior Management who have, in aggregate, invested more into Company shares since KEFI took control of the Project in 2014 than they have, in aggregate, received as cash remuneration. "

"Post the period end we welcomed RAB Capital as a substantial shareholder and we are extremely grateful for the patience and support of our communities and our Governments, our principal contractors, our hard-working small organisation of highly-experienced personnel and, of course, our 1,000's of extremely patient shareholders"

Just the maiden resource for Hawiah could be sold to Barrick Gold or Newmont so i think if the chips are really down Kefi could sell Hawiah to fully fund Ethiopia ourselves. Its perfectly possible Hawiah could be sold for $38m+ given its possibly a multi billion dollar copper and gold find and a similar completed mine in Saudi was sold for $2bn. I think Harry has plenty of options open to him and if Harry wants to keep all his exploration projects then he knows he has to get on that plane to Ethiopia and start hustling and get that 2nd investor lined up.

There are risks but there are massive returns for those investors brave enough to put faith that the mine will start building in October given current Market Cap of £17m!

Below are a few choice snippets from the report that caught my eye :

Kefi

The Government of Ethiopia has already commenced construction of the offsite infrastructure (electricity and roads) required for Tulu Kapi that it is funding.

"On this basis and after taking into account that KEFI has already invested nearly all of its contribution to the Project equity, KEFI's 45% beneficial interest in Tulu Kapi only is US$185 million (approximately £153 million), about nine times the current market capitalisation of the Company."

"A number of other gold prospects have been identified within trucking distance of Tulu Kapi. Proposed exploration activity will be significantly expanded with this focus, as these prospects have the scope and potential to add substantial value by providing additional ore to the Tulu Kapi processing facility."

"The partners remain focused on using every reasonable effort to preserve the overall scheduled target of starting full gold production at Tulu Kapi in 2022 and remain focused on full financial close of the Project funding in October 2020."

"In Ethiopia, the most advanced and immediately significant exploration target is also at depth below the known deposit, in this case focused on the continuation of the Tulu Kapi deposit below the planned open pit. In our view, the potential to expand Tulu Kapi's Mineral Resource is high as it remains open along strike, down plunge and at depth. The economic potential is also enhanced by the gold grades increasing with depth as well as the ore lenses thickening, making underground mining potentially attractive. The average grade of the Mineral Resource below the planned open pit is 5.7g/t gold.

Jordan Maiden Resource "Shortly" (call it probably a week or so)

"Our most recent discovery, in late 2019, was of copper-zinc-gold-silver mineralisation at Hawiah in Saudi Arabia. The first 69 drill holes identified three distinct massive sulphide lodes which vary in thickness from 3 metres up to a maximum of 19 metres. The overall results to date were encouraging and we are working towards reporting a maiden Mineral Resource for Hawiah in accordance with the JORC Code shortly."

Good buy at 8.5p currently. Will close to 10p over coming day or days but there will be a combination of small pis exiting and HK and other traders taking up the slack for a perfect arbitrage opportunity. Trading on HK will probably be 12-15p open in 10 business days so in a best case scenario nearly a double even on todays standards. Many here including myself that this company is poised for much bigger things over coming 12 months.

Well MMs are the masters of arbitrage so buy at 9 and flip at 15 on HK. They will be hoovering up and keeping for themselves in my view but is a shame for smaller pis who will probably exit this week.

MMs got small pis against the wall. Many small pis (sub £1k) will want to sell but MMs buying at 8 and sellingbat 10. Thats not on.

Finding its feet. Soon a lot of pis will be selling up this week so hopefully will find its level and a more sensible spread. I will be holding for the 15p opening on HK :)