Member Info for Simms45

Stock looking thin on the grounds. 1.5 in sight and we could see 1.75 ASK given theres is not much stock around. amazing what can happen once a forced seller is gone. Best stocks to invest in imho as value is totally unhinged from reality.

1.45 165,000 10:41
1.45 15,000 10:43
1.5 200,000 CFEP 09:22
1.5 300,000 PEEL 10:39
1.505 200,000 SING 10:36
1.53 300,000 SCAP 10:44
1.55 300,000 WINS 10:40
1.725 300,000 STFL 10:29
2.05 186,172 09:57

Looking good. Big gaps as no stock around finally. sensible price for me always was 1.5-2.5p pre news but because of forced seller we languished at 1p for ages. Lets see the BID start to move and close the spread.

1.395 153,967 10:29
1.4 99,366 09:27
1.4 300,000 WINS 09:34
1.4 200,000 SING 10:18
1.4 300,000 PEEL 10:20
1.435 300,000 SCAP 10:27
1.5 200,000 CFEP 09:22
1.725 300,000 STFL 10:29
2.05 186,172 09:57

I am sure massively oversubscribed. Should see EQT rise well with a very large boat of cash to complete deals and move EQT fast forwards.

Certainly price is firming quickly from low of .5 this morning so high 5s are not unlikely. Palumbo will hopefully soften the pill with some RNS coming up. I think he is juggling things well and this cash will speed everything up, exactly what all pis want at the end of day and existing shareholders who buy through primarybid will have preference, however its likely to be scaled back although sneakily i did not the amount EQT is looking for. They might simply hoover up the lot and if they can deploy and grow a very large business lth should reap rewards. Great price today.

Nice gaps going up and so far our seller is not back to hold the share up.

1.295 165,857 09:34
1.3 200,000 SING 07:54
1.33 300,000 SCAP 08:22
1.35 300,000 STFL 07:56
1.35 300,000 PEEL 09:41
1.4 99,366 09:27
1.4 300,000 WINS 09:34
1.5 200,000 CFEP 09:22

Yes. Note to self. If a company appoints a joint broker sell.

Level 2 looking good now to move up to 1.25 with limited availability at 1.195.

1.195 179,736 08:54
1.195 206,087 08:55
1.25 300,000 PEEL 07:52
1.3 300,000 WINS 07:50
1.3 200,000 SING 07:54
1.3 200,000 CFEP 07:59
1.33 300,000 SCAP 08:22
1.35 300,000 STFL 07:56

MMs scalped the sellers who sold on the opening bell but price will rise today as this money is being used immediately for high return projects so it should bring forward key RNSs. Its a shame it was 33% discount as i do not feel that was warranted but Eqtec will have a large amount of cash to invest quickly so we could be back to late 50s by end of day.

At the end of the day all the money being raised is being immediately converted into very high return projects. This price will fall a bit but in 3 months this will be far ahead of todays price on further project annoucements.

Its 5pm tomorrow deadline for price determination. All IPOs i can see take at least 3-5 days to get determined.

“The Offer Price is expected to be fixed by the Price Determination Agreement between the Joint Global Coordinators (for themselves and on behalf of the Underwriters) and the Company on the Price Determination Date. The Price Determination Date is expected to be on or around Tuesday, 7 July 2020 or such later date as the Company and the Joint Global Coordinators (for themselves and on behalf of the Underwriters) may agree which shall, in any event, not be later than Friday, 10 July 2020. If, for whatever reason, the Joint Global Coordinators (for themselves and on behalf of the Underwriters) and the Company are unable to reach an agreement on the Offer Price at or before 5:00 p.m. on Friday, 10 July 2020, the Global Offering will not proceed and will lapse. In such event, the Company will issue an announcement to be published on the Stock Exchange’s website at www.hkexnews.hk and the Company’s website at www.zkty.com.cn.
The Company expects to announce the final Offer Price, the level of indication of interest in the International Placing, the level of applications in the Hong Kong Public Offering and the basis of allocation of Hong Kong Offer Shares on the website of the Company at http://www.zkty.com.cn and the website of the Stock Exchange at www.hkexnews.hk on or before Tuesday, 14 July 2020.”

This latest news article, from the perhaps less than independent newspaper, paints a rosy picture of HK IPOs so could have caught a perfect storm to reboot CNEL

https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3092258/hong-kong-stocks-mixed-market-bulls-weigh-ipo-outlook-fallout

I suspect many trading platforms will have stopped trading. HSBC only allows to sell now but that will probably end today. Therefore the option to buy tomorrow is probably not possible for most even if the price announcement is far ahead of the current price. we will see.

It does seem odd that professional traders have not been buying up the forced sellers but at the same time until there is confirmation on admittance and the price on HK there is not actually a real arbitrage situation. If the move is confirmed tomorrow hopefully then you might then expect traders to buy because in 4 business days time they will be listed for more and that would seem logical so tomorrow if the price is announced this should spike much higher, not least the MMs we reprice. My instincts many months ago was that the price would fall between the prospectus and the move because of all the small and forced sellers but did actually expect the price to hold because i also thought other investors from HK would buy them up at the discount or even for CNEL itself to acquire shares. Little of that appears to have happened so it does make you think about the BOD as surely the price in the UK should have been closer to the prospectus price in HK so that the latter investors see fair value. Personally if i was in HK and could see i could buy in the UK for half price why would i invest at twice the price? The answer is probably that larege investors know they cannot buy any meaningful shares on AIM and this is the only way to buy serious shares. Therefore i hope the BOD had already secured cornerstone investors already at the bottom end of the spectrum and then other investors would bid that up. However given all the costs involved i did think the BOD would have some methods at its disposal to narrow the gap but at the same time it would have been seen as insider dealing so can also see why the share price has gone lower because the only buyers and sellers are pis. on a more positive note once we get confirmation tomorrow and price does anyone have an idea when the first trading update will be as that will be a key date for the calendar.

The way i see it if your an explorer like Kefi then as gold price rises nothing happens but when gold prices fall you are punished :) Seems to me only when you are a confirmed producer does the gold price really have an impact. However those explorers about to confirm becoming a producer have most potential upside. If Kefi can bring home the bacon on TK this will explode. Hawiah will come first as the starter but both will set Kefi off. In some ways i am hoping it will not be a while as i am awaiting some more funds and hoping to get in before take off.

There are so many positive signs in the Sleep and mattress market, a lot like bike sales, and the market has priced Eve Sleep to fail. With £7.5m net cash in the bank accounts Eve is valued at less than £3m today. Take cash out and we are worth minus £3.5m. For a business with a formidable brand and one that had a "good" may i hope the next RNS will surprise and delight and there is no reason to expect a re-rate and a change it fortunes. Cashburn was negligible in last RNS so we have plenty of cash to last for at least 18 months. Something tells me that Eve Sleep might wake up on the 22nd July.

i suspect Kefi might have brokered Rab Capital and possibly Spreadex to sell a stake as for Rab to increase its stake and Spreadex to reduce it that would be the obvious answer. There is simply not enough trading on LSE historically for that sort of number of shares to be traded.

i am only guessing but i watched this short clip on Spreadex and it does imply they often take the counterparty risk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNXwhRCBR8U
and if they do they have a very big reason to manipulate the price and in particular the spread and those small trades we see i think are Spreadex buying and selling to itself and moving the spread and price around to their benefit, while at the same time generating a little income on the spread for those that actually need to sell while some muppet CFD investor on the hook for a big amount of money is being rinsed :) Anyway never seen a share act the way Kefi has over the last few months and if you compare to normal Level2 information it is very different. if you want to get a leveraged position against Kefi you know where to go.

TOday so far there has been £6.6k of buys and 6.7k sell. Firstly this is now tiny amounts being traded so more in line with idea that those forced to sell are probably out. However MMs are taking full advantage of the 11% spread and now offering only 5.5 BID. If topmoney is right and allotment update will happen tomorrow then i hope that settles the nerves. I did look through other recent IPOs on HK and all of them for at least 3 days after the closing date so that is normal and all the ones i looked at were "substantially oversubscribed". that might be just because those getting allotment results were those that were successful but certainly it would be nice if tomorrow we get the allotment outcome.

As to Spreadex i have raised more than once but essentially its a CFD platform but allows you to short or go long on Kefi. i was quite surprised given Kefi minerals was so small and illiquid to even consider you could create a CFD market.
https://www.spreadex.com/financials/shares/kefi-minerals-kefi.l/NLIQ-QbHVW

Therefore individuals do not own shares on this platform and allows outright leverage. However to make that work someone has to be the counterparty. i am not sure exactly but spreadex clearly took a big stake in Kefi in the past that presumably was due to trading activity on its platform. This might have been two traders betting against one another or potentially Spreadex became the counterparty. What we have seen over last month is Spreadex reducing its holding though a series of RNS and price has started to tick up. I have been monitoring Level 2 for 3 months and the ASK was almost always around 1p or less where i could see millions and millions of shares but the spread was insane, perhaps 15% so once you bought in you would hope you did not need to sell for a while as it was so wide. just 2 months ago you could buy 40m shares below 1p and the stock price would not even blink. once the shares were gone at 1p Spreadex would park millions more at 1p or less. forced sellers had to make do with the crazy 15% spread. This went on for an extended time so maybe Spreadex partly covers their hedge by trading the spread and pocketing 15% everytime someone sells as that is a big spread. Spreadex was selling down its position and was happy to offload huge volumes of shares. Today that is not quite the case although there is definitely continued manipulation. I think all of the small share trades we are seeing are Spreadex related as they seem to be ahead of the MMs on BID and ASK (although they are not clearly labelled like MMs). Therefore at the moment all the small trades we see are actually spreadex buying and selling to itself as only they can do that with no costs and they can walk the share price up and down a little within the 15% spread as we see daily. i have seen so many loss making trades but if you are buying and selling to yourself there is no loss. Yesterday 1.3 ASK and few hours later 1m shares offered at 1.15 to bring ASK down. The normal MMs are not in the picture. Spreadex with huge numbers of shares are able to block the share price from moving up whenever they want but i am more than happy to take it off their hands as i think while Kefi was a great short 3-9 months ago i think they will be one of the biggest risers over the next 12 months and i am expecting at least 5X in that time frame. if anyone is shorting Kefi now they are in for a big surprise but Spreadex still have over 4% so that is still a massive amount of shares.

for example, and this is probably typical of many brokers, I needed to let HSBC know by 5pm today if i wanted to sell the shares as the last day of dealing according to HSBC terms was expected to be 8th July. I have since tranferred by holding to Interactive Brokers as they offer full online trading.