Member Info for Simms45

Certainly a fair point that the future is not clear to any business as furlough comes to an end but there are so many positives for Eve that have happened in last 6 months from breakeven in Q4 and strong since this point, falling burn rate, positive marketing contribution for last 8 months (brilliant), competitors exiting market, Emma reported 120% increase in sales, Woodford 31% firesale of shares out ..... and did i mention Eve is valued at a total market cap of £3.5m with £7.5m of cash in the bank so worth negative £3.5m. While no one really knows the future of employment you can work with what is known, add in market data and competitor analysis as some excellent posters are doing, and know deep down that even if Eve doubles to 2.5p we have a market cap of 0 once cash is removed and company has been at least at breakeven since Q4.i am happy to be negative on companies as i look at hundreds in detail and could write essays on why i would not invest. Eve is in my 1% drawer of going to come good and by that i consider doubling my investment as good and that gets us to 0 market capitalisation.

Kefi has only just started to roll. Fair play to those who try and ride the ebbs and flow but Kefi is £30m market Cap and while Harry has has a pasting over the years he might well be able to crawl out of his bunker with a smug “told you so” in the not too distant future. His words were back a few months ago on a Q&A words to effect “Tulu Kapu is a 10 bagger and double again for Saudi” those were the words of the CEO but if you read SP Angels report on Kefi and do some digging you will see just how exciting Kefi really is. For example Kefi financing package will not require further dilution as $50m of historic investment is included as our equity on the whole deal alongside other investors putting in the cash. Seriously that is genius if it happens. Probably with Saudi doing so well we might need a top up in October but things are looking pleasantly positive as we move along and the partner in Saudi is very happy to find the whole enchilada if Kefi is willing to take a smaller stake so Kefi has great agility to decide but Many positive news to come over summer.

Straight to top of leaders board and the uncoiling of the spring is only just starting. Barely valued at £30m but have at least a $2.6bn copper mine and a $2bn gold mine that is months from full finance. Kefi is set to explode as things progress.

Just gets bigger and bigger and barely touched the depth yet so we have the nother lode with maiden jorc to confirm in August

“At current copper prices, it is notable that the in-situ value of Hawiah is already likely to be more than US$2.5 billion."

This is probably a more salient article on mattress sales for key competitor Emma and a good sense of the market :

https://www.rli.uk.com/revenue-jumps-by-120-per-cent-for-emma-the-sleep-company/

The other small point is Woodford starting selling down his 31% stake in Eve from June 2019 onwards and only completed the full firesale when it sold its last 11.6% stake on 8 April 2020 so very recent and there will be a share overhang as some of that firesale will have been bought by a intermediary whose job is to trickle sell stock and hence the flatline in share price since. the share price fell from around 6.5p to about 1.3p in that period and progress was being made to turnaround company, a key question to ask if Woodford had not sold his stake what would share price be today? I would hazard a guess it would have flatlined at 6p until confirmation of turnaround news. Therefore this is a technical factor and see no reason that if confirmed turnaround and positive forward note this should not wander back to 4-6p once overhang is cleared from secondary sellers who took up some of that stock. Today we are at a totally unhinged market valuation for the business and i am sure Simba and Eve and relooking at that merger/takeover as they are both individually weaker than Emma. Emma is the leader today but Eve Sleep have ambitions and are chipping away.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2020/02/emma-mattress-annual-sales-skyrockets-86/

Not long to see how things go and sense more buying activity in the leadup.

In simplest terms start with Q4 at breakeven and work forward with the words like “improving” and “strong” and you know worst case scaenario is “break even” but i suggest based on Emma large sales growth we will do likewise.

CEO only just joined and wants to own the turnaround herself and not be seen as her pedecessor. I think everyone should agreed that £3.5m market cap for Eve with £7.5m in the kitty and Q4 was breakeven Is a good place to start as an investor. Throw in “strong demand” for premium high margin mattresses and you are lining up nicely

certainly a baptism of fire IPO. it looks they halted share trading between 12-1 as there is no volume. they do not appear to allow ability to see individual trades on HKEX as that is always useful. you can export the volume by minute etc and so on that has some bearing on the vast scale of selling. first 20 minutes below but certainly not as useful as specific trade values. within 1st minute around £600k of shares changed hands. The share will recover and hopefully CNEL will be now working plans for updates as local chinese investors will be absolutely spitting fury at what has gone on but some might recover their composure and buy in tomorrrow if they learn it was probably just a single or few big sellers and not something more suspicious like bad news. still what a way to start.

Time Last Traded Price Volume
2020/07/15 09:30 1.35 4176000
2020/07/15 09:31 1.3 2504000
2020/07/15 09:32 1.23 1520000
2020/07/15 09:33 1.15 2952000
2020/07/15 09:34 1.11 1432000
2020/07/15 09:35 1.14 1540000
2020/07/15 09:36 1.14 1028000
2020/07/15 09:37 1.14 976000
2020/07/15 09:38 1.14 600000
2020/07/15 09:39 1.15 688000
2020/07/15 09:40 1.13 388000
2020/07/15 09:41 1.07 1260000
2020/07/15 09:42 1.03 1224000
2020/07/15 09:43 1.02 1356000
2020/07/15 09:44 0.95 1376000
2020/07/15 09:45 0.92 1388000
2020/07/15 09:46 0.95 1672000
2020/07/15 09:47 0.93 600000
2020/07/15 09:48 0.93 1096000
2020/07/15 09:49 0.92 524000
2020/07/15 09:50 0.91 512000

The Hawiah maiden resource RNS should be due anytime soon but no later than the end of the month imo. That will certainly assist and would not underestimate the the name change to add Copper and Gold as it will also mean those investors looking for gold and copper explorers and producers on LSE will find Kefi a lot quicker. Personally i think it is
a very smart move as armchair investors will just search for Gold and pick a company to invest in and picking Kefi could be a good choice. Certainly it was under my radar until it stood out like a sore thump in the Gold mining SP Angels report. could be any day now and then we should get a mining finance update whenever practical but latest for that would be September but i am sure Harry is well aware just how important it is to close that financing asap as time is the enemy.

if correct I am surprised the loan conversion did not have a lockin as this is the worst situation you can get for an IPO and BOD are normally very wary of making sure such linked parties do not unload in the first 5 minutes. certainly the company will be badly tarnished. i am not entirely convinced it was Double River but only consolation is that whoever it was is out and we can hope the trading statements are positive and eventually renews investor interest as we are back to a PE of about 5 and a forward PE of probably 3 but dont quote me on that.

this was key paragraph from 29th May is as follows so we can only take that last 2 weeks of March were disrupted, and that could mean operationally but fair to say maybe sales were affected but April and May have improved and most importantly high value mattresses and high margin pillows etc have increased, not the low end of the market that is very low margin. So factoring in Q4 breakeven and do some filling in the gaps to see where things might be. not saying we are booming as clearly we have strong competition but even if we show 50% of the growth Emma has seen we will be doing very well, especially as alluded we are selling well in the "premium" mattresses, coded word for higher margin.

"overall revenues are in-line with the Board's expectations, with improving trading in April continuing into May, after the disruption of the initial lock-down period from the middle of March. Sales of eve's award winning premium mattress range and bedframes continue to exhibit strong demand, and the Company has experienced an increase in sales of its pillows, bedding, toppers and single mattresses as households adapt to life in lockdown. Most importantly, with the focus on moving to profit and cash generation, the Company has achieved a positive marketing contribution for the Period. eve has now delivered a positive marketing contribution for the eight month period commencing September 2019.

The woodford hangover cannot be understated on psychology of investors. 30% dumped in 6 months is disastrous and took 90% off the share price and that is utterly soul destroying for long-term investors. i have been in many companies with forced sellers and it can take 6 months after the last share is sold for NEW investors to realise that the company is not bust as the valuation today would suggest. People think something else is wrong as how can a company be worth so little, there must be something else. Therefore everyone waits actual confirmation. The merger talks ended that knocked confidence but that could happen again as the market needs to continue to consolidate. Q4 Eve broke even but was this a fluke ? if we know Q1-3 got better and better you must be sensing where we are going. however it is not until this is confirmed and the PR machine whirs into action will this get picked up. Been in too many companies where you simply recognise the valuation of the company is simply not correct. If i could i would love to buy Eve for £3.5m, knowing i have £7.5m in the bank so even on the basics you can see that the company is priced incorrectly. if i was long-term investor i would dyor but probably average down as the change will be quite quick when it comes.

Would not have liked to be the CEO banging the gong and then watching within 5 minutes 10m shares dumped on the market all at once and then for share to tank almost 50% in minutes. That is very painful for a Chinese CEO who must have talked to a lot of investors to get them to invest at 10.8 HK and he would have lost a lot of face today, when it should have been something more memorable. The CEO might well need to bring forward news and perhaps it is time he looked at a maiden dividend as profits are so high, although i still see they are going for growth so thats unlikely. Fortunately CNEL are strong in all key fundamental metrics and that will shine through eventually. the bod also need to reflect on their inaction to transition from AIM better, perhaps buying back stock from shareholders or keeping a dual listing for a while to make the transition smoother. The result of the massive difference between the UK and the poor transition led to the massive sell off by those UK investors organised to exit. In retrospect we should have all seen it coming. Hopefully the months will recover the position on positive news and Q1 results but there will undoubtedly now be a bigger overhang.

Price climbing so 75 cents now. I expect a good rebound as locals will sense a good deal and 9.5 times oversubscribed so given all investors got 10% of what they asked for right about now they might see they can average down. Market in HK will close soon so i think the rise back up is now on as that whale seller has moved on hopefully. Be personally surprised in Double River as they would be more sophisticated sellers. This was i have 10m shares (dump) and market was swamped.

In my experience of investing in exactly these type of bombed out companies news had to come stamped on headed notepaper. Past investors are jaded and even though last rns said “good may” that is circumstantial. Also bigger interest is the inflection point and i think we will be at that point. we will find out but looking at risk/reward profile market is betting bust and im betting with £7.5m cash it has plenty of runway and every market signal had turned green for Eve. However Emma is doing really well so Eve needs to keep pace and ensure a strong market position.

Although its hard to see but roughly 14m shares traded in first 5 minutes. Most would have been sells so that is about £1.1m so that is extraordinary. Seller was very committed and it can only be a UK investor as locals would unlikely sell at a loss as thats an odd trade. feel sorry for company who have had rug pulled. however i strongly expect a decent climb because the resistance in HK will now now be closer to placing price of 98 cents, although some buyers will have bought at lows but volume since has been low. those UK pis will either hold or sell up so just have to wait for overhang to go and hope news is strong.

Throw in trump news today and all we can now hope for is profitable trading update. If you think about MMs and others more organised investors and know liquidity is not dissimilar to UK then dropping literally millions of pounds of shares at once Can only have one outcome. It was really quite sad to see but those volumes are exceptional. Share will surely rise going forward as volumes are far lower but company must be annoyed as it convinced a lot of new chinese investors to invest at double the price and Cnel is now on home turf.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/china-vows-retaliation-hong-kong-sanctions-200715033941380.html

slightly frustrating to see someone dump so many shares at the opening bell but we are down to about equivalent of 7p. I guess only to be expected as that was the arbitrage profit but shame for a promising company to be dumped on the first day but hopefully news will be coming around the corner.

when a company is effectively valued to go bust, as Eve is, any news i would say to the opposite will have a positive impact. Market cap today is a ridiculously low £3.5m, about same as nice semi in central London, but we have £7.5m cash so we have a negative market cap. if the market senses the chances of a profit and sustain that over the future Eve will get a proper re-rate. Most signals i see are pointing to a good update and future.

As far as i am aware where your broker is organising a hard copy certificate i am aware there are brokers who can deal with that, although i mislaid the name as i asked HSBC before i moved my position to Interactive Brokers. However it is not AJ Bell and most of the known online brokers as i asked a few if they could handle that back in the day i found HSBC UK could not hold the shares themselves and i needed to transfer out. AJ Bell only deal electronically and appear not able to handle hard copies. probably a little bit of research is needed. i think Silver Brick was mentioned by Richard Bennett as a broker directly in HK that could handle this but i am sure there are some closer to home in the UK.