Member Info for Simms45

another interesting point that i saw on WHO is they state
"Based on currently available information, WHO does not recommend any restriction of travel or trade. Standard recommendations to prevent infection spread for travellers in or from affected areas include regular hand washing, covering mouth and nose when coughing and sneezing, and avoiding close contact with anyone showing symptoms of respiratory illness."http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov

so this is largely driven by countries and as soon as they have capacity to manage and ensure no bad photo opportunities they will revert the lockdown. if WHO recommend no travel restrictions then this will be referred to by governments as a source for their own reversal i suspect.

Remember most governments, including the US yesterday, according to the CDC, have changed their definition of what is a Covid 19 deaths. This is very important to keep track of. Now anyone dying that had any related symptoms to Covid 19 will be registered on the death certificate "with" Covid 19. There is no need for Covid 19 to be the reason for the death or any specific test and only that some symptom was shown prior. Also most new figures in the UK and France now include deaths in nursing homes that explains the jump yesterday. Also bear in mind the tests provided I understand are not able to exactly test for Covid 19 but tests for any of the 19 Corona Viruses as they share 99% of the same DNA although most likely it is Covid 19 as that is this particular strain afters SARs/MERs. Some suspicious people might think this 'slight of hand" to definitions is the result of governments clamouring to be in a position to defend the lockdown and show how many lives they saved, albeit countries like Sweden largely did nothing and they have lower mortality than the UK but again Sweden cites they have capacity to handle their stress that UK was not. German business are now suing the German government as they believe the government over-reacted and had capacity and why France and Italy were shipping patients to this country. There are so many interesting moving of goalposts each day and building up a picture i think helps position how quickly lockdown reversal might come about. dyor.

The lockdown was ONLY to reduce the stress on the NHS because at the time they did not have the facilities for ventilators and so forth. The government once they feel they have adequate capacity will start to remove restrictions. This is a very important distinction. We also need to bear in mind Italy and Spain are now desperate to get things ready as tourism is a huge part of their economies. Sure there will be restrictions and little bits of paper saying you tested fine for antibodies or confirming you have not had any temperature in last 7 days but i think people might be surprised that things will move faster now every country in the world has bought 1000s of overpriced ventilators, that will probably never be needed. The projections of 500k deaths quickly changed to 20k and most recently 8k. The nightingale hospital will almost certainly be empty unless the government sense a bad photo opportunity and divert some people to this facility. I think its fair to read between the lines on where this is going given suicides and other social impacts on children are rising by the day and the economic impacts are obvious. The media only need to start turning the cameras and government will skip to their merry tune. Anyway i suspect flights will be operational from July/August and potentially sooner but in regards to IAG if they have £9.5bn cash and valued today at £5bn then i suggest that they are not going to burn through 4.5bn of that cash before planes start flying and i think IAG has some value over and above its cash.

i think number of Coronavirus related deaths are dropping in Europe and that the market can see this is not rising anymore. This might mean the government and those around Europe are in a better position to co-ordinate a response as you can see that Italy and Spain are falling well day on day and Spain could come out of this earlier than others. This will bode well for IAG. the key here is will IAG will grounded for 1/2/3/4 months. The current share price is almost saying 4 months so every positive change to that has a leveraged impact on IAG. The day any government mentions removing some restrictions, and i expect these to come in the next few weeks, will lead to rises for IAG etc. Also the government, while not saying it out loud, are going to need to look carefully at the cure being more damaging than the disease. Suicides are rising and the long-term suffering of those caught with no income will create social issues that are greater than the cost and bear in mind the main reason for all this issue was not to save lives but actually to make sure we do not over burden the NHS and have all the bad images that Italy had. this is as much about the government saving face. personally i think news coming out over next 2 weeks will be more upbeat than downbeat and hence. i personally think now we have seen the bottom.

Also not sure if i have ever seen the spread being quite as wide as today at 3p. Could be decent leg up back to the 30s very soon.

Ok. Thats good to know if around March was official starting point as he made a point of mentioning 10 months but sort of failed to state what date if started from. As i understand public consultation went well so would perhaps this month.

In the recent update MC said 10 months permitting process and i understand we had the public consultation so more a matter of waiting. However as i understand we only started the process in November or so. Does this mean a good wait longer?

Worth keeping an eye on daily “total deaths” at ONS as its part of the picture to help spot l&g and wider stock market possible rebound if total deaths actually diverge from yearly average.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2f2020/publishedweek122020.xlsx

Its lagging sadly but possible expectation is if total deaths do not diverge it would point to large numbers of flu deaths being included in covid19 deaths. daily deaths in uk average 1750 a day and a good proportion are traditionally flu related. Anyway dyor.

Does feel like pressure is building regardless of reality. Its the new martial law that is creeping in using the media to whip up consensus and companies feel compelled to follow. Its as if one person suffers, so must someone else. its a sad race to the bottom to make sure everyone suffers. If insurers can not all get drawn into this today if we have a week or more of “green shoots” this might pass. Evening standard joining in the chorus today https://www.standard.co.uk/business/savers-hurt-as-banks-halt-dividends-are-insurers-next-a4403831.html.

BOE has not according to my searches applied pressure to insurers to folllow UK banks but there might be more pressure once the UK bank dividend suspension is digested. Certainly the market is looking shaky as things look further and further away from being settled. Could be next downturn as so many businesses will collapse over coming 2-3 months and banks are first in line but any insurers linked to unemployment might well have substantial payouts. I suspect more will be reported soon by L &G regarding specific and size of exposures to different claims as they must now have imformation to share.

Useful information. Bought some L&G shares last week but i was sure a few skeletons lurked as L&G was well sold and the question will be the amount of claims on their insurance for inemployment and sickness cover or if claimants will instead get from the government or both. Could be a lot of money potentially and odd this was never brought up by CEO when he was playing down Coronavirus some weeks ago.

I think it works out to be about £1bn per death so far for the global economy in government subsidies and grants but who is counting. Odd how nobody appears to bat an eyelid when roughly 500k a year globally die of flu complications and pneumonia. Anyway back to Condor hopefully a little longer to get some green lights on permits and move forwards. i think in terms of Calibre closing its mine i was slightly surprised given there is no safety net at all in Nicaragua for workers but as i understand we have 3 months to get organised for any potential toll deal but with Nicargua Mining as a major shareholder i suspect multiple options are being explored and more will be announced when the time comes.

I am looking carefully to invest in Legal and General. I am struggling to understand any specific insurance L&G provides that will be an outsize payment? For example travel insurance will presumably payout to some but i suspect will not be widespread,. They do not appear to cover business interruption. i know insurance sales will stall but lets call it 3 months. life insurance look a possible downside but so far numbers are tiny in the grander scheme of things and flipside annuities would offset. Is L&G exposed heavily to the stock market? While i am expecting a whole range of companies to pull dividends i am not sure L&G will be one of them. Anyone bearish on L&G would like to hear your views covering where exposure is outsized. Given part nationalisation of airlines and probably many others over the coming month i cant see why the market has overly pushed down the price so keen to understand.

B2gold jumped 20% today along with 10% for calibre. Condor might catch a bit of that if we are lucky.

yes. its very confident but also bear in mind these investors are holding until the day this company is bought out, probably by Rio Tinto or someone else in 12-18 months once all the little details are ironed out. while its nice to see a paper profit today they know they cannot exit because of the volume issue and i am sure for most to stick this through until the payday. IFC tried to exit 12 months ago and took them 9 months and a real loss of at least 70% so not sure they are textbook. given 10% spread not also good to play the in and out game as today you can pay much more exciting games elsewhere.

Bear in mind the person, Jim Mellon maybe, would prefer to pump £155k directly into the coffers of Condor so it will be most likely him or a fund. While the price is lower in the market the stock probably is not and it misses the point and even if they wanted go buy 500k of stock it would probably be at a price above 31p as the buying would increase the price. Bear in mind literally £10k of buying or selling appears to move this stock up and down. Imagine what £155k would do.

The price on lse is wrong as the mid price is more like 27p. Been trying to buy. Lets see what tomorrow brings and hope MC keeps any news back until all this craziness is over. Well done to anyone who got a few sub 25p. have to admit banning all flights from Europe was a pretty odd move but perhaps he had a short position he wanted to maximise today.

buy when others are fearful springs to mind :)

And to think it all started with probably a single chinese tucking into a nice bat soup and 3 months later trillions wiped of the global stock market. Most expensive bat soup. Make the most of the dips.

Most stocks are now down nearly 40-50% over last 4 weeks so anyone long and leveraged are in the deep quagmire. So Condor doing rather well and great opportunity to top up. Odd that in China they are saying they are nearly over the worst and apparently now single digit infections (pinch of salt territory) Given its 1.4bn population they had barely 100k infected so that is .0007% and thats just infection! Something tells me knee kerk into teeth has taken hold and get your timing right on the turn and i am sure would turn out well but over leveraged investors are now into deleverage on a massive scale.